Victor Martinez Re-signs with Tigers

[GreenSox]

Yes, but I thought that we have been debating how to use the significant payroll flexibility to fill those holes.

I hope we can. Unfortunately, we'll get none out of the FA market, other than a starter (and I'm not sure a mid-tier starter is worth giving that draft pick up). A heyward up this year would be tempting.

and V Mart is tempting. I would probably not sign him, but have no real objection if they do.

[Lillian]

I have no idea what you just said . But the article tells me something I didn't know . VMart is a great bad ball hitter. The rest sort of confirms what I saw with my own eyes and with his stats. There are absolutely 0 signs of decline at the moment. I could point to LaRoche's last 2 years of production against lefties as a sign of decline but nothing pops up for VMart.

 

Reference to Lillian : I don't think that particular talent can be taught , because there are guys who K a ton with pitches in the zone let alone out of the zone. But maybe there is something in his approach that can be taught like when to look for certain pitches and in what zones. I'd like to see which pitches he is the most successful at hitting out of the zone . Maybe it's that he's learned to recognize, for instance, pitches that will be below the strike zone and zeros in on pitches between knee high and belt high and what zone to look for them . So if he's looking inside or outside he can still react to a ball even off the plate because it's part of the area he's zoning in on in his head thereby eliminating 75% other zones.

 

But regardless if pitch recognition could be taught or how to be a smart disciplined hitter there would be a lot less K's and Tank would be a superstar.

 

Isn't a key component of being able to hit "bad pitches," the willingness to hit the ball where it's pitched? For example; going the other way, on an outside pitch. There are a lot of base hits in those kinds of pitches, but not if the batter tries to pull them.

 

I'm reminded of Adam Dunn. It was always very frustrating to me to watch him take outside pitches, which he could have easily hit to the, virtually undefended, left side. A hitter with poor discipline tries to pull that pitch, and rolls over on it, for a ground out, to the pull side.

Often, Dunn did demonstrate good plate discipline by taking that pitch for a ball. However, he could have had a double, by simply taking the pitch the other way. Moreover, by not trying to pull the ball, there is more time to recognize the speed, location and movement of the pitch. That extra time helps offset any loss of bad speed, which comes with age. Perhaps that is what Victor does, and at least in part, why he is such a great hitter.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Lillian

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Signing Victor Martinez is the definition of an all-in move, because not only are you committing a significant portion of your payroll dollars, but you're committing them to a guy who is highly likely to produce diminishing returns over the life of the contract, because players in any sport tend to age like milk after 35, with the rare exception that usually ends up in a Hall of Fame. Further, you're taking assets away from your farm system by signing him.

 

Note that I am not advocating against signing free agents this offseason, nor am I advocating against a strategy that takes assets away from the farm system. My point is that the timing has to be right, and right now is not the right time.

My argument was more for signing free agents this year as opposed to next year as you advocated because it's closer to contention whether it's VMart or not. The 3 things I listed are very important as far as when is the right time to make your moves. To my way of thinking way more important then the contention window. And as others have pointed out the Sox have some history of having a bad record the year before they make the playoffs.

 

But VMart does not take away "assets" he takes away a 2nd round pick or later if the Sox sign another QO offer free agent before they were to sign him . I just don't understand what free agents won't produce "diminishing returns" since most are over 30 already or be a signing with multiple warts to begin with. The top free agents might get 5/6 year contracts for over $100M. Others could come from the NL which I am always leery about. At least VMart knows the league , the pitchers and the opponents we play the most since he's from the same division.

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Isn't a key component of being able to hit "bad pitches," the willingness to hit the ball where it's pitched? For example; going the other way, on an outside pitch. There are a lot of base hits in those kinds of pitches, but not if the batter tries to pull them.

 

I'm reminded of Adam Dunn. It was always very frustrating to me to watch him take outside pitches, which he could have easily hit to the, virtually undefended, left side. A hitter with poor discipline tries to pull that pitch, and rolls over on it, for a ground out, to the pull side.

Often, Dunn did demonstrate good plate discipline by taking that pitch for a ball. However, he could have had a double, by simply taking the pitch the other way. Moreover, by not trying to pull the ball, there is more time to recognize the speed, location and movement of the pitch. That extra time helps offset any loss of bad speed, which comes with age. Perhaps that is what Victor does, and at least in part, why he is such a great hitter.

