White Sox sign Zach Duke, 3 years, $15 million

[Soxfest]

Contract way high to me that's a lot for a LHR. 3 yr/9 mil would of been the max for Duke to me.

Edited November 18, 2014 by Soxfest

[Jose Abreu]

Contract way high to me that's a lot for a LHR.

Just wait until Miller signs...

[BaconOnAStick]

I like the signing.

 

Can't be any worse than Will Ohman or Scott Downs or Donnie Veal.

 

I can't imagine what Miller is asking for in this market. This will be bargain compared to him.

He can definitely be as bad as those guys. That's not impossible.

 

I don't mind this signing at all. The Sox let it get so bad that spending money had to be done.

 

[Soxfest]

Just wait until Miller signs...

Miller a lot better also.

[caulfield12]

You have some fascination with me. Would you like an autographed picture to hang in your room?

 

 

Only if you come out and admit you're Marty's 2nd alias, Ncorgbl OR the autographed picture is actually from a member of the band Rush.

 

On second thought, I'll settle for the perfect trifecta of all autographs on the market: Gordon Beckham, Victor Martinez and Ubaldo Jimenez posing together at some imaginary MLB All-Star game that never took place.

[caulfield12]

He can definitely be as bad as those guys. That's not impossible.

 

I don't mind this signing at all. The Sox let it get so bad that spending money had to be done.

 

Except Veal didn't cost us anything and gave us an exceptional 2nd half in 2012...minus falling apart a bit down the stretch.

[witesoxfan]

Ultimately, I would have liked to have safeguarded this a bit by not guaranteeing the 3rd year, but the Sox believe in the change he made and believe it's sustainable. They are betting a lot on their scouts on this one in hoping that they'll get a great lefty reliever for 3 years.

 

This is also not an unreasonable AAV. Teams are paying approximately $7 mill per WAR on the free agent market at this point. If Scherzer signs a $200 million deal, the signing team will expect him to produce 28.6 WAR over the duration of the contract. Given that the White Sox gave Duke $15 mill, they are expecting roughly 2 WAR. He basically has to be effective. He doesn't even have to be particularly good to make this a valuable deal for the Sox.

[Dick Allen]

Only if you come out and admit you're Marty's 2nd alias, Ncorgbl OR the autographed picture is actually from a member of the band Rush.

 

On second thought, I'll settle for the perfect trifecta of all autographs on the market: Gordon Beckham, Victor Martinez and Ubaldo Jimenez posing together at some imaginary MLB All-Star game that never took place.

What about Finnegan and Duffy?

[VAfan]

Playing devil's advocate to raise a point here.

 

Is it double standard that we constantly use WAR to grade players nowadays, but when it comes to actually paying the players, we aren't thrilled to pay $10 mil for a 2 WAR player but are fine with $5 mil for a 1 WAR player? Even without looking at WAR, Miller is still a 8th inning/ closer material while Duke is more of a 7th/8th inning guy.

 

If you want to argue about years here, Miller will be 33 at the end of a 4 year deal and Duke will be 36 at the end of this deal.

 

Duke is 31 now. He'll be 32 in April. We're getting him for the years he's 32, 33, and 34. He'll be 34 when the deal ends, not 36.

[witesoxfan]

Contract way high to me that's a lot for a LHR. 3 yr/9 mil would of been the max for Duke to me.

 

Duke probably received something like a 1 year, $6.5 mill offer or a 3 year, $15 million deal. If you offer him 3 years, $9 million, he's going to bet on himself and take the 1 year deal. If you offer him 2 years, $10 million, he's going to bet on himself and take the $6.5 million 1 year deal. The Mets probably would have paid him extra in a front loaded deal to take away the risk of a 2nd and 3rd year. The White Sox safeguarded themselves by spreading out the cost of the deal so as to save money in the budget for the rest of the offseason.

[TheTruth05]

Point is, Miller is better, and could be 5 WARs better according to WAR

 

True, but on the flipside of that, Miller could blow out his elbow on his first pitch and you're stuck with $40 mill deadweight as opposed to $15.

$40 mill for a reliever just doesn't make sense, especially with so many diamonds in the rough just waiting for a team to take a flyer.

Hochevar would be a nice get at this point, I honestly do think he'll bounce back nicely

Edited November 18, 2014 by TheTruth05

[lasttriptotulsa]

Player A) 3.38 ERA, 167.67 IP, 1.229 WHIP, 2.70 K/BB, .604 OPS

 

Player B) 3.28 ERA, 129 IP, 1.264 WHIP, 2.74 K/BB, .663 OPS

 

One guy comes at 3/15 the other at 4/40+. Who do you take?

[caulfield12]

Ultimately, I would have liked to have safeguarded this a bit by not guaranteeing the 3rd year, but the Sox believe in the change he made and believe it's sustainable. They are betting a lot on their scouts on this one in hoping that they'll get a great lefty reliever for 3 years.

 

This is also not an unreasonable AAV. Teams are paying approximately $7 mill per WAR on the free agent market at this point. If Scherzer signs a $200 million deal, the signing team will expect him to produce 28.6 WAR over the duration of the contract. Given that the White Sox gave Duke $15 mill, they are expecting roughly 2 WAR. He basically has to be effective. He doesn't even have to be particularly good to make this a valuable deal for the Sox.

 

As long as he's not Ohman or Downs bad but Ventura keeps trotting him out there time after time after time because "we're paying him to be our #1 LH set-up guy" or "we've got to trust the numbers on the back of his baseball card," etc.

