Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[LDF]

There isn't low end free agents getting compensation picks. It's really only the high end free agents getting compensation picks. 12 players got qualifying offers in 2014 were Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, James Shields, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Ervin Santana, Michael Cuddyer, and Pablo Sandoval. Those are high end free agents. Only other free agents that are higher end didn't get the qualifying offer is either traded during the season or were on options and team/player declined them.

 

you are very much right, but Lester is an elite pitcher. that

is the selling point.

[Whisox05]

There's no reason for the A's to trade Samardzija if they're not getting a high level talent back. A team in competition this year should be willing to give up a top prospect in exchange for a season of a pitcher who put up 4 WAR last year.

 

There's no reason for Beane to accept less than a high level talent. Certainly not as high as what he gave up to get Samardzija, but still a very high level guy.

 

Of course, there was no reason for him to give up Donaldson for the weak haul he got, so maybe the White Sox could get a steal here and maybe that's why they were in this conversation in the first place, but "assuming Billy Beane doesn't make another silly move" seems like a reasonable standard from my POV.

 

Again the reason I believe Donaldson was traded was because he was going to get very expensive in arbitration. Beane wasn't ever going to lock him up so trade him now for prospects and use the money saved to invest back into team. Beane has to make every sent count with their payroll. It's going to be the same in trading samardzija. He gets to skip paying 10 million to him in 2015 and gets younger cost controlled prospects back. He does this all the time if someone is getting close to free agency or going to get expensive in arbitration.

Edited December 3, 2014 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Balta1701]

Again the reason I believe Donaldson was traded was because he was going to get very expensive in arbitration. Beane wasn't ever going to lock him up so trade him now for prospects and use the money saved to invest back into team. Beane has to make every sent count with their payroll. It's going to be the same in trading samardzija. He gets to skip paying 10 million to him in 2015 and gets younger cost controlled prospects back. He does this all the time if some is getting close to free agency or going to get expensive in arbitration.

And if Beane was willing to trade Donaldson for that reason, I'd have been willing to put together a better package than what he got if I were the White Sox GM. Everything in our system other than Rodon,Abreu,Sale, and Q would have been on the table. Hell, you might well have gotten me talking about Q.

[LDF]

And if Beane was willing to trade Donaldson for that reason, I'd have been willing to put together a better package than what he got if I were the White Sox GM. Everything in our system other than Rodon,Abreu,Sale, and Q would have been on the table. Hell, you might well have gotten me talking about Q.

 

yeah, i bet he doesn't see as Hahn as a shrewd GM and will try to

take advantage of him.

[Whisox05]

you are very much right, but Lester is an elite pitcher. that

is the selling point.

 

One is only giving up money for him. If you get a guy that you can get with only money and don't have to give up a first pick for then you get other teams involved. The Giants are supposedly involved now but they might not have been if he had a qualifying offer. Same goes for the White sox in jose abreu. They only had to give up money for not a pick too. I bet if he had a pick attached to him the white sox wouldn't have bid as high.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Again the reason I believe Donaldson was traded was because he was going to get very expensive in arbitration. Beane wasn't ever going to lock him up so trade him now for prospects and use the money saved to invest back into team. Beane has to make every sent count with their payroll. It's going to be the same in trading samardzija. He gets to skip paying 10 million to him in 2015 and gets younger cost controlled prospects back. He does this all the time if someone is getting close to free agency or going to get expensive in arbitration.

 

 

Well apparently, Beane and Donaldson didn't get along very well either.

[Y2Jimmy0]

yeah, i bet he doesn't see as Hahn as a shrewd GM and will try to

take advantage of him.

 

 

I think this is totally false. Hahn is very well respected.

[Whisox05]

And if Beane was willing to trade Donaldson for that reason, I'd have been willing to put together a better package than what he got if I were the White Sox GM. Everything in our system other than Rodon,Abreu,Sale, and Q would have been on the table. Hell, you might well have gotten me talking about Q.

 

How do you know that was a bad deal for Donaldson. Beane and company is pretty good at seeing something in players and making something of them. They generally always have good pitching. I saw some where that the pitcher graveman they got should slide right into the rotation next year. If you look at his stats he went from A ball to A+, AA, AAA and the majors last year. The ss prospect was pretty good and Brett Lawrie has had a very high ceiling but has been hurt. Beane is banking on getting him off the turf from Toronto and thinking that should keep him healthy and contributing.

