Three YEPS and three NOPES

[Balta1701]

I guess I could see use there, but do they want to pay a part time player up to $3-4 mill per year? Those are pretty limited at bats for a guy that they might be able to find for 1/3 of that cost.

Worth noting that they're paying Gaby Sanchez $2.3 million to fill that role this year and he's probably on the outs after getting worse each of the last couple years.

[Eminor3rd]

This is more "pie in the sky" than usual for me, but what about Jay Bruce?

 

Reasoning: Reds are looking like a disaster now and are expected to start a rebuild, beginning with unloading their pending FA starters. Bruce is under contract, but he still costs a significant amount of money and is coming off a terrible year. So he could be available. Why would we want him? He is one year removed from being good and is still currently left-handed. He's a good defender. He is under contract for two more years at $12m per year with an option on the end. I think 2/24 is more in line with the risk I'd be willing to take on a NOW type of bat, and if it worked out, we could extend him or just let him go to free agency.

 

What would he cost? Tough to say. He obviously has upside and a good track record, but holy crap did he have a terrible, terrible year in 2014. How much did that sink him? I think I'd be willing to send a mid-top ten type of prospect (Chris Beck?) along with a flier or two and throw in Viciedo for good measure if they want him. I don't know if that would get it done or get me laughed off the phone, honestly. I mean he was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2014, lol.

[Dick Allen]

One problem the White Sox may have acquiring LH hitters is Boston is in the same boat, and they usually spend a little more cash and have a few more desireable prospects at the higher levels.

 

In other words, there probably won't be a bargain to be had unless they land a breakout guy.

[caulfield12]

One problem the White Sox may have acquiring LH hitters is Boston is in the same boat, and they usually spend a little more cash and have a few more desireable prospects at the higher levels.

 

In other words, there probably won't be a bargain to be had unless they land a breakout guy.

 

 

If Boston throws a lot of money at Sandoval and/or Hanley Ramirez, that will impact things as well.

 

Mookie Betts is currently their best trade piece, along with their minor league pitching depth (Ranaudo/De La Rosa/Workman, etc.) and Swihart/Vasquez...also depends on whether they go after Lester to rebuild their rotation in one offseason.

 

Their "experienced" trade pieces, guys like Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley, Jr., are so far down in value right now they might have no choice but to hold onto them. They've got Cespedes, Victorino (if healthy), Pedroia, Napoli and Ortiz as their core for one more run, and I would imagine they're not close to giving up on Bogaerts despite his terrible half-season.

[Vance Law]

What would the Sox give the Pirates? That's a team that values its young assets very highly. He also strikes out a fair amount and he was banged up this year. It also took a few tries for him to find success in AAA. Frankly, I'm not sure how much of a better option he is than Jordan Danks or Andy Wilkins from the left side of the plate. Are you willing to give up Chris Beck or Tyler Danish for him? Because that's what it might cost.

 

Partly playing devil's advocate, partly playing realist. I like Lambo but I'm not sure he is a guy that should be on the Sox radar. I would probably take him for Viciedo, but why would the Pirates want Viciedo?

To be honest I don't know what it would take to get him. But either he is blocked, or the Pirates pretty much need to unload Alvarez and Davis. He was moved primarily to 1B because he was blocked by their outfield. Hit 32 homers in the minors in 2013, .920 plus OPS the last 2 years, and what he has over Wilkins is he plays the outfield. I'd think he would come cheaper than Brandon Belt who some have suggested moving back to OF.

 

Could be the Pirates plan to keep him and get rid of Alvarez and Davis to save money. Could be we don't match up with anything for them trade wise. With LF and DH available, he seems like the kind of left-handed OF power bat we could use.

[southsider2k5]

To be honest I don't know what it would take to get him. But either he is blocked, or the Pirates pretty much need to unload Alvarez and Davis. He was moved primarily to 1B because he was blocked by their outfield. Hit 32 homers in the minors in 2013, .920 plus OPS the last 2 years, and what he has over Wilkins is he plays the outfield. I'd think he would come cheaper than Brandon Belt who some have suggested moving back to OF.

