Decision Review: Reed for Davidson

[witesoxfan]

Is Matt Davidson Destined to be a Bust?

 

Nice to actually see some comparisons. No, it does not look good, but there's no need to get rid of him and he's entering what is a make or break year for him.

[LDF]

Nice to actually see some comparisons. No, it does not look good, but there's no need to get rid of him and he's entering what is a make or break year for him.

 

excellent point not only for him, but for a lot of other players.

[Chisoxfn]

Is Matt Davidson Destined to be a Bust?

Thanks for sharing. Continues to reiterate that he should not be on anyone's big board. In fact, the deeper point is in the more historical analysis which would indicate if you did the statistical analysis focused by comps based upon his minor league numbers, he often times didn't have good comps. That said its limited data and just one data set as well.

 

Either way, no point in trading him (zero value) but at same time, no one should be expecting anything out of him. If somehow he makes some changes and rebounds and turns into something, great, but It would be a stunning surprise vs. an expectation.

[SCCWS]

the type of hitter, power hitter that Davidson is, is the kind of power hitters that was sought

after. low avg hitter, high strike out, but will hit many hrs.

 

Add in the lousy defense and it sounds like a poor man's version of Adam Dunn Hopefully Davidon is good in the clubhouse.

 

[Rowand44]

I loved, LOVED this trade when it was first made as it was exactly what I thought Hahn should be doing. Things obviously look a lot differently now with Davidson being horrendous this year but I'm not pining to have Reed back either.

[LDF]

I loved, LOVED this trade when it was first made as it was exactly what I thought Hahn should be doing. Things obviously look a lot differently now with Davidson being horrendous this year but I'm not pining to have Reed back either.

 

I hated it, not Davidson, but I thought the sox should have gotten an additional player

[LDF]

While I wasn't besotted with Davidson as a prospect (largely because of his meager stats in the PCL), this is how I felt. I feel a big majority of the board was in agreeance with this as well.

 

I like it. nice word.

 

but what surprise me, first with Davidson, is the PCL that bad or was the competition

not as strong?

 

the 2nd thing, this thread has a lot of good reading and opinions.

[oldsox]

Thanks for sharing. Continues to reiterate that he should not be on anyone's big board. In fact, the deeper point is in the more historical analysis which would indicate if you did the statistical analysis focused by comps based upon his minor league numbers, he often times didn't have good comps. That said its limited data and just one data set as well.

 

Either way, no point in trading him (zero value) but at same time, no one should be expecting anything out of him. If somehow he makes some changes and rebounds and turns into something, great, but It would be a stunning surprise vs. an expectation.

Well said. It still blows my mind that so many posters have him in the top ten prospect list. Nice to see a Mod agree with me on Davidson.

[harfman77]

It was a good trade, though Davidson had some alarming contact issues as a big red flag, he was a top 100 prospect with a ton of RH power.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Reed's performance as a Sox closer is no better than Petricka (statistically speaking). Would anyone be alarmed this offseason is Hahn traded Peticka for a young position player?

 

Reed was a 7/8 inning guy that ended up closing on a bad team. Davidson's "pedigree" and prospect status at the time of the trade was worth more than an above-average relief pitcher.

[Balta1701]

This isn't true. Reed's peripherals have and had been outstanding. Petricka doesn't come near Reed in that respect. People forget that Reed was BA's #66 prospect in 2012. Sure, they were more bullish on him than most but Reed DOMINATED the minor leagues in every respect and that's not debatable. I'd trade Petricka for Reed and wouldn't think twice about it.

Petricka was never that high of prospect, but i actually found it interesting that their peripherals weren't all that far apart. Reed's were better this year overall, best peripheral year of his career, but Petricka in his rookie year was comparable to how Reed was at his best with the White Sox.

[SCCWS]

Petricka was never that high of prospect, but i actually found it interesting that their peripherals weren't all that far apart. Reed's were better this year overall, best peripheral year of his career, but Petricka in his rookie year was comparable to how Reed was at his best with the White Sox.

 

Petricka had a good rookie year. But I see him more as a set-up man than the closer. His K/BB ratio is pretty low in that he doesn't strike out a lot, his BA against is very average but he also does not give up many HR.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

The statistical differences between Reed and Petricka is of little relevance. Because Reed had .0137 higher zWAR is irrelevant. The point is, both are late inning relievers with the same value to their team. And to say that Petricka had lower prospect status with the Sox than Reed is completely ridiculous.

