Victor Martinez Re-signs with Tigers

[Eminor3rd]

Amazing how you try to spin this. His 86 was when he was injured in 2008. Other than that year and 2013 when he was coming back from missing a season due to an offseason injury and struggled to start but hit .361/.413./500 the second half, his wRC+ has been over 120 every year since 2004 when it was 119. A consistently good hitter who Steamer is projectimg to put up a 139 next year. I am getting this stuff for Fangraphs. I thought you would be impressed, you aren't going to tell me they are full of s*** are you?

 

Dick Allen, please try to read and comprehend my entire argument instead of picking one word out of the first sentence and going on a tangent. The 86 was just factually his lowest, it had almost NOTHING to do with my argument. I did not make an argument that the guy might put up an 86 wRC+ any time soon. I have accepted that the guy has been around 120 his entire career and stated it plainly. He IS a consistently good hitter.

 

But according to everything on the internet so far, he's not commanding a contract in line with a 120 wRC+ DH. That's that's the issue. I don't hate the guy, I just don't want to pay him like he's going to put up a 166 wRC+ for four years when he isn't even likely to do it once.

[Dick Allen]

Dick Allen, please try to read and comprehend my entire argument instead of picking one word out of the first sentence and going on a tangent. The 86 was just factually his lowest, it had almost NOTHING to do with my argument. I did not make an argument that the guy might put up an 86 wRC+ any time soon. I have accepted that the guy has been around 120 his entire career and stated it plainly. He IS a consistently good hitter.

 

But according to everything on the internet so far, he's not commanding a contract in line with a 120 wRC+ DH. That's that's the issue. I don't hate the guy, I just don't want to pay him like he's going to put up a 166 wRC+ for four years when he isn't even likely to do it once.

And no one is expecting him to put up a 166. I'll take the 120 and roll with it.

[Balta1701]

And no one is expecting him to put up a 166. I'll take the 120 and roll with it.

For $15 million per year? Adam Dunn put up a 115 RC+ in 2012. Was that a $12 million performance?

[Dick Allen]

For $15 million per year? Adam Dunn put up a 115 RC+ in 2012. Was that a $12 million performance?

A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years.

 

IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez.

 

I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old.

 

Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4.

[Balta1701]

A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years.

 

IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez.

 

I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old.

 

Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4.

Paragraph 4: Thinking this guy will fall off a cliff because Paul Konerko fell off a cliff is short sighted.

Paragraph 3: This guy won't fall off a cliff, look at Torii Hunter, he didn't fall off a cliff.

[Eminor3rd]

A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years.

 

IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez.

 

I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old.

 

Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4.

 

Were YOU happy with 2012 Adam Dunn? Do you recommend we should try to buy 2012 Adam Dunn at $15m per year for four years?

 

Also, it's NOT riskier trying to buy low on short term guys (excluding Keppinger from your example because he does not fit the mold in any way) because if the worst happens, you can see how easy it was to get those guys off the books. We tried with them, they failed, and they're gone. Our commitments to them have not prevented us from doing anything else. It is, by definition, LESS risky.

 

But it's a strawman to compare the two anyway -- you're not arguing with people who don't want to spend money, you're arguing with people who don;t want to spend money on Victor Martinez. The choice is not "VMart or Felipe Paulino" like you're suggesting.

 

You are correct in saying that eventually the Sox will need to step up and take some risk, but that does NOT mean that we should act like money is burning a hole in our pockets. No one gives a s*** how rich JR is, but we ALL KNOW that there is a cap on the total amount of money the team is going to spend, like it or not, and so we want them to spend it wisely.

 

RE: this line: "but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided." Give me a break. Are you going to suggest that Paul Konerko is the only example of late 30's age-related decline?

[Dick Allen]

Paragraph 4: Thinking this guy will fall off a cliff because Paul Konerko fell off a cliff is short sighted.

Paragraph 3: This guy won't fall off a cliff, look at Torii Hunter, he didn't fall off a cliff.

