Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

He asked the Cubs for something similar to Homer Bailey's deal, which was 6/105

 

Bailey was 27 when he signed his 6 year deal.

 

Samardzija will be 31 before his new contract starts.

 

I don't see him getting 6 yrs/$105. I see him getting 4 years, maybe a 5th year option.

[witesoxfan]

Sure, many large pitching contracts have been painful, but I think Samardzija is a bit unique. And 4 years just won't get it done. If you want to compete in the front line pitching space, you have to take on risk. I think there is a very real chance he is healthy and good for the next 4-5 years. If that's the case you are looking at a rotation that could potentially be what Detroit has had the last 5 years, with Abreu's prime anchoring the lineup.

 

I just don't see the need for the Sox to enter a 6 year contract with anybody, and I think there are plenty of better pitchers to acquire than Jeff Samardzija.

 

As I've said, I like Samardzija the pitcher, but there are way too many red flags overall on this for it to make sense for the White Sox. And those are not just red flags for Samardzija himself. The biggest red flag for Jeff Samardzija is frankly one we can ignore and that's that he's a pitcher, and we ignore it because of the fact that teams will always need pitchers. But he's going to be expensive to acquire and he's going to be expensive to retain.

 

Consider that Max Scherzer is ultimately a better pitcher than Jeff Samardzija, costs only a 2nd round pick for the Sox to sign, and he's only going to be $5 mill (or so) more per year on the free agent market. Meanwhile, Samardzija is going to have to be acquired via trade and then re-signed. How much are you really willing to give up for that? Personally, I'd give something like Rondon, Beck, and Trayce Thompson and tell them to take it or leave it (they'd leave it) because you can just as easily lose Samardzija and then all you'll have to show for him is a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. Even knowing that those prospects are, frankly, nothing special, I'd still prefer to sign Scherzer.

 

The stars would really have to align perfectly for the Sox to acquire Samardzija. Frankly, I think Beane will just end up keeping him and either dealing him at the deadline or taking the draft pick for him unless a team who is closer to contention wants to take a risk on him.

[witesoxfan]

Bailey was 27 when he signed his 6 year deal.

 

Samardzija will be 31 before his new contract starts.

 

I don't see him getting 6 yrs/$105. I see him getting 4 years, maybe a 5th year option.

 

James Shields turns 33 in a month and a half and they're seeking (and could very well get) a 5 year contract.

 

Samardzija and his agent would be failing miserably taking 4 years. Assuming health, his first contract offer from an inquiring team would be for 5 years.

[Eminor3rd]

A lot of it would depend on how well 2015 goes, too.

[southsider2k5]

Bailey was 27 when he signed his 6 year deal.

 

Samardzija will be 31 before his new contract starts.

I don't see him getting 6 yrs/$105. I see him getting 4 years, maybe a 5th year option.

 

Welcome to 2014. That isn't even a big contract anymore for a front line pitcher.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

James Shields turns 33 in a month and a half and they're seeking (and could very well get) a 5 year contract.

 

Samardzija and his agent would be failing miserably taking 4 years. Assuming health, his first contract offer from an inquiring team would be for 5 years.

 

And James Shields has been a tremendously better pitcher than Samardzija. Since Shark's first full starting season, he has a 9.5 WAR over 3 years. Shields has had a 12.1 WAR.

 

Outside of 1 bad year, Shields has never had less than a 3.5 WAR. He averages about 225 IP per year, a mark Samardzija has never reached.

 

I think 5 years is too long for Shields too, but he has a far better track record than Samardzija.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Chilihead90

[credezcrew24]

777.2 MLB innings plus 485.1 MiLB innings equals 1263 career professional innings. Chris Sale has 685 innings in his professional career. Samardzija's arm is not as young as people think either.

 

The more I look into the market the more I think Max Scherzer is a relatively good value. Including the Minors and Ind Scherzer had 1418.2 career regular season innings which isn't far off from Samardzija. We would probably have to give up significantly more value in a trade for Samardzija then what our 2nd round pick will end up being.