 

Petricka was taken 63rd overall in the second round in the 2010 draft. Reed was taken 93rd overall in the 3rd round of the same very draft. So, clearly the White Sox thought more highly of Petricka than they did of Reed. Reed was drafted as a reliever and was always a "relief prospect."

 

The point is... Reed wasn't a lockdown closer traded for a likely-bust 3B. Reed is a 7/8 inning guy whose value was bloated by his "saves stat" pitching on a bad team... a statistic that a recently-fired GM overpaid for....

 

Would Sox fans be pissed if Rick Hahn traded Jake Petricka for a power bat prospect coming off of a 280/350/481 AAA season at age 22? No, because you do it every time.

Edited October 22, 2014 by Charlie Haeger's Knuckles

[LDF]

This isn't true. Reed's peripherals have and had been outstanding. Petricka doesn't come near Reed in that respect. People forget that Reed was BA's #66 prospect in 2012. Sure, they were more bullish on him than most but Reed DOMINATED the minor leagues in every respect and that's not debatable. I'd trade Petricka for Reed and wouldn't think twice about it.

 

 

thank you, I was getting tired of fighting that battle.

[greg775]

It was a good trade, though Davidson had some alarming contact issues as a big red flag, he was a top 100 prospect with a ton of RH power.

 

It's funny how sports never relate to the real world. That was a good trade. Yet if I do something at work with good intentions and it flops I get fired or yelled at or demoted. Results, baby, results.

[witesoxfan]

It's funny how sports never relate to the real world. That was a good trade. Yet if I do something at work with good intentions and it flops I get fired or yelled at or demoted. Results, baby, results.

 

Name me something you've done with good intentions that had good merit and logic behind the decision that backfired that got you into hot water. I am genuinely curious to know.

[LDF]

It's funny how sports never relate to the real world. That was a good trade. Yet if I do something at work with good intentions and it flops I get fired or yelled at or demoted. Results, baby, results.

 

sports figures in general have always had more wiggle room to get away with things.

 

until recently esp with the football players.

[LDF]

Name me something you've done with good intentions that had good merit and logic behind the decision that backfired that got you into hot water. I am genuinely curious to know.

 

crap...... I was being stupid..... that was the past BS. I too freaking old now.

 

forgive me.

Edited October 22, 2014 by LDF

[greg775]

Name me something you've done with good intentions that had good merit and logic behind the decision that backfired that got you into hot water. I am genuinely curious to know.

Sales people can make all the calls, work hard as hell, and without results, get canned. I know a guy who was a car salesman for about 2 weeks. He showed up on time, tried to learn, but they saw he couldn't sell well and was gone.

Edited October 23, 2014 by greg775

[witesoxfan]

Sales people can make all the calls, work hard as hell, and without results, get canned. I know a guy who was a car salesman for about 2 weeks. He showed up on time, tried to learn, but they saw he couldn't sell well and was gone.

 

I don't see this situations as even comparable to the Reed/Davidson trade.

 

Say a doctor has a 62 year old patient who is having heart problems. He knows that a patient of that age can have trouble rebounding or perhaps dying on the table if he performs surgery, but that the quality of life will increase tenfold if surgery is performed. He tells the patient this, the patient agrees to the surgery, and then the patient dies on the operating table. It's a move done with good intentions that backfires.

 

This is an exaggerated example to prove the point, and the doctor could still see a malpractice lawsuit, but do you understand how that is a move with good intentions and good merit that backfired on him?

[LDF]

 

everything in life is a gamble.

 

in some areas, there is no safety net or a do over.

 

now back to baseball. look at every yrs drafted prospected. how many in each

draft class makes it?

 

go even further, how many of the 1rn'er makes it?

 

how many prospects dreams have been crushes when some realize they are

not good enuf to take it to the next level.

[Dick Allen]

I don't see this situations as even comparable to the Reed/Davidson trade.

 

Say a doctor has a 62 year old patient who is having heart problems. He knows that a patient of that age can have trouble rebounding or perhaps dying on the table if he performs surgery, but that the quality of life will increase tenfold if surgery is performed. He tells the patient this, the patient agrees to the surgery, and then the patient dies on the operating table. It's a move done with good intentions that backfires.

