Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[iamshack]

I am sorry but this post is just an insane overvaluation of Marcus Semien, who I happen to like. If we could get Semiene for a yr of Shark, I would do it every day and twice on Sunday because at the deadline, there is a high likelihood if we were out of contention I could sell him for far better talent than Marcus Semien. Plus, I fully expect the Sox to make a significant run at resigning Shark if we were to trade for him. Trading Tim Anderson with no intention of signing Shark to an extension, would be something I would have an issue with. Anderson has a chance to be a special player, Semien does not. You also can't view this in a vacuum, if you trade Semien for Shark, why do you just assume we go with Carlos Sanchez vs. looking at outside options (either via FA or trade)?

 

PS: I think it is just as likely that Johnson starts at 2B anyway so now we are trading a utility guy for an above average major league starter.

I don't know if I agree with the bolded...it's too early to say Marcus couldn't be a special player.

 

That said, I'd move Semien for Shark but not Anderson.

[Rowand44]

As I've said before, besides Wite I'm probably Marcus' biggest fan but he's gone in a heartbeat if he's the main piece in a deal for JS.

[Princess Dye]

If we would never pay Samardzjia's next contract out for a top flight starter, then we are pretty darn intent I guess on being Tampa or Oakland. My belief is the Sox need to spend to ignite their fandom. It's a fandom that is present but need to be sold on the team. And they do have to build lasting connections with players. That's part of the thing here -- instead of what Beane does which is moving talent out ASAP to get younger nonstop. A ton of people live within driving distance of US Cellular, and you saw them at the '05 parade. Interest is there but has to be sparked. We need to sell a product to those people. Not sign bargain deals only and hope a pitching staff magically arises where everyone is cheap for years on end.

 

If we're serious then a guy with Shark's career pitch count would be paid what he's about to get. By us.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[Rowand44]

Shields is not the pitcher that JS is. Having him at the top of the rotation makes the Sox a much better team. I like shields but he will command too many years at his age. If the sox could get shields on a 3 year deal, i would agree with you.

Makes it difficult when they have the same initials.

[southsider2k5]

The career pitch count is part of the allure of Shark. Shields has the highest # thrown ( i believe) of this offseason's top available guys.

 

Shields threw 252 innings this year (when including the post season), and has been over 200 for eight straight years. It is up to the end user to decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing to bet on.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't know if I agree with the bolded...it's too early to say Marcus couldn't be a special player.

 

That said, I'd move Semien for Shark but not Anderson.

I think Semien has a chance to be an average to slightly above average ball player. My view of that is because he doesn't have insane power at the position, doesn't show the ability to win a batting title, and doesn't play premium defense or play a premium position. He does have the chance to be an above average offensive player, but "special", perennial all star, I don't think so. I think Tim Anderson has a chance to be the games best offensive player at a premium position (meaning..best offensive shortstop in the game...not best offensive player in the game). Book is still out there on his defense and I'm not saying it will happen, however, Anderson is an explosive athlete with a big time hit tool. He is still extremely raw so bust factor is high as well.

 

Just my 2 cents, but we obviously agree in general on willingness to move Semien for Shark. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, we also have significant organizational depth at 2B (in terms of guys who have a shot at being serviceable players at a cheap cost).

[southsider2k5]

PS: I just saw the insaneness of the 2nd part of your post. Why trade for Shark and sign him now, when you could wait a year and sign him as a FA? Well, one, we are playing and designing a plan to be a contending team this year (and a top 3 of Sale / Q / Shark is as good as any in baseball) and two, that price of an extension might be significantly more expensive with Shark on the open market vs. shark today. You have far more teams competing for him, etc. I will continue to say that your style / approach is to only have guys who are more valuable then their contract, never anything less, and under your scenario's, we either give at bats to guys who are young and may or may not have talent (as you don't know unless you give them like 3 years worth of at bats given your general approach to patience) and surround that with guys who you sign to one year deals coming off lousy previous years but with good stuff...who may or may not rebound...you will hit on a few, fail on others, and continuously be a horrific ball club.

 

Edit: Okay I give, we might not be horrific, but we will never win a world series / be a consistent contender with that approach.

 

Because it takes one idiot team to make sure you don't get the player back.

[southsider2k5]

Ultimately I probably would trade Semien for Samardzija, but I'd try and take about every avenue possible to avoid it.

 

I would have been already asking where to sign the deal.

[iamshack]

I am sorry but this post is just an insane overvaluation of Marcus Semien, who I happen to like. If we could get Semiene for a yr of Shark, I would do it every day and twice on Sunday because at the deadline, there is a high likelihood if we were out of contention I could sell him for far better talent than Marcus Semien. Plus, I fully expect the Sox to make a significant run at resigning Shark if we were to trade for him. Trading Tim Anderson with no intention of signing Shark to an extension, would be something I would have an issue with. Anderson has a chance to be a special player, Semien does not. You also can't view this in a vacuum, if you trade Semien for Shark, why do you just assume we go with Carlos Sanchez vs. looking at outside options (either via FA or trade)?

 

PS: I think it is just as likely that Johnson starts at 2B anyway so now we are trading a utility guy for an above average major league starter.

