Max Scherzer

[Chisoxfn]

I don't know what UZR you're looking at but the one I'm looking at does not show that. Aoki was a below average fielder his first 2 years and a barely average fielder last year - he'd only be an upgrade since Viciedo was so bad. Nick Markakis has been bad to terrible on defense for the last 6 years according to UZR.

I just did a search under fangraphs. I was surprised to see him and Markakis there. Maybe I had a bad filter, I don't know, but it made sense given that Gordon and Heyward were amongst the top outfielders along with Billy Hamilton. It was in the advanced stats. I hadn't given it much thought so I just cherry picked based upon the list following that stat (so I'm not saying it is an end all be all) but my point is it is a lot easier to find and be able to get a potential good defensive player then a good hitter, imo, especially when you are talking outfield.

 

Link

[southsider2k5]

Cano got a 10-year deal starting with his age 31 season. If you want pitchers, Cliff Lee signed a five year deal at age 32. Forgot the details of when Verlander's extension officially kicks in, but he'll be 37 when it ends.

 

Pujols and his 10 year deal

ARod and his 2, 10 year deals

Kevin Brown was 30 or 31 when he signed his 7 year deal years ago.

Jeter got a 10 year deal, then another 3 years after that

Barry Zito got a 7 year deal

Todd Helton got 11 years

Miguel Cabrera's 10 year deal

Alfonzo Soriano's 7year deal

 

Just keep going...

[shysocks]

Here is a surprising statistic, which might change one's perspective:

 

Quality starts in 2014:

Max Scherzer 21 out of 33 starts.

John Danks 20 out of 32 starts.

 

That was using the old formula, which is 6 or more innings, 3 earned runs, or less.

 

And we are considering giving Scherzer $25 Million for 6 years, while we are all desperate to unload Danks, and his contract.

 

Very interesting!!

Scherzer in quality starts: 1.46 ERA, average 7 IP

Scherzer in non-QS: 7.02 ERA, average 6 IP

 

Danks in quality starts: 2.48 ERA, average 6.2 IP

Danks in non-QS: 9.43 ERA, 5.1 IP

 

Scherzer is a much better pitcher.

[LDF]

 

in all things being equal, if the sox sign a #1 type of pitcher, and the

rest of the deals that may be done. I for one believe that result

will be in a huge increase will be on the sell of season tickets.

 

the immediate results will be seen. maybe not by us the fans but

at the ticket sales. from there everything will trickle down. it will

a bonus day for the sox esp in the financial sense. they will be a

hot ticket again.

[Eminor3rd]

This contract never works out.

[Thad Bosley]

The White Sox will not knowingly commit to losing money, that's why.

That is such a dated view of the White Sox spending policy! Why, just yesterday, Rick Hahn was quoted as saying "We aren't going to be precluded from any single player because of running up against the limits of our payroll." He went on to describe that while chasing certain high-priced players in the past was not realistic, it isn't necessarily going to be the case this year. In fact, what I find particularly refreshing is that also unlike in years past, with all of that talk we used to hear about the Sox "flying under the radar" and what not, this year Hahn is openly welcoming and seemingly enjoying the Sox being associated with rumors about their interest in some big ticket items.

 

I don't know exactly what's going on this offseason, but it feels different, and in an exciting sort of way, and I like it. While the team won't go too overboard crazy in spending, I also don't get the feeling they're going to be wed to some smallish total payroll number like $90M.

[Eminor3rd]

Here is a surprising statistic, which might change one's perspective:

 

Quality starts in 2014:

Max Scherzer 21 out of 33 starts.

John Danks 20 out of 32 starts.

 

That was using the old formula, which is 6 or more innings, 3 earned runs, or less.

 

And we are considering giving Scherzer $25 Million for 6 years, while we are all desperate to unload Danks, and his contract.

 

Very interesting!!

 

Lol

[dpd9189]

I just don't see the Sox signing Scherzer for $170-$200 mil. Save that money for Sale's eventual extension which will most likely be in the $100 mil plus if he keeps on pitching the way he's been pitching.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just don't see the Sox signing Scherzer for $170-$200 mil. Save that money for Sale's eventual extension which will most likely be in the $100 mil plus if he keeps on pitching the way he's been pitching.

 

He doesn't have to sign an extension until what, 2019?

[southsider2k5]

That is such a dated view of the White Sox spending policy! Why, just yesterday, Rick Hahn was quoted as saying "We aren't going to be precluded from any single player because of running up against the limits of our payroll." He went on to describe that while chasing certain high-priced players in the past was not realistic, it isn't necessarily going to be the case this year. In fact, what I find particularly refreshing is that also unlike in years past, with all of that talk we used to hear about the Sox "flying under the radar" and what not, this year Hahn is openly welcoming and seemingly enjoying the Sox being associated with rumors about their interest in some big ticket items.