 

MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents and Predictions has Scherzer getting around 7 years 175 million - 25 million per - which would take him to about the time he's 37. For Shields the next best RHP they predict about 5 years 100 million - 20 million per - that contract would also take him to 37 years old. Shields has thrown 2464.2 career innings already. Shields and Scherzer would both cost a draft pick as well.

 

Scherzer is without a doubt vastly superior to Shields and Samardzija right now. I don't think the difference in predicted average salary is enough to warrant signing Shields over him, and I don't think it's smart to trade for a pitcher on a one year deal when if all goes according to plan he would demand a contract close to the Shields-Scherzer range in the first place.

[BlackSox13]

Oh for f*** sake. If were talking about pitchers that as roughly 30 and want six year deals then just go for it all and throw the money at Scherzer. Scherzer is only six months older than Samardjiza, will only cost a second round pick as far as young talent goes but will cost more annually. The higher annual salary is a small price to pay for such an elite pitcher.

 

That said, I'm not in favor of giving either long term contracts but if I had to chose one to give a long term deal to, it would be Scherzer.

 

 

[BlackSox13]

The more I look into the market the more I think Max Scherzer is a relatively good value. Including the Minors and Ind Scherzer had 1418.2 career regular season innings which isn't far off from Samardzija. We would probably have to give up significantly more value in a trade for Samardzija then what our 2nd round pick will end up being.

 

MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents and Predictions has Scherzer getting around 7 years 175 million - 25 million per - which would take him to about the time he's 37. For Shields the next best RHP they predict about 5 years 100 million - 20 million per - that contract would also take him to 37 years old. Shields has thrown 2464.2 career innings already. Shields and Scherzer would both cost a draft pick as well.

 

Scherzer is without a doubt vastly superior to Shields and Samardzija right now. I don't think the difference in predicted average salary is enough to warrant signing Shields over him, and I don't think it's smart to trade for a pitcher on a one year deal when if all goes according to plan he would demand a contract close to the Shields-Scherzer range in the first place.

Welcome to the board.

 

You must have posted your comment seconds before me. I feel the same way about Scherzer.

[witesoxfan]

And the thing is, Scherzer is a terrible investment at that price too, but it is better than Samardzija.

 

Frankly, the Sox don't need to be looking to overpay for a starting pitcher right now. 56 pitchers put up an fWAR of 2 and 61 pitchers put up a bWAR of 2 last year, meaning there are plenty of good pitchers around the league. The Sox should attempt to acquire one of those guys rather than splurging and spending all this money they've freed up on a great starting pitcher when they already have 2 of those, another top 10 pitching prospect in the game at AAA plus several others with a mixed bag of ceilings between the A+ and AAA levels. If they are going to spend a signficant amount of money on one player, it should be for an offensive player.

 

The three names that make the most sense to me to fill a slot in the rotation are (in my preferred order) Brandon McCarthy, Jason Hammel, and Justin Masterson. There are a few others who would not be bad options, but those are the ones I think I'd prefer.

 

[southsider2k5]

Oh for f*** sake. If were talking about pitchers that as roughly 30 and want six year deals then just go for it all and throw the money at Scherzer. Scherzer is only six months older than Samardjiza, will only cost a second round pick as far as young talent goes but will cost more annually. The higher annual salary is a small price to pay for such an elite pitcher.

 

That said, I'm not in favor of giving either long term contracts but if I had to chose one to give a long term deal to, it would be Scherzer.

 

He would only take about double the money that Smardj would.

[Whisox05]

And the thing is, Scherzer is a terrible investment at that price too, but it is better than Samardzija.

 

Frankly, the Sox don't need to be looking to overpay for a starting pitcher right now. 56 pitchers put up an fWAR of 2 and 61 pitchers put up a bWAR of 2 last year, meaning there are plenty of good pitchers around the league. The Sox should attempt to acquire one of those guys rather than splurging and spending all this money they've freed up on a great starting pitcher when they already have 2 of those, another top 10 pitching prospect in the game at AAA plus several others with a mixed bag of ceilings between the A+ and AAA levels. If they are going to spend a signficant amount of money on one player, it should be for an offensive player.

 

The three names that make the most sense to me to fill a slot in the rotation are (in my preferred order) Brandon McCarthy, Jason Hammel, and Justin Masterson. There are a few others who would not be bad options, but those are the ones I think I'd prefer.