I don't know if I agree with the bolded...it's too early to say Marcus couldn't be a special player.

 

That said, I'd move Semien for Shark but not Anderson.

[southsider2k5]

I don't know if I agree with the bolded...it's too early to say Marcus couldn't be a special player.

 

That said, I'd move Semien for Shark but not Anderson.

 

I don't see any tools that scream above average player. Decent across the board? Sure. Like I said, I would top him out at a 50/80 potentially, with a more realistic expectation of a 40 to 45 average grade.

[Chisoxfn]

Because it takes one idiot team to make sure you don't get the player back.

Exactly. If all you had to pay to get Shark now (a season earlier and when you have exclusive rights to negotiate with him), was a guy like Semien, you do it and not worry. Heck, even if it was a year earlier than when the club intended to contend, I'd do it, however, with guys like Abreu, Sale and Q and the general value they bring, now is the time to look to contend and start our window. Is this year aggressive, sure, but there is no reason with that sort of front of the rotation, you can't be in the picture. Favorite...no, but possible, certainly.

[ptatc]

Makes it difficult when they have the same initials.

Good point. Shields was easier to spell and takes less time with my limited typing skills.

[Harry Chappas]

Except you seem to think a Semien for Shark offer is absurd for the Sox and I am telling you that is a hang-up the phone type offer for Beane.

 

After the season Shark can get the White Sox a draft pick back that could be very high and is the reason Semien for Shark makes no sense to Oakland.

[harfman77]

Well I don't

 

But really, I just want it resolved so we can figure out how the A's take way too much from the White Sox again while they seemingly give away guys like Donaldson and Moss to the opposition for jacksquat.

 

 

Jacksquat? Lawrie has been a much better player to this point than Donaldson was at the same point in his career.

[witesoxfan]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

[witesoxfan]

Jacksquat? Lawrie has been a much better player to this point than Donaldson was at the same point in his career.

 

He's better than Jose Bautista was too but are you going to trade him for Brett Lawrie?

 

Donaldson came up late and is older than people realize, but if he's not a superstar, he's pretty damn close and he has like 3-4 years of team control remaining. Meanwhile, claiming that Lawrie has been anything but a huge bust to this point is crazy.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I like Semien, but if the main part of the trade is Semien for Shark, it's done yesterday.

[Dick Allen]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

IMO, every position is important. 2B happens to be where the Sox have some depth.

[ptatc]

Jacksquat? Lawrie has been a much better player to this point than Donaldson was at the same point in his career.

I think it's more that he is cost controlled for a long er period of time as well. Plus Beane got a really good prospect with him. I'ts more that the entire package of players the a's received was better long term than Donaldson

[Eminor3rd]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

 

A lot of people don't realize that the WAR positional adjustment for 2B is identical to 3B.

 

I know a lot people don't see any value in WAR, but I do think it's interesting that the sabermetric community considers those positions equally important and the talent equally rare.

[Eminor3rd]

IMO, every position is important. 2B happens to be where the Sox have some depth.

 

This is the main point.

[southsider2k5]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

 

I think the idea is that more teams have bad 2B than other positions, so you aren't as likely to trail other teams. The other side is it makes a guy like Cano worth a LOT more because of position scarcity.

[Dick Allen]

If Gillaspie didn't hit like he hit the first 3 or 4 months and Beckham didn't start the season injured, Semien would probably be considered a 3B right now.

 

I don't think the White Sox think much of him defensively.

[Chisoxfn]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

Most people reacted extremely negative to that deal because it was less important / less impactful. Bottom line is a league average 2B is not near as productive / valuable as say a league average cf'er, etc. Basically put, standards are less. Is it easier to find a league average centerfielder or a league average catcher? I know someone will say, league average is league average, however, I tend to view it from the standpoint, guys with less tools, less overall credentials, prospect status, etc, have a higher probability of being league average at say catcher / 2B than other positions. A lot of that, in regards to 2B, is driven by the fact that the position doesn't require as many tools or as good of tools to succeed than other positions.

 

Cano signed for such big money (and if you remember, it was significantly more then any other team offered) because the Mariners needed to overpay to sign him but they also needed to drastically change their culture and try to find a bat that could play in that stadium. Cano is a very special hitter and will go down as one of, if not, the greatest 2B to ever play the game and even than, I don't know that long term that deal will be all that great and it was an extreme overpay by a team who had to, to bring in an impact bat and try to drive a contender.

 

Sox also have 4 guys who could potentially play 2B as well.

[royoung]

I am trusting Rick Hahn has the long term picture in mind here because three things scare me about this potential deal.

 

1) Cost of the talent going to Oakland. Obviously hot debate about Semien's future but if Anderson is going back I am not going to be happy. Would be Semien plus others even if Anderson isn't included.

 

2) Would he sign an extension with us? This is key because then it would lock up Sale/Q/Shark/Rodon for the next four years.

 

3) Finally, what is the price of said extension? If he wants 120 million plus, I would agree with the other posters who are in favor of just going out and getting Shields/Scherzer.

 

If Hahn can navigate those three things, give minimal value in terms of players and sign him to a reasonable extension, I would be ecstatic about this move. However, that is a lot of uncertainty.