Victor Martinez Re-signs with Tigers

[harfman77]

Hahn has stated that the Sox are targeting a left handed, middle of the order bat.

If they do not sign V. Martinez, or any other free agent this off season, whom would they target for 2016? The only one who might be available is

Chris Davis.

 

There certainly is no one within the organization, who might fill that void.

Is there someone I'm missing?

 

Jose Fernandez, Carols Gonzalez, LoMo, Pedro Alvarez, and Jay Bruce.

[Dick Allen]

Aren't Avi and Vmart friends...That's something

There could be many reasons he might want to play for the White Sox. Chicago is consistently voted favorite city by MLB players. When they are trying to woo these guys , they give a hint of what they are trying to do to improve the team. Maybe he hates Chicago. Maybe he hates White Sox players. But for anyone to say he has no reason to play for them unless they offer him significantly more money than any other team without knowing him, is just hyperbole.

 

Hahn and KW and JR have to sell these guys on winning. Of course, normallly, the highest bid wins anyway. I don't think the bid for Abreu was significantly higher than the bids from other teams. Yet, here he is.

[Jerksticks]

Hahn has stated that the Sox are targeting a left handed, middle of the order bat.

If they do not sign V. Martinez, or any other free agent this off season, whom would they target for 2016? The only one who might be available is

Chris Davis.

 

There certainly is no one within the organization, who might fill that void.

Is there someone I'm missing?

 

Sit back, relax...White Sox offseason coming your way! There will be a trade for such a guy.

[Lillian]

Jose Fernandez, Carols Gonzalez, LoMo, Pedro Alvarez, and Jay Bruce.

 

That list is very uninspiring. I would prefer a 37 year old VMart, in his second year of the contract, to any of those guys.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Lillian

[Dick Allen]

That list is very uninspiring. I would prefer a 37 year old VMart, in his second year of the contract, to any of those guys.

I agree. Whether they can get it done is another question. Here is an article the saber guys might like:

 

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/11/5/71...defying-outlier

[greg775]

The way it is now, you have a .500 roster, but can win one extra game a month, you are right there.

 

This is where I rarely disagree with Dick Allen. This roster is not a .500 roster. Far from that.

[Dick Allen]

This is where I rarely disagree with Dick Allen. This roster is not a .500 roster. Far from that.

Not yet. But by the time spring training starts, I bet most people will think it is a team that probably should be .500. Just getting to average with the bullpen should be encouraging.

[2nd_city_saint787]

This is where I rarely disagree with Dick Allen. This roster is not a .500 roster. Far from that.

 

This is where I often disagree with Greg. This roster is 2 good relievers from a .500 team.

[Lillian]

I agree. Whether they can get it done is another question. Here is an article the saber guys might like:

 

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/11/5/71...defying-outlier

 

Very interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

I've always contended that there are a lot of base hits, in pitches out of the strike zone, providing a hitter is willing to hit the ball where it's pitched.

A great "bad ball" hitter is a tremendous asset to an offense. It presents a significant challenge even to a pitcher with great command. who may be able to

hit his spot, but the hitter can still make good contact.

 

What a great technique for young hitters to try to emulate? Maybe Victor would be able to help some of our young hitters, especially Garcia.

That's another intangible that argues for signing him.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Lillian

[Lillian]

This is where I often disagree with Greg. This roster is 2 good relievers from a .500 team.

 

Yes, however one of those two may already be on the roster, with Bassitt. Perhaps even both, if Montas is used in the Pen.

Moreover, finding relievers should be easier and less expensive than finding middle of the order bats, or starters.

[Dick Allen]

Very interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

I've always contended that there are a lot of base hits, in pitches out of the strike zone, providing a hitter is willing to hit the ball where it's pitched.

A great "bad ball" hitter is a tremendous asset to an offense. It presents a significant challenge even to a pitcher with great command. wjp may be able to

hit his spot, but the hitter can still make good contact.

 

What a great technique for young hitters to try to emulate. Maybe Victor would be able to help some of our young hitters, especially Garcia.

That's another intangible that argues for signing him.

I have always thought it depended how the player was wired. When he was in his prime, Frank Thomas used to take meatballs a couple inches off the plate. Many people thought, and probably correctly, he should expand his zone a bit in certain situations. The problem is, what if it led him to swing at other pitches, farther out of the zone? If it isn't broke don't fix it, is what the White Sox did, and how could anyone argue?

