Three YEPS and three NOPES

[Dick Allen]

Balta: "Andy Wilkins can be a part time player with an .800+ OPS."

Balta: "Victor Martinez is not a great hitter because of his career .848 OPS."

There are 6 players, including Victor, that have at least a .306/.373./848 line during the 2014 season.

[Dam8610]

.306/.373/.848 for his career. An average hitter this year is .251/.314/.701. I think he is a bit better than above average. He is a great hitter. His career split line and Magglio's career split line are almost identical.

 

Magglio Ordonez Age 36 Season Slash Line: .303/.378/.852

Magglio Ordonez Age 37 Season Slash Line: .255/.303/.634

Magglio Ordonez Age 38 Season Slash Line: Not Available

 

I'm sensing a trend here.

[shysocks]

I don't see Martinez getting much more than 3/$45M. That's the exact contract Beltran got at basically the same age.

 

If so, that's a no-brainer for us IMO. I'm perfectly aware that's he not going to repeat his current season and there is some chance he suddenly falls off a cliff, but he's such smart/pure hitter that I think he's got a good shot of remaining well above-average with the bat over the next three years.

 

A 1-2-3 of Eaton-Semien-Martinez would make Abreu even more dangerous.

Beltran was two years removed from anything resembling a season like the one Victor is having now. I agree that signing him at that price would be a good call. And when it's that easy, you can bet he'll get more money.

 

Also, notice how Beltran had his worst season ever this year. The risks of signing a player that old are very real, guys.

[Dick Allen]

Magglio Ordonez Age 36 Season Slash Line: .303/.378/.852

Magglio Ordonez Age 37 Season Slash Line: .255/.303/.634

Magglio Ordonez Age 38 Season Slash Line: Not Available

 

I'm sensing a trend here.

Are you. Check out some of the names I mentioned earlier in the thread. To say every ages the same way is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. If Victor has some sort of condition that would lead one to believe he cannot remain healthy for 3 seasons, then I would agree with you. But to say, Konerko fell apart after injury at 36, Maggs got hurt and dropped off a cliff at 36, therefore, everyone should drop off a cliff at 36 makes no sense. Look at Edgar Martinez's numbers. Look at Harold Baines' numbers. Look at Frank Thomas, Jim Thome....these guys were mostly DH's which is where Victor will mostly be. Show me the trend.

[Dick Allen]

Beltran was two years removed from anything resembling a season like the one Victor is having now. I agree that signing him at that price would be a good call. And when it's that easy, you can bet he'll get more money.

 

Also, notice how Beltran had his worst season ever this year. The risks of signing a player that old are very real, guys.

The White Sox signed Adam Dunn for his age 31 season. He had one of the worst seasons ever for anyone. Maybe due to risks, the Sox should only draft guys who will sign for slot or below or pick up guys on waivers.

[Chicago White Sox]

Beltran was two years removed from anything resembling a season like the one Victor is having now. I agree that signing him at that price would be a good call. And when it's that easy, you can bet he'll get more money.

 

Also, notice how Beltran had his worst season ever this year. The risks of signing a player that old are very real, guys.

If he's going to cost way more than I suggested then don't sign him. I'm just saying if the risk is limited to three years, I'm willing to give him $15M per and lose a 2nd round draft pick.

 

As I said before, it's possible he falls off a cliff, but so could any major league player. Adam Dunn was one of the most consistent players in major league history before we signed him. Do we just stop signing players over 30 years of age like Balta would do if he was GM? Hell no, you always take calculated risks if the reward can be significant. The offensive environment is way different today than it was a few years ago and Victor Martinez at 80% to 90% of his current production is still an impact bat. We have money to spend and a huge need for a left-handed bat. Keep Victor strictly at DH, give him a day off every couple of weeks and I'm feel pretty good about his odds of staying productive over the next three years.

 

What I find amusing is people are so risk adverse against signing older free agents, but would prefer to wait for this magical core to come up through the minors and fill all our remains holes. IMO, the biggest risk we can take right now is wait much longer to supplement Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Abreu, Eaton, & Garcia while they're still young, cheap, and healthy. Fills needs now as best you can and not waste the surplus value these guys are currently providing.

