Carlos Gonzalez

[Eminor3rd]

There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved.

 

Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value.

 

All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary.

 

Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit.

 

Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here.

 

So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO.

[witesoxfan]

There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved.

 

Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value.

 

All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary.

 

Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit.

 

Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here.

 

So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO.

 

This is exactly how I feel.

[LittleHurt05]

There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved.

 

Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value.

 

All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary.

 

Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit.

 

Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here.

 

So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO.

 

This is why we keep you around here.

[Kyyle23]

This is why we keep you around here.

 

that, and the chocolate chip cookies he keeps sending Gage

[Dick Allen]

There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved.

 

Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value.

 

All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary.

 

Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit.

 

Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here.

 

So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO.

The problem is, there is no way the Rockies eat salary and trade CarGo for some B level at best prospects. Salary dumping CarGo probably costs the Rockies more money in the long run than just paying him to play or sit on the DL for them.

[bigruss]

Eminor, you've become one of the best posters on this site. Great post.

[Eminor3rd]

The problem is, there is no way the Rockies eat salary and trade CarGo for some B level at best prospects. Salary dumping CarGo probably costs the Rockies more money in the long run than just paying him to play or sit on the DL for them.

 

Yeah, that offer might be a little light with the salary attached. Might be more realistic to say that offer could float if we ate all the money.

[Bob Sacamano]

Trade Beck and Trayce Thompson. Take on all salary. Make him primary DH/4th outfielder. Sign a left/right fielder capable of playing center for when Eaton gets hurt.

 

Eaton CF

Ramirez SS

Abreu 1B

CarGo DH

Garcia LF/RF

Rasmus? RF/LF

Gillaspie 3B

Flowers C

Second baseman

 

[Eminor3rd]

This is why we keep you around here.

 

Eminor, you've become one of the best posters on this site. Great post.

 

[Dick Allen]

Trade Beck and Trayce Thompson. Take on all salary. Make him primary DH/4th outfielder. Sign a left/right fielder capable of playing center for when Eaton gets hurt.

 

Eaton CF

Ramirez SS

Abreu 1B

CarGo DH

Garcia LF/RF

Rasmus? RF/LF

Gillaspie 3B

Flowers C

Second baseman

I would imagine Hahn would do that right now. The Rockies wouldn't. If he has another injury-filled year and puts up bad numbers, IMO, then it is possible to sell it to their fanbase that dumping him for some salary relief makes a lot of sense.

 

It's one thing if you are trading him for some really projectable prospects. It's a baseball move. Trading him for Beck and Thompson is just a financial move. Dumping one of your most popular players to save money will cost you some money.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

If Gonzalez wasn't expensive and always hurt, the Rockies wouldn't be looking to trade him.

[harfman77]

Trade Beck and Trayce Thompson. Take on all salary. Make him primary DH/4th outfielder. Sign a left/right fielder capable of playing center for when Eaton gets hurt.

 

Eaton CF

Ramirez SS

Abreu 1B

CarGo DH

Garcia LF/RF

Rasmus? RF/LF

Gillaspie 3B

Flowers C

Second baseman

 

You lose quite a bit of his value by taking him out of the field though. I think he can DH part time, but he would be the best OF defender the Sox have by quite a bit. Move him over to RF and let Garcia learn on the job in LF and you can rotate Viciedo into the DH/LF roles.

[iamshack]

If Gonzalez wasn't expensive and always hurt, the Rockies wouldn't be looking to trade him.

Let's not focus ONLY on the injury history though. While he and Tulo have both been consistently injured, they've also put up mvp-type seasons.

 

The Rockies are not going to dump either of them for B-level prospects. Cargo's salary, especially, is really not that crippling, even if you build in some inevitable injury time.

 

Cargo has basically been a 16 war player (cumulatively) over the past 5 seasons. That averages to about 3.2 war a season, which pencils out to something in the $16-22 million range annually. That timeframe includes 2014 which was essentially a lost year for him, as well as 2012 when he missed a lot of time.

 

Considering that he's 28, and most likely has another 3-4 years of performance near his prime, it isn't unlikely that he will be worth the remaining money on his contract ($53 million).

 

Now factor in his marketing appeal, the fact that he is a unique superstar talent, yada yada, and that makes him a valuable asset.

 

Obviously, as Eminor said, if he has a chronic knee condition, that throws this analysis out the window, but absent that, the Rockies aren't going to move a player that is likely worth his value (with potential to exceed), as well as with other potential value attached, for B-level prospects. Cargo is a "face of the franchise" type player and you don't trade those for mediocre packages unless it comes with an absolutely albatross-type contract. These fantasies of trading them a bunch of s*** we scraped out of our couch cushions are nuts. It's going to take a package centered around a guy that, at the very least, has the potential to be star player.

