Max Scherzer

[Kyyle23]

With all these threads about signing Scherzer and trading Danks, how about a thread about me sleeping with Kate Upton? Has the same chance of happening.

 

We had to close the fappening thread. It was appalling

[LittleHurt05]

Or more recently, the Dodgers and Tigers.

 

The Tigers have made 4 straight playoff appearances, I'd be down with that for the Sox, that's more than the last 20 years.

[BigHurt3515]

How do you define the money being right?

The marginal benefit from another number 1 is less than the marginal benefit of using that money in places of real need. For example, a number 3 and a good LF would benefit the sox more than a number 1

 

It is tough to put a number on it really. $20 million a year would be ideal but is also not realistic for what Scherzer is wanting and what another team will pay for. Another pitcher is of real need. We can't compete with Noesi, Danks, and Bassit as our 3, 4, and 5 so getting another starter that is equal or better then Quintana is important IMO.

[Balta1701]

It is tough to put a number on it really. $20 million a year would be ideal but is also not realistic for what Scherzer is wanting and what another team will pay for. Another pitcher is of real need. We can't compete with Noesi, Danks, and Bassit as our 3, 4, and 5 so getting another starter that is equal or better then Quintana is important IMO.

There is at least a plausible way to make that work...if Noesi shows any growth this year that turns him into a solid #4, then the thing missing is a #3 starter. The question we have to ask then is whether we're going to try to buy a #3 starter which is James-Shields expensive, or we're going to try to piece together one out of Bassit + a FA + anyone else from the minors followed by a part season for Carlos Rodon.

 

OTOH, if Noesi and Danks show no improvement over last year, even if we bring in a #3 starter candidate, that could leave us with a pretty weak overall rotation despite spending a ton of money.

[2nd_city_saint787]

At some point I really think the Sox need to take advantage of the fact that their #1 and #2 are being paid like a #4 and #5 Then you eventually throw in Rodon to the mix and Noesi as a cheap 5 (assuming Danks is traded) and that rotation is not expensive at all.

 

After thinking more, I'm against it if Danks is still here, but I'm for it if he's gone.

 

Sale- 6M

Max- 25M

Q- 3.4M

Noesi- 1.9

Bassitt/Rodon- 500K

 

Total- 36.8M

 

Conversely the top 5...

 

Dodgers rotation- 78M

Phillies- 74M

Yankees-74M

Tigers- 73M

Giants- 65M

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by scs787

[Rowand44]

At some point I really think the Sox need to take advantage of the fact that their #1 and #2 are being paid like a #4 and #5 Then you eventually throw in Rodon to the mix and Noesi as a cheap 5 (assuming Danks is traded) and that rotation is not expensive at all.

 

After thinking more, I'm against it if Danks is still here, but I'm for it if he's gone.

 

Sale- 6M

Max- 25M

Q- 3.4M

Noesi- 1.9

Bassitt/Rodon- 500K

 

Total- 36.8M

I completely agree with you that at some point the Sox have to make a splash and hand out big money to someone to put them over the top. The problem with Scherzer wouldn't be the first year of the deal, we can definitely eat it right now, it's just down the line it's almost a guarantee it becomes a problem.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

How do you define the money being right?

The marginal benefit from another number 1 is less than the marginal benefit of using that money in places of real need. For example, a number 3 and a good LF would benefit the sox more than a number 1

I don't think that is the case. Having another ace pitcher helps you win games to an extent, regardless of who is in your lineup. Plus our lineup will still have guys like Abreu, etc. I think you can find good defenders for less and get away with not having big bats in certain spots in the lineup when you have great pitching.

[Chisoxfn]

At some point I really think the Sox need to take advantage of the fact that their #1 and #2 are being paid like a #4 and #5 Then you eventually throw in Rodon to the mix and Noesi as a cheap 5 (assuming Danks is traded) and that rotation is not expensive at all.

 

After thinking more, I'm against it if Danks is still here, but I'm for it if he's gone.

 

Sale- 6M

Max- 25M

Q- 3.4M

Noesi- 1.9

Bassitt/Rodon- 500K

 

Total- 36.8M

 

Conversely the top 5...

