Dodgers aggressively pursuing Alexei

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Um...........I see one problem with your statement............

Ha ,oops ,well could be done later .involving someone else .

[Balta1701]

Would anyone on this board be willing to trade Carlos Rodon for Alexei Ramirez? I know i sure as f*** would not so what makes people think Alexei should bring back a player ranked even higher? Its a ridiculous notion! Alexei does not have the perceived valued most think he has. Sorry, that's just the way it is.

Then there is no reason whatsoever to trade him.

[Bob Sacamano]

Here's another way to look at it...

 

Noah Snydergaard, ranked #10 over all by MLB.

 

Corey Seager, ranked #13 over all by MLB.

 

Julio Urias, ranked #14 over all by MLB.

 

Jock Pederson, ranked #15 over all by MLB.

 

Carlos Rodon, ranked #19 over all by MLB.

 

Would anyone on this board be willing to trade Carlos Rodon for Alexei Ramirez? I know i sure as f*** would not so what makes people think Alexei should bring back a player ranked even higher? Its a ridiculous notion! Alexei does not have the perceived valued most think he has. Sorry, that's just the way it is.

 

The Sox are by no means desperate to trade Alexei but if he's ever to be traded, now is the time. Going by the rumors the sox dont have to shop Alexei so as long as a team offers value ( not percieved fan value) then take it and move on as long as the return can at least help the 2016 team if not the 2015 team.With as many holes there are to fill I don't buy into the Sox contending in 2015 bs either. 2015 will be a year of making more progress and exposing what holes are left before the 2016 team emerges ready to contend. 2015 would be a great year to get Rodon and Bassitt acclimated to the MLB as well as increasing their IP so that hopefully in 2016 they can give the Sox 180+ IP. If indeed they have a future in the rotation.

 

To be fair though, we also do not have as much depth. Other than Rodon, Johnson, Anderson, Hawkins, Danish, and Montas (few of those guys kinda far away and no one really blocking them on MLB roster anyway like the LA situation), there isn't a whole lot to get excited about prospect wise.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's another way to look at it...

 

Noah Snydergaard, ranked #10 over all by MLB.

 

Corey Seager, ranked #13 over all by MLB.

 

Julio Urias, ranked #14 over all by MLB.

 

Jock Pederson, ranked #15 over all by MLB.

 

Carlos Rodon, ranked #19 over all by MLB.

 

Would anyone on this board be willing to trade Carlos Rodon for Alexei Ramirez? I know i sure as f*** would not so what makes people think Alexei should bring back a player ranked even higher? Its a ridiculous notion! Alexei does not have the perceived valued most think he has. Sorry, that's just the way it is.

 

The Sox are by no means desperate to trade Alexei but if he's ever to be traded, now is the time. Going by the rumors the sox dont have to shop Alexei so as long as a team offers value ( not percieved fan value) then take it and move on as long as the return can at least help the 2016 team if not the 2015 team.With as many holes there are to fill I don't buy into the Sox contending in 2015 bs either. 2015 will be a year of making more progress and exposing what holes are left before the 2016 team emerges ready to contend. 2015 would be a great year to get Rodon and Bassitt acclimated to the MLB as well as increasing their IP so that hopefully in 2016 they can give the Sox 180+ IP. If indeed they have a future in the rotation.

 

Syndergaard had a down year and was injured a bit. His stock should be significantly down at this point -- not GONE, but diminished. I'm guessing he's more like a 50-ish guy now. Which, to me, is a reasonable target for a centerpiece for Alexei.

 

[caulfield12]

Then there is no reason whatsoever to trade him.

 

 

Well, there's the "he falls off a cliff" in 2015 concern, we get nothing back in return and decline his 2016 option but Anderson isn't deemed ready quagmire of a situation.

[peavy44]

No. So anyone who wants him better be ready to pay up. Hence why he probably won't be traded.

 

 

 

 

Thank you I agree with you 100 percent.

Edited November 19, 2014 by peavy44

[Balta1701]

Well, there's the "he falls off a cliff" in 2015 concern, we get nothing back in return and decline his 2016 option but Anderson isn't deemed ready quagmire of a situation.

