White Sox sign Zach Duke, 3 years, $15 million

[hi8is]

Hey fun with selective endpoints! His 2nd half xFIP was 2.76 his 1st half was 1.72. He was pretty damn good in both.

 

The big difference? His strand rate went from 90.5 in the 1st and to 59.5 in the 2nd half, that and he walked a few more guys. He had a very good year overall, splitting it up is fairly useless for such a small sample already. He only pitched 20.2 after the ASB.

 

It's a fine signing I have no idea how anyone could be against it. They have money to spend and the pen was awful. This move hardly breaks the bank for additional signings.

I'd say that 20 innings is somewhat important when talking about a relivers second half. It raises my "uh-oh" meter.

This is coming from a guy who knows not what xFIP means, so please do enlighten me.

[caulfield12]

I'd say that 20 innings is somewhat important when talking about a relivers second half. It raises my "uh-oh" meter.

This is coming from a guy who knows not what xFIP means, so please do enlighten me.

 

Fielding Independent Pitching.

 

It attempts to strip away a team's individual defensive effects (in other words, the defense makes a Royals pitcher better than he actually is, or makes a White Sox pitcher look worse) and forecast what that player would do in a completely neutral context setting.

[hi8is]

Fielding Independent Pitching.

 

It attempts to strip away a team's individual defensive effects (in other words, the defense makes a Royals pitcher better than he actually is, or makes a White Sox pitcher look worse) and forecast what that player would do in a completely neutral context setting.

Thanks for the conceptual understanding - now can you give me idea who it's use apples numerically in the practical example of Dukes 2014 season splits ( 1.76 vs 2.72 )....

 

Or whatever the numbers where.

[shysocks]

Thanks for the conceptual understanding - now can you give me idea who it's use apples numerically in the practical example of Dukes 2014 season splits ( 1.76 vs 2.72 )....

 

Or whatever the numbers where.

It's designed to work on an ERA scale, so Duke's ERA "should have been" 1.76 and 2.72 by half if the context of all his appearances was neutral. xFIP adds an additional layer by regressing a guy's home run-to-fly ball ratio to league average - I don't necessarily agree with that approach because some would consider limiting homers a skill.

 

Looking into Duke's splits some more:

1st half: .210/.248/.283/.531

2nd half: .244/.326/.329/.655

 

A .655 OPS is fine and certainly doesn't match up with a 4.79 ERA. Control problems are the primary reason for the increase, as he walked 10 in the second half against only 7 in the first. Otherwise, a .244 average against a ground ball pitcher is fine and a .329 slugging is great.

 

30% of his earned runs on the season came in three bad outings in a row in early August. After that he did well: 14 innings, 6 earned runs, 15 hits (14 singles, 1 triple), 0 HR, 14 K, 3 BB, 69% GB. So it goes when you split small reliever samples up even further. I'm not inclined to worry about it but some are, and that's fine.

[Dick Allen]

Belisario's xFIP was 3.69. I watch nearly every White Sox game. I am not sold on xFIP, at least for relievers.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I'd say that 20 innings is somewhat important when talking about a relivers second half. It raises my "uh-oh" meter.

This is coming from a guy who knows not what xFIP means, so please do enlighten me.

 

It shouldn't for a ton of reasons, namely the fact that it's 20 innings. Jose Quintana had a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 35.1 IP in August, but your uh-oh meter didn't go off then. That's almost twice as big of a sample size.

[witesoxfan]

I cleaned this thread up a bit. Please keep this thread to CONSTRUCTIVE conversation on Zach Duke. This is the final warning for this thread.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Hey fun with selective endpoints! His 2nd half xFIP was 2.76 his 1st half was 1.72. He was pretty damn good in both.

 

The big difference? His strand rate went from 90.5 in the 1st and to 59.5 in the 2nd half, that and he walked a few more guys. He had a very good year overall, splitting it up is fairly useless for such a small sample already. He only pitched 20.2 after the ASB.

 

It's a fine signing I have no idea how anyone could be against it. They have money to spend and the pen was awful. This move hardly breaks the bank for additional signings.

I was just stirring the pot a bit since no one else checked his splits. Guess I stirred it too much since the thread got closed for a bit.

 

If I had to draw any conclusions from what I see there it would be this. When you completely reinvent yourself by changing your arm angle drastically maintaining command would probably be pretty hard.

 

He struggled with his control with a walk every 2 innings and 3 wild pitches . This was Downs problem. He just couldn't throw strikes.

 

I am satisfied they addressed a need with this signing.

 

Another point. When talking about relievers you live in the small sample size world. A successful set up guy or closer makes his living on small sample sizes. If you can manage to not give up runs just 1 inning per appearance you are a great RP. The reason RP numbers fluctuate so much from year to year is small sample sizes where a few bad outings can ruin your stats for the whole year. A starter like Quintana can overcome bad outings stat wise by piling up good innings ( 6-9 innings per appearance ) to offset the bad. A RP can't.

[witesoxfan]

I was just stirring the pot a bit since no one else checked his splits. Guess I stirred it too much since the thread got closed for a bit.