I used Hunter because there was a post or 2 thinking maybe he can help the White Sox now. We found out this year that the White Sox doctors didn't think Paulie would hold up the entire contract he signed after the 2005 season. I also have pointed out several others in other threads, including Harold Baines, who were very productive. Steamer is projecting a 139 wRC+ for Martinez next year.

 

I broke out my Baseball Prospectus 2010 edition which stated Paulie had old player skills and his days of being a productive player were OVA!He was pretty awesome the next 2.5 years until his wrist surgery and other physical issues, including a balky back.

 

 

If the White Sox sign Billy Butler, I will project April 24th as the date people get sick of watching him groundout to SS.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Were YOU happy with 2012 Adam Dunn? Do you recommend we should try to buy 2012 Adam Dunn at $15m per year for four years?

 

Also, it's NOT riskier trying to buy low on short term guys (excluding Keppinger from your example because he does not fit the mold in any way) because if the worst happens, you can see how easy it was to get those guys off the books. We tried with them, they failed, and they're gone. Our commitments to them have not prevented us from doing anything else. It is, by definition, LESS risky.

 

But it's a strawman to compare the two anyway -- you're not arguing with people who don't want to spend money, you're arguing with people who don;t want to spend money on Victor Martinez. The choice is not "VMart or Felipe Paulino" like you're suggesting.

 

You are correct in saying that eventually the Sox will need to step up and take some risk, but that does NOT mean that we should act like money is burning a hole in our pockets. No one gives a s*** how rich JR is, but we ALL KNOW that there is a cap on the total amount of money the team is going to spend, like it or not, and so we want them to spend it wisely.

 

RE: this line: "but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided." Give me a break. Are you going to suggest that Paul Konerko is the only example of late 30's age-related decline?

Yet you do the same thing you are ripping me of when you clamour for Russell Martin. GMAB.

 

Adding mediocre players to a roster is not the way to win. Nothing suggests Victor Martinez is a mediocre player.

Edited November 3, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

I used Hunter because there was a post or 2 thinking maybe he can help the White Sox now. We found out this year that the White Sox doctors didn't think Paulie would hold up the entire contract he signed after the 2005 season. I also have pointed out several others in other threads, including Harold Baines, who were very productive. Steamer is projecting a 139 wRC+ for Martinez next year.

 

I broke out my Baseball Prospectus 2010 edition which stated Paulie had old player skills and his days of being a productive player were OVA!He was pretty awesome the next 2.5 years until his wrist surgery and other physical issues, including a balky back.

 

 

If the White Sox sign Billy Butler, I will project April 24th as the date people get sick of watching him groundout to SS.

It's really impressive that you reject any logic that says the normal aging path for players is breaking down by age 35+ and then continue to cite specific players who didn't break down as though it means something.

[Balta1701]

Yet you do the same thing you are ripping me of when you clamour for Russell Martin. GMAB.

 

Adding mediocre players to a roster is not the way to win. Nothing suggests Victor Martinez is a mediocre player.

Russell Martin has outperformed Victor Martinez in each of the last 2 seasons?

[Dick Allen]

It's really impressive that you reject any logic that says the normal aging path for players is breaking down by age 35+ and then continue to cite specific players who didn't break down as though it means something.

If Martinez was the typical guy breaking down, can you explain to me how he has been able to do what he has been able to do the last season and a half?

 

Every career is terminal. Victor has the skillset that seems to age better than most.

 

If the Sox sign him, I will be very happy. Some will be as happy, and some will be upset apparently. Pretty much how it is with almost every player.

Edited November 3, 2014 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

I don't think it was drug-related at all, I think he just had a really awesome, non-repeatable year. He IS a really good hitter, but it's just impossible to rationally argue he's THIS good. And unfortunately, the level of his recent performance is going to drive his salary requirements, and his age make him a higher risk than normal anyway.

 

I mean someone else around here said it perfectly a while back: Oh, he's a really good hitter though? So was Paul Konerko. Eventually, age catches up. If Victor had put up another 125 wRC+ and was looking for 2/24m without draft pick compensation, then I think he'd be a really reasonable risk to take. But if all these rumors are true, 4/65m or whatever is just such a huge gamble for a guy that has a lot of red flags and, to be honest, isn't likely to "put us over the top" at this point anyway.

