Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 (edited) Matt Swartz's highly celebrated arbitration projector was released on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/proj...s-for-2015.html Here's the Sox section: White Sox (service time) Ronald Belisario (4.151) – $3.9MM Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM This should be a pretty reliable frame of reference for discussion until the actual figures come in. Edited November 4, 2014 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) Matt Swartz's highly celebrated arbitration projector was released on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/proj...s-for-2015.html Here's the Sox section: White Sox (6) Ronald Belisario (4.151) – $3.9MM Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM This should be a pretty reliable frame of reference for discussion until the actual figures come in. I think they will be freeing up $8.3 mill of that. And, at the very least, it will be $3.9 mill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) Matt Swartz's highly celebrated arbitration projector was released on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/proj...s-for-2015.html Here's the Sox section: White Sox (6) Ronald Belisario (4.151) – $3.9MM Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM This should be a pretty reliable frame of reference for discussion until the actual figures come in. That comes pretty close to my guestimates for the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Flowers, Noesi, Jones are obvious tenders. Guerra, slightly below that. Viciedo and Belisario, GTFO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 03:23 PM) I think they will be freeing up $8.3 mill of that. And, at the very least, it will be $3.9 mill. Agreed, so couple that with the 45.9 already signed up and we're looking at 51.8 in commitments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:26 PM) That comes pretty close to my guestimates for the Sox. Nice work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Trade Tank for the best young reliever you can get and laugh at Belesario and $3.9M as he packs his bags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) Matt Swartz's highly celebrated arbitration projector was released on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/proj...s-for-2015.html Here's the Sox section: White Sox (6) Ronald Belisario (4.151) – $3.9MM Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM This should be a pretty reliable frame of reference for discussion until the actual figures come in. Definitely would keep Flowers, Noesi, Jones and Guerra for those prices. Viciedo is a toss up. Hope you can trade him, but possibly keep him Belisario is done. QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) Agreed, so couple that with the 45.9 already signed up and we're looking at 51.8 in commitments. If these numbers hold true with the arbitration players guestimates. 51.8 million in commitments has a lot of room to spend this off season and next. I can't wait until Danks contract comes off the books now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Good grief. If Noesi continues doing what he's doing or continues to improve, what a bargain! I'd wave goodbye to Belly and get whatever I can from Tank and move on. Lots of payroll flexibility, wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Lose the Belly. keep everyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 As anti-Viciedo as I am, I'd tender him a contract. You try to trade him, but if that fails, you find him a platoon partner. If that fails, you give him another year or replace him and eat the $4m. This is a season where we can afford to carry that $4m in dead weight in the worst case scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:07 PM) As anti-Viciedo as I am, I'd tender him a contract. You try to trade him, but if that fails, you find him a platoon partner. If that fails, you give him another year or replace him and eat the $4m. This is a season where we can afford to carry that $4m in dead weight in the worst case scenario. I wouldn't. I'm done with him, and I'm convinced that he'll be the starting LF if he's tendered a contract because that means no one wanted him before that deadline. He's not going to have higher value in January than now, he's a terrible, terrible, terrible option as a backup OF because of defense and baserunning, and we've already seen Rick get stuck with guys people talked about him trying to trade because he offered them arbitration and no one wanted them until the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 04:08 PM) I wouldn't. I'm done with him, and I'm convinced that he'll be the starting LF if he's tendered a contract because that means no one wanted him before that deadline. He's not going to have higher value in January than now, he's a terrible, terrible, terrible option as a backup OF because of defense and baserunning, and we've already seen Rick get stuck with guys people talked about him trying to trade because he offered them arbitration and no one wanted them until the end of the year. This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Belly is obviously gone. Flowers, Guerra, Noesi and Jones obviously stay. Not sure about Tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) I wouldn't. I'm done with him, and I'm convinced that he'll be the starting LF if he's tendered a contract because that means no one wanted him before that deadline. He's not going to have higher value in January than now, he's a terrible, terrible, terrible option as a backup OF because of defense and baserunning, and we've already seen Rick get stuck with guys people talked about him trying to trade because he offered them arbitration and no one wanted them until the end of the year. The bolded is a great point. Still, $4m isn't much for an insurance policy. Because if he couldn't find anyone better