 

Scherzer is probably out of question but i have no idea what everyones interest in McCarthy, Hammel, and Masterson is. People again think danks suck and want to get ride of his contract but if you replace him with one of these three pitchers you are basically getting the same exact thing. They all have around the same career eras. McCarthy cant stay healthy long enough. Masterson has 2 season of eras in the 3s that made at least 100 innings. They all have the same pitching time frame of 7-9 years and magically danks has more innings then any of these guys. If the sox want to compete then they better throw some money at free agency for a better pitcher or trade for one. Right now the rotation is sale, quintana, danks and probably noesi. If they do add a pitcher and rodon does go into the rotation right off the bat then getting rid of danks is fine cause noesi most likely takes his spot.

[witesoxfan]

Scherzer is probably out of question but i have no idea what everyones interest in McCarthy, Hammel, and Masterson is. People again think danks suck and want to get ride of his contract but if you replace him with one of these three pitchers you are basically getting the same exact thing. They all have around the same career eras. McCarthy cant stay healthy long enough. Masterson has 2 season of eras in the 3s that made at least 100 innings. They all have the same pitching time frame of 7-9 years and magically danks has more innings then any of these guys. If the sox want to compete then they better throw some money at free agency for a better pitcher or trade for one. Right now the rotation is sale, quintana, danks and probably noesi. If they do add a pitcher and rodon does go into the rotation right off the bat then getting rid of danks is fine cause noesi most likely takes his spot.

 

Danks is a far different pitcher now than he was 3 or 4 years ago. You can't look at career ERAs and say "they are all the same pitcher." McCarthy and Hammel are far superior pitchers to Danks at this point in their careers. Masterson is debatable, but he's almost certainly only going to require a 1 year contract and if he flops, you can just cut your losses or try him out of the bullpen. There's no $28 million committment to him over the next 2 years like there is to Danks.

 

Danks is a #4-5 starter at his absolute best right now, unless his velocity and command are magically restored between now and 4/1/15. McCarthy and Hammel both have #2-3 potential who are almost assured of pitching like a #4 even at their worst.

[shakes]

And the thing is, Scherzer is a terrible investment at that price too, but it is better than Samardzija.

 

Frankly, the Sox don't need to be looking to overpay for a starting pitcher right now. 56 pitchers put up an fWAR of 2 and 61 pitchers put up a bWAR of 2 last year, meaning there are plenty of good pitchers around the league. The Sox should attempt to acquire one of those guys rather than splurging and spending all this money they've freed up on a great starting pitcher when they already have 2 of those, another top 10 pitching prospect in the game at AAA plus several others with a mixed bag of ceilings between the A+ and AAA levels. If they are going to spend a signficant amount of money on one player, it should be for an offensive player.

 

The three names that make the most sense to me to fill a slot in the rotation are (in my preferred order) Brandon McCarthy, Jason Hammel, and Justin Masterson. There are a few others who would not be bad options, but those are the ones I think I'd prefer.

 

Those three have huge question marks and will still cost a decent amount. I'm just in the camp if the Sox are going to go after pitching, go big. Lock the rotation up for the next several years with something potentially very special. Slide some of our big young arms into the bullpen, find a bat or two, and make a run at this thing.

 

[BlackSox13]

He would only take about double the money that Smardj would.

While it won't be double I do see your point. I was thinking Scherzer would get around 25M annually but its looking closer to 30M with Samardjiza looking like 17/18M now (extension) and probably 20M or more if he has a good season and hits FA next year.

 

I still would not give top prospects for Samardjiza, the Sox can do better.

[daggins]

Dunno if this has been pointed out, but the A's need a SS. I could see an Alexei for Shark trade working out, with some other parts moving in the deal. Probably an A's prospect to Chicago.

[Whisox05]

Danks is a far different pitcher now than he was 3 or 4 years ago. You can't look at career ERAs and say "they are all the same pitcher." McCarthy and Hammel are far superior pitchers to Danks at this point in their careers. Masterson is debatable, but he's almost certainly only going to require a 1 year contract and if he flops, you can just cut your losses or try him out of the bullpen. There's no $28 million committment to him over the next 2 years like there is to Danks.