 

I don't know exactly what's going on this offseason, but it feels different, and in an exciting sort of way, and I like it. While the team won't go too overboard crazy in spending, I also don't get the feeling they're going to be wed to some smallish total payroll number like $90M.

 

It isn't a dated view until they do something to prove it wrong. The Sox always, and I mean always, go into a season not expecting to lose money.

[Thad Bosley]

It isn't a dated view until they do something to prove it wrong. The Sox always, and I mean always, go into a season not expecting to lose money.

I was just kidding about the dated view part, and won't believe it 'til I see a change as well. But I wasn't kidding about noticing the change in attitude and the way they seem to be talking about things right now. And how nice is it to not be talking about not being able to spend a dollar when you only have 50 cents, or how Kenny Williams is scrambling to find loose change in between couch cushions. Good heavens, that line of speak gets old real fast. But so far this offseason it seems somewhat refreshingly different, and I'm expecting some big and exciting news before it's all over and done with.

[southsider2k5]

I was just kidding about the dated view part, and won't believe it 'til I see a change as well. But I wasn't kidding about noticing the change in attitude and the way they seem to be talking about things right now. And how nice is it to not be talking about not being able to spend a dollar when you only have 50 cents, or how Kenny Williams is scrambling to find loose change in between couch cushions. Good heavens, that line of speak gets old real fast. But so far this offseason it seems somewhat refreshingly different, and I'm expecting some big and exciting news before it's all over and done with.

 

It is also the truth. The White Sox actually have big payroll room for the first time that I can remember. I can't tell you the last time the White Sox had something like $30 million to spend.

[Lillian]

Scherzer in quality starts: 1.46 ERA, average 7 IP

Scherzer in non-QS: 7.02 ERA, average 6 IP

 

Danks in quality starts: 2.48 ERA, average 6.2 IP

Danks in non-QS: 9.43 ERA, 5.1 IP

 

Scherzer is a much better pitcher.

 

Of course he is!! I wan't arguing that he wasn't. Just some interesting observations. I also didn't mention that Comerica is an easier place to pitch.

Thank you for taking the time to do the statistical calculations on the respective ERA's for both pitchers, in the various circumstances.

 

[caulfield12]

I just did a search under fangraphs. I was surprised to see him and Markakis there. Maybe I had a bad filter, I don't know, but it made sense given that Gordon and Heyward were amongst the top outfielders along with Billy Hamilton. It was in the advanced stats. I hadn't given it much thought so I just cherry picked based upon the list following that stat (so I'm not saying it is an end all be all) but my point is it is a lot easier to find and be able to get a potential good defensive player then a good hitter, imo, especially when you are talking outfield.

 

Link

 

 

Didn't Markakis win a Gold Glove or at least finish in the top 3?

 

Seems to be some disconnect between UZR/DRS and the proverbial "eye test."

 

(Waiting for Derek Jeter mention...in 3, 2, 1)

[Chicago White Sox]

It is also the truth. The White Sox actually have big payroll room for the first time that I can remember. I can't tell you the last time the White Sox had something like $30 million to spend.

Multiple reports in the past couple days have said we'll have $40M to spend and I could see it being a little higher than that. While I fully expect a payroll right around $100M if all goes well in free agency, it's not that crazy to think they could go up to $110M if they hit on all their targets. You have to invest in your business to grow it, so if the Sox want to increase attendance and ultimately revenues, they need to commit to winning by spending big up front.

[caulfield12]

Multiple reports in the past couple days have said we'll have $40M to spend and I could see it being a little higher than that. While I fully expect a payroll right around $100M if all goes well in free agency, it's not that crazy to think they could go up to $110M if they hit on all their targets. You have to invest in your business to grow it, so if the Sox want to increase attendance and ultimately revenues, they need to commit to winning by spending big up front.

 

 

 

If there was a poll, will the White Sox ACTUALLY spend/add:

 

 

 

$20-25 million to 2015 payroll

 

$25-35 million

 

$35 million +

 

 

I would bet that 60-65% of SoxTalk posters would go with the 2nd choice. And there would probably be more "old/er" Sox fans betting on the lower number rather than the higher number.

 

Until they actually go out and do it, there will be a plethora of "Doubting Thomases."