And there's a similar risk in every top 20 prospect you trade for to. Come on man.

 

Alexei Ramirez has been as reliable a SS as their is in baseball. He's #4 in MLB in fWAR out of that position the last 5 years, #5 over the last 2 years. Over the past 5 he's put up similar fWAR to Jose Reyes, who parleyed it into a $100 million contract. He's put up just about as many fWAR over that time period as Hanley Ramirez, who is about to get something similar. He ought to be treated as such.

[caulfield12]

And there's a similar risk in every top 20 prospect you trade for to. Come on man.

 

Alexei Ramirez has been as reliable a SS as their is in baseball. He's #4 in MLB in fWAR out of that position the last 5 years, #5 over the last 2 years. Over the past 5 he's put up similar fWAR to Jose Reyes, who parleyed it into a $100 million contract. He's put up just about as many fWAR over that time period as Hanley Ramirez, who is about to get something similar. He ought to be treated as such.

 

 

Except we did have a stretch there for two years where Marty34 was arguing that Ramirez was the biggest contract risk on the books.

 

2014 ALONE isn't going to erase that concern, although it has been mitigated.

 

His defensive metrics/range/eye test have been declining ever so slightly over the last 2-3 years, even though he's obviously still capable of making spectacular plays.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think you have delusions of grandeur for this team next year. We aren't going to be WS competitors next year...we are talking about the same 73 win team right? I expect upgrades and improvements, but this team needs to still have a future WS run in mind. A run that Alexei won't be apart of.

 

Zach Lee

Schebler

Jose Dominguez

Darnell Sweeney

Chris Reed

Alex Guerrero

 

All of those guys are very interesting and sure would help our system out. 3 of them + Eithier(and cash) for Danks and Alexei and I would do it in a heartbeat.

 

The trade that I threw out a couple weeks ago when the Alexei/LAD rumors started was Zach Lee, Scott Schebler, and Chris Reed for Alexei.

[beautox]

A couple of things:

Seagar isn't viewed by anyone as a shortstop except in namesake.

 

Friedman isn't a fool and realizes that strong defense up the middle especially when they're lacking a true centerfielder is incredibly important.

 

Sox fans in general undervalue their assets; the market this year at SS is a joke. Hardy signed before the off season kicked off you have a ton of middle infielders that aren't qualified to stay at short (Hanley, Lowrie, Cabrera) and a retread that was awful last year any team with world series aspirations and plenty of money wouldn't sign (Drew).

 

Alexei was a 3-3.3 win player last year, and has a very affordable contract this year and next, He has a ton of surplus value even when you factor in regression over the next two years at a .5 to .75 clip. At the very least he should fetch two top 100 prospects in the 50-80 range and a throw in. So even though Joc Pederson was ranked #15 by mlb doesn't take him out the equation for a similar value profile as Alexei's worth in addition to that, thats not even taking into account the fact that you don't surrender a draft pick and slot to acquire him and Hahn is sitting pretty with two untested but capable options in Semien and Sanchez.

 

Lastly as for all this talk of dumping Danks, why? he isn't a toxic asset and its very possible he plays to his contract or slightly under it. He just needs to be worth about a win and a half due to inflation and the amount of cash in the game, last year he was worth .8. Even with Danks on the payroll we still have between 40-60mil to spend in this offseason if Hahn so chooses.

[caulfield12]

A couple of things:

Seagar isn't viewed by anyone as a shortstop except in namesake.

 

Friedman isn't a fool and realizes that strong defense up the middle especially when they're lacking a true centerfielder is incredibly important.

 

Sox fans in general undervalue their assets; the market this year at SS is a joke. Hardy signed before the off season kicked off you have a ton of middle infielders that aren't qualified to stay at short (Hanley, Lowrie, Cabrera) and a retread that was awful last year any team with world series aspirations and plenty of money wouldn't sign (Drew).

 

Alexei was a 3-3.3 win player last year, and has a very affordable contract this year and next, He has a ton of surplus value even when you factor in regression over the next two years at a .5 to .75 clip. At the very least he should fetch two top 100 prospects in the 50-80 range and a throw in. So even though Joc Pederson was ranked #15 by mlb doesn't take him out the equation for a similar value profile as Alexei's worth in addition to that, thats not even taking into account the fact that you don't surrender a draft pick and slot to acquire him and Hahn is sitting pretty with two untested but capable options in Semien and Sanchez.