 

But back to Victor, he hits pitches out of the zone at an incredible clip. His bat isn't slowing as he is ripping 95+ heat better than anyone. The fangraphs said, the contact rate should be declining in his 30's, but his has been rising. He's already an outlier. I think he is really good at least 2 more seasons myself, probably 3, and has to be as good of a bet as any to be hitting as a 39 year old, although if I were offering him a contract, that 4th year wouldn't be guaranteed unless some things were accomplished in the first 3.

[Balta1701]

This is where I often disagree with Greg. This roster is 2 good relievers from a .500 team.

I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes.

[Lillian]

I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes.

 

So, you don't think that Sale, Quintana, Rodon and whomever else they use for the #3 and #4 starters, comprise even a .500 starting staff, providing the bullpen

doesn't throw away quality starts? I know that Rodon may not be able to provide 30 plus starts, nevertheless I just don't have that little confidence in our starters.

Hell, even Danks can give you quality starts, in about 60% of his outings.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Lillian

[Dick Allen]

I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes.

Are you expecting a rainout that isn't made up? And if they are 4 games under .500. that is 2 wins from .500, so pretty much the same thing.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Dick Allen

[greg775]

I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes.

I'd say five to 10 under .500 depending on how the season goes.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I totally disagree with this. This roster is 2 good relievers away from still being 5 games under .500 in my eyes.

 

Meh, I'm just relatively speaking off last year. We finished 8 games under .500, I think adding 2 good relievers makes the Sox pen at least a middle of the pack bullpen. Sox lead the league with 32 losses from the pen, middle of the pack in that category lost 24. Boom 8 wins.

 

I'm somewhat over exaggerating there, yes, but I truly do believe that with a better bullpen this team would already be significantly better.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'd say five to 10 under .500 depending on how the season goes.

 

So you think we're gonna get worse when adding 2 good bullpen arms???

 

[GreenSox]

So, you don't think that Sale, Quintana, Rodon and whomever else they use for the #3 and #4 starters, comprise even a .500 starting staff, providing the bullpen

doesn't throw away quality starts? I know that Rodon may not be able to provide 30 plus starts, nevertheless I just don't have that little confidence in our starters.

Hell, even Danks can give you quality starts, in about 60% of his outings.

We don't know about Rodon. Noesi, if he repeats, is fine as a #5. They need 2 more 3/4 types. And going into a season with exactly 5 is foolhardy. There will be injuries. It's also another reason not to trade the pitching prospects we do have (esp for declining/mediocre veterans). You need a consistently productive pipeline of young pitching.

This roster, with no DH, no LF, uncertainty at 2B, dubious D at 3rd, missing 2 starters and whatever in the pen is not a .500 roster.

LF is the real challenge here, in my eyes.

Edited November 6, 2014 by GreenSox

[Lillian]

We don't know about Rodon. Noesi, if he repeats, is fine as a #5. They need 2 more 3/4 types. And going into a season with exactly 5 is foolhardy. There will be injuries. It's also another reason not to trade the pitching prospects we do have (esp for declining/mediocre veterans). You need a consistently productive pipeline of young pitching.

This roster, with no DH, no LF, uncertainty at 2B, dubious D at 3rd, missing 2 starters and whatever in the pen is not a .500 roster.

LF is the real challenge here, in my eyes.

 

Yes, but I thought that we have been debating how to use the significant payroll flexibility to fill those holes.

[Eminor3rd]

I agree. Whether they can get it done is another question. Here is an article the saber guys might like:

 

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/11/5/71...defying-outlier

 

I think this is the TL;DR crux of the article:

 

Still, it all goes back to Victor Martinez's insane ability to make contact on pitches outside the zone without sacrificing power, and the fact that this is normally the key area where hitters suffer as they age. Martinez hasn't—and not only that, he's actually improved. So, there are a couple ways to look at this:

 

- Martinez, clearly, is an outlier. His bat control, and the power that goes into it, are otherworldly and incomparable. And even if he does start to slide on that key O-Contact% metric, he's starting from such a high point that he'll still be a offensive player for a few years to come.

 

- On the other hand—how much of Martinez's offensive production is derived from his ability to make contact on pitches outside the zone? What if this isn't a gradual thing, and that once it goes, it really goes? It's possible that, if Martinez does slide in this area, the rate at which he swings at balls outside the zone doesn't decline accordingly—creating the value nosedive we all fear.

 

He's definitely a fascinating case. Is Vlad Guerrero a good comp? I'd hate to set expectations against an n of 1, though. I might be worse than an n of zero.

[LDF]

 

wow, 29 pages and this debate is still going strong.

 

I have been reading and paying attention, yous guys had me change my mind

several time over.