 

Dodgers rotation- 78M

Phillies- 74M

Yankees-74M

Tigers- 73M

Giants- 65M

This is my line of thought. Use what we have currently to try and turn this into a significant competitive advantage and also one which is a huge competitive advantage if you get into the post-season as well. A front three of Sale / Big FA / Q (if healthy) is as good as any front 3 in the game. A year from now it might even be better, depending on Rodon developing as well. It could provide you with 4 legit weapons, 3 of which are cost controlled and in the post-season you very much need 4 starters (top 3 being more important). Allows you to be cheap / more developmental with 5th spot too (Noesi or others could fit the bill there).

[Balta1701]

At some point I really think the Sox need to take advantage of the fact that their #1 and #2 are being paid like a #4 and #5 Then you eventually throw in Rodon to the mix and Noesi as a cheap 5 (assuming Danks is traded) and that rotation is not expensive at all.

 

After thinking more, I'm against it if Danks is still here, but I'm for it if he's gone.

 

Sale- 6M

Max- 25M

Q- 3.4M

Noesi- 1.9

Bassitt/Rodon- 500K

 

Total- 36.8M

 

Conversely the top 5...

 

Dodgers rotation- 78M

Phillies- 74M

Yankees-74M

Tigers- 73M

Giants- 65M

I'm not quite confident enough in Bassitt to set up a rotation competition between him and Rodon out of the spring. Maybe the team is willing to do it, but he's a guy who has 1/2 a season above A ball and a lot of injury issues last year.

 

Maybe the team really loves what he's done this year, maybe they also have more confidence in someone like Beck contributing this year, and that would leave them willing to do it, but that rotation as written really does look like it has a role for a guy on a 1 year, value rebuilding contract. Masterson, Johnson, the guy from Oakland, someone to fill that gap out of the spring and give some innings until Rodon is ready seems like such a good fit.

[Balta1701]

I don't think that is the case. Having another ace pitcher helps you win games to an extent, regardless of who is in your lineup. Plus our lineup will still have guys like Abreu, etc. I think you can find good defenders for less and get away with not having big bats in certain spots in the lineup when you have great pitching.

If you can suggest an available, good defensive corner OF, I'm listening for names?

[Rowand44]

If you can suggest an available, good defensive corner OF, I'm listening for names?

Ichiro? Not sure if his defense has taken a dive the last few years but if it hasn't and we're going all in, he might be the perfect one year fit as was semi suggested on the site yesterday.

[caulfield12]

Can only go by the two Sox examples where shedding payroll before 2005 and spreading it out over 7-8 guys (plus Garcia and Contreras the prior year)...as well as bringing in Ramirez/Quentin/Floyd/Danks in 2007/08 led to a single-season turnaround.

 

I'm 98% sure the Tigers and Royals are going to try to win next year without Scherzer and Shields, so we'll have an experiment in the AL Central to see how well they cover those losses.

 

You can argue that the "superstar" route hasn't worked at all for the Yankees or the Angels, although in fairness the main players they've acquired (CJ Wilson, Hamilton, Pujols) have been aging vets whereas Trout, Richards and Weaver (to a lesser extent) are/were younger. The Dodgers are loaded with superstars but have folded when pressured by the Cardinals or Giants in recent years.

 

What the Orioles have done is one of the better models for the Sox...developing Gausman, Tillman and Britton (granted it's a bullpen role), moving Arrieta (perhaps prematurely), but covering the difference in free agents/waiver pick-ups/savvy trades like Chen, Nelson Cruz, Pearce, JJ Hardy (worst trade in recent Minny history), etc. It was pretty amazing they lost Wieters, Machado and Chris Davis and still didn't really miss a beat.

Edited November 11, 2014 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Ichiro? Not sure if his defense has taken a dive the last few years but if it hasn't and we're going all in, he might be the perfect one year fit as was semi suggested on the site yesterday.

Both fangrapsh and B-R have him being a below average fielder the last several years. B-R thought he had a decent 2013 defensively but otherwise they've had him as a negative defender since his late years in Seattle. Fangrapsh has him being ok in 2012-2013 but below average in 2014 and 2011 and certainly not a strong plus fielder like he was in his early years.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm not quite confident enough in Bassitt to set up a rotation competition between him and Rodon out of the spring. Maybe the team is willing to do it, but he's a guy who has 1/2 a season above A ball and a lot of injury issues last year.

 

Maybe the team really loves what he's done this year, maybe they also have more confidence in someone like Beck contributing this year, and that would leave them willing to do it, but that rotation as written really does look like it has a role for a guy on a 1 year, value rebuilding contract. Masterson, Johnson, the guy from Oakland, someone to fill that gap out of the spring and give some innings until Rodon is ready seems like such a good fit.