 

Could be the Pirates plan to keep him and get rid of Alvarez and Davis to save money. Could be we don't match up with anything for them trade wise. With LF and DH available, he seems like the kind of left-handed OF power bat we could use.

 

If the Sox were interested in picking up part of his contract, I could see Pittsburgh being a team that would take a chance on John Danks. They have had some success in taking other teams rejects with big contracts, and turning them into servicable parts, while getting some subsidies for those deals. They have been really good at hitting the reclamation heap in general.

[Chicago White Sox]

This is more "pie in the sky" than usual for me, but what about Jay Bruce?

 

Reasoning: Reds are looking like a disaster now and are expected to start a rebuild, beginning with unloading their pending FA starters. Bruce is under contract, but he still costs a significant amount of money and is coming off a terrible year. So he could be available. Why would we want him? He is one year removed from being good and is still currently left-handed. He's a good defender. He is under contract for two more years at $12m per year with an option on the end. I think 2/24 is more in line with the risk I'd be willing to take on a NOW type of bat, and if it worked out, we could extend him or just let him go to free agency.

 

What would he cost? Tough to say. He obviously has upside and a good track record, but holy crap did he have a terrible, terrible year in 2014. How much did that sink him? I think I'd be willing to send a mid-top ten type of prospect (Chris Beck?) along with a flier or two and throw in Viciedo for good measure if they want him. I don't know if that would get it done or get me laughed off the phone, honestly. I mean he was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2014, lol.

Chris Beck for Jay Bruce?? Walt Jocketty might actually did from laughter from that offer.

 

Having said that, I would love to target Bruce and would easily give up several prospects in the 6 to 15 range to get him.

[Balta1701]

Chris Beck for Jay Bruce?? Walt Jocketty might actually did from laughter from that offer.

 

Having said that, I would love to target Bruce and would easily give up several prospects in the 6 to 15 range to get him.

After what he did this year, that would be like us laughing at an offer of Chris Beck for Adam Dunn after his 2011 or 2012 seasons. I don't think that would be laughable if the team giving that guy up took the salary on.

[caulfield12]

After what he did this year, that would be like us laughing at an offer of Chris Beck for Adam Dunn after his 2011 or 2012 seasons. I don't think that would be laughable if the team giving that guy up took the salary on.

 

Or Matt Kemp, even after what he did the final two months of the season.

 

The Dodgers still need to find playing time for Pederson, Kemp and Puig don't get along so well, and they'd save a lot of money trading Kemp compared to Ethier/Crawford.

 

That said, they're also not stupid. They'll trade Ethier to any team who wants to take on that contract.

[Dick Allen]

After what he did this year, that would be like us laughing at an offer of Chris Beck for Adam Dunn after his 2011 or 2012 seasons. I don't think that would be laughable if the team giving that guy up took the salary on.

Sure, if you discount Dunn was several years older, owed many millions more (about $20 million in guaranteed money),and blow off Dunn wasn't really a defensive player and Bruce is a plus RF., and had a far worse season.

 

Other than that, you are right, it is pretty much the same.

Edited September 30, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

After what he did this year, that would be like us laughing at an offer of Chris Beck for Adam Dunn after his 2011 or 2012 seasons. I don't think that would be laughable if the team giving that guy up took the salary on.

So a 31 year old DH coming off a -3.0 WAR season with $42M in remaining payroll commitments is the same as a 27 year old RF coming off a -1.1 WAR with $25.5M in remaining payroll commitments?

[LDF]

Or Matt Kemp, even after what he did the final two months of the season.

 

The Dodgers still need to find playing time for Pederson, Kemp and Puig don't get along so well, and they'd save a lot of money trading Kemp compared to Ethier/Crawford.

 

That said, they're also not stupid. They'll trade Ethier to any team who wants to take on that contract.

 

lets not forget several other young prospects knocking on the door in the outfield. they have a log

jam in the outfield or will use those prospects for trade bait.

