Victor Martinez Re-signs with Tigers

[Dick Allen]

What you're saying makes a ton of sense, and I think it's at the center of the logical portion of Dick Allen's argument, too. There is ALWAYS risk with EVERYONE, and to avoid all risk is to not really play.

 

That said, you can accept risk without completely ignoring it. What I'm trying to say is that V Mart is MORE risky than the average (age, injury, outlier season, inflated price, etc.) free agent. He may the MOST risky, in fact. I just think that, in our position, we should not take the RISKIEST step available to us. Remember, I'm all for going for Russell Martin, who is 31 and a catcher and also coming of a fluke season, and many have pointed out the risks in that correctly. But there are a lot of reason to think that's still a safer move than Martinez and will pay dividends for longer. Martinez is just the shortest, riskiest guy.

 

In the light of this World Series, what with two hot WC teams making it all the way to the end despite just barely sneaking into the tournament in the first place, one of the hot topics in saber circles now is the mental re-imagining of what the "win curve" really looks like. If 87 wins gets you a shot at a title, you can make an argument that you're contender even if you're a true talent .500 (82 win) team. All it takes is a couple lucky breaks and a handful of extra innings victories. Hell, you can make an argument that you're a fringe contender if you're a BELOW .500 team. What this means is that there is value in sustaining a decent level of performance, without the peaks and valleys, where there was none before. Now, a 94 win juggernaut only has a marginally better shot at the championship, but costs drastically more in terms of time and money to create. Feast or famine is going out of style.

 

For this reason, if we're going to take risks, it would behoove us to take those that have at least a reasonable shot at offering sustained return. I don't think you can look ahead more than 4 years with any shred of accuracy, but you can make a reasonable guess at how things will likely work out for the next few years at least. To me, V Mart is a bold, one year move that might work for two that almost certainly is a problem after three and four. It's a feast or famine move in an era where the middle road is looking like the most prudent path.

Riskiest would be giving one of those pitchers over $100 million or giving Scherzer a 7 year contract. If you are thinking, 3 years $48 is a doable thing, it would have to go a lot higher than that to be as risky as those signings.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Riskiest would be giving one of those pitchers over $100 million or giving Scherzer a 7 year contract. If you are thinking, 3 years $48 is a doable thing, it would have to go a lot higher than that to be as risky as those signings.

 

Yeah, that's probably true. What I meant to say was that Martinez represents the highest combination of high risk and short-term return. James Shields is the pitching equivalent this year.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Guess the difference between our arguments is that I don't see VMart as the most risky by far. You mentioned Adam LaRoche as a possibility. He's 13 months younger than VMart but he's not very good against LH's. Of course he'd be cheaper and be able to play a better 1st base than Martinez in late innings and occasional starts. So he's essentially useless against LH's and his K's hurt you in those runner on 3rd and less than 2 out situations. Martinez has shown throughout his career that he is equally good against LH's and RH's . You also have the same arguments for rapid decline because of the similarities in age. Sure you can sign him for 1 or 2 less years probably but I'd rather have the guy who can be a bigger threat against all pitchers and in late innings when teams bring in a specialist.

Edited November 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

Guess the difference between our arguments is that I don't see VMart as the most risky by far. You mentioned Adam Laroche as a possibility. He's 13 months younger than VMart but he's not very good against LH's. Of course he'd be cheaper and be able to play a better 1st base than Martinez in late innings and occasional starts. So he's essentially useless against LH's and his K's hurt you in those runner on 3rd and less than 2 out situations. Martinez has shown throughout his career that he is equally good against LH's and RH's . You also have the same arguments for rapid decline because of the similarities in age. Sure you can sign him for 1 or 2 less years probably but I'd rather have the guy who can be a bigger threat against all pitchers and in late innings when teams bring in a specialist.

 

I don't think his performance is any riskier than LaRoche's, but when you factor cost, Victor is a riskier proposition.

[LDF]

I don't think his performance is any riskier than LaRoche's, but when you factor cost, Victor is a riskier proposition.

 

interesting point. dang, i didn't think about it.

[LDF]

Guess the difference between our arguments is that I don't see VMart as the most risky by far. You mentioned Adam LaRoche as a possibility. He's 13 months younger than VMart but he's not very good against LH's. Of course he'd be cheaper and be able to play a better 1st base than Martinez in late innings and occasional starts. So he's essentially useless against LH's and his K's hurt you in those runner on 3rd and less than 2 out situations. Martinez has shown throughout his career that he is equally good against LH's and RH's . You also have the same arguments for rapid decline because of the similarities in age. Sure you can sign him for 1 or 2 less years probably but I'd rather have the guy who can be a bigger threat against all pitchers and in late innings when teams bring in a specialist.

 

my problem stems from the number of yrs on the contract

and salary demand per yr.