[Y2Jimmy0]

There's no reason for the A's to trade Samardzija if they're not getting a high level talent back. A team in competition this year should be willing to give up a top prospect in exchange for a season of a pitcher who put up 4 WAR last year.

 

There's no reason for Beane to accept less than a high level talent. Certainly not as high as what he gave up to get Samardzija, but still a very high level guy.

 

Of course, there was no reason for him to give up Donaldson for the weak haul he got, so maybe the White Sox could get a steal here and maybe that's why they were in this conversation in the first place, but "assuming Billy Beane doesn't make another silly move" seems like a reasonable standard from my POV.

 

 

Yeah I get what you mean. The White Sox won't be getting him if that's the case though. Billy Beane isn't going to get Tim Anderson from the Sox. Are the Red Sox going to give up a top 35 prospect for Samardzija? My guess is no. Beane will either take less than that, trade him at the deadline, or ride out the year and take the comp pick. I think Samardzija goes at the Winter Meetings.

[Y2Jimmy0]

How do you know that was a bad deal for Donaldson. Beane and company is pretty good at seeing something in players and making something of them. They generally always have good pitching. I saw some where that the pitcher graveman they got should slide right into the rotation next year. If you look at his stats he went from A ball to A+, AA, AAA and the majors last year. The ss prospect was pretty good and Brett Lawrie has had a very high ceiling but has been hurt. Beane is banking on getting him off the turf from Toronto and thinking that should keep him healthy and contributing.

 

 

It's a bad deal because they traded 4 years of a 5 WAR 3B for 2 back end starters, a 19 year old bat first 2B, and Brett Lawrie. They could have gotten way more than that. Donaldson is a stud. If Beane really wanted Tim Anderson like everyone thinks, Donaldson is a guy that you'd consider trading him for.

[Balta1701]

How do you know that was a bad deal for Donaldson. Beane and company is pretty good at seeing something in players and making something of them. They generally always have good pitching. I saw some where that the pitcher graveman they got should slide right into the rotation next year. If you look at his stats he went from A ball to A+, AA, AAA and the majors last year. The ss prospect was pretty good and Brett Lawrie has had a very high ceiling but has been hurt. Beane is banking on getting him off the turf from Toronto and thinking that should keep him healthy and contributing.

The trick is...even if for some reason the Oakland A's love the guys they got back and think they'll be really good, they wasted an opportunity at the time. They could have turned Donaldson into something more valuable and used other pieces to go after those guys if they really, truly loved them and thought that everyone else was undervaluing them. With as valuable of a player as Donaldson is, they should have been able to walk away with a bunch of guys they really like in addition to at least one player everyone out there really loves and would kill to have.

 

We could call this the "Nestor Molina" rule. Yes, it made sense to move our closer, but we could have gotten more back for him and now we're missing out on that. Boston traded Josh Reddick for a closer later that year and even though our staff for some reason loved Molina, the better talent there won out easily. At the worst, we could have then turned Reddick into Molina + something else.

[ptatc]

Yeah I get what you mean. The White Sox won't be getting him if that's the case though. Billy Beane isn't going to get Tim Anderson from the Sox. Are the Red Sox going to give up a top 35 prospect for Samardzija? My guess is no. Beane will either take less than that, trade him at the deadline, or ride out the year and take the comp pick. I think Samardzija goes at the Winter Meetings.

All it takes is for two teams to start bidding for crazy things to happen. With the signings of Panda and Ramierez they may be looking to start the winning now. He would help.

[ptatc]

It's a bad deal because they traded 4 years of a 5 WAR 3B for 2 back end starters, a 19 year old bat first 2B, and Brett Lawrie. They could have gotten way more than that. Donaldson is a stud. If Beane really wanted Tim Anderson like everyone thinks, Donaldson is a guy that you'd consider trading him for.

Do you honestly think Beane looked at all of the deals he could have made and said, "Out of all the deals out there, this is the third best so I will take it?" He obviously, thought by his evaluations this was the best deal.

 

Maybe he knows something about Donaldson and his meteoric rise that other teams don't.

[witesoxfan]

Do you honestly think Beane looked at all of the deals he could have made and said, "Out of all the deals out there, this is the third best so I will take it?" He obviously, thought by his evaluations this was the best deal.