[Dam8610]

Are you. Check out some of the names I mentioned earlier in the thread. To say every ages the same way is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. If Victor has some sort of condition that would lead one to believe he cannot remain healthy for 3 seasons, then I would agree with you. But to say, Konerko fell apart after injury at 36, Maggs got hurt and dropped off a cliff at 36, therefore, everyone should drop off a cliff at 36 makes no sense. Look at Edgar Martinez's numbers. Look at Harold Baines' numbers. Look at Frank Thomas, Jim Thome....these guys were mostly DH's which is where Victor will mostly be. Show me the trend.

 

 

You mentioned 4 guys who are at least borderline for the Hall of Fame. Thank you for making my point that unless Victor Martinez becomes a Hall of Fame caliber player, the team who signs him for 3/$60 is going to regret it.

 

Also, please quit overexaggerating. No one is saying don't sign anyone over 30. Signing people over the age of 35 to huge contracts is a bad idea in general, which is and has been my point.

[Dam8610]

Your prime example for your point was an obvious steroid user. What's your point?

 

Paul Konerko was an obvious steroid user? How many examples do you need before you will acknowledge it's a trend?

Edited September 28, 2014 by Dam8610

[Balta1701]

If he's going to cost way more than I suggested then don't sign him. I'm just saying if the risk is limited to three years, I'm willing to give him $15M per and lose a 2nd round draft pick.

 

As I said before, it's possible he falls off a cliff, but so could any major league player. Adam Dunn was one of the most consistent players in major league history before we signed him. Do we just stop signing players over 30 years of age like Balta would do if he was GM? Hell no, you always take calculated risks if the reward can be significant. The offensive environment is way different today than it was a few years ago and Victor Martinez at 80% to 90% of his current production is still an impact bat. We have money to spend and a huge need for a left-handed bat. Keep Victor strictly at DH, give him a day off every couple of weeks and I'm feel pretty good about his odds of staying productive over the next three years.

 

What I find amusing is people are so risk adverse against signing older free agents, but would prefer to wait for this magical core to come up through the minors and fill all our remains holes. IMO, the biggest risk we can take right now is wait much longer to supplement Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Abreu, Eaton, & Garcia while they're still young, cheap, and healthy. Fills needs now as best you can and not waste the surplus value these guys are currently providing.

This isn't true.

 

My question is whether signing the guy over 30 is likely to put us over the top during the next season. From my impression of the current White Sox, this seems almost certainly to not be the case. We're going to be running a rookie out at 2b, Danks and a rookie and Noesi in the rotation, a completely reassembled bullpen again, and a bunch of other injury questions out there.

 

We need a helluva bunch of people to massively improve next year for a 37 year old DH to suddenly make a difference. We got the 8th best OPS in MLB out of our DH spot this year and a moderate upgrade to VMart isn't going to be a huge push from that. It's a small upgrade. If we're an 88 win team without Martinez, fine. Right now, we are no where close to that. Find me an all star caliber right fielder in a trade and a new closer and we're set and I'm ok to blow money on the DH spot to win next year.

 

If we're a 75 win team next year without Martinez, and we're going to sign him to a 3 year deal so that he can help us win next year, this makes no sense to me.

[Dick Allen]

This isn't true.

 

My question is whether signing the guy over 30 is likely to put us over the top during the next season. From my impression of the current White Sox, this seems almost certainly to not be the case. We're going to be running a rookie out at 2b, Danks and a rookie and Noesi in the rotation, a completely reassembled bullpen again, and a bunch of other injury questions out there.

 

We need a helluva bunch of people to massively improve next year for a 37 year old DH to suddenly make a difference. We got the 8th best OPS in MLB out of our DH spot this year and a moderate upgrade to VMart isn't going to be a huge push from that. It's a small upgrade. If we're an 88 win team without Martinez, fine. Right now, we are no where close to that. Find me an all star caliber right fielder in a trade and a new closer and we're set and I'm ok to blow money on the DH spot to win next year.

 

If we're a 75 win team next year without Martinez, and we're going to sign him to a 3 year deal so that he can help us win next year, this makes no sense to me.

He will be a 37 year old DH in 2016.

[Balta1701]

He will be a 37 year old DH in 2016.

Congrats. You've caught a minor error. You may now celebrate your 75 win, $100 million team.