 

saying drugs without proof in unpardonable. i just don't trust those numbers

i definitely trust that he can repeat and i don't trust the situation. esp with the

amount of salary he is wanting.

 

having a good yr is one having a great yr esp in a contract yr. you have

to think ummmmm

[LDF]

And no one is expecting him to put up a 166. I'll take the 120 and roll with it.

 

let me add, he wants to get paid for that 166. or else he would

be happy with a 13 mill contract.

[Balta1701]

If Martinez was the typical guy breaking down, can you explain to me how he has been able to do what he has been able to do the last season and a half?

 

Every career is terminal. Victor has the skillset that seems to age better than most.

 

If the Sox sign him, I will be very happy. Some will be as happy, and some will be upset apparently. Pretty much how it is with almost every player.

You keep asserting this, can you give something other than anecdotal names to say it?

[Dick Allen]

let me add, he wants to get paid for that 166. or else he would

be happy with a 13 mill contract.

Pretty much everyone would like to be paid like that. If he does, good for him. The reality is he will have to find someone to pay him like that. .306/.373/.475 . Those are his career splits. It seems to me a lot of people have focused on his career year, which he did have. But his career numbers suggest he is far more than a one year, contract year wonder.

[southsider2k5]

You keep asserting this, can you give something other than anecdotal names to say it?

 

Because of the steroid era, there is pretty much no reliable data here.

[LittleHurt05]

Because of the steroid era, there is pretty much no reliable data here.

 

And the recent banning of amphetamines, I'm sure those helped plenty of older guys keep the needed energy going during a long season.

[Balta1701]

Pretty much everyone would like to be paid like that. If he does, good for him. The reality is he will have to find someone to pay him like that. .306/.373/.475 . Those are his career splits. It seems to me a lot of people have focused on his career year, which he did have. But his career numbers suggest he is far more than a one year, contract year wonder.

But with his weak baserunning, poor defense when put in, and limitations to the DH spot, he's a 2 fWAR player if he puts up those numbers for a full season in Detroit's ballpark. He put up pretty close to those numbers in 2011 and was a 2.5 WAR player while being better in baserunning and defense than he is right now.

 

You've made a good case that he's a positive player and a good risk at $10 million a year, and would be very much overpaid at $15 million per year if he puts up his career numbers.

 

To support the contract that you're willing to give him (not even the one beyond that he's got a good chance of getting) he has to hit well above his career average during his age 36-38 seasons.

[southsider2k5]

And the recent banning of amphetamines, I'm sure those helped plenty of older guys keep the needed energy going during a long season.

 

Also a very good point here. You are literally reduced to educated guessing when it comes to situations like this.

[Dick Allen]

But with his weak baserunning, poor defense when put in, and limitations to the DH spot, he's a 2 fWAR player if he puts up those numbers for a full season in Detroit's ballpark. He put up pretty close to those numbers in 2011 and was a 2.5 WAR player while being better in baserunning and defense than he is right now.

 

You've made a good case that he's a positive player and a good risk at $10 million a year, and would be very much overpaid at $15 million per year if he puts up his career numbers.

 

To support the contract that you're willing to give him (not even the one beyond that he's got a good chance of getting) he has to hit well above his career average during his age 36-38 seasons.

If we have to use Fangraphs to determine his worth, on their page a 139 wRC+ is projected for 2015. There is one year well worth it.

 

I am really not all that concerned with how his defense hurts his WAR. I think the way defense is factored into WAR it really WARps the actual value. I think if the Sox paid him $15 million a year and he hit .306/.373/.465, there would be zero complaints that he was overpaid.

[Balta1701]

If we have to use Fangraphs to determine his worth, on their page a 139 wRC+ is projected for 2015. There is one year well worth it.

 

I am really not all that concerned with how his defense hurts his WAR. I think the way defense is factored into WAR it really WARps the actual value. I think if the Sox paid him $15 million a year and he hit .306/.373/.465, there would be zero complaints that he was overpaid.

