Yoenis Cespedes traded to Detroit for Rick Porcello

[chitownsportsfan]

The red Sox have 5 fourth starters in their rotation. Strong team? Eh. IMO they are around an 80 win bunch. White Sox are currently around 83 IMO. Both team need moremgood moves plus some development luck to make playoffs IMO. The al easdt is bad tho, might be worst in AL.

[LDF]

I think the Tigers are worse than they were last year, but that's because they are essentially replacing Porcello and Scherzer with Greene and Simon. From yesterday to today, assuming they knew they were not going to resign Scherzer, I think they've improved.

 

They are trying to sneak a few years in there before their window closes, and I think they're about 2 years from it closing shut.

 

i like your thinking, but i am looking at the sox after 2005 and at Bos last yr.

 

Det is going the rt of sox in 2005 and to savage a couple more yrs. the

sox should have done a total rebuild in 2007 or later. that big distraction

was Ozzie and family.

 

now Bos did the right thing last yr. they just regroup and traded their main

assets and did a quasi rebuild. this should be an example to use from

now on.

[LDF]

The red Sox have 5 fourth starters in their rotation. Strong team? Eh.

IMO they are around an 80 win bunch. White Sox are currently around 83 IMO. Both team need moremgood moves plus some development luck to make playoffs IMO. The al easdt is bad tho, might be worst in AL.

 

i really don't have a time to talk about it now,

[Bigsoxhurt35]

The wild card for Detroit is Iglesias. If he's not healthy their defense will continue to struggle

[GreenSox]

The wildcard for Detroit is Scherzer.

I think the Sox got the un-hyped version of Iglesias- Rondon. Bosox hype machine begins in AA

[chitownsportsfan]

Straight from Dave d the tigers are out on scherzer. Gotta love when your rivals have days like this. Bless you boys is an angry mean place right now.

 

Simon is trash come on I'd rather have Hector he is 8 years younger with a similiar 2014!

[Eminor3rd]

Straight from Dave d the tigers are out on scherzer. Gotta love when your rivals have days like this. Bless you boys is an angry mean place right now.

 

Simon is trash come on I'd rather have Hector he is 8 years younger with a similar 2014!

 

Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP

Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP

 

I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

[Balta1701]

Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP

Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP

 

I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

So if you drop the "stretching his arm out to go 6 innings/terrible with the Rangers and Ms" portion, basically Noesi was just about as good as a guy the Tigers had to trade for?

[shysocks]

Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP

Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP

 

I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

The argument is that Simon pitched in the NL and FIP doesn't account for that.

 

FIP-: Simon 116, Noesi 123. Depends on your definition of "substantially" I guess.

[Chisoxfn]

So if you drop the "stretching his arm out to go 6 innings/terrible with the Rangers and Ms" portion, basically Noesi was just about as good as a guy the Tigers had to trade for?

Alfredo Simon has a career ERA + of 102 in 209 major league games (51 starts) and has put up 156, 132 and 105 ERA+ in the past three seasons. Now a lot of Simon's career was spent in the bullpen and I don't know enough about him to factor tools into the equation but when you consider track record, etc, I'd say it would be hard to argue a paper spot in the rotation is better with Noesi than Simon.

[Chisoxfn]

The argument is that Simon pitched in the NL and FIP doesn't account for that.

 

FIP-: Simon 116, Noesi 123. Depends on your definition of "substantially" I guess.

Doesn't ERA+ take those factors into account?

[chitownsportsfan]

I can't f***ing wait to get a real keyboard here tonight so I can argue better. Typing on tablet sucks I am 4 days out of biletrral patellar tendon repair and just now starting to get life back in order.

 

Noesis splits as a Sox are very comparable to Simons. And Simon has no ability to eat innings asmamreliever turned starter that collapsed in august and sept.

[shysocks]

Doesn't ERA+ take those factors into account?

It does. Simon's ERA has been substantially better than Noesi's without a doubt, but their FIPs are more comparable.

 

I don't really think either is any good, for the record. If I had to pick one to start the wild card game, I'd shrug my shoulders and pray for rain.

[Chisoxfn]

It does. Simon's ERA has been substantially better than Noesi's without a doubt, but their FIPs are more comparable.

 

I don't really think either is any good, for the record. If I had to pick one to start the wild card game, I'd shrug my shoulders and pray for rain.

So you tell me...why should I focus more on FIP than ERA+? I'm curious what your thoughts are on which one is more valuable / why.

[GreenSox]

P

 

I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

I'll make this argument:

Noesi is a starter. He is not a reliever.

Look at the evidence. His only other decent year was when he started most of the games.

Despite a bullpen in tatters what do the Sox do immediately upon claiming this middle reliever? they put him in the rotation and keep him there.

 

[shysocks]

So you tell me...why should I focus more on FIP than ERA+? I'm curious what your thoughts are on which one is more valuable / why.

Well I didn't cite FIP, I cited FIP-, which is park and league adjusted like ERA+.