[Dick Allen]

Congrats. You've caught a minor error. You may now celebrate your 75 win, $100 million team.

So in the same thread you falsely accuse me of exaggeration you now claim signing him bumps the Sox payroll up to $100 million and only will improve tithe team 1 or 2 games. LMAO

Edited September 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

So in the same thread you falsely accuse me of exaggeration you now claim signing him bumps the Sox payroll up to $100 million and only will improve tithe team 1 or 2 games. LMAO

Because I can't think of any team with a $120 million opening day payroll that won 63 games in recent memory.

[Dick Allen]

Because I can't think of any team with a $120 million opening day payroll that won 63 games in recent memory.

I have no idea how this fits in with yor posts or my replies, but I like it. Whenever someone stumps me or shows me I am totally wrong, I will just say "2013", giving you full credit of course.

[Dam8610]

raBBit, since I cannot quote your post, if you read the WHOLE thread, you'll notice that my FIRST example of an aging decline was Paul Konerko, and my SECOND example of an aging decline was Magglio Ordonez. To the naysayers, Konerko's decline was ONLY because of injury, and now according to you, Ordonez's decline was ONLY because he was a steroid user. So I am asking, how many good hitters do I need to find who fell off the face of the Earth performance wise before age 37 for you and all the other naysayers to believe that it's a trend? I think the fact that the first two I examined had an almost identical decline pattern speaks volumes on the issue, but I'm curious how many it would take to show that signing Martinez is a bad idea?

[Dick Allen]

raBBit, since I cannot quote your post, if you read the WHOLE thread, you'll notice that my FIRST example of an aging decline was Paul Konerko, and my SECOND example of an aging decline was Magglio Ordonez. To the naysayers, Konerko's decline was ONLY because of injury, and now according to you, Ordonez's decline was ONLY because he was a steroid user. So I am asking, how many good hitters do I need to find who fell off the face of the Earth performance wise before age 37 for you and all the other naysayers to believe that it's a trend? I think the fact that the first two I examined had an almost identical decline pattern speaks volumes on the issue, but I'm curious how many it would take to show that signing Martinez is a bad idea?

I would like you to show someome who had Martinez's career numbers, and a guy who lead the league in Ops and OBP as a 35 year old, who becomes as useless as you claim the next 3 seasons.

 

Paulie had wrist, back and hip problems, Maggs had a vertical fracture of his ankle, which supposedly is much mor of a problem than a horizontal fracture, and he wound up fractuiring again in the same spot,

 

His lifetime slash line is also almost identical to Paul Molitor, except Victor's slugging is a little higher. Check out his 36-38 seasons.

Edited September 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[shysocks]

If he's going to cost way more than I suggested then don't sign him. I'm just saying if the risk is limited to three years, I'm willing to give him $15M per and lose a 2nd round draft pick.

 

As I said before, it's possible he falls off a cliff, but so could any major league player. Adam Dunn was one of the most consistent players in major league history before we signed him. Do we just stop signing players over 30 years of age like Balta would do if he was GM? Hell no, you always take calculated risks if the reward can be significant. The offensive environment is way different today than it was a few years ago and Victor Martinez at 80% to 90% of his current production is still an impact bat. We have money to spend and a huge need for a left-handed bat. Keep Victor strictly at DH, give him a day off every couple of weeks and I'm feel pretty good about his odds of staying productive over the next three years.

 

What I find amusing is people are so risk adverse against signing older free agents, but would prefer to wait for this magical core to come up through the minors and fill all our remains holes. IMO, the biggest risk we can take right now is wait much longer to supplement Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Abreu, Eaton, & Garcia while they're still young, cheap, and healthy. Fills needs now as best you can and not waste the surplus value these guys are currently providing.

I don't even know if you can expect 80% of his current production. His OPS is 100 points above his previous career high. Then add in the aging curve.

 

I would not prefer to wait for the magical core; I want things to happen this offseason. I just don't think he's the right answer.

 

I would like you to show someome who had Martinez's career numbers, and a guy who lead the league in Ops and OBP as a 35 year old, who becomes as useless as you claim the next 3 seasons.