 

If I had to draw any conclusions from what I see there it would be this. When you completely reinvent yourself by changing your arm angle drastically maintaining command would probably be pretty hard.

 

He struggled with his control with a walk every 2 innings and 3 wild pitches . This was Downs problem. He just couldn't throw strikes.

 

I am satisfied they addressed a need with this signing.

 

Another point. When talking about relievers you live in the small sample size world. A successful set up guy or closer makes his living on small sample sizes. If you can manage to not give up runs just 1 inning per appearance you are a great RP. The reason RP numbers fluctuate so much from year to year is small sample sizes where a few bad outings can ruin your stats for the whole year. A starter like Quintana can overcome bad outings stat wise by piling up good innings ( 6-9 innings per appearance ) to offset the bad. A RP can't.

 

These are very valid concerns. How much do we think a guy like Putnam or Guerra would get on the open market right now? It wouldn't be be 3/$15, but their years weren't quite as good and they aren't left handed, so those influence it as well.

 

The small sample size works the other way too. How do we know he didn't just get hot and that he is going to lose his command? Perhaps he's similar to Donnie Veal. It's hard to know the true talent of a guy like that based on 50 some innings.

 

The Sox believe in his talent. All we can do is hope they're right.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

These are very valid concerns. How much do we think a guy like Putnam or Guerra would get on the open market right now? It wouldn't be be 3/$15, but their years weren't quite as good and they aren't left handed, so those influence it as well.

 

The small sample size works the other way too. How do we know he didn't just get hot and that he is going to lose his command? Perhaps he's similar to Donnie Veal. It's hard to know the true talent of a guy like that based on 50 some innings.

 

The Sox believe in his talent. All we can do is hope they're right.

The last sentence is basically how I feel about it. I can't even begin to guess how the guy will do next year. I can't wait til we sign Duke's RH counterpart Pat Neshek with his delivery and past history .

[LDF]

The last sentence is basically how I feel about it. I can't even begin to guess how the \

guy will do next year. I can't wait til we sign Duke's RH counterpart Pat Neshek with

his delivery and past history .

 

bingo...... I have been thinking of him since the weekend. he did great with

stl so I expect him to continue to do well.

[Eminor3rd]

The more I think about this, you just can't be upset at this deal.

 

The bullpen is bad, everyone wants them to make the bullpen better, then they went out and got one of the best guys available at $5m per year, and it's not even December yet. We shouldn't be up[set about it just because he isn't a superstar. There IS a very real chance that he sucks next year, but that's true of ALL relievers. If you were going to go buy ANY reliever, you're going to have to live with a good chance the dude sucks. Five million for a dude who pitched as well as Robertson/Miller, but doesn't come with the pedigree -- sure.

[Chisoxfn]

I just know one thing. If I see Krod sign for like 7-8M per year for 1 or 2 years, I'll be very upset. Unless of course that is him signing with the Sox. I think we need a closer to help settle everything down. You get the back of the pen controlled and it usually puts the rest of the pen in a much better position to succeed.

[southsider2k5]

I just know one thing. If I see Krod sign for like 7-8M per year for 1 or 2 years, I'll be very upset. Unless of course that is him signing with the Sox. I think we need a closer to help settle everything down. You get the back of the pen controlled and it usually puts the rest of the pen in a much better position to succeed.

 

I don't see the White Sox being done reliever shopping. I bet we see a right hander with closing experience signed. There are still about half a dozen guys who could be targeted.

[GGajewski18]

I don't see the White Sox being done reliever shopping. I bet we see a right hander with closing experience signed. There are still about half a dozen guys who could be targeted.

 

Agreed. Even Hahn said that they aren't done in the reliever market after they signed Duke.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't see the White Sox being done reliever shopping. I bet we see a right hander with closing experience signed. There are still about half a dozen guys who could be targeted.

Oh I agree. I don't love or absolutely hate the Duke signing but I don't think it solves our pen alone. The bigger priority in our pen is still out there and I am hoping we address it. It was surprising we jumped this soon on a non-closer though. I would have thought we would have been better served letting the market settle and then seeing who would be out there on shorter term deals who are quality (as I expect that will be the case, just like it often is when it comes to relievers).

 

However, presumably they had seen enough on Duke to like his long-term potential and figure they wanted him around for the longer haul and also wanted to make sure they weren't entirely pot committed to sitting around and waiting, kind of like I presume they will from a closer perspective. My guess is it will be a while until we make the next move in our pen and will let the market play itself out a bit. I think the next play the club will make will either be a trade to free up funds or a signing of an outfielder, such as Melky. Maybe they surprise us on Panda but I doubt it.

[LDF]

The more I think about this, you just can't be upset at this deal.

 

The bullpen is bad, everyone wants them to make the bullpen better, then they went out and got one of the best guys available at $5m per year, and it's not even December yet. We shouldn't be up[set about it just because he isn't a superstar. There IS a very real chance that he sucks next year, but that's true of ALL relievers. If you were going to go buy ANY reliever, you're going to have to live with a good chance the dude sucks. Five million for a dude who pitched as well as Robertson/Miller, but doesn't come with the pedigree -- sure.

