Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[ptatc]

A lot of people don't realize that the WAR positional adjustment for 2B is identical to 3B.

 

I know a lot people don't see any value in WAR, but I do think it's interesting that the sabermetric community considers those positions equally important and the talent equally rare.

I think that is deficiency in the WAR calculation then. It is not as rare to find a good defensive 2B as a good 3B. They may be equal as far as run prevention as the 2B is more instrumental in double plays as such but finding a good #B is harder.

[harfman77]

He's better than Jose Bautista was too but are you going to trade him for Brett Lawrie?

 

Donaldson came up late and is older than people realize, but if he's not a superstar, he's pretty damn close and he has like 3-4 years of team control remaining. Meanwhile, claiming that Lawrie has been anything but a huge bust to this point is crazy.

 

Donaldson was a huge bust at the same point as well, and thats why the A's got him as a thrown in from the Cubs. Donaldson is going to be very expensive in arbitration and the move allows the A's to put a quality player out there at a lower cost, pick up three additional prospects, one of which has a very high ceiling, and continue to re-tool.

 

This was pretty much inevitable when Beane traded all of the quality depth in the organization this summer to make a run for the pennant. After they trade Shark they will dangle Kazmir out there to whoever misses on Lester and Hamels.

[Eminor3rd]

I think that is deficiency in the WAR calculation then. It is not as rare to find a good defensive 2B as a good 3B. They may be equal as far as run prevention as the 2B is more instrumental in double plays as such but finding a good #B is harder.

 

Well, the positional adjustments aren't based on defense, they're based on mean offensive value. So really what it's saying is that it's just as hard to find a good hitting 3B as it is to find a good hitting 2B, which "feels" weird because 3Bs were all like Vinny Castilla during the steroid era, but when you look around the league, seems more normal.

 

The defensive contributions are then thrown on top, and those vary greatly because of the different types of plays each makes, as you alluded to.

[harfman77]

People keep claiming that 2B is one that is the least impactful or least important. Why? I'd like to understand the reasoning behind that because I sure don't understand it.

 

And then I'd point out that Robinson Cano signed a 10 year, $240 million deal. I believe the Mariners overpaid, but that was a franchise that surely felt that 2B was not the least important position on the field and they almost clinched a Wild Card spot last year and are in great position to do so this year.

 

Because second base is usually the easiest position to find. Lots of teams end up acquiring high ceiling SS's, 3B's, and OF's through the amateur selection process, and usually if a guys bat is good, he is relatively athletic, but glove is there to stick at a spot, he will end up at 2B. Its the place where you stash a guy with a solid bat and average defensive skills. Anderson could be a high end offensive 2B still, we will see what happens with his defense, if not he will end up on the other side of the IF.

[harfman77]

Well, the positional adjustments aren't based on defense, they're based on mean offensive value. So really what it's saying is that it's just as hard to find a good hitting 3B as it is to find a good hitting 2B, which "feels" weird because 3Bs were all like Vinny Castilla during the steroid era, but when you look around the league, seems more normal.

 

The defensive contributions are then thrown on top, and those vary greatly because of the different types of plays each makes, as you alluded to.

 

The 3B position has really been an offensive blackhole for much of the league over the last decade as well, so that makes sense.

[daggins]

It's looking like Boston will not land Lester, if rumors are to be trusted (who knows).

 

I would wager we should know if this happens soon.

[ptatc]

Well, the positional adjustments aren't based on defense, they're based on mean offensive value. So really what it's saying is that it's just as hard to find a good hitting 3B as it is to find a good hitting 2B, which "feels" weird because 3Bs were all like Vinny Castilla during the steroid era, but when you look around the league, seems more normal.

 

The defensive contributions are then thrown on top, and those vary greatly because of the different types of plays each makes, as you alluded to.

Makes senseand that could be true as defense is a big part of 3B so good hitters who can't play good D (carlos Lee) aren't kept at third. But I still see it as a major deficiency in WAR because it really doesn't take defense into consideration. So the best that WAR does is compare offense at the same position.

[witesoxfan]

Because second base is usually the easiest position to find. Lots of teams end up acquiring high ceiling SS's, 3B's, and OF's through the amateur selection process, and usually if a guys bat is good, he is relatively athletic, but glove is there to stick at a spot, he will end up at 2B. Its the place where you stash a guy with a solid bat and average defensive skills. Anderson could be a high end offensive 2B still, we will see what happens with his defense, if not he will end up on the other side of the IF.

 

If 2B were so easy to find, there would be a ton of really good ones out there. That's not the case.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

There are maybe 8 or 9 guys on there that I think you could safely say are very good.

 

It's impossible to deny that the Sox have depth at the position, but if it were that easy to fill, we'd know who it was moving forward and they wouldn't have had a blackhole there over the last 5 years.

[Eminor3rd]

Makes senseand that could be true as defense is a big part of 3B so good hitters who can't play good D (carlos Lee) aren't kept at third. But I still see it as a major deficiency in WAR because it really doesn't take defense into consideration. So the best that WAR does is compare offense at the same position.

 

No, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that defense isn't factored into WAR -- it IS factored into WAR. It's just that the "positional adjustment" piece of WAR is based on offense. UZR/DRS are converted to runs saved and factored into WAR separately from total offense.

[Whisox05]

It's looking like Boston will not land Lester, if rumors are to be trusted (who knows).

 

I would wager we should know if this happens soon.