So again, you're predicting that he will perform during his age 36 season at a level significantly above his career average. The computer does that because he was so far out of line this year and its projecting decline based on his performance this year, not based on his career average.

 

That projection would equate to him having the 2nd best season of his career next year and that would be far, far beyond the numbers you just wrote.

 

I think that's a fundamental mistake.

[Chicago White Sox]

But with his weak baserunning, poor defense when put in, and limitations to the DH spot, he's a 2 fWAR player if he puts up those numbers for a full season in Detroit's ballpark. He put up pretty close to those numbers in 2011 and was a 2.5 WAR player while being better in baserunning and defense than he is right now.

 

You've made a good case that he's a positive player and a good risk at $10 million a year, and would be very much overpaid at $15 million per year if he puts up his career numbers.

 

To support the contract that you're willing to give him (not even the one beyond that he's got a good chance of getting) he has to hit well above his career average during his age 36-38 seasons.

So you think if we add Victor Martinez and he puts up a wRC+ of 130 we'll only be 2.5 games better next year?

[Dick Allen]

So again, you're predicting that he will perform during his age 36 season at a level significantly above his career average. The computer does that because he was so far out of line this year and its projecting decline based on his performance this year, not based on his career average.

 

That projection would equate to him having the 2nd best season of his career next year and that would be far, far beyond the numbers you just wrote.

 

I think that's a fundamental mistake.

As I stated but you just ignored, if he put up his career average, we all would be happy. Just pointed out, since fangraphs WAR was so important to you, that their page is projecting a pretty nice season next year. So if you are going to use Fangraphs, you really shouldn't pick and choose which numbers to use. For his career his wRC+ is 125.

[Balta1701]

So you think if we add Victor Martinez and he puts up a wRC+ of 130 we'll only be 2.5 games better next year?

If that's all we add? Yeah. We got a 110 ish RC+ out of our main DH last year. That's going to win some games, but not a ton.

[BlackSox13]

It just seems that you flipflopped your position from the Your Offseason plan thread where you thought the Sox could contend in 2015. You keep saying VMart alone doesnt make the Sox a contender but who the heck is saying just sign VMart and no one else ?

 

So VMart, a proven high quality ML hitter would be worth less than some unproven 19 yr old who if you sign for a certain amount you'd just double the salary in penalties ? Don't like wasting money on an old proven hitter then you should hate wasting $30-40M on penalties .

 

Soxfan wanted Rasmus with Martinez in the lineup that was his scenario. Maybe without Martinez in the lineup he doesn't want Rasmus on a 1 yr deal or at all since if Rasmus proves his worth he'd certainly want the big bucks to follow . He'd be insane not to. However I'm 99.999 % sure he won't be signing a 1 yr deal with anyone considering its a huge risk given that if he sucks again he will be worth even less.

 

And I'm still waiting on who you think is good quality. Maybe we can sign them all for 1 yr and Hahn can start from scratch for 2016 again.

I did flip flop. After considering JR is not known to be a big spender on multiple FA's, the Sox farm is thin on talent despite its improvement, its difficult to see how the Sox will contend.

 

IMO, its going to take this off season, the 2016 trade deadline and next off season to build a contender. Just too many holes. The Sox are not the Yanks, BoSox or Dodgers that go out and buy multiple FA's to fill in holes. If this were the case, JR could turn this into a contender by signing VMart or LaRoche to DH, Ramirez or Headley to play 3B , Rasmus or Melky to play LF, BMac to be a starter (if he could stay healthy) as well as sign a few bullpen arms. But that's not JR and in fact I'd be shocked if the Sox signed any two of those guys.

 

I'm just hoping the Sox gain another 10 games in the win column in 2015 and anything more than that is a bonus. Just keep improving.

 

As for Moncada, if I have to explain to you that he's an investment in the LONG term future then the discussion is already over because there's a huge difference between the reasons you sign players like VMart and Moncada.

Edited November 3, 2014 by StRoostifer