Sox acquire Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa

[bmags]

I said this earlier today and stand by it.

 

If the White Sox were an 87 win team last year, Tim Anderson for Jeff Samardzija would make perfect sense. Prospect with talent who is raw, ~top 50 in the big leagues, 2-ish years away from being a big league rookie and 3 years away from probably making a difference, decent bust potential, in exchange for pitcher who outperformed contract last year, no injury history, could easily push team to 90 wins and into the playoffs, fits in the rotation, and could be offered a QO/return of a draft pick at the end of the year if he's unable to be resigned.

 

That's a perfect deal for a team right on the cusp of winning a division/right on the cusp of competing to make. Even an 85 win team last year, that's perfectly sensible for the White Sox and fair value for the As.

 

The problem continues to be we're closer to a 75 win team than an 87 win team. For that reason in my eyes there continues to be literally no version of this that makes sense to me.

 

When you say no version of this do you mean no version of including Anderson? What if it is Semien.

[Princess Dye]

I said this earlier today and stand by it.

 

If the White Sox were an 87 win team last year, Tim Anderson for Jeff Samardzija would make perfect sense. Prospect with talent who is raw, ~top 50 in the big leagues, 2-ish years away from being a big league rookie and 3 years away from probably making a difference, decent bust potential, in exchange for pitcher who outperformed contract last year, no injury history, could easily push team to 90 wins and into the playoffs, fits in the rotation, and could be offered a QO/return of a draft pick at the end of the year if he's unable to be resigned.

 

That's a perfect deal for a team right on the cusp of winning a division/right on the cusp of competing to make. Even an 85 win team last year, that's perfectly sensible for the White Sox and fair value for the As.

 

The problem continues to be we're closer to a 75 win team than an 87 win team. For that reason in my eyes there continues to be literally no version of this that makes sense to me.

 

Gotta judge the offseason as a whole after it happens though. We dont know all our moves yet, so it's impossible to properly judge the (potential) Shark one. In proper context.

[Balta1701]

When you say no version of this do you mean no version of including Anderson? What if it is Semien.

Marcus Semien for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija continues to make no sense for the White Sox.

 

It makes us slightly worse next year most likely in the lineup (Sanchez becomes your full time 2b, have to go sign a utility infielder just to back up Gillaspie), which is even worse in a way than Trading Anderson since trading for Samardzija is such an "all in on 2015" move.

[ptatc]

Marcus Semien for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija continues to make no sense for the White Sox.

 

It makes us slightly worse next year most likely in the lineup (Sanchez becomes your full time 2b, have to go sign a utility infielder just to back up Gillaspie), which is even worse in a way than Trading Anderson since trading for Samardzija is such an "all in on 2015" move.

I think johnson is your leader for the second base job even if nothing else happens with the other player.

[Chisoxfn]

Marcus Semien for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija continues to make no sense for the White Sox.

 

It makes us slightly worse next year most likely in the lineup (Sanchez becomes your full time 2b, have to go sign a utility infielder just to back up Gillaspie), which is even worse in a way than Trading Anderson since trading for Samardzija is such an "all in on 2015" move.

I am sorry but this post is just an insane overvaluation of Marcus Semien, who I happen to like. If we could get Semiene for a yr of Shark, I would do it every day and twice on Sunday because at the deadline, there is a high likelihood if we were out of contention I could sell him for far better talent than Marcus Semien. Plus, I fully expect the Sox to make a significant run at resigning Shark if we were to trade for him. Trading Tim Anderson with no intention of signing Shark to an extension, would be something I would have an issue with. Anderson has a chance to be a special player, Semien does not. You also can't view this in a vacuum, if you trade Semien for Shark, why do you just assume we go with Carlos Sanchez vs. looking at outside options (either via FA or trade)?

 

PS: I think it is just as likely that Johnson starts at 2B anyway so now we are trading a utility guy for an above average major league starter.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Semien and one of Beck or Bassitt gets it done for 1 year of Shark. And I'd be OK with that. I like Semien, I think he's likely to be much better than we saw of him in the majors, but him plus one of those other two is what gets it done. I'd prefer it be Beck (as opposed to Bassitt).

 

[Princess Dye]

I am fully willing to take the risk of Marcus Semien being a run of the mill guy his whole career. There are risks you take in order to move forward as a team and Semien-for-Shark is not even something that I ...even...put in that category.

 

The plus side is you get Shark extended and it cost little. The down side is he just leaves after a year.