 

I'd guess you're looking at the very least, something centered around Tim Anderson, with some other decent talent in there as well.

[Eminor3rd]

It's probably true to say that the Rockies are NOT looking for salary relief, and are willing to send money to get talent.

 

Let's say they cover half. What do you think it takes from us to get it done at half salary?

[iamshack]

It's probably true to say that the Rockies are NOT looking for salary relief, and are willing to send money to get talent.

 

Let's say they cover half. What do you think it takes from us to get it done at half salary?

But why would we cant them to cover half? We'd rather eat the money and keep our talent, don't you think?

[Eminor3rd]

But why would we cant them to cover half? We'd rather eat the money and keep our talent, don't you think?

 

Absolutely, but that doesn't mean THEY are willing to make that move.

 

Dick Allen pointed out that the trade can be framed as either change in direction or a salary dump. They're in a position where they don't NEED to frame it as a salary dump for the very fact that he is such a tantalizing bounceback candidate coming off of just one down year. So it may be safe to assume they say, "Hey, we're not looking to dump him, we need some talent back. But we understand the risk, so we're willing to cover a substantial chunk of his salary. Call us back if that makes sense to you."

[iamshack]

Absolutely, but that doesn't mean THEY are willing to make that move.

 

Dick Allen pointed out that the trade can be framed as either change in direction or a salary dump. They're in a position where they don't NEED to frame it as a salary dump for the very fact that he is such a tantalizing bounceback candidate coming off of just one down year. So it may be safe to assume they say, "Hey, we're not looking to dump him, we need some talent back. But we understand the risk, so we're willing to cover a substantial chunk of his salary. Call us back if that makes sense to you."

Fair enough. I mean assets are assets, whether it be cash or talent.

 

Ultimately, this will vary by suitor.

 

In our situation, I would think we would focus on taking cash over giving talent, not simply because of our payroll commitments but because of our relatively bare cupboards of talent. If their preference is on talent rather than shedding cash, I think we probably become less than an ideal suitor to them.

 

The most valuable asset I might consider actually moving is Quintana.

[PorkChopExpress]

Let's not focus ONLY on the injury history though. While he and Tulo have both been consistently injured, they've also put up mvp-type seasons.

 

The Rockies are not going to dump either of them for B-level prospects. Cargo's salary, especially, is really not that crippling, even if you build in some inevitable injury time.

 

Cargo has basically been a 16 war player (cumulatively) over the past 5 seasons. That averages to about 3.2 war a season, which pencils out to something in the $16-22 million range annually. That timeframe includes 2014 which was essentially a lost year for him, as well as 2012 when he missed a lot of time.

 

Considering that he's 28, and most likely has another 3-4 years of performance near his prime, it isn't unlikely that he will be worth the remaining money on his contract ($53 million).

 

Now factor in his marketing appeal, the fact that he is a unique superstar talent, yada yada, and that makes him a valuable asset.

 

Obviously, as Eminor said, if he has a chronic knee condition, that throws this analysis out the window, but absent that, the Rockies aren't going to move a player that is likely worth his value (with potential to exceed), as well as with other potential value attached, for B-level prospects. Cargo is a "face of the franchise" type player and you don't trade those for mediocre packages unless it comes with an absolutely albatross-type contract. These fantasies of trading them a bunch of s*** we scraped out of our couch cushions are nuts. It's going to take a package centered around a guy that, at the very least, has the potential to be star player.

 

I'd guess you're looking at the very least, something centered around Tim Anderson, with some other decent talent in there as well.

 

It seems like this what people always say, and then a team like Detroit moves in, and winds up with CarGo for something like Robbie Ray and a bunch of low level prospects, and we're left wondering why we couldn't put together a similar package to get him.

 

I think the White Sox have to at least make a call and see what it would take to get a deal done. They have the positional need, they have more good trade pieces in their system than they had a few years ago, and whether they want to take it on or not, they’re one of the few teams that can afford to take on the big contract right now. There is certainly risk because the Sox don’t have the players/bench to adapt and shift to overcome any injury problems. With CarGo that risk is a big one and makes taking on that money more unattractive than it would be if he played 150+ games every year (145 is his max), but the reward is equally as large as he is an MVP caliber player when he does play and is only 28 years old. Now I don't know how Colorado actually values him because I don't work in the Rockies front office, but the Rockies are a wild card, with a new GM trying to undo some of the problems caused by a stubborn owner, and maybe there’s a chance they’d be interested in some of the Sox players/prospects. Like I said, the Sox have to at least make the call. If they want two of our top 5 prospects plus Viciedo or something, then maybe it's too much and we move on, but if the Tigers pick him up for the likes of Robbie Ray and three throw-ins, we're going to be pissed.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Fair enough. I mean assets are assets, whether it be cash or talent.