 

Paulie had wrist, back and hip problems, Maggs had a vertical fracture of his ankle, which supposedly is much mor of a problem than a horizontal fracture, and he wound up fractuiring again in the same spot,

 

His lifetime slash line is also almost identical to Paul Molitor, except Victor's slugging is a little higher. Check out his 36-38 seasons.

Can you find an example of a team that paid a guy that age after a career year and didn't regret it?

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't even know if you can expect 80% of his current production. His OPS is 100 points above his previous career high. Then add in the aging curve.

 

I would not prefer to wait for the magical core; I want things to happen this offseason. I just don't think he's the right answer.

Fair enough, I obviously understand the risks that would come with signing Martinez. I just think we need be aggressive this winter, because we don't know how long we'll have a healthy Sale/Quintana/Rodon to build our team around. We need to add as much as talent as possible this offseason without hurting the farm, which means taking some chances in free agency and/or acquiring a guy(s) with an overpaid contract.

[Dick Allen]

I don't even know if you can expect 80% of his current production. His OPS is 100 points above his previous career high. Then add in the aging curve.

 

I would not prefer to wait for the magical core; I want things to happen this offseason. I just don't think he's the right answer.

 

 

Can you find an example of a team that paid a guy that age after a career year and didn't regret it?

I am sure the Red Sox don't regret hanging on to Big Papi.

 

[VAfan]

The debate over V Mart is all about 1) his guessed cost, and 2) whether or how fast he will decline as a hitter.

 

What seems to be missing is any discussion of the overall fit and what the alternatives might be.

 

- The Sox MUST have lefty power. At the moment they have NONE.

- The Sox really need someone to slot behind Abreu, to keep him from being pitched around.

- The Sox would be better with fewer high strikeout guys in their lineup.

 

V Mart fills all of these needs. And what are the alternatives on the FA market?

 

For all those railing against V Mart, what other lefty free agent can we sign who is (1) younger, (2) just as consistent throughout his career, and (3) cheaper than V Mart? That player likely does not exist, or we would be debating him instead of V Mart.

 

*************

 

As much as I want the Sox to take Victor Martinez away from the Tigers, the more important area of the team the Sox need to fix is the bullpen. Martinez's bat isn't going to make a 15-game swing in the standings. Nor would adding an impact right hander. But fixing the bullpen could.

 

And if we DON'T fix the bullpen, it won't matter what else we do, because our bullpen will continue blowing games at an alarming rate.

[Dam8610]

The debate over V Mart is all about 1) his guessed cost, and 2) whether or how fast he will decline as a hitter.

 

What seems to be missing is any discussion of the overall fit and what the alternatives might be.

 

- The Sox MUST have lefty power. At the moment they have NONE.

- The Sox really need someone to slot behind Abreu, to keep him from being pitched around.

- The Sox would be better with fewer high strikeout guys in their lineup.

 

V Mart fills all of these needs. And what are the alternatives on the FA market?

 

For all those railing against V Mart, what other lefty free agent can we sign who is (1) younger, (2) just as consistent throughout his career, and (3) cheaper than V Mart? That player likely does not exist, or we would be debating him instead of V Mart.

 

*************

 

As much as I want the Sox to take Victor Martinez away from the Tigers, the more important area of the team the Sox need to fix is the bullpen. Martinez's bat isn't going to make a 15-game swing in the standings. Nor would adding an impact right hander. But fixing the bullpen could.

 

And if we DON'T fix the bullpen, it won't matter what else we do, because our bullpen will continue blowing games at an alarming rate.

 

Nick Markakis or Chase Headley seem like better solutions to me. Both will be cheaper, both are younger, and both have the ability to hit for power. Headley is actually perfect for this team because he could take the starts at 3B vs. LHP and start in LF vs. RHP. In fact, I'd rather the Sox use $25 million per year to sign those two than use $20 million per year to sign Martinez. It will pay a lot bigger dividends both short term and long term.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The debate over V Mart is all about 1) his guessed cost, and 2) whether or how fast he will decline as a hitter.

 

What seems to be missing is any discussion of the overall fit and what the alternatives might be.

 

- The Sox MUST have lefty power. At the moment they have NONE.

- The Sox really need someone to slot behind Abreu, to keep him from being pitched around.

- The Sox would be better with fewer high strikeout guys in their lineup.

 

V Mart fills all of these needs. And what are the alternatives on the FA market?