[LDF]

Chris Beck for Jay Bruce?? Walt Jocketty might actually did from laughter from that offer.

 

Having said that, I would love to target Bruce and would easily give up several prospects in the 6 to 15 range to get him.

 

too many questions for the value of the salary.

[Balta1701]

Sure, if you discount Dunn was several years older, owed many millions more (about $20 million in guaranteed money),and blow off Dunn wasn't really a defensive player and Bruce is a plus RF., and had a far worse season.

 

Other than that, you are right, it is pretty much the same.

I don't see why it's impossible to discount that. After all, you discounted the words "or 2012" in my comment.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't see why it's impossible to discount that. After all, you discounted the words "or 2012" in my comment.

Come on Balta, Bruce had a horrible 2014 season, but do you actually think he forgot how to play baseball or suddenly aged seven years? From what I've read he was never 100% this season due to a knee injury. As long as he can fully recover in the offseason, I see very little reason expect much less than his pre-2014 performance. If so, trading him for Chris Beck would be a firable offense IMO.

 

If I'm Hahn, Bruce is definitely a guy I go hard after. I'd be willing to give up three guys in the 6 to 15 range for him without hesitation. Not sure that will be enough, but I think it's worth a shot in the off-chance the Reds are desperate to rebuild and no-one is offering more.

[oldsox]

Or Matt Kemp, even after what he did the final two months of the season.

 

The Dodgers still need to find playing time for Pederson, Kemp and Puig don't get along so well, and they'd save a lot of money trading Kemp compared to Ethier/Crawford.

 

That said, they're also not stupid. They'll trade Ethier to any team who wants to take on that contract.

If Matt Kemp is available without giving up too much, I would jump on him like a tall dog and pay him his $20 large a year. He sure looked healthy to me when I saw him. He played in 150 games and finished strong. Put him back to back with Abreu, and they would hit 75 HR's together.

[LDF]

 

Maybe I am being silly with me being hard headed. the only way I would get Ethier

or Crawford if the dodgers threw in a prospect. a certified prospect who may

developed into a major leaguer.

 

the dodgers need to create room in the outfield. how much will they pay to get

that done?

[Quin]

Come on Balta, Bruce had a horrible 2014 season, but do you actually think he forgot how to play baseball or suddenly aged seven years? From what I've read he was never 100% this season due to a knee injury. As long as he can fully recover in the offseason, I see very little reason expect much less than his pre-2014 performance. If so, trading him for Chris Beck would be a firable offense IMO.

 

If I'm Hahn, Bruce is definitely a guy I go hard after. I'd be willing to give up three guys in the 6 to 15 range for him without hesitation. Not sure that will be enough, but I think it's worth a shot in the off-chance the Reds are desperate to rebuild and no-one is offering more.

 

So you'd give up something like Montas/Danish, Ravelo, and Sanchez for him?

 

Because I sure as hell wouldn't.

 

Our system is no longer so atrocious that our 6-15 guys are worthless.

[Chicago White Sox]

So you'd give up something like Montas/Danish, Ravelo, and Sanchez for him?

 

Because I sure as hell wouldn't.

 

Our system is no longer so atrocious that our 6-15 guys are worthless.

Jay Bruce from 2010 to 2013:

 

WAR: 4.9, 3.0, 2.1, 4.0 (avg. = 3.5)

wRC+: 124, 119, 120, 117 (avg. = 120)

 

He turns 28 on Opening Day next year, bats left-handed, and is under-team control for the next three years at $12.5M/per. One horrific season, almost certainly due to a knee injury, won't change my expectations of him over the next three years. I'm confident he'll be a 3 to 4 WAR player during that time.

 

Bruce is a guy that would normally cost you three top 5 prospects to obtain, so if I can get him for three guys in our 6 to 15 range you can bet I'll make that deal. I'd obviously like to hold onto Montas and Danish if possible, but they aren't going to hold me back from Jay Bruce if the other two pieces I'm giving up are Sanchez & Ravelo, neither who has star upside. Your deal is a no-brainer IMO.