 

Ultimately, this will vary by suitor.

 

In our situation, I would think we would focus on taking cash over giving talent, not simply because of our payroll commitments but because of our relatively bare cupboards of talent. If their preference is on talent rather than shedding cash, I think we probably become less than an ideal suitor to them.

 

The most valuable asset I might consider actually moving is Quintana.

 

Don't get me wrong -- I'm with you on the talent/money thing. If we can eat the whole contract and give up nothing but spare parts, I'd prefer it.

 

I wouldn't move Quintana, though. I value him higher than any of our prospects individually, save Rodon.

[iamshack]

Don't get me wrong -- I'm with you on the talent/money thing. If we can eat the whole contract and give up nothing but spare parts, I'd prefer it.

 

I wouldn't move Quintana, though. I value him higher than any of our prospects individually, save Rodon.

Yeah, that was probably a stupid thought.

[southsider2k5]

Fair enough. I mean assets are assets, whether it be cash or talent.

 

Ultimately, this will vary by suitor.

 

In our situation, I would think we would focus on taking cash over giving talent, not simply because of our payroll commitments but because of our relatively bare cupboards of talent. If their preference is on talent rather than shedding cash, I think we probably become less than an ideal suitor to them.

 

The most valuable asset I might consider actually moving is Quintana.

 

Unless someone offer a Mark Texeiria type return, I wouldn't bother listening.

[joejoedairy]

Hawkins Beck and Sanchez

[GreenSox]

Too much. Hawkins is hardly a spare part. Neither is Sanchez

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Too much. Hawkins is hardly a spare part. Neither is Sanchez

 

Ha, both are literally the baseball definition of a spare part. Sanchez is (at this point) a decent utility infielder that has maybe a 1/3 shot to turn into an average MLB middle infielder either at SS or 2B. Hawkins is a B- prospect that hasn't yet played above A ball.

 

You trade those guys 10/10 for an established MLB player like Gonzo. Not saying Gonzo would even be a particularly good target (don't know enough about his injury history or his splits outside Coors) but those guys are by every definition "spare parts" that would be used in a trade like this.

[caulfield12]

Ha, both are literally the baseball definition of a spare part. Sanchez is (at this point) a decent utility infielder that has maybe a 1/3 shot to turn into an average MLB middle infielder either at SS or 2B. Hawkins is a B- prospect that hasn't yet played above A ball.

 

You trade those guys 10/10 for an established MLB player like Gonzo. Not saying Gonzo would even be a particularly good target (don't know enough about his injury history or his splits outside Coors) but those guys are by every definition "spare parts" that would be used in a trade like this.

 

 

To already define Hawkins as a "spare" part after he was pushed so much in 2013...beyond where most experts believe a high school player with limited baseball experience should have been, it's a risk that we finally do have a "toolsy" player break through.

 

With the noted failures of Mitchell, Thompson, K.Walker, it seems logical to just lump Hawkins into that group, believe the White Sox won't develop him and trade him away. Sanchez, sure. But Hawkins has the most power potential of any prospect in our system when power's becoming a more and more valuable factor in the game.

 

Let's look at it this way. If Carlos Gonzalez was a free agent today, would we be happy if the White Sox signed him to a contract that's the exact same one as we would be taking on if we traded for him?

 

You've got the injury concerns, the fact he's had two "subpar" seasons in the last three years (no matter how you aggregate the numbers over 5 years to mask 2 of the last 3, where his "average" WAR over 2 of those 3 has been in the 0.5-1.0 range), the home/away splits, the transition from the NL to the AL thing to deal with, it's too much, in combination.

 

If your medical team is convinced he's 100% healthy, sure, you have to consider it. The Rockies' doctors/medical team has even more information, so why would THEY want to trade him when you have a potential superstar (return to that status) whose trade market value has been dinged at least 50%? If CarGo was on the White Sox, we'd all be saying let him play this year and rebuild value...don't sell low on a player with that type of ability. If he doesn't show the health (we have another version of this problem in Danks), then you are pretty much stuck with him unless you're willing to eat a significant amount of salary.

 

The problem is that he's an iconic player there (unlike Danks in Chicago), so you can't just "dump" CarGo and trade Tulowitzki without getting major pieces in return. Just don't see it happening.

 

Finally, I haven't even looked them up, but haven't his defensive metrics also eroded over the last 2-3 seasons? To say that he's STILL a better outfielder than Eaton at this stage is pushing it a bit.

Edited November 6, 2014 by caulfield12