Kiley McDaniel / Fangraphs Top ChiSox Prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

Read this.

 

[witesoxfan]

This is just awesome, awesome, awesome stuff. Every fan who has more than fairweather interest in the White Sox franchise and the direction it's headed needs to take time to read this because it's seriously that good.

[shysocks]

I read this whole thing as soon as I saw the link tweeted out and it was great. As somebody who knows most of the names in the system and their positions but little else beyond a stat sheet, I found it especially helpful as an all-encompassing primer.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I love that Fangraphs hired Kiley McDaniel. He does such a great job. I was actually excited to read his write-ups of other teams' prospects so you could imagine how happy I was today haha.

[NorthSideSox72]

Ha! I just noticed that at least two of the videos they linked to, are ours. Nice.

 

[witesoxfan]

Ha! I just noticed that at least two of the videos they linked to, are ours. Nice.

 

I think commenting on the article would be awesome. Basically saying "you're welcome for the videos" in a very nice way to get a plug out there.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think commenting on the article would be awesome. Basically saying "you're welcome for the videos" in a very nice way to get a plug out there.

Well they link to it, and it does say FutureSox right there when it opens. So they didn't steal it or anything. But I guess I could do that for fun, haha.

 

[witesoxfan]

Well they link to it, and it does say FutureSox right there when it opens. So they didn't steal it or anything. But I guess I could do that for fun, haha.

 

Right, and that's exactly what it would be. There's obviously no reason to be angry or anything, we publish the videos on YouTube so people can access them for free.

[BlackSox13]

Read this.

Thank you very much, I really enjoyed this. The videos were great and so was the writing.

[NorthSideSox72]

Right, and that's exactly what it would be. There's obviously no reason to be angry or anything, we publish the videos on YouTube so people can access them for free.

Deed is done. Complimented the piece (because it is pretty great), asked a prospect question, then put in a "P.S." at the end about the vids.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I've been salivating for this day.

[LDF]

 

I read the article. great and in depth article.

 

a couple of surprise there esp on Thompson. I am glad. I like the little

jab of Adam Engel for his habit of tweaking his batting.

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

So he's lower than most of us on Ravelo and Micah, and VERY low on Bassitt.

 

Numbered summary:

 

1. Rodon

2. Anderson

3. Montas

4. Adams

5. Danish

 

BREAK

 

6. Michaelczewski

7. Johnson

8. Hawkins

9. Adolfo

10. Thompson

11. Davidson

12. May

 

BREAK

 

13. Sanchez

14. Sanburn

15. Beck

16. Barnum

17. Ravelo

18. Snodgress

19. Fry

20. Saladino

21. Engel

22. Trexler

 

Notable Mentions: Basto, Wilkins, Rondon, Austin, Bassitt, Nieto

Edited November 13, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

So he's lower than most of us on Ravelo, and VERY low on Bassitt.

 

See, what I wonder is how much of this is the scout's lack of exposure to the player. There are contradicting reports on Ravelo through McDaniel and Stoltz on FGs alone, where I would guess that Stoltz believes Ravelo's raw power is closer to 65 or 70 where his game power is playing at about 40-45 right now, and I think McDaniel sees him as a 50-60 raw power type with about the same current power. Either way, the power needs to develop. If you believe it will, he ranks higher; if you do not, it will rank lower. It's a simple but logical conclusion.

 

Regarding Bassitt, he only threw 86 IP between the majors, minors, and AFL. Who knows how much McDaniel actually got to see, but he's been a pretty unheralded guy throughout the minor league process but the Sox obviously seem to like him given a callup to the majors and an assignment to the AFL.

[LDF]

So he's lower than most of us on Ravelo and Micah, and VERY low on Bassitt.

 

Numbered summary:

 

1. Rodon

2. Anderson

3. Montas

4. Adams

5. Danish

 

BREAK

 

6. Michaelczewski

7. Johnson

8. Hawkins

9. Adolfo

10. Thompson

11. Davidson

12. May

 

BREAK

 

13. Sanchez

14. Sanburn

15. Beck

16. Barnum

17. Ravelo

18. Snodgress

19. Fry

20. Saladino

21. Engel

22. Trexler

 

Notable Mentions: Basto, Wilkins, Rondon, Austin, Bassitt, Nieto

 

thanks for putting all that info in this top 22 order. I was surprise at several players ranking.

I know this is all subjective to the individual, but what the hell. I think Adams is maybe at least

2 spots higher, Thompson and Davidson are 2-3 higher than should be, Bassitt imo should be

in the top 10. those are for starters. however I do like the write up and at least gives me a

different opinion of how the pro's are ranking them.

[NorthSideSox72]

This article is the first time I've seen someone talk about Basto having an MLB future. Kind of surprised.

