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Andrew Miller signs with Yankees


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QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 09:24 PM)
Not arguably, Scott Downs most definitely had a better track record than Miller. I'd much rather sign Joe Thatcher and target a LH reliever with potential. Anyone could have had Miller a few years ago. Anyone could have had Matt Thornton after 2005. I know it's much easier said than done but I'd rather take the safer. cheaper option and search for some potential. I am not paying 8-10 AAV over a 3-4 year span for a guy who's second best season BB/9, in any sample size, is 4.5 BB/9. I've seen him pitch and he's absolutely filthy but I'd much prefer the Cubs/Tigers wasting their resources than our Sox who cannot absorb these types of mistakes.

 

That's what they tried to deal with Veal, and it worked well in 2012 and then fell apart.

 

Cleto, Guerra, Putnam, Petricka, Paulino, Boggs (that was a surprise), Henry Rodriguez, De La Rosa, etc., last season.

 

 

On the plus side, they got three serviceable relievers in Guerra, Putnam and Petricka out of last season's bullpen experimentation.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 10:24 PM)
Not arguably, Scott Downs most definitely had a better track record than Miller. I'd much rather sign Joe Thatcher and target a LH reliever with potential. Anyone could have had Miller a few years ago. Anyone could have had Matt Thornton after 2005. I know it's much easier said than done but I'd rather take the safer. cheaper option and search for some potential. I am not paying 8-10 AAV over a 3-4 year span for a guy who's second best season BB/9, in any sample size, is 4.5 BB/9. I've seen him pitch and he's absolutely filthy but I'd much prefer the Cubs/Tigers wasting their resources than our Sox who cannot absorb these types of mistakes.

But if you could have gotten Matt Thornton in 2009 on a 3 year deal, even if you paid him a ton you got your moneys worth.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 08:59 PM)
Let's make a LHRP the third highest paid player on the team? I hope we get outbid. 2014 was the only year this guy had any semblance of control.

My thoughts exactly. Miller is a perfect illustration of the unpredictability of relief pitching.

 

There is an available left-handed reliever who will have a better 2015 than Miller for a quarter the price. Just find who it is and get him. But don't pay top dollar for Miller.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 09:53 AM)
My thoughts exactly. Miller is a perfect illustration of the unpredictability of relief pitching.

 

There is an available left-handed reliever who will have a better 2015 than Miller for a quarter the price. Just find who it is and get him. But don't pay top dollar for Miller.

Did any left handed relievers have a better 2014 than Miller?

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 08:53 AM)
My thoughts exactly. Miller is a perfect illustration of the unpredictability of relief pitching.

 

There is an available left-handed reliever who will have a better 2015 than Miller for a quarter the price. Just find who it is and get him. But don't pay top dollar for Miller.

Any idea what Miller is projected to make annually?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 08:54 AM)
Did any left handed relievers have a better 2014 than Miller?

If you go by fWAR he was the 4th behind Aroldis Chapman, Jake McGee, and Sean Doolittle. None of them are available.

 

He had a really good season and I'm not even trying to debate that. That doesn't change the fact that guys in his line of work fluctuate from dominant to mediocre and back all the time.

 

The top 10 relievers by WAR in 2013 combined for 23.7; in 2014 those ten players combined for 11.9.

 

The top 20 relievers in 2013 combined for 39.9; in 2014 the same guys had 22.9. The only four of that group who did not have a worse 2014 were Kimbrel, Doolittle, David Robertson, and Chapman.

 

Of the top 20 relievers in 2014, 13 did not appear in the top 20 in 2013.

 

I know that WAR isn't the ideal stat to use here but I think it gets my point across just fine. There's a good chance Miller will be fine next year. There's an equally good chance that somebody else is a better investment.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 01:16 PM)
I am not sure what your point is. Thornton has been one of the most consistent LH bullpen options in baseball over the last 8-10 years. He's closer to an aberration than the rule of thumb.

So tell me why Andrew Miller, with the run he's currently on, can't be/isn't one of those guys? If you can convince me he isn't using something other than "bullpens are unreliable" I'll sour on going after him, but for the last 3 years he's been very reliable.

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The Sox are starting to get the Cubs treatment in the media. Everyone knows they have money to spend, so agents are leaking interest everywhere. Through the media, the Sox have already been linked to Martinez/Sherzer/Panda/Miller. No way this is coming from the front office, unless they are looking to dethrone Theo of his participation trophy.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 12:18 PM)
So tell me why Andrew Miller, with the run he's currently on, can't be/isn't one of those guys? If you can convince me he isn't using something other than "bullpens are unreliable" I'll sour on going after him, but for the last 3 years he's been very reliable.

 

Reliable is one way to put it. You don't have to go back far to call it a bit lucky. In 2013 he had a whip of 1.4 and a BB/9 of 5! I'm not paying a non closing reliever $8mm per, only a year removed from those scary numbers. He has always greatly struggled with control. 2014 is the outlier.

 

He is a luxury for a team putting together the final pieces. Use that money to fill a hole at an every day position, or at least in the rotation.

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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 01:53 PM)
I like it plus I would look at Cotts too

Cotts is a guy who would make sense if they really like Snodgress as a potential bullpen lefty. He throws hard, he's been worked as a starter and done well enough in that role, he had a really good fastball in college and IIRC threw out of the bullpen there somewhat, but he's not quite big league ready yet.

 

I already like Surkamp as a lefty, he had a really good run during his 2nd stretch with the big league team last year and should have a good shot at one of those spots, Cotts could be a decent bridge until the minors can generate another lefty if they really believe in the 2 they have.

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QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 02:43 PM)
man I keep on coming back to this post. I biggest burning question is

at what salary will it take to sign him.

 

Boston papers said minimum $40 mil for 5 years so I am guessing $10 Mil per year when bidding ends

 

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