 

great debate. great points being made.

[caulfield12]

If "contact skills" was translatable, it surely didn't happen with Keppinger's example.

 

Or when we had AJ and Pierre on the team.

 

It has to be a systemic, team-based change of hitting philosophy, like we saw in combination with Pods and Iguchi and the non-power hitters in 2005. The Royals are the perfect example...even Gordon wasn't a GREAT hitter last year, but they make a lot of contact at most spots in the line-up (obviously Moustakas and Hosmer have a ways to go) and have a team with lots of speed to take advantage of those balls put in play.

 

One of the reasons that started happening was Escobar was moved to the top of the line-up and became less of a free swinger, and then Aoki's such an unorthodox contact hitter behind him it rubbed off on Cain too, who started to make better contact and decided to be a "pure" hitter rather than high strikeout/15-18 homers projection. Butler as well in the 2nd half, even though his power numbers were way down.

Edited November 6, 2014 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think this is the TL;DR crux of the article:

 

 

 

He's definitely a fascinating case. Is Vlad Guerrero a good comp? I'd hate to set expectations against an n of 1, though. I might be worse than an n of zero.

I have no idea what you just said . But the article tells me something I didn't know . VMart is a great bad ball hitter. The rest sort of confirms what I saw with my own eyes and with his stats. There are absolutely 0 signs of decline at the moment. I could point to LaRoche's last 2 years of production against lefties as a sign of decline but nothing pops up for VMart.

 

Reference to Lillian : I don't think that particular talent can be taught , because there are guys who K a ton with pitches in the zone let alone out of the zone. But maybe there is something in his approach that can be taught like when to look for certain pitches and in what zones. I'd like to see which pitches he is the most successful at hitting out of the zone . Maybe it's that he's learned to recognize, for instance, pitches that will be below the strike zone and zeros in on pitches between knee high and belt high and what zone to look for them . So if he's looking inside or outside he can still react to a ball even off the plate because it's part of the area he's zoning in on in his head thereby eliminating 75% other zones.

 

But regardless if pitch recognition could be taught or how to be a smart disciplined hitter there would be a lot less K's and Tank would be a superstar.

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I disagree. I think that because this team is at least a full season away from contention no matter what they do, they might as well stock up the farm system as much as possible this year while also building toward a contender. Yes, it means losing a higher pick next year in all likelihood, however, when you're shifting toward contention, building the farm becomes less of a concern, though it should still exist as a concern.

Really surprised to hear you say that. You talk of building the farm yet you'd be willing to give up a 1st and 2nd rounder over a 2nd and 3rd rounder only a year apart so it really makes no difference in the contention window but means very much in the talent level.

 

Luckily I think Hahn knows that if theres going to be a large influx of talent this is the year to do it . If you need more talent next year, then at least Hahn's got more tradeable assets because right now we can get very little in trade unless we trade prospects and don't think Hahn will be doing that either unless he thinks he's fleecing someone.

 

So basically thats 3 factors that say add as much talent as you can this year :

 

1. Protected 1st round pick

2. Low payroll

3. Lack of tradeable assets outside of the core and prospects.

 

This is not an " All In " approach as some have labled it. It's just the most logical conclusion to come to when looking at factors that matter.

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dam8610]

Really surprised to hear you say that. You talk of building the farm yet you'd be willing to give up a 1st and 2nd rounder over a 2nd and 3rd rounder only a year apart so it really makes no difference in the contention window but means very much in the talent level.

 

Luckily I think Hahn knows that if theres going to be a large influx of talent this is the year to do it . If you need more talent next year, then at least Hahn's got more tradeable assets because right now we can get very little in trade unless we trade prospects and don't think Hahn will be doing that either unless he thinks he's fleecing someone.

 

So basically thats 3 factors that say add as much talent as you can this year :

 

1. Protected 1st round pick

2. Low payroll

3. Lack of tradeable assets outside of the core and prospects.

 

This is not an " All In " approach as some have labled it. It's just the most logical conclusion to come to when looking at factors that matter.

 

Signing Victor Martinez is the definition of an all-in move, because not only are you committing a significant portion of your payroll dollars, but you're committing them to a guy who is highly likely to produce diminishing returns over the life of the contract, because players in any sport tend to age like milk after 35, with the rare exception that usually ends up in a Hall of Fame. Further, you're taking assets away from your farm system by signing him.

 

Note that I am not advocating against signing free agents this offseason, nor am I advocating against a strategy that takes assets away from the farm system. My point is that the timing has to be right, and right now is not the right time.