 

Playoffs: you just have to get in. Looking around the league we are as viable for a jump in wins as many others. The competition is not at its fiercest right now, if we're talking Upper Tier Teams. Have to know the full team in order to judge.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[southsider2k5]

Marcus Semien for 1 year of Jeff Samardzija continues to make no sense for the White Sox.

 

It makes us slightly worse next year most likely in the lineup (Sanchez becomes your full time 2b, have to go sign a utility infielder just to back up Gillaspie), which is even worse in a way than Trading Anderson since trading for Samardzija is such an "all in on 2015" move.

 

It makes a LOT better in the rotation, unless you believe in Chris Bassitt, or Andre Rienzo over JS. Even once Carlos Rodon is up, Hector Noesi is next in line.

[Kyyle23]

Gotta judge the offseason as a whole after it happens though. We dont know all our moves yet, so it's impossible to properly judge the (potential) Shark one. In proper context.

 

Exactly. This offseason isn't "traded Semien for Shark. The end". There is so much more going on here

[Balta1701]

I am sorry but this post is just an insane overvaluation of Marcus Semien, who I happen to like. If we could get Semiene for a yr of Shark, I would do it every day and twice on Sunday because at the deadline, there is a high likelihood if we were out of contention I could sell him for far better talent than Marcus Semien. Plus, I fully expect the Sox to make a significant run at resigning Shark if we were to trade for him. Trading Tim Anderson with no intention of signing Shark to an extension, would be something I would have an issue with. Anderson has a chance to be a special player, Semien does not. You also can't view this in a vacuum, if you trade Semien for Shark, why do you just assume we go with Carlos Sanchez vs. looking at outside options (either via FA or trade)?

 

PS: I think it is just as likely that Johnson starts at 2B anyway so now we are trading a utility guy for an above average major league starter.

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

[Princess Dye]

If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

 

The career pitch count is part of the allure of Shark. Shields has the highest # thrown ( i believe) of this offseason's top available guys.

[Kyyle23]

Balta, I honestly think you just don't like Samardzija. Your normally very good rationalization is looking like "I don't like ex Cubs ex Notre Dame players". You keep citing that this team is closer to a 75 win team as if 1. Shark doesn't make the rotation significantly better and 2. There is no other moves that will be made and the exact same team is going to be out there minus Semien and plus Shark. It is really kind of puzzling

[Chisoxfn]

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

You are the guy that said you wouldn't trade Semien for Shark. I just said that is insane logic and extreme over-valuing of the deal. I am okay trading Semien, Beck, Johnson, and others (not all in one package) for Shark. I don't want to trade Anderson and I'm also okay with a package centered around Alexei. I also think we plan on signing him long term and I'm okay with that based upon the dollar figures I've seen thrown around (which is a 5 year deal

 

If I was given the choice of Shark for a little less than 100M or Shields (and the loss of the pick) for the same price (bug we get to keep Semien), I'm taking Shark 100 out of 100 times and I think pretty much every executive in baseball would too. No slight on Semien here. But I think Beane would hang up the phone if that was the Sox best offer.

[Rowand44]

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

If the Sox trade for Shark they do plan on being competitive this year, you keep skipping that fact. Not only would they add a top of the rotation starter but the low cost of Samardzija's contract this year leaves them extra money to fill other holes.

[Chisoxfn]

It makes a LOT better in the rotation, unless you believe in Chris Bassitt, or Andre Rienzo over JS. Even once Carlos Rodon is up, Hector Noesi is next in line.

That front three of the rotation is as good as any team in baseball.

[Balta1701]

If the Sox trade for Shark they do plan on being competitive this year, you keep skipping that fact. Not only would they add a top of the rotation starter but the low cost of Samardzija's contract this year leaves them extra money to fill other holes.

I'd count that team as a $90 million team that I'd still put well below .500.

[Princess Dye]

Lying constantly in the background: we dont know how big the Abreu & Sale window is. Abreu, reason being, age. Sale -- we dont know if he is a genetic freak that can pitch like that and take a career long pounding on his arm (there are rare individuals like that, but we wont know til his career is over ...if he.......was one)

 

So with a set window right now for success, and several nice bargain contracts (Quintana, Eaton) the time is now to spend and take your shot. You just wait and wait and suddenly you dont even realize you missed a serious, clear shot at it.

 

If we're not ready then why the heck did we sign LaRoche? Or for that matter, Abreu?? If we were chasing the top pick in the draft and a full rebuild, we had other ways of going about it. But we chose to pursue wins based on a few recent moves, and now we have to make the pursuit worth it. That means adding a few pitchers and a OF.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[Balta1701]

But I think Beane would hang up the phone if that was the Sox best offer.