The key component to hitting bad pitches as it is with any pitches is to be able to not swing and miss and as we have seen over the years the strikeout rate is rising dramatically which makes VMart such an anomaly. He was the only player in the ML to walk more than he K'ed.

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[LDF]

Isn't a key component of being able to hit "bad pitches," the willingness to hit the ball where it's pitched? For example; going the other way, on an outside pitch. There are a lot of base hits in those kinds of pitches, but not if the batter tries to pull them.

 

I'm reminded of Adam Dunn. It was always very frustrating to me to watch him take outside pitches, which he could have easily hit to the, virtually undefended, left side. A hitter with poor discipline tries to pull that pitch, and rolls over on it, for a ground out, to the pull side.

Often, Dunn did demonstrate good plate discipline by taking that pitch for a ball. However, he could have had a double, by simply taking the pitch the other way. Moreover, by not trying to pull the ball, there is more time to recognize the speed, location and movement of the pitch. That extra time helps offset any loss of bad speed, which comes with age. Perhaps that is what Victor does, and at least in part, why he is such a great hitter.

 

Lillian, you have made many excellent posts here on this subject.

 

I am keying on 1 thing. to me, it is not the willingness to hitting the ball where

it is pitch. it has more to do with the ability to have the eye and hand

coordination to be able to pick up the ball where it is. also having the

ability in not only seeing it but to have the quick instincts to swing in

those micro seconds the hitter has when the batter knows to swing.

 

perfect example, one the best all around hitter I have seen, at least in the sox

uni. Big Frank, how many times did he swing at pitches he did not like but was

too close to let it go bye. he worked the count until he saw a pitch he like. he had

a fast bat and that is not doing justice to him.

 

bottom line. VMart may be one of those few hitter and with mild power (16 hrs) . but

the cost / yrs in the salary is my problem.

 

 

[Lillian]

The key component to hitting bad pitches as it is with any pitches is to be able to not swing and miss and as we have seen over the years the strikeout rate is rising dramatically which makes VMart such an anomaly. He was the only player in the ML to walk more than he K'ed.

 

Swinging and missing is only part of the problem. Isn't it also trying to do something with a pitch, which doesn't lend itself to the hitters intent?

That's what I mean by the willingness to take an outside pitch, the other way, to the opposite field.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Lillian

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Anyone remember when VMart signed with Detroit ? I was reading that back then the Sox offered him more money than the Tigers along the lines of 3/$48M but he chose the Tigers for more years less AAV and that Adam Dunn was actually our fall back signing.

 

Hasn't Hahn hinted that the Sox could be going after someone we have pursued in the past ?

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Swinging and missing is only part of the problem. Isn't it also trying to do something with a pitch, which doesn't lend itself to the hitters intent?

That's what I mean by the willingness to take an outside pitch, the other way, to the opposite field.

No matter how much you want to hit and do something with it you still have to hit it 1st . If it was easy we'd see more . 300 hitters and less K's but its extremely difficult considering even the best hitters fail 7 of 10 times.

 

I'd recommend reading Ted Williams ' The Science of Hitting " which Tony Gwynn read in HS and he idolized Williams or Gwynn's own book " The Art of Hitting . " But this Deadspin article ( http://deadspin.com/how-tony-gwynn-cracked...lege-1591491368 ) on Gwynn should be insightful. Every hitting coach should know these books inside and out and every organization should require every hitter in the system to read them.

Edited November 7, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[witesoxfan]

Anyone remember when VMart signed with Detroit ? I was reading that back then the Sox offered him more money than the Tigers along the lines of 3/$48M but he chose the Tigers for more years less AAV and that Adam Dunn was actually our fall back signing.

 

Hasn't Hahn hinted that the Sox could be going after someone we have pursued in the past ?

 

Pretty sure the Sox had interest, but Martinez signed so early in the offseason that it surprised the Sox and they never actually contacted him. They were going to make him a similar or better offer than the one they made to Dunn.

[LDF]

Pretty sure the Sox had interest, but Martinez signed so early in the offseason that it surprised the Sox and they never actually contacted him. They were going to make him a similar or better offer than the one they made to Dunn.