 

[Balta1701]

Jay Bruce from 2010 to 2013:

 

WAR: 4.9, 3.0, 2.1, 4.0 (avg. = 3.5)

wRC+: 124, 119, 120, 117 (avg. = 120)

 

He turns 28 on Opening Day next year, bats left-handed, and is under-team control for the next three years at $12.5M/per. One horrific season, almost certainly due to a knee injury, won't change my expectations of him over the next three years. I'm confident he'll be a 3 to 4 WAR player during that time.

 

Bruce is a guy that would normally cost you three top 5 prospects to obtain, so if I can get him for three guys in our 6 to 15 range you can bet I'll make that deal. I'd obviously like to hold onto Montas and Danish if possible, but they aren't going to hold me back from Jay Bruce if the other two pieces I'm giving up are Sanchez & Ravelo, neither who has star upside. Your deal is a no-brainer IMO.

You haven't added why I should have confidence that a knee injury that hurt him the entire season will not be a future issue.

[Chicago White Sox]

You haven't added why I should have confidence that a knee injury that hurt him the entire season will not be a future issue.

Because he'll actually have a full off-season to rehab it. I'm sure patc could offer some expertise here, but everything I read said a full recovery is expected.

 

Balta, I really wish the other 29 GMs had the same tolerance for risk as you. "Oh s***, my 27 year old star outfielder had a horrible, injury-plagued season, I better trade him for Chris Beck & salary relief ASAP! He'll never bounce back from his negative WAR season!"

 

Again, Bruce is a perfect buy-low candidate, but Jocketty isn't going to overreact to one bad season and just give him away. We have to be prepared to give up some talent if we really want to get him. Salary relief and a C+ prospect won't cut it.

[2nd_city_saint787]

To come to eminors defense he did say Beck, Viciedo, and a couple fliers for Bruce, not just Beck. I think the deal he actually proposed, depending on your definition of "Fliers" is, is actually pretty reasonable. Perhaps something like Beck. Viciedo, Saladino, and Andrew Mitchell.

 

Or lesser versions of Saladino/Mitchell

Edited October 1, 2014 by scs787

[Chicago White Sox]

To come to eminors defense he did say Beck, Viciedo, and a couple fliers for Bruce, not just Beck. I think the deal he actually proposed, depending on your definition of "Fliers" is, is actually pretty reasonable. Perhaps something like Beck. Viciedo, Saladino, and Andrew Mitchell.

 

Or lesser versions of Saladino/Mitchell

Saladino & Mitchell have almost no value. Viciedo isn't worth much either. I don't see much of a difference between Chris Beck (who isn't that good of a prospect in the first place) and Chris Beck plus some garbage.

 

Again, this is a guy who would have cost at least top three 5 prospects a year ago. He won't be available that cheaply when his contact is pretty reasonable.

[witesoxfan]

Saladino & Mitchell have almost no value. Viciedo isn't worth much either. I don't see much of a difference between Chris Beck (who isn't that good of a prospect in the first place) and Chris Beck plus some garbage.

 

Again, this is a guy who would have cost at least top three 5 prospects a year ago. He won't be available that cheaply when his contact is pretty reasonable.

 

If he were traded, he'd come at some sort of discount, but I agree with you 100%. I think, bare minimum, you are looking at Danish and Semien, and there are other teams who would gladly give up more than that I'd imagine.

[Eminor3rd]

Come on Balta, Bruce had a horrible 2014 season, but do you actually think he forgot how to play baseball or suddenly aged seven years? From what I've read he was never 100% this season due to a knee injury. As long as he can fully recover in the offseason, I see very little reason expect much less than his pre-2014 performance. If so, trading him for Chris Beck would be a firable offense IMO.

 

If I'm Hahn, Bruce is definitely a guy I go hard after. I'd be willing to give up three guys in the 6 to 15 range for him without hesitation. Not sure that will be enough, but I think it's worth a shot in the off-chance the Reds are desperate to rebuild and no-one is offering more.

 

That's pretty much EXACTLY what I suggested in my post, except adding Viciedo, lol.