Victor Martinez Re-signs with Tigers

[southsider2k5]

Dumb question, I admit:

 

When people are talking about signing jose fernandez, who are they referring to?

 

A supposed Cuban exile, though no one is positive he has left the island.

[bmags]

A supposed Cuban exile, though no one is positive he has left the island.

 

Thanks, I must have missed the fandom there. I was thinking the Miami pitcher, and was like, there is no way that guy has been in league 6 years.

[Kyyle23]

Thanks, I must have missed the fandom there. I was thinking the Miami pitcher, and was like, there is no way that guy has been in league 6 years.

 

And, he probably isnt gonna be doing a lot of pitching next season. At least not until after the AS break

[LDF]

I just want to clarify my vote in this poll.

 

The question is "Do you want Victor Martinez?" My answer to that question is yes, assuming that we are defining "want" as "want Victor Martinez to play on the Chicago White Sox" and not "want Victor Martinez to send me a naked selfie." I absolutely want the former, I absolutely do not want the latter due to the bodily effects gravity plays on people.

 

However, it's all cost dependent. I think Chicago White Sox mentioned 3/$48 as his limit; I agree with that. Really, anything much more than that on either end is getting too long and too expensive. This is a who has, for all intents and purposes, zero defensive value and he is getting older. Those types of players historically do not return a ton of value and are typically overpaid based on previous performances.

 

ahem..... ahhh do you want to tell us something ????

[LDF]

A supposed Cuban exile, though no one is positive he has left the island.

 

it is reported he left, the problem is where is he????

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Thats great, but I think acquisitions will be made with on eye on continuing to build forward. Signing Jose Fernandez to an Abreu like deal, trading for CarGo, adding a viable mid-rotation starting pitcher and adding some pieces to the bullpen will all increase payroll and keep the Sox investing for the future. VMart is just going to be too old and too expensive at the end of whatever deal he gets to make me think it will be a good move for the Sox.

A 3 year conract is building forward for 3 years. In 3 years time half the roster won't be the same most likely.If we're lucky Bassitt, Rodon , Danish and Montas will all be established pitchers wreakng havoc in either the pen or rotation. Anything the Sox do now is a bridge or road to becoming that team with the killer rotation.

[Dick Allen]

A 3 year conract is building forward for 3 years. In 3 years time half the roster won't be the same most likely.If we're lucky Bassitt, Rodon , Danish and Montas will all be established pitchers wreakng havoc in either the pen or rotation. Anything the Sox do now is a bridge or road to becoming that team with the killer rotation.

That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct.

 

To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year.

 

The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time.

[Eminor3rd]

I just want to clarify my vote in this poll.

 

The question is "Do you want Victor Martinez?" My answer to that question is yes, assuming that we are defining "want" as "want Victor Martinez to play on the Chicago White Sox" and not "want Victor Martinez to send me a naked selfie." I absolutely want the former, I absolutely do not want the latter due to the bodily effects gravity plays on people.

 

However, it's all cost dependent. I think Chicago White Sox mentioned 3/$48 as his limit; I agree with that. Really, anything much more than that on either end is getting too long and too expensive. This is a who has, for all intents and purposes, zero defensive value and he is getting older. Those types of players historically do not return a ton of value and are typically overpaid based on previous performances.

 

I just can't see any situation where 3/$48 gets it done. The Mariners will beat that. The Royals should at least match it. Orioles would match it assuming Cruz doesn't accept the QO. Astros are under pressure to raise the payroll. Only takes one.

[harfman77]

A 3 year conract is building forward for 3 years. In 3 years time half the roster won't be the same most likely.If we're lucky Bassitt, Rodon , Danish and Montas will all be established pitchers wreakng havoc in either the pen or rotation. Anything the Sox do now is a bridge or road to becoming that team with the killer rotation.

 

In three years Martinez will be 39. His current level of production is unlikely to be maintained over the course of whatever contract he signs given his advanced age. He also has said he wants a four year deal. This is all moot anyway, the Tigers will pay whatever to keep him.

[harfman77]

That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct.

 

To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year.

 

The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time.

 

I dont think a 36 year old is a long term solution. If he declines rapidly as others his age are prone to do, you now have a huge financial commitment and need to fill the hole all over again while not having the financial flexibility to address your other areas of concern. I like the idea of filling roster deficiencies, VMart does not seem to be the most efficient way to do so unless you are all in next season.

[witesoxfan]

I just can't see any situation where 3/$48 gets it done. The Mariners will beat that. The Royals should at least match it. Orioles would match it assuming Cruz doesn't accept the QO. Astros are under pressure to raise the payroll. Only takes one.

 

I agree. It's basically just a very generalized way of stating that I'd have absolutely no problem taking Victor Martinez at the right price, but that I doubt the right price is actually achievable.

[Eminor3rd]

That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct.

 

To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year.

 

The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time.

 

It's not about that though, it's about whether or not this guy is going to fill the hole for more than a year before he becomes an albatross. If he was even 30 years old, I'd be into it. It just seems if we're going to do it, let's NOT the choose the one that's 36, injury prone, has nowhere to go down the defensive spectrum, and is coming off a flukey good year that's going to guarantee he's overpriced.