 

This is an exaggerated example to prove the point, and the doctor could still see a malpractice lawsuit, but do you understand how that is a move with good intentions and good merit that backfired on him?

People get fired every day for making decisions that seem correct at the time that were not correct. In this instance, some THOUGHT Davidson was a top 100 prospect. The reality is, he wasn't. To say the White Sox are blameless is ludicrous. What they acquired did not match the description of what they acquired when the move appeared to make sense. That is on someone.

 

 

 

Most people make decisions based on good intentions. Often they backfire. A reason for that is some of the logic they used eventually proves to be a bit off, like the Davidson rankings. I am a little shocked you still fight this when even fangraphs says this guy wasn't all that great before 2014. Hahn, KW, the scouts...whoever made the decision, picked the wrong guy. It will happen again, but if it happens too often, even if every move he makes seems logical, if they don't work, someone else will need to make the decisions.

[witesoxfan]

People get fired every day for making decisions that seem correct at the time that were not correct. In this instance, some THOUGHT Davidson was a top 100 prospect. The reality is, he wasn't. To say the White Sox are blameless is ludicrous. What they acquired did not match the description of what they acquired when the move appeared to make sense. That is on someone.

 

 

 

Most people make decisions based on good intentions. Often they backfire. A reason for that is some of the logic they used eventually proves to be a bit off, like the Davidson rankings. I am a little shocked you still fight this when even fangraphs says this guy wasn't all that great before 2014. Hahn, KW, the scouts...whoever made the decision, picked the wrong guy. It will happen again, but if it happens too often, even if every move he makes seems logical, if they don't work, someone else will need to make the decisions.

 

I'm not fighing the fight, all I've ever said is that the intention was good and I'd have no problem with Hahn making a similar sort of move going forward.

 

Please tell me, because I'm genuinely interested...what decisions do people make that have good intentions, good merits, and good logic that get people fired? About the only thing I can think of is whistleblowing, and if someone is fired for doing so they have the ability to sue their former employers.

 

(Also, there was no "some THOUGHT Davidson was a top 100 prospect." Davidson WAS a top 100 prospect. Prospects flame out. It has not worked out the way the Sox wanted but that does not mean the Sox should avoid similar trades in the future.)

[Dick Allen]

I'm not fighing the fight, all I've ever said is that the intention was good and I'd have no problem with Hahn making a similar sort of move going forward.

 

Please tell me, because I'm genuinely interested...what decisions do people make that have good intentions, good merits, and good logic that get people fired? About the only thing I can think of is whistleblowing, and if someone is fired for doing so they have the ability to sue their former employers.

 

(Also, there was no "some THOUGHT Davidson was a top 100 prospect." Davidson WAS a top 100 prospect. Prospects flame out. It has not worked out the way the Sox wanted but that does not mean the Sox should avoid similar trades in the future.)

People get fired or laid off every day because higher ups didn't meet their expectations. Public company CEO get replaced even if the company is making billions .

 

Top 100 prospects lists are opinions or they all would be exactly the same. Reality is seeing how they perform and then ranking them.

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

People get fired or laid off every day because higher ups didn't meet their expectations. Public company CEO get replaced even if the company is making billions .

 

OK, but I asked for specifics. CEO's are rarely replaced unless they are of a certain age (because a lot of executive members are forced to retire at 65), they do something wrong, or there is something wrong in the company in the company. This is as much of a non-answer as there could be.

 

If all Hahn did was trade relievers for top 100 prospects for the rest of his tenure, he'd eventually get fired because needs diversify and change, but if he made a similar move this offseason with Petricka or Webb and brought in a similar caliber prospect - that is, someone who is generally agreed upon by most baseball people to be a talented player - I'd have no problem with it even after all the bullpen troubles the Sox had this past season. If that prospect failed, I'd say the exact same thing I've said regarding the Reed/Davidson trade - it was the right idea, the outcome was poor, and I hope he'd make a similar move if given the opportunity again.

 

Since the end of the season, I've also said that it has turned into a bad move for the Sox. They happen, but the idea and the philosophy and the style of trade is right. I also don't think you can give up on Davidson yet, even if his prospects don't look good in the long-term.