 

With a Paulino/Downs/Ohman, you can cut your losses and exit stage left.

 

With this contract, it's similar to MacDougal or Linebrink in terms of coming back to bite you. If we had $350 million or whatever from Comcast like the Dodgers do with their regional tv rights deal, it wouldn't matter at all, he'd be just another Brian Wilson or Morrow or Belisario that could be dumped so they could line up for the next big thing to come along.

[TheTruth05]

Player A) 3.38 ERA, 167.67 IP, 1.229 WHIP, 2.70 K/BB, .604 OPS

 

Player B) 3.28 ERA, 129 IP, 1.264 WHIP, 2.74 K/BB, .663 OPS

 

One guy comes at 3/15 the other at 4/40+. Who do you take?

 

Lyle Mouton

[southsider2k5]

Player A) 3.38 ERA, 167.67 IP, 1.229 WHIP, 2.70 K/BB, .604 OPS

 

Player B) 3.28 ERA, 129 IP, 1.264 WHIP, 2.74 K/BB, .663 OPS

 

One guy comes at 3/15 the other at 4/40+. Who do you take?

 

 

Lyle Mouton

 

 

:wub:

[caulfield12]

What about Finnegan and Duffy?

 

 

They will both have better WAR in 2014 than Gordon Beckham, too.

 

Or Ubaldo.

 

 

We can bet that Duffy has a better WAR than Victor Martinez if you'd like.

[caulfield12]

What about Finnegan and Duffy?

 

 

They will both have better WAR in 2014 than Gordon Beckham, too.

 

Or Ubaldo.

 

 

We can bet that Duffy has a better WAR than Victor Martinez if you'd like.

[Dick Allen]

Ultimately, I would have liked to have safeguarded this a bit by not guaranteeing the 3rd year, but the Sox believe in the change he made and believe it's sustainable. They are betting a lot on their scouts on this one in hoping that they'll get a great lefty reliever for 3 years.

 

This is also not an unreasonable AAV. Teams are paying approximately $7 mill per WAR on the free agent market at this point. If Scherzer signs a $200 million deal, the signing team will expect him to produce 28.6 WAR over the duration of the contract. Given that the White Sox gave Duke $15 mill, they are expecting roughly 2 WAR. He basically has to be effective. He doesn't even have to be particularly good to make this a valuable deal for the Sox.

So your position has changed regarding WAR and relievers?

[Eminor3rd]

So your position has changed regarding WAR and relievers?

 

His point is that $5m buys you a bench player for a year. So no matter how you value an RP with or without WAR or LI, it's easy to see Duke being at least as valuable as a bench player.

[Eminor3rd]

Lyle Mouton

 

[Dick Allen]

His point is that $5m buys you a bench player for a year. So no matter how you value an RP with or without WAR or LI, it's easy to see Duke being at least as valuable as a bench player.

If the White Sox are spending $5 million on bench players, they will have a team record payroll.

 

As for those comparing Miller and Duke, I'm not sure if it was up to me, Andrew Miller would be offered a 4 year $40 million contract. But even if it meant some team would, it doesn't make this Duke signing a good idea. If he sucks, I hope we don't get the "it was a great idea at the time posts". It's a reach.

Edited November 18, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Y2Jimmy0]

Not sure what everyone is angry about here? It's a slight overpay but it's free agency. If he continues to pitch similarly to how he pitched last year, it's actually a bargain. This hinges on him not regressing but last year he would have lead the White Sox bullpen in K/9 and FIP. (He has a FIP of like 2.80 since becoming a reliever). He would have also been 2nd in BB/9, ERA, and WHIP. It's a huge upgrade. Stop thinking about Zach Duke the failed Pittsburgh starter.

[shysocks]

It's a story we have heard before. Guy has a big year, and has found it. Maybe it has happened before, but he DOUBLED his career k-rate at age 31. Has anyone A. Ever done that, and B. Sustained it for a few years? His 2014 was the outlier of all outliers.

I have no idea if A and B have ever happened, but the fact that such a drastic change occurred for a pitcher should clue you in that an actual change was made in his mechanics, pitch mix, or both. There is a difference between a statistical outlier and a guy becoming a different player. The Sox obviously targeted this guy, noted something different, and believe it's the latter. Whether he can continue to be effective and adjust when the league's scouting catches up, we'll see. But if we take his career K rate of 5 and last year's of 11 and split the difference at 8, I will guess he is above 8 going forward.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yeah, I can go for this. A little steep, but that's the market. Let's make a trend and sign another failed starter who's been great out of the pen (albeit in a small sample size) in Hochevar.

 

I've been with you on this since you first mentioned it. They've liked Hochevar in the past IIRC as well.

[harfman77]

No, this is exactly what I don't want. Signing one year wonders who are over 30 and have been released a couple of times the last 2 years.

 

Coming into this season, the White Sox didn't think he was worth 1/5 of what they paid Scott Downs or they could have signed him for exactly that. Now he's worth $15 million over 3 years?

 

This is the kind of guy that the Sox bullpen needs though. Another thread talked about leadership, Duke has done it all from a pitching standpoint. As a rookie, he looked like he was going to be the real deal, but eventually bombed as a starter then bombed in his transition to the bullpen, but kept working at it and is now getting some pretty good results. The bullpen is going to be pretty young next year, and someone who has the perspective of handling a lot of adversity can be a good leader for that group.

 

Hes a solid bullpen arm, can go multiple innings if needed, and throws left handed. The contract is not large by the context of what other players have been getting or what I think they will continue to get in FA.