 

[PolishPrince34]

Great article. Well done!

[thxfrthmmrs]

Very informative article, but he's definitely conservative on his tool grades and future projections.

 

Many reports call Rodon's slider an 70/80 pitch ever since he started pitching as a pro. McDaniel has it as a 65/70 pitch. Same with Micah's base running, when healthy, he's closer to 80 runner than the 65 suggested.

 

And I think if Danish, Adams, or Montas makes the majors, they will be better than #4 starters.

 

The fact that he ranked Thompson so high and yet also trashes Engel for his hit tool also suggests flawed logic here. They are essentially the same player with the same tools and same flaws.

[witesoxfan]

Very informative article, but he's definitely conservative on his tool grades and future projections.

 

Many reports call Rodon's slider an 70/80 pitch ever since he started pitching as a pro. McDaniel has it as a 65/70 pitch. Same with Micah's base running, when healthy, he's closer to 80 runner than the 65 suggested.

 

And I think if Danish, Adams, or Montas makes the majors, they will be better than #4 starters.

 

The fact that he ranked Thompson so high and yet also trashes Engel for his hit tool also suggests flawed logic here. They are essentially the same player with the same tools and same flaws.

 

Again, some of the grades could be for when he watched those guys play, and having conservative grades on things is not a bad thing. Dewon Day supposedly had an 80 slider but we obviously never saw that and he didn't do anything in the majors. Had they called it a 50 or a 60 with flashes of 80, nobody would have thought differently. He mentions that those pitches can be great, but they are usually not. That's just fine.

 

Also, Thompson has put up far better numbers than Engel and has far better tools. It's really not even close. Also, Thompson has spent 5 years in the White Sox minor league system compared to the 2 for Engel and Thompson is still just 9 months older than Engel. Thompson has proven he struggles with contact, but he's still also going to be 24 and likely heading to Charlotte, whereas Engel will be 23 and heading to high A, where Thompson was playing - 3 years ago. I am not even a big Thompson fan, but saying that Thompson and Engel are comparable prospects is crazy.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Again, some of the grades could be for when he watched those guys play, and having conservative grades on things is not a bad thing. Dewon Day supposedly had an 80 slider but we obviously never saw that and he didn't do anything in the majors. Had they called it a 50 or a 60 with flashes of 80, nobody would have thought differently. He mentions that those pitches can be great, but they are usually not. That's just fine.

 

Also, Thompson has put up far better numbers than Engel and has far better tools. It's really not even close. Also, Thompson has spent 5 years in the White Sox minor league system compared to the 2 for Engel and Thompson is still just 9 months older than Engel. Thompson has proven he struggles with contact, but he's still also going to be 24 and likely heading to Charlotte, whereas Engel will be 23 and heading to high A, where Thompson was playing - 3 years ago. I am not even a big Thompson fan, but saying that Thompson and Engel are comparable prospects is crazy.

Not sure I agree that Thompson has far better tools and not close... but he was definitely doing more, younger, at similar levels, and has proven a lot more at this point, to the level that he's basically ready to be a decent 4th OF today. They have similar ceilings I suppose, though Engel doesn't have nearly as much power.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I got a little elaboration out of him during his chat today, regarding Gordita Chrunchela:

 

12:16

 

 

Comment From Eminor3rd

Many of us White Sox fans are cautiously optimistic about Rangel Ravelo as an underrated guy. We feel like the hit tool is scarce enough that it could carry him even if he doesn't develop a ton of power. You seem to be a bit lower on him than a lot of us, though. Could you elaborate a bit?

12:19

 

 

Kiley McDaniel:

Sometimes 1B prospects with average tools end up being good. Most of them don't. When I don't have a lot of evidence telling me that they'll be good, I tend to lean towards them being ordinary, as do most/all scouts. If Ravelo's wRC+ was 110 instead of 142 (admittedly a big gap), I don't think he would've been on the list. But you can't rule it out that he hits like that next year...then he'd be pretty far down the list of AAA 1B, with tons of them raking....then you have just another dude. Unfortunately for him, he has to keep proving it.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I got a little elaboration out of him during his chat today, regarding Gordita Chrunchela:

 

 

It wasn't just you. There was a ton in there about the Sox today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdan...hs-chat-111414/

 

Comment From Eminor3rd

Many of us White Sox fans are cautiously optimistic about Rangel Ravelo as an underrated guy. We feel like the hit tool is scarce enough that it could carry him even if he doesn’t develop a ton of power. You seem to be a bit lower on him than a lot of us, though. Could you elaborate a bit?