 

you are correct, the sox did have more money on the table and was very

interested in him.

 

I can't remember why he liked det better or why he didn't want the sox.

[Balta1701]

I've been pondering this manifesto for a while, time to write it.

 

Right now, the White Sox have 4 regulars who are clearly above average performers for their roles: Abreu, Sale, Q, Alexei. Then, we have a 2nd tier of guys who have upside but have questions - Garcia, Eaton, Jones (injury and youth). You're ok with competing using that group of guys, but you do want to know what your backup plan is.

 

Then there's a level of guys who were adequate contributors last year. They won't win a pennant but they won't lose them in their current roles if they repeat last season's numbers, but also no guarantee they won't take a step back. This counts Flowers, Gillaspie, Noesi, and pretty much everyone in the bullpen. Semien/Sanchez fit here as well due to being young guys who we're uncertain what we'll get from them.

 

Then there are, by my count, 5 regular positions that are gaping holes. One corner outfielder, one DH, a #3-level starting pitcher, and at least 2 high leverage reliever spots (one lefty and one righty, and you could convince me we need more than that).

 

By my math, we start the season at around $60 million in commitments to fill out a roster, without counting Abreu's signing bonus that we don't know how it is booked and assuming Viciedo is dropped. Let's assume the Sox boost payroll significantly from last year and get to an opening day salary of $100 million - that leaves just over $40 million to spend and 5 major positions of need.

 

That averages out to $8 million per player for each of those 5 positions.

 

Now let's play with these numbers to understand how hard of a limit that is. First,if we paid $15 million a year for Victor Martinez, that leaves $25 million remaining for the other 4 slots, so we're down to $6 million per positions. This should already looks like a problem, we'd be paying a premium for DH while leaving the other positions starting to look weak. Would you have confidence in a $6 million LF being asolid above average player or is that LF going to fit in that 3rd tier of "maybe you can win some games with him but he's not going to carry the team"? I'd say much more likely the latter.

 

Maybe you looked at dividing it evenly and say "the relievers should be cheaper than that and that clears up money for Martinez". On the other hand, we saw what a $3.5 million lefty did for us last year - Downs has been described in this thread as a poor purchase, scraping the bottom of the barrel, and something we shouldn't do again. Clearly we have to do better than that. Meanwhile, guys who could fill the back end of the bullpen/closer's spot are getting $7 million options picked up (Wade Davis) and $15 million qualifying offers (Robertson). Finding a quality bullpen pitcher even for $6 million seems like a a gamble in that market - counting on someone to overperform a contract again.

 

In the starting rotation, maybe Rodon can contribute and fill some of the gap, but there's no way we could possibly count on a guy who has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season to fill a #3 starter's spot on a contending team. His arm just isn't that stretched out, and no one else in this rotation is going to be strong enough to turn Rodon + Bassitt into the equivalent of a "mid-rotation starter". To compete this year, we need someone who can fill that role.

 

On top of that, I haven't considered the bench much, but I don't know who the backup catcher is either, and a contending team would need to fill that role as well, adding another potential cost.

 

Maybe you can push the total team payroll to $120 million+, now you probably have the money to cover all those positions with solid contributors and even go after Martinez, but look at the rest of the roster.

 

I like what Noesi brought to the table last year and I think he could have a solid future for us, but can anyone honestly say they are 100% certain that Noesi and Danks can be contributors to the rotation on a pennant chasing team? So much so that they're willing to risk a $120 million payroll on Noesi being a solid starter? In this thread, Noesi was included in the list of positions we'd like to upgrade for good reason; you can't have that much confidence in him.

 

Similarly, in other active threads we've had people willing to spend $10 million+ per season on Headley and trying to find upgrades over Flowers as well. So, even if we spent $120 million+, there are enough major question marks on this roster that you wouldn't be surprised if this wound up a team in the low 80s in wins because it would still be relying on guys like Flowers, Gillaspie, Putnam, Noesi, Danks, Surkamp, Garcia, and Eaton, Semien/Sanchez, all of whom have question marks.

 

That's the long version of why I can't make any sense of a free agency buy of Martinez on its own - it seems destined to fail unless we take one drastic step - filling one of those slots through trade. Furthermore, it can't just be any trade, it has to be a trade for a top-flight contributor at a position of need who is pre-arbitration and can contribute right away. We can't trade for someone like Jay Bruce who is useful but fairly paid because $12 million next year is at the top end of what we have available to spend per position in free agency.