 

I'm not too interested in a philosophical FIP/ERA debate right now, but in general I think FIP has more predictive value while ERA is better for answering, "How good was this guy's season?" But for this argument I'd point to FIP because we're talking about who we'd rather have next season, and because only 5 qualified starters had a larger deficit of their ERA to their FIP last season than Simon. He also isn't a guy who has built up a track record of being able to consistently outdo his peripherals; the season before 2014 where he had a significant number of starts was 2011, and in that year his ERA was quite a bit higher than his FIP.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I'll make this argument:

Noesi is a starter. He is not a reliever.

Look at the evidence. His only other decent year was when he started most of the games.

Despite a bullpen in tatters what do the Sox do immediately upon claiming this middle reliever? they put him in the rotation and keep him there.

 

I think it was more along the lines of Cooper knowing how to make Noesi more effective than the Sox saying he needs to be starting because his stats were better.

[Eminor3rd]

I'll make this argument:

Noesi is a starter. He is not a reliever.

Look at the evidence. His only other decent year was when he started most of the games.

Despite a bullpen in tatters what do the Sox do immediately upon claiming this middle reliever? they put him in the rotation and keep him there.

 

I agree. But in that role he was a lot worse than Simon.

[Eminor3rd]

So if you drop the "stretching his arm out to go 6 innings/terrible with the Rangers and Ms" portion, basically Noesi was just about as good as a guy the Tigers had to trade for?

 

I mean how much is that portion? I see that could be a factor, but what is there to suggest that all his good was true talent and all his bad was "stretching out?"

 

In general, it sounds like the most generous possible explanations/justifications for Noesi's poor performance paint him as "not significantly worse" than Simon last year, right?

[caulfield12]

Can Gose hit? Can JD Martinez do the same thing Gillaspie is attempting or was it a fluke?

 

Will Castellanos take the next step? What happens at SS between Suarez and Iglesias? How long before Victor and Cabrera fall apart?

 

What happened to the "real" Alex Avila...or is this the version they're stuck with?

 

How long before that bullpen completely implodes again?

 

Most importantly, which Verlander are they left with for the remainder of that contract? Can Anibal Sanchez remain healthy? They've traded Smyly/Porcello/Fister, lost Scherzer and replaced that with bigger question marks.

 

 

Bottom line...still the favorite because the Royals haven't done anything yet other than sign Hochevar and Morales. Dyson in the OF over Aoki's probably a wash at best.

[Kyyle23]

Can Gose hit? Can JD Martinez do the same thing Gillaspie is attempting or was it a fluke?

 

Will Castellanos take the next step? What happens at SS between Suarez and Iglesias? How long before Victor and Cabrera fall apart?

 

What happened to the "real" Alex Avila...or is this the version they're stuck with?

 

How long before that bullpen completely implodes again?

 

Most importantly, which Verlander are they left with for the remainder of that contract? Can Anibal Sanchez remain healthy? They've traded Smyly/Porcello/Fister, lost Scherzer and replaced that with bigger question marks.

 

 

Bottom line...still the favorite because the Royals haven't done anything yet other than sign Hochevar and Morales. Dyson in the OF over Aoki's probably a wash at best.

 

 

Eh?

[witesoxfan]

Can Gose hit? Can JD Martinez do the same thing Gillaspie is attempting or was it a fluke?

 

Will Castellanos take the next step? What happens at SS between Suarez and Iglesias? How long before Victor and Cabrera fall apart?

 

What happened to the "real" Alex Avila...or is this the version they're stuck with?

 

How long before that bullpen completely implodes again?

 

Most importantly, which Verlander are they left with for the remainder of that contract? Can Anibal Sanchez remain healthy? They've traded Smyly/Porcello/Fister, lost Scherzer and replaced that with bigger question marks.

 

 

Bottom line...still the favorite because the Royals haven't done anything yet other than sign Hochevar and Morales. Dyson in the OF over Aoki's probably a wash at best.

 

The moral of this story is that, depending on how deep you want to look into a situation, you can find enough question marks to question your own existence.

[chitownsportsfan]

Suarez is gone. The just put all their eggs in a basket of a guy that missed all of 14 with a serious leg injury and has little mlb track record before that. If Iglesias isn't 15 runs above average at SS he is a .5 war to 1.5 war guy at best. His entire value is in defense and I don't care if he is Ozzie smith if he is hitting 180/220/250 in June he isn't a good over all starting SS . you gotta hit some.

[Lillian]

The Central Division is very winnable. I hope that the my scenario, which involvers J. Reinsdorf upping the payroll becomes reality.

[BlackSox13]

The Central Division is very winnable. I hope that the my scenario, which involvers J. Reinsdorf upping the payroll becomes reality.

I think you're right, JR would up the payroll for the right player(s). Also agree that the ALC is very winnable. The Indians, Tigers and Royals will be tough but so will the White Sox. Should be a fun 2015 for Sox fans.