 

I was wondering if Boston low offer of trying to extend lester and then trading him didn't hurt their chances. Supposedly he's down to cubs giants barring last min change which I'm surprised. Hopefully pitcher market gets going once he decides.

[ptatc]

No, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that defense isn't factored into WAR -- it IS factored into WAR. It's just that the "positional adjustment" piece of WAR is based on offense. UZR/DRS are converted to runs saved and factored into WAR separately from total offense.

Ok. that makes more sense in my interpretation of WAR as well. while I'm still not sold on it, it makes a better attempt this way.

[ptatc]

If 2B were so easy to find, there would be a ton of really good ones out there. That's not the case.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

There are maybe 8 or 9 guys on there that I think you could safely say are very good.

 

It's impossible to deny that the Sox have depth at the position, but if it were that easy to fill, we'd know who it was moving forward and they wouldn't have had a blackhole there over the last 5 years.

I'm not sure if the comments were that it was easy. I think it was that the 2B/utility role is easier to fill and not as important as a top of the rotation starter.

[harfman77]

If 2B were so easy to find, there would be a ton of really good ones out there. That's not the case.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

There are maybe 8 or 9 guys on there that I think you could safely say are very good.

 

It's impossible to deny that the Sox have depth at the position, but if it were that easy to fill, we'd know who it was moving forward and they wouldn't have had a blackhole there over the last 5 years.

 

There aren't that many good infielders out there in general. They had it filled, they drafted a college SS that could not stick at SS, tried him at third and then settled him in at second. He hit really well through the minors and in his rookie season, so it seemed to be an issue that was not an issue. Then he regressed and they waited for him to rebound before cutting ties with an asset that had been very valuable that had lost all of its value. We don't know who it is, but we have a pretty good idea that its going to be Sanchez to start the season unless Alexei is dealt.

[ptatc]

There aren't that many good infielders out there in general. They had it filled, they drafted a college SS that could not stick at SS, tried him at third and then settled him in at second. He hit really well through the minors and in his rookie season, so it seemed to be an issue that was not an issue. Then he regressed and they waited for him to rebound before cutting ties with an asset that had been very valuable that had lost all of its value. We don't know who it is, but we have a pretty good idea that its going to be Sanchez to start the season unless Alexei is dealt.

I still think they will start johnson there, unless he totally fails in ST.

[witesoxfan]

I'm not sure if the comments were that it was easy. I think it was that the 2B/utility role is easier to fill and not as important as a top of the rotation starter.

 

If the White Sox are an example to follow, then that's not exactly true. Seems to me that in the past 10 years, the Sox have had several front of the rotation starters but only had one above average 2B during that entire time frame in Tadahito Iguchi. People saying that it's easy or that it's not as important have yet to really win me over with that argument. Frankly, if Semien is dealt, the Sox are looking at Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson as the internal candidates at 2B. Those two were both less than impressive at both AAA and the MLB, depending on where either ended up.

 

All we can say at this point is we'll see.

[ptatc]

If the White Sox are an example to follow, that's not exactly true anymore either. Seems to me that in the past 10 years, the Sox have had several front of the rotation starters but only had one above average 2B during that entire time frame in Tadahito Iguchi. People saying that it's easy or that it's not as important have yet to really win me over with that argument. Frankly, if Semien is dealt, the Sox are looking at Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson as the internal candidates at 2B. Those two were both less than impressive at both AAA and the MLB, depending on where either ended up.

 

All we can say at this point is we'll see.

I think the Sox are the exception to the rule. They have had a awful record developing hitters of any postion not even poor but awful.

[witesoxfan]

I think the Sox are the exception to the rule. They have had a awful record developing hitters of any postion not even poor but awful.

 

Part of this is me being difficult, but it feels like a worthwhile discussion. Some of it may be a moot point because who knows if the Sox trade for Samardzija or who they trade to get him.

[ptatc]

Part of this is me being difficult, but it feels like a worthwhile discussion. Some of it may be a moot point because who knows if the Sox trade for Samardzija or who they trade to get him.

I agee. It is worthwhile.

Edited December 8, 2014 by ptatc

[The Ginger Kid]

Glad to see they're meeting with Masterson.

[ChiSox59]

Something happen!!

[Chisoxfn]

If the White Sox are an example to follow, then that's not exactly true. Seems to me that in the past 10 years, the Sox have had several front of the rotation starters but only had one above average 2B during that entire time frame in Tadahito Iguchi. People saying that it's easy or that it's not as important have yet to really win me over with that argument. Frankly, if Semien is dealt, the Sox are looking at Carlos Sanchez and Micah Johnson as the internal candidates at 2B. Those two were both less than impressive at both AAA and the MLB, depending on where either ended up.

 

All we can say at this point is we'll see.

Technically, outside of this past year, wasn't Gordon Beckham pretty close to a league average 2B (when factoring in his defense)? Slightly below average, but close?

[Rowand44]

I also LOVE the idea of somehow getting Reddick added to this. Not sure what that would do to the cost to bring Jeff in but I believe adding a top defender in the outfield would do wonders for this team.

[Chisoxfn]

I also LOVE the idea of somehow getting Reddick added to this. Not sure what that would do to the cost to bring Jeff in but I believe adding a top defender in the outfield would do wonders for this team.

Agree Shark and Reddick would be great additions.

[daggins]

shark and reddick for montas, anderson, webb and semien

[witesoxfan]

shark and reddick for montas, anderson, webb and semien

 

I'd probably have a mild stroke. There's nothing quite like giving up all your prospects of value in one shot.