 

i agree, lets fill those holes early then let the bang box take over for all

the hype.

[hi8is]

It shouldn't for a ton of reasons, namely the fact that it's 20 innings. Jose Quintana had a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 35.1 IP in August, but your uh-oh meter didn't go off then. That's almost twice as big of a sample size.

That's comparing apples to oranges buddy. 20 IP for an arm in the pen could represent over 25 percent of a season where as 20 IP for a starting pitcher idealy is only a 10 percent or less sample size.

[Jake]

xFIP is only useful if you suspect the player has given up more or fewer home runs than would be expected of him normally. Otherwise, FIP is better - it is especially better for relievers. The more innings pitched, the better ERA is (some folks think for evaluating career numbers, ERA is the better metric)

[Dick Allen]

That's comparing apples to oranges buddy. 20 IP for an arm in the pen could represent over 25 percent of a season where as 20 IP for a starting pitcher idealy is only a 10 percent or less sample size.

His motion is actually Sale-like know. I think there is a high risk of injury. Sale has been throwing like that forever. This guy just started. I wonder if his older body parts can take the stress.

[Eminor3rd]

That's comparing apples to oranges buddy. 20 IP for an arm in the pen could represent over 25 percent of a season where as 20 IP for a starting pitcher idealy is only a 10 percent or less sample size.

 

But that's the point -- a big part of why RPs are difficult to predict is because everything you see is small sample data, even though it FEELS like more than that.

[Dick Allen]

But that's the point -- a big part of why RPs are difficult to predict is because everything you see is small sample data, even though it FEELS like more than that.

I am really not trying to start anything, but if this is how you feel, how can you say in another post we HAVE to like the deal when it is for 3 years for a guy who if he pitched the other 38 innings like he did his last 20, even with a nice xFIP, would be lucky to get much more than $1 million guaranteed?

I'm sure there are players out there that if they had one good year, you wouldn't like it if the White Sox gave them $15 million for the next 3.

 

It's not a ton of money relative to baseball players, but I can't see how anyone can come to the conclusion there is a decent chance this guy is pretty good the next 3 years.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

That's comparing apples to oranges buddy. 20 IP for an arm in the pen could represent over 25 percent of a season where as 20 IP for a starting pitcher idealy is only a 10 percent or less sample size.

 

That's not at all apples to oranges. It just goes to show you how a reliever's counting numbers can fluctuate in a small sample size. Over 20 innings, is there going to be a significant difference between a reliever giving up 6 runs or 8 runs? Probably not. But his ERA goes from 2.70 to 3.60 in those 10 innings. If the bullpen is worn thin and they ask him to work 2 innings and he gives up 5 runs in one outing simply because they needed to get the inning eaten, it affects those numbers a great amount. But if you looked at his splits, you can see that they weren't really that bad.

 

I really am not worried about those. I worry more about the fact that he's only done this a year and that's a very small sample size too.

[witesoxfan]

I am really not trying to start anything, but if this is how you feel, how can you say in another post we HAVE to like the deal when it is for 3 years for a guy who if he pitched the other 38 innings like he did his last 20, even with a nice xFIP, would be lucky to get much more than $1 million guaranteed?

I'm sure there are players out there that if they had one good year, you wouldn't like it if the White Sox gave them $15 million for the next 3.

 

It's not a ton of money relative to baseball players, but I can't see how anyone can come to the conclusion there is a decent chance this guy is pretty good the next 3 years.

 

I don't think anybody is saying you have to like it, just that there's not a lot of reason to be upset about it. You can feel, as I know you do, that Duke is a fluke and it won't work out, but I think this will at least provide more utility than the Keppinger signing as he can be, at worst, a swingman for the Sox and at best he is going to be a nice set up guy. We did think Keppinger would be able to play around the field a bit better, but he seemingly lost all usefulness after that first year.

 

FWIW, I think that signing ultimately ended up being worse than the Dunn signing, all things considered.

[Eminor3rd]

I am really not trying to start anything, but if this is how you feel, how can you say in another post we HAVE to like the deal when it is for 3 years for a guy who if he pitched the other 38 innings like he did his last 20, even with a nice xFIP, would be lucky to get much more than $1 million guaranteed?

I'm sure there are players out there that if they had one good year, you wouldn't like it if the White Sox gave them $15 million for the next 3.

 

It's not a ton of money relative to baseball players, but I can't see how anyone can come to the conclusion there is a decent chance this guy is pretty good the next 3 years.

 

Because rolling the dice represents the only solution we have. I acknowledge all the risks you are bringing up. But you've also made the point that if we aren't ever going to take any risks, we aren't ever going to win.

 

The reason it's easy to like is that it's a risk where it is relatively easy to swallow the worst-case outcome. While Miller/Robertson are surer bets to perform, I'm not sure they're THAT much surer, and their cost/terms will hurt us so much more if they bomb.

 

In other words, I think it's a good balance of risk and reward, thanks to its low cost.

Edited November 20, 2014 by Eminor3rd