 

In other words, we'd need to open the floodgates in a trade - targeting someone who I can't even conceive of us getting, by doing something like packaging Tim Anderson + Montas + Hawkins and emptying the top 10 in the system. If that was done, it would give us enough flexibility to sign a Victor Martinez and possibly upgrade at 3b to someone we'd have confidence in, but that's the price we'd need to be willing to pay before a deal with Martinez fits where the rest of our roster sits.

 

This could change if the team could clear Danks's salary somehow, but no sign of that happening without taking another bad contract back so far.

[southsider2k5]

I have no idea what you just said . But the article tells me something I didn't know . VMart is a great bad ball hitter. The rest sort of confirms what I saw with my own eyes and with his stats. There are absolutely 0 signs of decline at the moment. I could point to LaRoche's last 2 years of production against lefties as a sign of decline but nothing pops up for VMart.

 

Reference to Lillian : I don't think that particular talent can be taught , because there are guys who K a ton with pitches in the zone let alone out of the zone. But maybe there is something in his approach that can be taught like when to look for certain pitches and in what zones. I'd like to see which pitches he is the most successful at hitting out of the zone . Maybe it's that he's learned to recognize, for instance, pitches that will be below the strike zone and zeros in on pitches between knee high and belt high and what zone to look for them . So if he's looking inside or outside he can still react to a ball even off the plate because it's part of the area he's zoning in on in his head thereby eliminating 75% other zones.

 

But regardless if pitch recognition could be taught or how to be a smart disciplined hitter there would be a lot less K's and Tank would be a superstar.

 

Just like anything, it is a talent that is practiced. In the modern age it has gone away, as more and more are taught to take pitches out of the zone, instead of trying to hit them, as the value of OBP has increased. The reason that a guy like Victor, or Jose Abreu for example, can hit those kind of pitches, is because they have practiced hitting them.

[witesoxfan]

you are correct, the sox did have more money on the table and was very

interested in him.

 

I can't remember why he liked det better or why he didn't want the sox.

 

If the White Sox made an offer, it was 4 years, $48 mill.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/tige...r-martinez.html

 

We also have this post on our site indicating that the White Sox never made an offer to Victor Martinez - http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=2288912

 

This is awful reporting.

 

The Sox have offers out to bats on the free agent market, but certainly not Victor Martinez. If there was an offer of this size out to a slugger, which I have no idea of offer size, I can say with almost 100% certainty its not VMART.

 

I hate how one "source" names us and then 100 more run with it like its fact. I wish someone would fact check one of these days.

 

 

So the two options we have are:

1) The Sox made an offer less than that of the offer Detroit made

2) The Sox did not make an offer

 

It's very easy to see why Martinez signed with Detroit.

[Eminor3rd]

 

Yeah, it just seems like we're a little short here. Feels like the plan should be to do whatever we can to get competitive via trade for 2015, fill in the holes with low-commitment guys inf ree agency, and then take that core all the way in 2016. VMart-type signings to be considered next offseason.

[LDF]

If the White Sox made an offer, it was 4 years, $48 mill.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/tige...r-martinez.html

 

We also have this post on our site indicating that the White Sox never made an offer to Victor Martinez - http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=2288912

 

 

 

 

So the two options we have are:

1) The Sox made an offer less than that of the offer Detroit made

2) The Sox did not make an offer

 

It's very easy to see why Martinez signed with Detroit.

 

you again may be right on this and with links. i will say this with the idea of countering

you questions.

 

i can see Det with what 13 mil over sox at 12 mil

 

I also and would bet this is a best case, the sox not offering anything b/c of the PED.

 

JR is that kind of person. offering him the money is like condoning what he did.

[Dick Allen]

Anyone remember when VMart signed with Detroit ? I was reading that back then the Sox offered him more money than the Tigers along the lines of 3/$48M but he chose the Tigers for more years less AAV and that Adam Dunn was actually our fall back signing.

 

Hasn't Hahn hinted that the Sox could be going after someone we have pursued in the past ?

The one thing I remember was the rumor was Dunn was signing with Detroit.