 

For all those railing against V Mart, what other lefty free agent can we sign who is (1) younger, (2) just as consistent throughout his career, and (3) cheaper than V Mart? That player likely does not exist, or we would be debating him instead of V Mart.

 

*************

 

As much as I want the Sox to take Victor Martinez away from the Tigers, the more important area of the team the Sox need to fix is the bullpen. Martinez's bat isn't going to make a 15-game swing in the standings. Nor would adding an impact right hander. But fixing the bullpen could.

 

And if we DON'T fix the bullpen, it won't matter what else we do, because our bullpen will continue blowing games at an alarming rate.

I addressed all those concerns in my multiple posts including mentions of Rasmus and Melky Cabrera while Markasis was brought up by another. I also brought up David Robertson for the pen and McCarthy for the rotation ( he seems to really like it in NY , he might stay there). Also discussed other bullpen options . Not sure if in this thread but definitely in the bullpen 2015 thread.

 

Doubt I'd pay big money for Robertson but I'd try like heck to pry Betances away from the Yankees .But I'm pretty damn sure Betances isn't going anywhere.

Edited September 28, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

I would like you to show someome who had Martinez's career numbers, and a guy who lead the league in Ops and OBP as a 35 year old, who becomes as useless as you claim the next 3 seasons.

 

Paulie had wrist, back and hip problems, Maggs had a vertical fracture of his ankle, which supposedly is much mor of a problem than a horizontal fracture, and he wound up fractuiring again in the same spot,

 

His lifetime slash line is also almost identical to Paul Molitor, except Victor's slugging is a little higher. Check out his 36-38 seasons.

 

Not only do you need to factor injury risk, but we also need to realize that Victor Martinez is having his BEST season by far. This is a career year. He's not likely to repeat even if he DOES stay healthy. You're suggesting that he's been a superstar his entire career, but he never approached this type of season at the plate even in his prime. He's a career 125 wRC+ -- which is very good, especially for a catcher -- but is at 167 this year. That's in a different ballpark altogether. Additionally, there are several outlier peripherals that are major red flags for regression. Chiefly: 6.6% K rate (compared to a career 10.4%) and a 16.0% HR/FB rate (compared to a career 10.7%).

 

All the performance risk that applies to Russell Martin's career year applies to Victor's. More injury risk applies to Victor thanks to age. Because half of Martin's value comes from defense (and most of that from aspects of defense that age well), he's MUCH more valuable even if they both regress 25%. And Victor is probably going to make more money, at least on an AAV basis, despite the fact that they were similarly valuable this year: Victor @ 4.4 fWAR, Martin at 5.2 fWAR.

 

They both come with risk, for sure, as any free agent does. But I definitely think Martinez comes with more, and it's primarily due to age.

[Eminor3rd]

I am sure the Red Sox don't regret hanging on to Big Papi.

 

Of course not -- one year contracts at a time.

[Dick Allen]

Not only do you need to factor injury risk, but we also need to realize that Victor Martinez is having his BEST season by far. This is a career year. He's not likely to repeat even if he DOES stay healthy. You're suggesting that he's been a superstar his entire career, but he never approached this type of season at the plate even in his prime. He's a career 125 wRC+ -- which is very good, especially for a catcher -- but is at 167 this year. That's in a different ballpark altogether. Additionally, there are several outlier peripherals that are major red flags for regression. Chiefly: 6.6% K rate (compared to a career 10.4%) and a 16.0% HR/FB rate (compared to a career 10.7%).

 

All the performance risk that applies to Russell Martin's career year applies to Victor's. More injury risk applies to Victor thanks to age. Because half of Martin's value comes from defense (and most of that from aspects of defense that age well), he's MUCH more valuable even if they both regress 25%. And Victor is probably going to make more money, at least on an AAV basis, despite the fact that they were similarly valuable this year: Victor @ 4.4 fWAR, Martin at 5.2 fWAR.

 

They both come with risk, for sure, as any free agent does. But I definitely think Martinez comes with more, and it's primarily due to age.

Victor is having his best season. Still he is a lifetime wRC+ 125 . If he has an average for him year that is a lot more help in a spot the team has nothing than if Wilson has an average year for him vs. Flowers.