[BlackSox13]

Two things that would make much more sense,IMO.

 

1- signing another FA hitter or two to go with the VMart signing. If the Sox are going to lose a pick, may as well use this year to sign FA's since the number one is protected regardless so at least the Sox keep that no matter what. Sign one or two other guys first and show VMart the Sox are committed to winning in 2015. Another advantage to this would be if the Sox sign a another player or two that cost picks, the Tigers end up with the Sox 3rd or 4th round pick as compensation instead of the 2nd.

 

2- as a poster has already mentioned., try a front loaded contract with VMart. Something like 18M in 2015, 16M in 2016, 14M in 2017 and offer a mutual option for 14M in 2018. I'd guess he could get a better deal from another team but might be worth a shot.

 

I would still rather see the Sox go a different direction but IMO, VMart makes much more sense if the Sox are signing another FA hitter or two to go with VMart. Or even taking on a productive player with a high salary like Ethier, Crawford etc.

[Balta1701]

How about with with a career 125 wRC+ who bats lefthanded (actually both) can be plugged into the middle of the line up, and rarely swings and misses.

Just to point out how solvable this position is every year, in addition to Laroche, here's the WRC+ career for various guys who are also available:

Michael Morse's: 122

Kendrys Morales: 111

Billy Butler: 117

Michael Cuddyer 117

Pablo Sandoval: 122

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I don't think his performance is any riskier than LaRoche's, but when you factor cost, Victor is a riskier proposition.

Cost factors are just that VMart is better than LaRoche . The added benefit to having a VMart over LaRoche is his switch hitting greatness means you aren't hurt when those specialists are brought in and we all know the games can be won or lost when a team brings in a LH to face a guy like LaRoche. The more guys that don't have to be platooned that you have the better your chance of winning those tight late innings or extra innings games become.

 

Also as a fellow Venezuelan I think his influence on Avi might pay great benefits to his development.

Edited November 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just to point out how solvable this position is every year, in addition to Laroche, here's the WRC+ career for various guys who are also available:

Michael Morse's: 122

Kendrys Morales: 111

Billy Butler: 117

Michael Cuddyer 117

Pablo Sandoval: 122

Dick was saying either a switch hitter or a LH because we need a LH badly . Morse ,Butler and Cuddyer are RH . Sandoval was pitiful against LH's this year and isn't a DH and Morales was just plain pitiful all around . Not solved at all.

[Dick Allen]

Just to point out how solvable this position is every year, in addition to Laroche, here's the WRC+ career for various guys who are also available:

Michael Morse's: 122

Kendrys Morales: 111

Billy Butler: 117

Michael Cuddyer 117

Pablo Sandoval: 122

Of the 5, 2 hit LH, one will cost you more than Victor, and the other hit like Leuri Garcia this year and has and agent named Boras.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

my problem stems from the number of yrs on the contract

and salary demand per yr.

I don't like adding a 4th yr either but maybe he gets 4 yrs, maybe he doesn't and right now he isn't making any "demands". If I had to guess what he'll "ask" for probably $18M+.

[GGajewski18]

MLB Network Radio @MLBNetworkRadio · 8m 8 minutes ago

.@Tigers OF JD Martinez tells "Inside Pitch" he's talked to Victor Martinez, VMart says he wants to come back to DET if their offer is close

[Eminor3rd]

Dick was saying either a switch hitter or a LH because we need a LH badly . Morse ,Butler and Cuddyer are RH . Sandoval was pitiful against LH's this year and isn't a DH and Morales was just plain pitiful all around . Not solved at all.

 

Not to nitpick, but RE: Sandoval, if you want a LH hitter, you are concerned with his performance against RHP, not LHP.

[Balta1701]

Of the 5, 2 hit LH, one will cost you more than Victor, and the other hit like Leuri Garcia this year and has and agent named Boras.

So you're saying that you shouldn't just pay attention to career numbers and instead should actually focus on what a person is likely to do over the duration of a contract? That doesn't sound like you at all.

[Eminor3rd]

Of the 5, 2 hit LH, one will cost you more than Victor, and the other hit like Leuri Garcia this year and has and agent named Boras.

 

I don't think anyone's disputing that Victor is the best hitter available this year, but they are all either substantially younger, substantially cheaper, or don't come with draft pick compensation. Balta's point, I think, is that there are other options and that there are always other options.

 

I really think LaRoche is the best option. If we all agree that healthy expectations for Martinez and LaRoche are ~125 and 115 wRC+, respectively, then we're talking the difference in going with LaRoche equalling about getting 10% less offense for 50% fewer total dollars, 50% fewer years, and no draft pick compensation. You get most of the production and a bunch of money to spend on something else too.