 

 

12:19 Kiley McDaniel: Sometimes 1B prospects with average tools end up being good. Most of them don’t. When I don’t have a lot of evidence telling me that they’ll be good, I tend to lean towards them being ordinary, as do most/all scouts. If Ravelo’s wRC+ was 110 instead of 142 (admittedly a big gap), I don’t think he would’ve been on the list. But you can’t rule it out that he hits like that next year…then he’d be pretty far down the list of AAA 1B, with tons of them raking….then you have just another dude. Unfortunately for him, he has to keep proving it.

 

 

Comment From Gabes

You have Spencer Adams listed as a ’4′ Risk, but no mentions of issues with his delivery. Is the high risk just the result of him being a long way from The Show?

 

 

12:15 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, skinny high school righty isn’t a group you generally want to count on staying healthy…even when there’s no negative signs specific to the player. Also distance to the big leagues means a lot of stuff can still go wrong.

 

 

Comment From Nick

Do you think Michalczewski can stick at 3b? If not, what are the odds his bat can carry him at 1b?

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s at least average at 3B and should be able to stick. The White Sox list w/mode details: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

 

Comment From Nick

How patient do you expect the White Sox to be with Montas as a SP? How patient would you be?

 

 

12:27 Kiley McDaniel: I would guess they give him all of next year in AA then pull the plug if he doesn’t show improvement, maybe for the MLB pen in september if they’re in the race

 

 

Reading your ChiSox write-up, their theme seems to be “Athletic guys, raw tools, no feel to hit” as evidenced by Mitchell, Thompson, Hawkins, etc. Is this the result of just betting on the wrong raw, toolsy dudes or a failure of the development system?

 

 

Kiley McDaniel: Looking for upside when a while back they didn’t. This is what happens when it sometimes take a little longer

 

Comment From Guest

Trea Turner or Tim Anderson?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Anderson – more upside and proven at higher level, but it’s not by a landslide

 

Comment From Nick

Do you think the White Sox will ease Rodon into MLB as a RP?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, I would bet in rotation by June 1

 

[bmags]

Awesome thanks!

[thxfrthmmrs]

Again, some of the grades could be for when he watched those guys play, and having conservative grades on things is not a bad thing. Dewon Day supposedly had an 80 slider but we obviously never saw that and he didn't do anything in the majors. Had they called it a 50 or a 60 with flashes of 80, nobody would have thought differently. He mentions that those pitches can be great, but they are usually not. That's just fine.

 

Also, Thompson has put up far better numbers than Engel and has far better tools. It's really not even close. Also, Thompson has spent 5 years in the White Sox minor league system compared to the 2 for Engel and Thompson is still just 9 months older than Engel. Thompson has proven he struggles with contact, but he's still also going to be 24 and likely heading to Charlotte, whereas Engel will be 23 and heading to high A, where Thompson was playing - 3 years ago. I am not even a big Thompson fan, but saying that Thompson and Engel are comparable prospects is crazy.

 

I don't think either statements are true. If you adjust their stats based on their age vs competition, Thompson does have the advantage in that department, but not by a wide margin.

 

As far as tools go, the statement couldn't be more inaccurate. Outside of their hit tool, Engel has some of the best tools of anyone in the system, and has been compared to Mike Trout without the bat. While the comparison is a bit of a reach, it's been well documented that he's a plus plus runner with plus range in center. Both tools are superior to what Thompson has to offer. I believe he also brings an above average arm and above average raw power to the table as well. It's also worth pointing out Engel was rated as one of the best athletes in the entire 2013 draft.

 

At the end of the day, I agree with McDaniel's rank for Engel, but I don't see how Thompson is being ranked so high when he brings the same tools and flaws to the table as Engel, but has not made much progress in the past 3 years.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't think either statements are true. If you adjust their stats based on their age vs competition, Thompson does have the advantage in that department, but not by a wide margin.

 

As far as tools go, the statement couldn't be more inaccurate. Outside of their hit tool, Engel has some of the best tools of anyone in the system, and has been compared to Mike Trout without the bat. While the comparison is a bit of a reach, it's been well documented that he's a plus plus runner with plus range in center. Both tools are superior to what Thompson has to offer. I believe he also brings an above average arm and above average raw power to the table as well. It's also worth pointing out Engel was rated as one of the best athletes in the entire 2013 draft.

 

At the end of the day, I agree with McDaniel's rank for Engel, but I don't see how Thompson is being ranked so high when he brings the same tools and flaws to the table as Engel, but has not made much progress in the past 3 years.

Engel's speed tool is better than Thompson's. Thompson though, has an above average arm (just like Engel), and significantly more power. Both struggle with contact, raw hit tools. Thompson has proven more at yoinger ages per level.

 

Saying the statement "couldn't be more inaccurate" is hyperbole. I'd rank Thompson higher too.