Adam Dunn retires

[Buehrle>Wood]

After 2001 games and 462 home runs.

[LittleHurt05]

After 2001 games and 462 home runs.

 

And zero postseason at-bats, quite the way to end a career last night

[shysocks]

And zero postseason at-bats, quite the way to end a career last night

It was like a Greek tragedy. I felt really bad for him that he couldn't find a way into a 12-inning game. Honestly, objectively, that was a bummer.

[southsider2k5]

Good luck to Adam. I know his time here was quantifiablely awful, but he was always a stand up guy. He was an easy guy to pull for, because he was a good person and a great teammate. He never tried to blame anyone or anything else. He was a positive influence on a lot of the kids in the clubhouse. Hopefully the next stage of his life is good to him.

[Dick Allen]

Dunn is 34 or 35 years old, has all the money he will ever need, and can do whatever he wants the rest of his life. Not a bad consolation prize for not getting any postseason ABs.

[bjm676]

Good luck to Adam. I know his time here was quantifiablely awful, but he was always a stand up guy. He was an easy guy to pull for, because he was a good person and a great teammate. He never tried to blame anyone or anything else. He was a positive influence on a lot of the kids in the clubhouse. Hopefully the next stage of his life is good to him.

 

 

Said perfectly. Good luck to him.

[Quin]

It was like a Greek tragedy. I felt really bad for him that he couldn't find a way into a 12-inning game. Honestly, objectively, that was a bummer.

 

This

 

 

Good luck to Adam. I know his time here was quantifiablely awful, but he was always a stand up guy. He was an easy guy to pull for, because he was a good person and a great teammate. He never tried to blame anyone or anything else. He was a positive influence on a lot of the kids in the clubhouse. Hopefully the next stage of his life is good to him.

 

And this

[Soxbadger]

May not have loved him as a baseball player, but he never made excuses and seemed to be a good guy.

 

Sometimes I wonder if a guy like that takes the boos too hard.

[BlackSox13]

Good luck to Adam. I know his time here was quantifiablely awful, but he was always a stand up guy. He was an easy guy to pull for, because he was a good person and a great teammate. He never tried to blame anyone or anything else. He was a positive influence on a lot of the kids in the clubhouse. Hopefully the next stage of his life is good to him.

Well said sir!

 

I wish Adam well and may he enjoy his new golf cart. Maybe even take a page out of Bill Murray's book.

[greg775]

I wish Adam well as well. He doesn't need my well wishes after all that money he's made.

It's funny how in sports some guys who steal money from teams, so to speak, are OK with the fans, yet fans want to run other guys (like backup quarterbacks in football) out of town.

Matt Cassel was booed at the all star celebrity softball game in KC for gawd sakes a couple years ago and he's the nicest guy around.

 

The truth is Adam Dunn was a great guy who was a horrible White Sox hitter. Aren't you supposed to be a good guy in life? Why do we praise him for that and fans despise other guys who are nice guys? I'm sure Pierre was a nice guy. Dwyane Wise was a nice guy probably. Some other stiffs of the past. And they got ROASTED.

 

Good for Big Adam. It's not my money and he's done well setting his people up for life.

[witesoxfan]

I think anybody saying that Adam Dunn was a horrible hitter for the White Sox is completely mistaken, but he definitely didn't live up to lofty expectations. He was a horrible hitter one year and about exactly what you could expect out of him the other 3.

 

I wish him well, hopefully he keeps winning Oscars.

[greg775]

He was a horrible hitter one year and about exactly what you could expect out of him the other 3.

 

I wish him well, hopefully he keeps winning Oscars.

 

Well, his stats this year were not exactly good in relation to how much money he pocketed. So even with what you pointed out, two of his four seasons were totally unproductive.

[witesoxfan]

Well, his stats this year were not exactly good in relation to how much money he pocketed. So even with what you pointed out, two of his four seasons were totally unproductive.

 

Adam Dunn had a wRC+ of 115 with the White Sox this year, which means he was 15% better than the league average. Adam Eaton also had a wRC+ of 115. He didn't hit for a very high average but he drew a lot of walks and hit for a lot of power. That's a productive hitter, which is the opposite of an unproductive hitter.

[Chisoxfn]

I think anybody saying that Adam Dunn was a horrible hitter for the White Sox is completely mistaken, but he definitely didn't live up to lofty expectations. He was a horrible hitter one year and about exactly what you could expect out of him the other 3.

 

I wish him well, hopefully he keeps winning Oscars.

No. I think you can't ignore certain stats and he was atrocious. Not enough makeup in the world, or in this case, HR's, made up for the fact that Adam Dunn was a very bad hitter.