[Balta1701]

I don't think anyone's disputing that Victor is the best hitter available this year, but they are all either substantially younger, substantially cheaper, or don't come with draft pick compensation. Balta's point, I think, is that there are other options and that there are always other options.

 

I really think LaRoche is the best option. If we all agree that healthy expectations for Martinez and LaRoche are ~125 and 115 wRC+, respectively, then we're talking the difference in going with LaRoche equalling about getting 10% less offense for 50% fewer total dollars, 50% fewer years, and no draft pick compensation. You get most of the production and a bunch of money to spend on something else too.

There's a decent chance Butler is even cheaper and his career numbers are just about as good as the other guys, the only Q I'm left with is what we do with the other lineup slots we have available. This wouldn't bother me that much if our manager was willing to put a series of righties together in the lineup but he's not, so we do need a LH bat there.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There's a decent chance Butler is even cheaper and his career numbers are just about as good as the other guys, the only Q I'm left with is what we do with the other lineup slots we have available. This wouldn't bother me that much if our manager was willing to put a series of righties together in the lineup but he's not, so we do need a LH bat there.

Having Martinez would also mean less PH in the late innings Robin would have to think about.

[Balta1701]

Having Martinez would also mean less PH in the late innings Robin would have to think about.

But more pinch runners

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I don't think anyone's disputing that Victor is the best hitter available this year, but they are all either substantially younger, substantially cheaper, or don't come with draft pick compensation. Balta's point, I think, is that there are other options and that there are always other options.

 

I really think LaRoche is the best option. If we all agree that healthy expectations for Martinez and LaRoche are ~125 and 115 wRC+, respectively, then we're talking the difference in going with LaRoche equalling about getting 10% less offense for 50% fewer total dollars, 50% fewer years, and no draft pick compensation. You get most of the production and a bunch of money to spend on something else too.

Also get no mentor for Avi and less excitement in the general fanbase for signing a superstar and we don't hurt the Tigers. Also I really hate National League hitters coming to the AL.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

But more pinch runners

HA You know I knew you'd say that and I was going to put it in my posts and say don't you dare say more pinchrunners but if we're talking DH's they pretty much all need PR's. At least the one's you mentioned do.

[Eminor3rd]

Also get no mentor for Avi and less excitement in the general fanbase for signing a superstar and we don't hurt the Tigers. Also I really hate National League hitters coming to the AL.

 

I think Abreu will be a fine mentor. Maybe LaRoche will be, too. And we know the fanbase will get excited when we win, not before (at least in any measurable sense), so I think think we should be focused on that overall.

 

Also, wasn't Victor caught up in the middle of the Avi vs. Prince Fielder debacle? Maybe he was a mediator, but it's a definite possibility that Victor does NOT like Avi, especially considering it seems like Avi was pretty clearly in the wrong. Or at least, either no one was in the wrong or Avi was in the wrong.

[southsider2k5]

I think Abreu will be a fine mentor. Maybe LaRoche will be, too. And we know the fanbase will get excited when we win, not before (at least in any measurable sense), so I think think we should be focused on that overall.

 

Also, wasn't Victor caught up in the middle of the Avi vs. Prince Fielder debacle? Maybe he was a mediator, but it's a definite possibility that Victor does NOT like Avi, especially considering it seems like Avi was pretty clearly in the wrong. Or at least, either no one was in the wrong or Avi was in the wrong.

 

Jose seems to be a pretty vocal guy and he seems to want to recruit for the team. I could see him being a leader, especially out of the Cuban Ex-pats.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think Abreu will be a fine mentor. Maybe LaRoche will be, too. And we know the fanbase will get excited when we win, not before (at least in any measurable sense), so I think think we should be focused on that overall.

 

Also, wasn't Victor caught up in the middle of the Avi vs. Prince Fielder debacle? Maybe he was a mediator, but it's a definite possibility that Victor does NOT like Avi, especially considering it seems like Avi was pretty clearly in the wrong. Or at least, either no one was in the wrong or Avi was in the wrong.

Remember the Sale/Martinez incident ? It was Avi who told Martinez that Sale thought he was getting signs from CF which is a more recent thing than the Fielder incident so I'm pretty sure Avi and Victor are friends. I think when talking mentors a fellow countryman will always be a better choice for influence.

 

My many many yrs. of being a Sox and baseball fan tell me its the intangibles that often make a difference . So while I will always applaud your logical way of looking at things taking VMart from the Tigers and a possible adjustment yr. needed from LaRoche to facing AL pitchers at his age and the publicity surrounding a VMArt signing are things that can't be ignored or pushed aside as negligible.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'd also like to point out that since I heavily rejoined the discussion the votes went from 23 for and 25 against to 25/25 . Seriously though I think that most people's minds were made up on this subject long before this thread. Any of you voters out there who were on the fence but reading the thread swayed you one way or another ?