Like I said, the only way this deal proposal makes sense for the Whtie Sox is if for some reason Billy Beane accepts a "he should have hung up the phone" offer, and even then it's still confusing.

[Chisoxfn]

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

PS: I just saw the insaneness of the 2nd part of your post. Why trade for Shark and sign him now, when you could wait a year and sign him as a FA? Well, one, we are playing and designing a plan to be a contending team this year (and a top 3 of Sale / Q / Shark is as good as any in baseball) and two, that price of an extension might be significantly more expensive with Shark on the open market vs. shark today. You have far more teams competing for him, etc. I will continue to say that your style / approach is to only have guys who are more valuable then their contract, never anything less, and under your scenario's, we either give at bats to guys who are young and may or may not have talent (as you don't know unless you give them like 3 years worth of at bats given your general approach to patience) and surround that with guys who you sign to one year deals coming off lousy previous years but with good stuff...who may or may not rebound...you will hit on a few, fail on others, and continuously be a horrific ball club.

 

Edit: Okay I give, we might not be horrific, but we will never win a world series / be a consistent contender with that approach.

[witesoxfan]

You are the guy that said you wouldn't trade Semien for Shark. I just said that is insane logic and extreme over-valuing of the deal. I am okay trading Semien, Beck, Johnson, and others (not all in one package) for Shark. I don't want to trade Anderson and I'm also okay with a package centered around Alexei. I also think we plan on signing him long term and I'm okay with that based upon the dollar figures I've seen thrown around (which is a 5 year deal

 

If I was given the choice of Shark for a little less than 100M or Shields (and the loss of the pick) for the same price (bug we get to keep Semien), I'm taking Shark 100 out of 100 times and I think pretty much every executive in baseball would too. No slight on Semien here. But I think Beane would hang up the phone if that was the Sox best offer.

 

Ultimately I probably would trade Semien for Samardzija, but I'd try and take about every avenue possible to avoid it.

[Chisoxfn]

Like I said, the only way this deal proposal makes sense for the Whtie Sox is if for some reason Billy Beane accepts a "he should have hung up the phone" offer, and even then it's still confusing.

Except you seem to think a Semien for Shark offer is absurd for the Sox and I am telling you that is a hang-up the phone type offer for Beane.

[Princess Dye]

I'd count that team as a $90 million team that I'd still put well below .500.

 

Sale, Shark, Quintana and potentially Rodon puts you in any playoff series with some confidence. But the question is getting there. Yes. The holes are LF, 2B, starter, reliever.

 

That's what we're looking at fixing. This offseason. And 2b is a place where we have organizational depth.

 

Things like Flowers,Avi's defense,Conor's defense...those are holes that just will kind of remain being holes. You hope some of that gets struck by the good luck wand. But we're moving towards win-now, those warts aside. The win-now team that has no warts, and zero need for luck.........well, look around and show em to me. A lot are in our boat.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[cabiness42]

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

 

How many of the 28 other teams are interested in a pitcher one year away from free agency? The same reason we don't want to give up a lot for him applies to the other teams as well. Nobody is offering an elite prospect to Oakland.

 

EDIT: In fact, other teams may be offering less than the Sox because the Sox have a better chance of actually keeping him after one year.

Edited December 8, 2014 by HickoryHuskers

[ptatc]

So basically trading for Samardzija makes sense if Billy Beane forgets to call 28 other teams and gives him to us for a huge discount.

 

If you "fully expect the white sox to make a run at signing him to an extension", why on Earth would you give up anything in a trade for that guy unless you have a competitive roster this year? Again hitting my point, this makes no sense. If were going to blow 9 figures on a pitcher, just go add Shields.

Shields is not the pitcher that JS is. Having him at the top of the rotation makes the Sox a much better team. I like shields but he will command too many years at his age. If the sox could get shields on a 3 year deal, i would agree with you.

[Chisoxfn]

Ultimately I probably would trade Semien for Samardzija, but I'd try and take about every avenue possible to avoid it.

On the long list of players I won't trade, Semien is far from the top, as is Micah Johnson. Why...because we have two of them, plus Saladino and Sanchez. All four of these guys have flaws in their game and none of them, with the possible exception of Johnson (because I overrate speed) has a chance of being a total impact maker at their position. I think all of them have somewhat of a chance of being a league average player at one of the least important / impactful positions in the game.

 

And we are literally saying we won't trade that person for a starting pitcher, one who might be overrated by some, but with low mileage, plus stuff, and who has been taking positive steps forward the past couple years and a guy that I could project to be better 3 years from now vs. now (when he is already above league average and would, on our team, be arguably, the best 3rd starter in baseball). Come on now.