[witesoxfan]

No. I think you can't ignore certain stats and he was atrocious. Not enough makeup in the world, or in this case, HR's, made up for the fact that Adam Dunn was a very bad hitter.

 

I think that's a very narrow and shallow way of looking at it. Hitters come in all sizes, shapes, and forms, and just because a guy does his damage in a way you do not find preferable does not mean he is not a productive hitter. There are absolutely huge, glaring flaws in a style such as Dunn's, but to say he's a bad hitter almost solely based on the fact that he hit for a low average is wrong.

 

Simply by being able to work counts and draw walks, Adam Dunn goes from being an unproductive, valueless hitter to someone who can at least keep the lineup churning. I'd much rather have Dunn DH than Dayan Viciedo.

[greg775]

No. I think you can't ignore certain stats and he was atrocious. Not enough makeup in the world, or in this case, HR's, made up for the fact that Adam Dunn was a very bad hitter.

 

After reading the last few posts I've decided to make this my final career post on Dunn. I will agree to disagree with his supporters.

 

Some people just won't say acquiring him was a horrible idea and he was a total detriment to the team the last four years. My last words on the topic are he hit 20 homers and knocked in 54 runs this season. I know those are old time stats, outdated stats, meaningless stats, but to me they signify blah. Yes he draws walks. Yes he hit some big bombs that got me excited.

I will end my Dunn posting career by saying he's one of my least favorite White Sox ever. I'm elated he's gone. But to be fair, I applaud him for the homers he hit that won games or put the White Sox ahead. Yes he did hit some of those. I remember cheering those bombs. Again, he made me happy on several occasions.

 

Goodbye Adam. Spend the money wisely which I'm sure you will. I applaud your personality, which is a good one.

I can agree to disagree with those who say you were even an average hitter, though. You were mighty bad.

[Chisoxfn]

I think that's a very narrow and shallow way of looking at it. Hitters come in all sizes, shapes, and forms, and just because a guy does his damage in a way you do not find preferable does not mean he is not a productive hitter. There are absolutely huge, glaring flaws in a style such as Dunn's, but to say he's a bad hitter almost solely based on the fact that he hit for a low average is wrong.

 

Simply by being able to work counts and draw walks, Adam Dunn goes from being an unproductive, valueless hitter to someone who can at least keep the lineup churning. I'd much rather have Dunn DH than Dayan Viciedo.

One lesser pile of crap doesn't make the other one crap. Both are not middle of the order hitters on contending teams. At least Viciedo is young with good bat speed but his complete and utter lack of OBP is horrendous but OBP in and of isn't the same. A walk is not as good as a single. Don't care how many people will disagree, it isn't.

[witesoxfan]

One lesser pile of crap doesn't make the other one crap. Both are not middle of the order hitters on contending teams. At least Viciedo is young with good bat speed but his complete and utter lack of OBP is horrendous but OBP in and of isn't the same. A walk is not as good as a single. Don't care how many people will disagree, it isn't.

 

Nobody has ever said it is, but a walk is also better than making an out.

 

There's no point in arguing this anymore, we know how everyone feels, Adam Dunn is retired, and we will probably never see a player quite like him ever again. I just get upset when people say that Adam Dunn was "horrible" or he "was not productive" when all the numbers we have on record indicate these descriptors are incorrect. Nobody is saying he was good; I (or we) are saying he was a productive hitter who was incredibly flawed. A player with his line has a spot in the 6th or 7th spot in a really good lineup, but depending upon him for run production or to be your cleanup hitter is a mistake.

[Texsox]

Good luck to Adam. I know his time here was quantifiablely awful, but he was always a stand up guy. He was an easy guy to pull for, because he was a good person and a great teammate. He never tried to blame anyone or anything else. He was a positive influence on a lot of the kids in the clubhouse. Hopefully the next stage of his life is good to him.

 

saved me some typing.

[Chisoxfn]

Nobody has ever said it is, but a walk is also better than making an out.

 

There's no point in arguing this anymore, we know how everyone feels, Adam Dunn is retired, and we will probably never see a player quite like him ever again. I just get upset when people say that Adam Dunn was "horrible" or he "was not productive" when all the numbers we have on record indicate these descriptors are incorrect. Nobody is saying he was good; I (or we) are saying he was a productive hitter who was incredibly flawed. A player with his line has a spot in the 6th or 7th spot in a really good lineup, but depending upon him for run production or to be your cleanup hitter is a mistake.