 

I know it's only one comparison, but the Sox have shown with Q (who had 48 innings above A vs Bassitts 82) that they're not afraid to do something like that.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2014 by scs787

[BlackSox13]

Lmao. Scherzer turned down 6/144 which is 24M annually. Do people really think Scherzer went to FA just to collect just 1M more annually? He isnt signing for 25M annually. Come on, be reasonable people!

[southsider2k5]

Lmao. Scherzer turned down 6/144 which is 24M annually. Do people really think Scherzer went to FA just to collect just 1M more annually? He isnt signing for 25M annually. Come on, be reasonable people!

 

I think the bigger difference will be in years, with his deal going to 7 or 8 years.

 

[BlackSox13]

I think the bigger difference will be in years, with his deal going to 7 or 8 years.

Is any team crazy enough to offer a 30 year old 7-8 years? Even the Yankees aren't that dumb.

[Chisoxfn]

If you can suggest an available, good defensive corner OF, I'm listening for names?

My presumption is you could trade for a Jackie Bradley, who Boston has soured on. Also depends on what the view is of best statistics for defensive players. For example, if you focus on UZR, Bradley, Markakis, Aoki all rank very highly amongst outfielders. They don't necessarily all rank highly from a DWAR perspective. Dustin Ackley might be easily available.

 

Again, I'm focusing on defense here and not saying that all of these players are there. Maybe you have that guy on your current roster in Jordan Danks (not sure how he'd grade out defensively over a full season).

[southsider2k5]

Is any team crazy enough to offer a 30 year old 7-8 years? Even the Yankees aren't that dumb.

 

Someone will offer 7 years, I have no doubt about that. 8 wouldn't shock me.

 

Top free agents get stupid contracts. It happens every year.

[Lillian]

Here is a surprising statistic, which might change one's perspective:

 

Quality starts in 2014:

Max Scherzer 21 out of 33 starts.

John Danks 20 out of 32 starts.

 

That was using the old formula, which is 6 or more innings, 3 earned runs, or less.

 

And we are considering giving Scherzer $25 Million for 6 years, while we are all desperate to unload Danks, and his contract.

 

Very interesting!!

[shysocks]

Is any team crazy enough to offer a 30 year old 7-8 years? Even the Yankees aren't that dumb.

Cano got a 10-year deal starting with his age 31 season. If you want pitchers, Cliff Lee signed a five year deal at age 32. Forgot the details of when Verlander's extension officially kicks in, but he'll be 37 when it ends.

[BlackSox13]

Someone will offer 7 years, I have no doubt about that. 8 wouldn't shock me.

 

Top free agents get stupid contracts. It happens every year.

Good grief that's crazy but you're right, it does happen every year. Perhaps Boston?

[Lillian]

My presumption is you could trade for a Jackie Bradley, who Boston has soured on. Also depends on what the view is of best statistics for defensive players. For example, if you focus on UZR, Bradley, Markakis, Aoki all rank very highly amongst outfielders. They don't necessarily all rank highly from a DWAR perspective. Dustin Ackley might be easily available.

 

Again, I'm focusing on defense here and not saying that all of these players are there. Maybe you have that guy on your current roster in Jordan Danks (not sure how he'd grade out defensively over a full season).

 

Danks is probably still regarded as the best defensive outfielder in the organization.

[BlackSox13]

Cano got a 10-year deal starting with his age 31 season. If you want pitchers, Cliff Lee signed a five year deal at age 32. Forgot the details of when Verlander's extension officially kicks in, but he'll be 37 when it ends.

I guess it does happen...

 

I'm glad the Sox are smarter than that.

[Balta1701]

My presumption is you could trade for a Jackie Bradley, who Boston has soured on. Also depends on what the view is of best statistics for defensive players. For example, if you focus on UZR, Bradley, Markakis, Aoki all rank very highly amongst outfielders. They don't necessarily all rank highly from a DWAR perspective. Dustin Ackley might be easily available.

 

Again, I'm focusing on defense here and not saying that all of these players are there. Maybe you have that guy on your current roster in Jordan Danks (not sure how he'd grade out defensively over a full season).

I don't know what UZR you're looking at but the one I'm looking at does not show that. Aoki was a below average fielder his first 2 years and a barely average fielder last year - he'd only be an upgrade since Viciedo was so bad. Nick Markakis has been bad to terrible on defense for the last 6 years according to UZR.