over the offseason, we might as well give him another shot in the dark until someone else emerges. However, I'm saying that assuming that I'd be totally comfortable DFA'ing him at any time and eating that money. If his contract guarantees his roster spot, then I'd dump him for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:15 PM) The bolded is a great point. Still, $4m isn't much for an insurance policy. Because if he couldn't find anyone better over the offseason, we might as well give him another shot in the dark until someone else emerges. However, I'm saying that assuming that I'd be totally comfortable DFA'ing him at any time and eating that money. If his contract guarantees his roster spot, then I'd dump him for sure. I can't think of him as an insurance policy because I can't think of him being useful in a backup role. An insurance policy is what you use when something goes wrong, so what do we do if things go right and we find a better starting OF somewhere? Like I said we can't keep him on the bench because he's such a poor fit for that role, he's shown no success with the bat to justify thinking of him as a DH option, basically he's an insurance policy against us failing to find a replacement for him. But Hell, play that guy we just picked up on the waiver wire, he literally cannot be worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:21 PM) I can't think of him as an insurance policy because I can't think of him being useful in a backup role. An insurance policy is what you use when something goes wrong, so what do we do if things go right and we find a better starting OF somewhere? Like I said we can't keep him on the bench because he's such a poor fit for that role, he's shown no success with the bat to justify thinking of him as a DH option, basically he's an insurance policy against us failing to find a replacement for him. But Hell, play that guy we just picked up on the waiver wire, he literally cannot be worse. Yeah, he's a bad reserve. If you find a better OF, you DFA him. The bolded is exactly what I mean by "insurance policy." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:38 PM) Yeah, he's a bad reserve. If you find a better OF, you DFA him. The bolded is exactly what I mean by "insurance policy." But $4.5 million goes a decent part of the way towards finding a better OF. That's a lot of money to waste on an insurance policy against coming up empty in the free agent market when $4.5 million extra to spend is insurance against coming up empty anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 05:42 PM) But $4.5 million goes a decent part of the way towards finding a better OF. That's a lot of money to waste on an insurance policy against coming up empty in the free agent market when $4.5 million extra to spend is insurance against coming up empty anyway! I just think we can stomach it for this year while the payroll is really low. In years where we're maxing it out, I don't think you'd even consider it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 04:21 PM) I can't think of him as an insurance policy because I can't think of him being useful in a backup role. An insurance policy is what you use when something goes wrong, so what do we do if things go right and we find a better starting OF somewhere? Like I said we can't keep him on the bench because he's such a poor fit for that role, he's shown no success with the bat to justify thinking of him as a DH option, basically he's an insurance policy against us failing to find a replacement for him. But Hell, play that guy we just picked up on the waiver wire, he literally cannot be worse. You'd rather have JB Shuck as a DH option than Viciedo? Unless we fill BOTH LF and DH this offseason, Dayan's likely to be given one more year...let's call it the "DeAza/Beckham Effect." In Dick Allen's scenario where we're spending $40-50 million this offseason on FA's, I'd agree that he should be jettisoned. It's just that very few see that (amount of spending) coming, realistically. Edited November 4, 2014 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not that he necessarily needs seasoning in the minors, but Viciedo may have an option left. It's always hard to tell, but even if he didn't, they could attempt to assign him to the minors. If he passes through, then great; if not, the Sox get exactly what they wanted anyways. That would be far, far less than ideal but it's an option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Belisario is worth nowhere near $4 mill. Guerra is definitely a keeper. I assume Lindstrom has been let go. He's been bad in Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Non tendering Viciedo is crazy talk, not going to happen. Why? He's 25 years old right now and has hit 20+ HR's in 3 straight seasons. Now I'm not saying he should be given another year for us, but I refuse to believe that there isn't a team that would be willing to trade for him. I'm not even saying for a lot, but a young arm for the bullpen shouldn't be that hard to obtain in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:47 PM) Non tendering Viciedo is crazy talk, not going to happen. Why? He's 25 years old right now and has hit 20+ HR's in 3 straight seasons. Now I'm not saying he should be given another year for us, but I refuse to believe that there isn't a team that would be willing to trade for him. I'm not even saying for a lot, but a young arm for the bullpen shouldn't be that hard to obtain in my opinion. I am not a fan of DV nor have I since the his first yr. but non tendering him would be a waste. he is still valuable and b/c of you reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 (edited) Viciedo will be traded before the Winter Meetings, and maybe before December 2. I find it very unlikely he's with the Sox next year. Edited November 4, 2014 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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