[Lillian]

 

Yeah, it just seems like we're a little short here. Feels like the plan should be to do whatever we can to get competitive via trade for 2015, fill in the holes with low-commitment guys inf ree agency, and then take that core all the way in 2016. VMart-type signings to be considered next offseason.

 

The problem is; there are no "VMart-type' signings in next years free agent class. Not if, by "VMart-type", you mean extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters, who strike out very seldom.

[Balta1701]

The problem is; there are no "VMart-type' signings in next years free agent class. Not if, by "VMart-type", you mean extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters, who strike out very seldom.

Here's the crazy thing...you'd have said the exact same thing last offseason about this offseason's Free Agent class - that there's not going to be any big time run producing hitters available, and that statement would have included Victor Martinez. At this point last season, Victor Martinez didn't look like a guy who would be a big time, run producing, high demand free agent.

[Dick Allen]

Here's the crazy thing...you'd have said the exact same thing last offseason about this offseason's Free Agent class - that there's not going to be any big time run producing hitters available, and that statement would have included Victor Martinez. At this point last season, Victor Martinez didn't look like a guy who would be a big time, run producing, high demand free agent.

I disagree. He has been a really good hitter for a very long time. He made himself some money, and probably lessened the fears of his aging, and any lingering effects of his knee surgery, but he has been a really good hitter. He hit .361 the second half of 2013.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

I disagree. He has been a really good hitter for a very long time. He made himself some money, and probably lessened the fears of his aging, and any lingering effects of his knee surgery, but he has been a really good hitter. He hit .361 the second half of 2013.

With a .371 babip during that 2nd half. His career number is .316, and it was .313 on the whole 2013 season. You'd have looked at Victor Martinez and said he's a decent DH, he'll contribute, he gets a lot of hits, but he's not a guy worth breaking the bank for.

 

Then he more than doubled his HR total, pushing up his batting average and everything else with it in 2014 and that remains literally the only reason he's on this list.

[Dick Allen]

With a .371 babip during that 2nd half. His career number is .316, and it was .313 on the whole 2013 season. You'd have looked at Victor Martinez and said he's a decent DH, he'll contribute, he gets a lot of hits, but he's not a guy worth breaking the bank for.

 

Then he more than doubled his HR total, pushing up his batting average and everything else with it in 2014 and that remains literally the only reason he's on this list.

162 game average for his 12 year career:

 

21 HR

103 RBI

.306 AVG.

.373 OBP

.475 SLG.

 

If he had an average year for him, he would have received a real good contract.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

The problem is; there are no "VMart-type' signings in next years free agent class. Not if, by "VMart-type", you mean extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters, who strike out very seldom.

 

Nobody strikes out as little as Martinez does, so yeah, you're right on that. Just because guys don't strike out doesn't automatically make them good hitters though. However, as long as we can take out the phrase "strike out very seldom" (because a 15-20% strikeout rate is the average for a MLB hitter at this point), and while this list will change in the next 12 months, there are plenty of players who qualify as "extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016...ree-agents.html

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Nobody strikes out as little as Martinez does, so yeah, you're right on that. Just because guys don't strike out doesn't automatically make them good hitters though. However, as long as we can take out the phrase "strike out very seldom" (because a 15-20% strikeout rate is the average for a MLB hitter at this point), and while this list will change in the next 12 months, there are plenty of players who qualify as "extraordinary, professional, big run producing hitters."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016...ree-agents.html

To show how much the game has changed, Martinez is the only qualified hitter who walked more than he fanned.

[Balta1701]

To show how much the game has changed, Martinez is the only qualified hitter who walked more than he fanned.

Which, again, has now happened exactly 2 times in his career, continuing to enforce my point that the desire for him remains based on a ridiculous performance last year that the team signing him is unlikely to get.

[Dick Allen]

Which, again, has now happened exactly 2 times in his career, continuing to enforce my point that the desire for him remains based on a ridiculous performance last year that the team signing him is unlikely to get.

BS. His average season would look very nice in the middle of the White Sox line up, and may make some pitchers pitch to Abreu. His 162 game averger year is very similar to Carlos Beltran., who as a free agent, was 1 year older than Victor, and received $45 million for 3 years.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Dick Allen