 

 

One thing that would be annoying is if the Cubs add Lester, Zimmerman and Martin and the White Sox responded with one big signing from a PR perspective in order to sell tickets but not really it being in the best long-term interest of the team, like overpaying for Victor Martinez. Hopefully Hahn's too smart for that, although the pressure is being turned up a bit with Maddon also in town. It's going to be increasingly difficult not to compare the two Chicago managers.

Edited November 12, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Everyone knows the Sox are aiming for a true playoff team in 2016. If they're going to ratchet up the payroll via FA they are going to both this year AND next year. This year you have a handful of #1/#2 type starting pitchers and a handful of middle of the order bats. Next year you have a handful of #1/2 types (Cueto, Latos, Fister, Zimmerman, Price and more) and Jason Heyward. There is nothing on the offensive side for free agents next year unless you're the team to give Heyward 200+ million. With that in mind, I'd guess we get one big bat and a few supplementary pieces in FA this year. Then next year, if everything goes right and there is still a need, the team could look at a Latos/Fister/Cueto type to split up Sale/Quintana/Rodon. Regardless, it's not the Sox MO to handout big contracts to pitchers and rightfully so.

 

 

It would be their style, on the other hand, to look at Volquez, Masterson, Colby Lewis, Franklin Morales, Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd and Josh Johnson.

 

I'll believe it when I see it, in terms of signing someone like Erwin Santana for $3/36 or 4/$44, etc. Not with Danks' contract still on the books.

Edited November 12, 2014 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Multiple reports in the past couple days have said we'll have $40M to spend and I could see it being a little higher than that. While I fully expect a payroll right around $100M if all goes well in free agency, it's not that crazy to think they could go up to $110M if they hit on all their targets. You have to invest in your business to grow it, so if the Sox want to increase attendance and ultimately revenues, they need to commit to winning by spending big up front.

 

based on some sort of statistical formula, the sox have spent what they

can so they won't loose money. I remember how KW said it was based

on the fans coming to the games. more fans, more money more investment

in players in fa.

[LDF]

If there was a poll, will the White Sox ACTUALLY spend/add:

 

 

 

$20-25 million to 2015 payroll

 

$25-35 million

 

$35 million +

 

 

I would bet that 60-65% of SoxTalk posters would go with the 2nd choice. And there would probably be more "old/er" Sox fans betting on the lower number rather than the higher number.

 

Until they actually go out and do it, there will be a plethora of "Doubting Thomases."

 

 

One thing that would be annoying is if the Cubs add Lester, Zimmerman and Martin and the White Sox responded with one big signing from a PR perspective in order to sell tickets but not really it being in the best long-term interest of the team, like overpaying for Victor Martinez. Hopefully Hahn's too smart for that, although the pressure is being turned up a bit with Maddon also in town. It's going to be increasingly difficult not to compare the two Chicago managers.

 

me #3 option. I think the sox will go almost all in to put a real good team

on the field.

[gosox41]

Surprised there isn't a thread about him yet. Surprisingly, the Sox have been linked to Scherzer by Hayes and Heyman so far as a dark horse to sign him.

 

The money and years he is going to command is definitely scary, and I really hope the Sox don't sign him to a long lucrative contract.

 

What are your guys thoughts on Scherzer?

 

 

This rumor is funny because anyone who knows anything about the White Sox knows it's not true. And I agree 100% with the Sox NOT signing him unless he wants a 3 year or less contract.

 

 

Bob

[The Ginger Kid]

I bet he's already getting fitted for a Cardinals jersey. But yeah, he'd be great to have. He'd make the Sox a force.

[Lillian]

Just to clarify my thoughts: I am not in favor of signing any pitcher to a 7, or 8 year deal, maybe not even 6 years.

They are simply to fragile. Now, if there were a reincarnated Hoyt Wilhelm or Wilbur Wood, out there, I might reconsider.

It's unbelievable. These modern day pitchers are only asked to throw 100 pitches, every 5 days, and they can't stay healthy.

 

[Dick Allen]

Isn't his agent Boras? Another reason to think there is. 99.999999% chance he signs with another team.

[Lillian]

Isn't his agent Boras? Another reason to think there is. 99.999999% chance he signs with another team.

 

Boras is indeed his agent.

[southsider2k5]

Multiple reports in the past couple days have said we'll have $40M to spend and I could see it being a little higher than that. While I fully expect a payroll right around $100M if all goes well in free agency, it's not that crazy to think they could go up to $110M if they hit on all their targets. You have to invest in your business to grow it, so if the Sox want to increase attendance and ultimately revenues, they need to commit to winning by spending big up front.

 

lol. This isn't Finance 101. This is an established business with a long history of doing the same thing over and over again. The next time they go into the season with an expected loss will be the first one.