I would tell you that in my opinion the numbers you put out are meaningless and other numbers can't outweigh his overall inability to hit. Case closed. You will not win many games when you have such boom / bust players on your roster. Lets say you had a pitcher who ever 3rd game was amazing and the other 2 games sucked (and this would be by hitters standards, thus negating the fact that a hitter that gets a hit 30 % of the time is pretty good). You'd have a pretty bad team. I'd also argue OBP of certain players is more valuable then other players. A high OBP for a guy who is a top of the order has better value then an OBP guy (or put another way a guy whose OBP is driven largely off walks vs. average) later in the order (yes, both get credit for OBP and to an extent it is a control of where you are playing, but again, you are in a position where early in the order your OBP is more valuable then later in the order per say where there are less run producers behind you). I'd also tell you that fundamentally OBP is better for guys who can run then guys who can't. Higher probability of the walk turning into a run when you have a guy that can take an extra base, steal an extra base, go 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc vs. that of a station to station player. I don't believe any of these aspects are accounted for in Wrc (yes, maybe steals are indirectly accounted for but not all OBP is created equal and that is an inherent flaw). Now I realize those are meant to be standalone statistics so I can buy the where you hit in the lineup piece and players behind you cause that is out of your control but the speed aspect is not).

 

I am all for advanced stats but people look at Dunn and point too blindly to this Wrc and other aspects. I'm sorry, I think those statistics are overstating his value significantly. I'd also continue to say that statisticians don't have it right that a strikeout is the same as an out. In an out, runners can advance, runners can be sacrificed in, etc. Now they can also hit into a DP which negates some of those components but statistically I still believe that a strikeout is worse then a contact out. Again, I don't believe models account for these variables and again, this overstates Dunn's value.

 

I'm sorry, under zero circumstances was Dunn a good player and that was further evidenced by the fact that almost nobody that was in contention, including some teams who could have used a power bat off the bench at a minimum, were all that interested in Dunn, despite Sox willingness to pay some money and fact he wasn't owed that much (especially since, as you put it, he was productive).

[Balta1701]

Again, I don't believe models account for these variables and again, this overstates Dunn's value.

Without going into too many details, this is sort of the key phrase, and actually this should actually be very easy to account for statistically.

 

There is a probability of a runner scoring by being stuck on first and a probability of him scoring if he's advanced to second. The value of a ball put in play is that it can change that probability. That means you weight the strikeouts leaving the runner at 1b against the added value of the guy getting to 2nd.

 

I don't see any reason why a solid mathematical treatment wouldn't have done this already. Pay me for a couple days to do nothing else and I'd have a rudimentary version of it. Is there a solid literature statement somewhere saying explicitly that this is not included in modern understanding of offensive production?

 

Similarly, you refer to the value of a guy who is able to take 2nd. This is almost certainly included in models of production these days under the "base running" category. Guys like Konerko and Dunn are hugely downgraded on that because when they get to 1b they aren't able to score on a double and that costs runs. To calculate that, you figure out things like "the fraction of times a double was hit where this guy scored" and details like that. It's not fast and easy but with a full season's worth of data and enough time (aka, pay me a lot of money to sit at Excel for a couple weeks) we could have a really good model of this.

 

That last part may or may not go into "RC+", I cannot say for sure, but it definitely gets included in the full WAR calculations.

[Rowand44]

#teamwite

[Chisoxfn]

Without going into too many details, this is sort of the key phrase, and actually this should actually be very easy to account for statistically.

 

There is a probability of a runner scoring by being stuck on first and a probability of him scoring if he's advanced to second. The value of a ball put in play is that it can change that probability. That means you weight the strikeouts leaving the runner at 1b against the added value of the guy getting to 2nd.

 

I don't see any reason why a solid mathematical treatment wouldn't have done this already. Pay me for a couple days to do nothing else and I'd have a rudimentary version of it. Is there a solid literature statement somewhere saying explicitly that this is not included in modern understanding of offensive production?

 

Similarly, you refer to the value of a guy who is able to take 2nd. This is almost certainly included in models of production these days under the "base running" category. Guys like Konerko and Dunn are hugely downgraded on that because when they get to 1b they aren't able to score on a double and that costs runs. To calculate that, you figure out things like "the fraction of times a double was hit where this guy scored" and details like that. It's not fast and easy but with a full season's worth of data and enough time (aka, pay me a lot of money to sit at Excel for a couple weeks) we could have a really good model of this.

 

That last part may or may not go into "RC+", I cannot say for sure, but it definitely gets included in the full WAR calculations.

Look into the detailed components that go into those calculations, in no way shape or form do I see anything being applied that would negate for the speed factor of a player and thus adjustments that should be made to the run coefficient based upon speed tools nor is there an adjustment / factor for strikeout to out at least not that is defined. And the first variable would be extremely difficult to actually figure out as you can't just use pure speed times as there are many aspects that go into baserunning from jumps to secondary leads to just being a good runner.