 

Maybe he knows something about Donaldson and his meteoric rise that other teams don't.

 

Related: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-percept...er-trade-value/

[Dick Allen]

Related: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-percept...er-trade-value/

It is funny that Cameron likes to say he made a case of it being a good trade, but then if you click on the article where he said that, he may have said that, sort of. He also made a case of it blowing up in their faces.

 

To me, these type of trades usually work out a little differently from what the original reaction was. There is some reason Oakland dealt Donaldson, and it isn't money. They have more info on him than anyone else. I don't even think it is because he called the GM Billy Boy. It doesn't appear he was shopped around.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

It is funny that Cameron likes to say he made a case of it being a good trade, but then if you click on the article where he said that, he may have said that, sort of. He also made a case of it blowing up in their faces.

 

To me, these type of trades usually work out a little differently from what the original reaction was. There is some reason Oakland dealt Donaldson, and it isn't money. They have more info on him than anyone else. I don't even think it is because he called the GM Billy Boy. It doesn't appear he was shopped around.

 

Pretty sure he was dealing with some severe back pain down the stretch last year, wasn't he? Just everything about that situation reminded me of Crede. He had a great 2006 up until September and then he was never, ever the same player again.

[southsider2k5]

Related: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-percept...er-trade-value/

 

That is a really interesting read. Thanks for posting.

[Jake]

There isn't low end free agents getting compensation picks. It's really only the high end free agents getting compensation picks. 12 players got qualifying offers in 2014 were Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, James Shields, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Ervin Santana, Michael Cuddyer, and Pablo Sandoval. Those are high end free agents. Only other free agents that are higher end didn't get the qualifying offer is either traded during the season or were on options and team/player declined them.

 

For all of those players, there isn't a ton of excess value after the draft pick. They may be high-end FA compared to Gordon Beckham but they're all forgettable players that will come with considerable risk even w/o the loss of a draft pick.

[ptatc]

Related: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-percept...er-trade-value/

As I said it's from Beane's own evaluation of the proposed deal. Just because other so-called experts don't agree, doesn't mean that Beane didn't think it was the best at the time.

Just because people not involved with the deal think he should have gotten more doesn't mean someone offered more.

Edited December 3, 2014 by ptatc

[witesoxfan]

As I said it's from Beane's own evaluation of the proposed deal. Just because other so-called experts don't agree, doesn't mean that Beane didn't think it was the best at the time.

Just because people not involved with the deal think he should have gotten more doesn't mean someone offered more.

 

I agree, and was posting the article in support of your statements. There are times when a GM knows something and takes what he can get. Sometimes GMs identify prospects they really like and they leave you scratching your head. I can think of two examples of that with the White Sox and one of them worked out (Garcia to Philly for Gio/Floyd) and one of them did not (Santos to Toronto for Molina).

[ptatc]

I agree, and was posting the article in support of your statements. There are times when a GM knows something and takes what he can get. Sometimes GMs identify prospects they really like and they leave you scratching your head. I can think of two examples of that with the White Sox and one of them worked out (Garcia to Philly for Gio/Floyd) and one of them did not (Santos to Toronto for Molina).

Sorry, I see what you mean now. I was looking at the article a little differently. Similar to what Dick Allen posted.

 

[LDF]

I think this is totally false. Hahn is very well respected.

 

yah you are prob right, but that will not stop other teams from

trying to take advantage of him.

[Balta1701]

Pretty sure he was dealing with some severe back pain down the stretch last year, wasn't he? Just everything about that situation reminded me of Crede. He had a great 2006 up until September and then he was never, ever the same player again.

If Donaldson is dealing with a long-term back issue and Beane did trade him then that's also pretty low right there, but then again it's also on Torotno for not doing their HW.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Toronto trade for an injured player? Unheard of!

[iamshack]

Or maybe this is Beane valuing Lawrie highly and Toronto being very hesitant to move him because they do as well. Keep in mind this isn't an auction process, it takes two to tango.

 

When you get into talk about a team knowing something about it's own players that other teams don't, I just don't buy into that line of thinking. If the rest of the league doesn't know it, then the market for said player should be unaffected by this knowledge and be representative of the League's knowledge of the player. Only if the danger of the knowledge coming out is imminent should that knowledge affect the market value of the player.