 

2/24? 3/36? Even 3/45? Sure. But let's be realistic here: that's NOT going to get it done. There are other teams in even better positions to take advantage of his immediate talent, and ONE of them is going to be willing to give him that fourth year. Now we're talking 4/60, maybe 4/65 to get it done. And you're a bum knee or millisecond of batspeed away from having John Danks the DH.

 

I'm not against improving the team using free agent money, I'm just against making the highest possible risks for the shortest term gains, and I think that's what Victor represents for us.

[Balta1701]

That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct.

 

To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year.

 

The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time.

I cannot and will not believe that there will be an offseason any time in the near future where there are 0 legitimate DH options for a team.

[Eminor3rd]

I agree. It's basically just a very generalized way of stating that I'd have absolutely no problem taking Victor Martinez at the right price, but that I doubt the right price is actually achievable.

 

But I think that's the crux of the argument, though. Literally all of us want him on the team at a low price, but do you want him at market price? The board is split almost exactly 50/50 on the idea that he should be, essentially, the biggest part of our offseason, because the price he is going to command would definitely be the biggest expenditure for us, to the point of affecting or sometimes preventing other expenditures.

 

That's a fascinating split, to me.

[witesoxfan]

But I think that's the crux of the argument, though. Literally all of us want him on the team at a low price, but do you want him at market price? The board is split almost exactly 50/50 on the idea that he should be, essentially, the biggest part of our offseason, because the price he is going to command would definitely be the biggest expenditure for us, to the point of affecting or sometimes preventing other expenditures.

 

That's a fascinating split, to me.

 

Primarily because nobody is coming to mind, but who was the last pure DH to hit the free agent market? The only guy coming to mind right now is Dunn. I'm just curious to compare contracts between those types of players.

 

I think that's the hardest part for me is trying to evaluate Martinez's value. He is a great hitter and he would likely be a productive hitter (at least a 100 wRC+ type hitter) over the life of a 4 year contract, but a perfectly average hitter who does nothing else is not worth $10 mill, let alone the hypothesized $20 million a year Martinez may get. He also brings literally nothing else to the table other than emergency catching and some 1B. Will teams overpay for the bat or value him appropriately given his age and limited defensive abilities? My gut leans towards the former but it's hard for me to say at this point.

 

I do think he will get a 4th year or, at the very least, a vesting option with easily attainable milestones with a large buyout.

[Dick Allen]

I cannot and will not believe that there will be an offseason any time in the near future where there are 0 legitimate DH options for a team.

How about with with a career 125 wRC+ who bats lefthanded (actually both) can be plugged into the middle of the line up, and rarely swings and misses.

[Eminor3rd]

Primarily because nobody is coming to mind, but who was the last pure DH to hit the free agent market? The only guy coming to mind right now is Dunn. I'm just curious to compare contracts between those types of players.

 

I think that's the hardest part for me is trying to evaluate Martinez's value. He is a great hitter and he would likely be a productive hitter (at least a 100 wRC+ type hitter) over the life of a 4 year contract, but a perfectly average hitter who does nothing else is not worth $10 mill, let alone the hypothesized $20 million a year Martinez may get. He also brings literally nothing else to the table other than emergency catching and some 1B. Will teams overpay for the bat or value him appropriately given his age and limited defensive abilities? My gut leans towards the former but it's hard for me to say at this point.

 

I do think he will get a 4th year or, at the very least, a vesting option with easily attainable milestones with a large buyout.

 

Kendrys Morales is probably the only other comparable. Will the QO hurt Victor similarly? My gut is no because he's always been better, but who knows?

[2nd_city_saint787]

But I think that's the crux of the argument, though. Literally all of us want him on the team at a low price, but do you want him at market price? The board is split almost exactly 50/50 on the idea that he should be, essentially, the biggest part of our offseason, because the price he is going to command would definitely be the biggest expenditure for us, to the point of affecting or sometimes preventing other expenditures.

 

That's a fascinating split, to me.

 

 

My thing with this whole argument is even at 20M a year the payroll only goes up to ~71.....If you believe Rock when he said that the payroll will be over 100M when the Sox are ready to compete that still leaves a good deal of cash to address other needs.

[southsider2k5]

I just can't see any situation where 3/$48 gets it done. The Mariners will beat that. The Royals should at least match it. Orioles would match it assuming Cruz doesn't accept the QO. Astros are under pressure to raise the payroll. Only takes one.

 

I wouldn't be upset if the Sox got him for 3/48. It won't be a pretty deal at the end, but that isn't bad for the next year, and probably two. It is when we start talking about 4 years that I get really against it.

[Eminor3rd]

How about with with a career 125 wRC+ who bats lefthanded (actually both) can be plugged into the middle of the line up, and rarely swings and misses.

 

He's not quite as good, but we might be able to get a left-handed 115 wRC+ DH for the 2/24 or 2/30 we want and without draft pick compensation if we're willing to let him strike out a bit and we're okay with him having two capital letters in his name.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=1B

[Eminor3rd]

My thing with this whole argument is even at 20M a year the payroll only goes up to ~71.....If you believe Rock when he said that the payroll will be over 100M when the Sox are ready to compete that still leaves a good deal of cash to address other needs.