 

OPS and OPS+ certainly don't factor in those components either. Bottom line, for the various reasons I listed, I think the value applied to Dunn's OBP and the lack of negative on the strikeouts, are just two aspects that should be negatively factored into some of these advanced stats that seem to still show him being "productive". I'd also tell you I could cherry pick anything and come up with productivity and that is why you have to consider many things and that is why you can't be a GM from behind a computer, you actually have to apply logic and consider numerous factors when making decisions.

 

Also, my understanding of WAR is that the baserunning component is based on stolen bases, which is only one aspect / component of baserunning. I think they have some other component in but I've never seen any specifics as to what drives it and I think it is some sort of factor on how likely the run is to score, however, that is likely a flawed metric as it would be very much dependent on the players behind you (at least in terms of an individualistic stat).

 

I'd also point out that by WAR, Adam Dunn was not a very good player with the Sox (Total WAR of -1.5 over 4 seasons (including his time with A's...pretty pathetic or an average WAR of -.375 per season). Factor in the contract and that is an absurdly bad level of production.

 

WRC does not factor in base running adjustments and is really just a variant of Weighted on base percentage (at least not that I am aware of) nor does it factor in the value of an out vs. a strikeout being discussed, which again, as I point out, would inflate Adam Dunns production under that metric. WAR at least takes into account certain measures, albeit still limited.

[Balta1701]

Look into the detailed components that go into those calculations, in no way shape or form do I see anything being applied that would negate for the speed factor of a player and thus adjustments that should be made to the run coefficient based upon speed tools nor is there an adjustment / factor for strikeout to out at least not that is defined. And the first variable would be extremely difficult to actually figure out as you can't just use pure speed times as there are many aspects that go into baserunning from jumps to secondary leads to just being a good runner.

 

OPS and OPS+ certainly don't factor in those components either. Bottom line, for the various reasons I listed, I think the value applied to Dunn's OBP and the lack of negative on the strikeouts, are just two aspects that should be negatively factored into some of these advanced stats that seem to still show him being "productive". I'd also tell you I could cherry pick anything and come up with productivity and that is why you have to consider many things and that is why you can't be a GM from behind a computer, you actually have to apply logic and consider numerous factors when making decisions.

You're definitely right, OPS and OPS+ do not take those into account. However, they are factored in, in exactly the way you keep asking for, into WAR.

Also, my understanding of WAR is that the baserunning component is based on stolen bases, which is only one aspect / component of baserunning. I think they have some other component in but I've never seen any specifics as to what drives it and I think it is some sort of factor on how likely the run is to score, however, that is likely a flawed metric as it would be very much dependent on the players behind you (at least in terms of an individualistic stat).

This part is simply untrue. Went to Baseball Reference's page and just found how they define it:

Baserunning runs come from two places:

 

Stolen Bases and Caught Stealing runs as calculated above for wRAA (see above for link to an explanation of this), and

Non-Basestealing baserunning which includes items like 1st to 3rd on singles, outs on the bases, tagging up on fly balls, scoring from third on a ground ball, etc.

This explanation describes the techniques used to estimate non-SB/CS baserunning contributions during the play-by-play era, 1953 to the present.

 

Obviously baserunners can advance while on first, second and third, but the mix of opportunities available to them is different for each of the three bases they may occupy, so for each player we track the number of occurrences for each of the following events for each base.

They do exactly what I thought they would do, they calculate how the probability of scoring changes depending on how the player moves between bases and compare it to the number of outs made on the bases. They consider 39 different scenarios by my count.

[Chisoxfn]

You're definitely right, OPS and OPS+ do not take those into account. However, they are factored in, in exactly the way you keep asking for, into WAR.

This part is simply untrue. Went to Baseball Reference's page and just found how they define it:

They do exactly what I thought they would do, they calculate how the probability of scoring changes depending on how the player moves between bases and compare it to the number of outs made on the bases. They consider 39 different scenarios by my count.

You replied before I completed some edits. The formula they use does not really do the adjustment you talk about, the way the formula is calculated it is highly dependent on the production of the players behind them and how often they actually score, which can be inherently flawed because someone with great speed and a good baserunner could have had poor hitters behind him and thus never scored many runs where another guy could have had a plus player behind him and even though he was slow as molasses he scored at a higher percentage because the guys behind him were very productive. That is an extremely limited view they are applying.

 

Edit: Also, upon second read, what I read for wRAA was based upon what Fangraphs had indicated which did not factor on 1st to 3rd, etc. So it appears a difference between fangraphs and BR and I'd say BR's version is better. All that said, it would also go on to explain why Dunn has such a crappy WAR. The pure offensive metrics like OPS+, OPS, Wrc do not factor in the aspects and thus his value is overly inflated vs. what is being utilized in the WAR calculation and it is why you see the overall disconnect between a guy who was actually lousy vs. this so called productivity based upon Wrc.