 

Danks is a #4-5 starter at his absolute best right now, unless his velocity and command are magically restored between now and 4/1/15. McCarthy and Hammel both have #2-3 potential who are almost assured of pitching like a #4 even at their worst.

 

Hammel era ballooned up to a 4.26 era when he came back to the al in just 67.2 innings pitched. Seems to me he would be a a 4 plus era in a full season in the al. He only pitched 176.1 innings which is less then danks. McCarthy pitched 200 innings for the first time in his career tho the first part of last year 5.01 era in 109 innings in the nl. I did do better in the al going 90 innings for 2.89 for the yankees. McCarthy and hammel are probably going to be 10 millions plus average a year pitchers when they sign their new contracts whether its one year or more. Not to far off from danks average salary. The only team i see taking danks contract with chance of eating it all is the yankees. then you might save a couple million signing one of the other 2.

[Whisox05]

Dunno if this has been pointed out, but the A's need a SS. I could see an Alexei for Shark trade working out, with some other parts moving in the deal. Probably an A's prospect to Chicago.

 

 

This is one of the solution i can see is alexei going to the A's for samardzija. Their top prospect is a ss but might be still of a couple years away. If the A's dont want to take on the extra salary of Ramirez or prefer younger talent then maybe a three team deal with the mets might help. Ramirez goes to mets, samardzija goes to the sox and prospects back to the A's from the sox and mets. Would maybe help not shedding so much of our prospects.

Edited November 8, 2014 by WhiteSoxLifer

[GreenSox]

This is one of the solution i can see is alexei going to the A's for samardzija. Their top prospect is a ss but might be still of a couple years away. If the A's dont want to take on the extra salary of Ramirez or prefer younger talent then maybe a three team deal with the mets might help. Ramirez goes to mets, samardzija goes to the sox and prospects back to the A's from the sox and mets. Would maybe help not shedding so much of our prospects.

Again, why do people want the Sox to trade for 1 year rent when they are coming off of 73 wins and are trying to build a team?

Heck they should take Alexei and give us a prospect. Shark isn't elite.

 

 

Edited November 8, 2014 by GreenSox

[Baron]

Again, why do people want the Sox to trade for 1 year rent when they are coming off of 73 wins and are trying to build a team?

Heck they should take Alexei and give us a prospect. Shark isn't elite.

 

Isnt it obvious why they would do a trade like this when listening to Hahn's comments?

[AlSoxfan]

Dunno if this has been pointed out, but the A's need a SS. I could see an Alexei for Shark trade working out, with some other parts moving in the deal. Probably an A's prospect to Chicago.

I'd like to see the Sox get Shark but not for Lexi

[southsider2k5]

While it won't be double I do see your point. I was thinking Scherzer would get around 25M annually but its looking closer to 30M with Samardjiza looking like 17/18M now (extension) and probably 20M or more if he has a good season and hits FA next year.

 

I still would not give top prospects for Samardjiza, the Sox can do better.

 

In terms of total contract, it will end up being about double

[Bob Sacamano]

If you trade for Samardzija and can't workout an extension during this off-season or mid-season, you can at least offer a qualifying offer next off-season while still trying to work out a deal for him to come back so you can at least re-coup something if he were to sign somewhere else from a potential deal.

[Balta1701]

If you trade for Samardzija and can't workout an extension during this off-season or mid-season, you can at least offer a qualifying offer next off-season while still trying to work out a deal for him to come back so you can at least re-coup something if he were to sign somewhere else from a potential deal.

The value of a comp pick is so far behind the value of a guy who is 1-2 years away from potentially reaching the big leagues that it really shouldn't factor into your thinking. At the very least you'd be talking about a guy 5 years away. If you can't sign him long term, you can't do that trade.

[peavy44]

If you trade for Samardzija and can't workout an extension during this off-season or mid-season, you can at least offer a qualifying offer next off-season while still trying to work out a deal for him to come back so you can at least re-coup something if he were to sign somewhere else from a potential deal.

 

 

 

didnt Samardzija grow up a white sox fan.