 

I didn't say it was crippling on its own, but it's a substantial chunk of limited resources and so it will prevent us from using those resources for different things, that's all.

[witesoxfan]

My thing with this whole argument is even at 20M a year the payroll only goes up to ~71.....If you believe Rock when he said that the payroll will be over 100M when the Sox are ready to compete that still leaves a good deal of cash to address other needs.

 

You have to start paying your players eventually. Gillaspie and Eaton will be arb eligible in 2016, Sale and Quintana's salary goes up, and there will be others who are also reaching arbitration at that time, never mind any other signings they make.

 

$20 mill a year is really not a good investment to make on a DH.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct.

 

To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year.

 

The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time.

What I get from this thread is that everyone voting no is looking for the " perfect fit" to spend the big money on like Abreu was. That and the possibility of money tied up on an injured or rapidly declining player. We got lucky with Abreu and unlucky with Dunn and Danks. These 3 things combined have Sox fans very wary of long term committments.

 

I think established/veteran talent has to be added always because other players careers also go into that negative trajectory mode. What if Abreu becomes the player he was in the 2nd half ? What if Avi becomes what Eminor always thought he was ? What if Sale blows out his arm ? For planned steps forward there always seems to be unplanned steps backward.

 

There are always going to be contracts we aren't happy about. There's just no getting around that in todays game. At least when you add talent and things go awry in other areas to screw up your season that talent is tradeable. If you keep dumpster diving a guy like Noesi , for instance, isn't worth as much in trade as that established vet because of the fear he will go back to being trash.

Edited November 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[2nd_city_saint787]

You have to start paying your players eventually. Gillaspie and Eaton will be arb eligible in 2016, Sale and Quintana's salary goes up, and there will be others who are also reaching arbitration at that time, never mind any other signings they make.

 

$20 mill a year is really not a good investment to make on a DH.

 

I'm using 20M as the high end. I'm hoping it doesn't get that high but even so I think it's feasible with how low the payroll is. Arbitration isn't gonna cost that much for those guys and the following year (If it isn't already off the books) Danks 15M comes off the books.

 

This is all coming from a guy who thinks we're closer than a lot of people on here though. I can also see the payroll pushing back up well over 100M in a year or 2.

 

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

What I get from this thread is that everyone voting no is looking for the " perfect fit" to spend the big money on like Abreu was. That and the possibility of money tied up on an injured or rapidly declining player. We got lucky with Abreu and unlucky with Dunn and Danks. These 3 things combined have Sox fans very wary of long term committments.

 

I think established/veteran talent has to be added always because other players careers also go into that negative trajectory mode. What if Abreu becomes the player he was in the 2nd half ? What if Avi becomes what Eminor always thought he was ? What if Sale blows out his arm ? For planned steps forward there always seems to be unplanned steps backward.

 

There are always going to be contracts we aren't happy about. There's just no getting around that in todays game. At least when you add talent and things go awry in other areas to screw up your season that talent is tradeable. If you keep dumpster diving a guy like Noesi , for instance, isn't worth as much in trade as that established vet because of the fear he will go back to being trash.

 

What you're saying makes a ton of sense, and I think it's at the center of the logical portion of Dick Allen's argument, too. There is ALWAYS risk with EVERYONE, and to avoid all risk is to not really play.

 

That said, you can accept risk without completely ignoring it. What I'm trying to say is that V Mart is MORE risky than the average (age, injury, outlier season, inflated price, etc.) free agent. He may the MOST risky, in fact. I just think that, in our position, we should not take the RISKIEST step available to us. Remember, I'm all for going for Russell Martin, who is 31 and a catcher and also coming of a fluke season, and many have pointed out the risks in that correctly. But there are a lot of reason to think that's still a safer move than Martinez and will pay dividends for longer. Martinez is just the shortest, riskiest guy.

 

In the light of this World Series, what with two hot WC teams making it all the way to the end despite just barely sneaking into the tournament in the first place, one of the hot topics in saber circles now is the mental re-imagining of what the "win curve" really looks like. If 87 wins gets you a shot at a title, you can make an argument that you're contender even if you're a true talent .500 (82 win) team. All it takes is a couple lucky breaks and a handful of extra innings victories. Hell, you can make an argument that you're a fringe contender if you're a BELOW .500 team. What this means is that there is value in sustaining a decent level of performance, without the peaks and valleys, where there was none before. Now, a 94 win juggernaut only has a marginally better shot at the championship, but costs drastically more in terms of time and money to create. Feast or famine is going out of style.

 

For this reason, if we're going to take risks, it would behoove us to take those that have at least a reasonable shot at offering sustained return. I don't think you can look ahead more than 4 years with any shred of accuracy, but you can make a reasonable guess at how things will likely work out for the next few years at least. To me, V Mart is a bold, one year move that might work for two that almost certainly is a problem after three and four. It's a feast or famine move in an era where the middle road is looking like the most prudent path.

Edited November 4, 2014 by Eminor3rd