 

Lastly as for all this talk of dumping Danks, why? he isn't a toxic asset and its very possible he plays to his contract or slightly under it. He just needs to be worth about a win and a half due to inflation and the amount of cash in the game, last year he was worth .8. Even with Danks on the payroll we still have between 40-60mil to spend in this offseason if Hahn so chooses.

 

$60?

 

I'll eat Dick Allen's shoes if that happens.

[Eminor3rd]

A couple of things:

Seagar isn't viewed by anyone as a shortstop except in namesake.

 

Friedman isn't a fool and realizes that strong defense up the middle especially when they're lacking a true centerfielder is incredibly important.

 

Sox fans in general undervalue their assets; the market this year at SS is a joke. Hardy signed before the off season kicked off you have a ton of middle infielders that aren't qualified to stay at short (Hanley, Lowrie, Cabrera) and a retread that was awful last year any team with world series aspirations and plenty of money wouldn't sign (Drew).

 

Alexei was a 3-3.3 win player last year, and has a very affordable contract this year and next, He has a ton of surplus value even when you factor in regression over the next two years at a .5 to .75 clip. At the very least he should fetch two top 100 prospects in the 50-80 range and a throw in. So even though Joc Pederson was ranked #15 by mlb doesn't take him out the equation for a similar value profile as Alexei's worth in addition to that, thats not even taking into account the fact that you don't surrender a draft pick and slot to acquire him and Hahn is sitting pretty with two untested but capable options in Semien and Sanchez.

 

Lastly as for all this talk of dumping Danks, why? he isn't a toxic asset and its very possible he plays to his contract or slightly under it. He just needs to be worth about a win and a half due to inflation and the amount of cash in the game, last year he was worth .8. Even with Danks on the payroll we still have between 40-60mil to spend in this offseason if Hahn so chooses.

 

Absolutely on Seager. He's a 3B in the MLB, or at least the industry consensus thinks so.

 

Not sure about that math on Danks, though.

 

[LDF]

$60?

 

I'll eat Dick Allen's shoes if that happens.

I should be careful.... $60 seems reasonable b/c Hahn even said they might

spend a more than anticipated.

[y2chae]

The Sox have hovered around the $100 million payroll mark ever since the 2006 season. With the new TV money coming in, it wouldn't be a surprise to continue having a $100 million payroll. The Sox are committed to $48 million, with arbitration, tenders and pre arbitration costs it will probably be around $58 million.

 

If the Sox don't reach that mark it won't be because of ownership spending limitations, I have no doubt that Hahn has the green light to spend $60 million if he feels he can get the right deals.

[Jerksticks]

The Sox have hovered around the $100 million payroll mark ever since the 2006 season. With the new TV money coming in, it wouldn't be a surprise to continue having a $100 million payroll. The Sox are committed to $48 million, with arbitration, tenders and pre arbitration costs it will probably be around $58 million.

 

If the Sox don't reach that mark it won't be because of ownership spending limitations, I have no doubt that Hahn has the green light to spend $60 million if he feels he can get the right deals.

This sounds good to me. Would there be additional money available as well from 2014's final line? If we had a down payroll this year then do we have some bonus beans lying around, assuming a downtick in attendance didn't eat it all up?

Edited November 19, 2014 by Jerksticks

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The Sox have hovered around the $100 million payroll mark ever since the 2006 season. With the new TV money coming in, it wouldn't be a surprise to continue having a $100 million payroll. The Sox are committed to $48 million, with arbitration, tenders and pre arbitration costs it will probably be around $58 million.

 

If the Sox don't reach that mark it won't be because of ownership spending limitations, I have no doubt that Hahn has the green light to spend $60 million if he feels he can get the right deals.

 

I believe we are projected to be at about $66M right now after Duke's deal.

[caulfield12]

That $48 something figure wasn't including all the arbitration salaries (like Flowers and potentially Viciedo and definitely not Belisario), as well as covering the rest of the positions with minimum or 2nd year player salaries.

 

Assuming we're around that $60-66 mark, that leaves around $25 million that they will PROBABLY spend, putting them around the $90 million mark.

 

And that's being optimistic, based on last year's "profits" even with the additional tv revenues.

[Quin]

If an Alexei + Danks + prospect such as Trayce for Ethier/Kemp/Crawford + Pederson happened, this would be the money.

 

White Sox send out: $48.5M over next two years.

Dodgers send out (Ethier): $53.5M over three years.

Dodgers send out (Crawford): $62.2M

Dodgers send out (Kemp): $107M over five years.

 

With Ethier the Dodgers save $5M.

With Crawford the Dodgers save $13.7M.

With Kemp the Dodgers save $58.5M.

 

The above is why the Dodgers would have to send back Pederson if they wanted Alexei / wanted to unload an OF.

[beautox]

$60?

 

I'll eat Dick Allen's shoes if that happens.

I'm not saying its going to happen but its well within reason to spend that much if the right deals came about. The big free agents this year are all of the cuban imports, possibly Maeda, Sandoval, Lester and Scherezer, next year its pretty slim pickins after J Upton, J Heyward and Latos.

[caulfield12]

I'm not saying its going to happen but its well within reason to spend that much if the right deals came about. The big free agents this year are all of the cuban imports, possibly Maeda, Sandoval, Lester and Scherezer, next year its pretty slim pickins after J Upton, J Heyward and Latos.

 

http://www.southsidesox.com/2014/11/18/723...s-and-white-sox

 

Has there been a paradigm shift with the Martinez, Stanton and Martin deals?

 

Never thought about the exchange rate and customs issues with the Canadian teams since it has been so long since they signed a premium free agent....and Martin's a Canadian citizen so it would impact him less than the Caribbean/Latin American players.

 

And then the Stanton situation's so unique, but nobody trusts Loria or understands what he was thinking with that one.

[Lillian]

This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following:

 

1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years.

2) To unload some of their enormous payroll

3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp

 

The Sox are seeking:

1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat

2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production

3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi

4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward.

 

If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways:

1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for a corner OF spot and veteran leadership.

2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment.

3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several

years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready.

 

That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield.

The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward.

I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to

platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such

left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very

consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only.

 

Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any

expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening.

 

At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested

in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match.

Edited November 20, 2014 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

Alexei for Schebler and Ethier's contract?

 

That's a horrible deal for us. No one is taking Ethier unless the Dodgers eat some serious money. That's just a bad use of our most valuable, tradable asset.

[LDF]

This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following:

 

Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any

expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening.

 

At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested

in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match.

 

 

I really like the way you summarize it.

 

key point. the sox will not get immediate help. the idea of the trade is to

a. fill holes without loosing too much.

b. by filling those holes those players will step in. ala right away.

 

[caulfield12]

This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following:

 

1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years.

2) To unload some of their enormous payroll

3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp

 

The Sox are seeking:

1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat

2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production

3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi

4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward.

 

If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways:

1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for one corner Of and veteran leadership.

2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment.

3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several

years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready.

 

That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield.

The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward.

I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to

platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such

left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very

consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only.

 

Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any

expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening.

 

At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested

in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match.

 

Let's face it, statistically we're going to have to do something like taking back Edwin Jackson, Cliff Lee (plus giving up prospects), Tim Lincecum for Danks and cash subsidy...to the point where it feels like a bigger risk trading him than trying to give him away.

 

Maybe a change of scenery guy like Colby Lewis, with Danks going back to the Rangers (which, with his propensity for giving up long balls, probably wouldn't work in that bandbox).

 

The problem the Padres, Mariners, Giants, etc., don't need to spend that kind of money when they can get decent results from an Eric Stults, Clayton Richard or Chris Young type. Almost every pitcher looks 1-1.5 ERA points better in those stadiums. So while Danks needs to find a home where he won't lead the league in homers, nobody will want to pay him more than $6-8 (maybe that's even charitable) million because that's what he's arguably worth.

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

If Zach Duke is fixed by throwing side arm and changing his pitches, why can't Danks do the same?