Reds and Rockies Speculation

[witesoxfan]

Since we're getting in on the home/away debate, despite the fact that most hitters will hit better at home so long as their ballpark is not some hitter masoCHASM, let's look at Corey Dickerson's, shall we?

 

2014

Home: .363/.415/.684/1.098

Away: .252/.305/.431/.735

 

NO COREY, THAT'S A BAD COREY

 

All I take out of those numbers are that a good hitter hit better at home than on the road and he's not going to be cheap.

[Dick Allen]

There are plenty of players who have divergent home and away splits that do not play in Coors field. It isn't entirely a product of the thin air. It also has to do with comfort level, experience, etc.

3100 career plate appearances

 

.329/.387/.601 vs, .258/.314/.437 which includes around 400 appearances as an A where his splits were close to the same home and road. .339/.400/.625 at Coors Field in his career.

 

I think a lot of has to do with the thin air, and big field.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

3100 career plate appearances

 

.329/.387/.601 vs, .258/.314/.437 which includes around 400 appearances as an A where his splits were close to the same home and road. .339/.400/.625 at Coors Field in his career.

 

I think a lot of has to do with the thin air, and big field.

And given the hitting environment in Chicago, and the big fields in Detroit, Minnesota and KC, you don't think he would hit well here?

Edited December 2, 2014 by iamshack

[BlackSox13]

Any guesses as to what the Sox would have to give up for Dickerson? Dickerson's numbers and five more years of team control will cost a pretty big haul.

[LDF]

3100 career plate appearances

 

.329/.387/.601 vs, .258/.314/.437 which includes around 400 appearances as an A where his splits were close to the same home and road. .339/.400/.625 at Coors Field in his career.

 

I think a lot of has to do with the thin air, and big field.

 

it has been mention by the mlb people that coors has a big advantage

b/c of the thin air. it make the hit ball travel farther.

[witesoxfan]

Any guesses as to what the Sox would have to give up for Dickerson? Dickerson's numbers and five more years of team control will cost a pretty big haul.

 

A lot. And his splits from last year don't paint him any prettier than Gonzalez.

[Eminor3rd]

Cargo 2012

Home- .368/.437/.609

Away- .234-.301/.405

 

Cargo 2011

Home- .331/.402/.597

Away- .252/.317/.440

 

Saying "Coors or not" doesn't work...not even close.

 

Now look up the home/away splits for other players. Turns out most guys are better at home.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

Now look up the home/away splits for other players. Turns out most guys are better at home.

 

For example:

 

HOME .310/.416/.635/1.050

AWAY .265/.374/.474/.848

 

Giancarlo Stanton

[Balta1701]

The issue is that Cargo's H/R splits are both bigger than most people's and bigger than most people who play in Coors. Is he a guy who puts up a .900 OPS at home if he leaves or is he a guy who puts up an .800 OPS at home if he leaves?

 

That's the issue you have to figure out, and I wonder if such extreme H/R splits genuinely makes him untradeable. The Rockies wouldn't give him up for nothing, but teams won't trust him outside of Coors with those kind of career splits enough to give up major talent and take on that kind of money.

[Eminor3rd]

The issue is that Cargo's H/R splits are both bigger than most people's and bigger than most people who play in Coors. Is he a guy who puts up a .900 OPS at home if he leaves or is he a guy who puts up an .800 OPS at home if he leaves?

 

That's the issue you have to figure out, and I wonder if such extreme H/R splits genuinely makes him untradeable. The Rockies wouldn't give him up for nothing, but teams won't trust him outside of Coors with those kind of career splits enough to give up major talent and take on that kind of money.

 

They are bigger than normal, but the issue is substantially smaller than people paint it because of the default home/away effect.

 

Also, the Cell is also a bandbox.

[Eminor3rd]

The issue is that Cargo's H/R splits are both bigger than most people's and bigger than most people who play in Coors. Is he a guy who puts up a .900 OPS at home if he leaves or is he a guy who puts up an .800 OPS at home if he leaves?

 

That's the issue you have to figure out, and I wonder if such extreme H/R splits genuinely makes him untradeable. The Rockies wouldn't give him up for nothing, but teams won't trust him outside of Coors with those kind of career splits enough to give up major talent and take on that kind of money.

 

Also, I think the bigger impediment to his tradeability is his down year. The reason the Rockies probably won't trade him is because they don;t HAVE to. They can let him try to rebuild his value, which he'll probably do if he can stay healthy.

[LDF]

Also, I think the bigger impediment to his tradeability is his down year. The reason the Rockies probably won't trade him is because they don;t HAVE to. They can let him try to rebuild his value, which he'll probably do if he can stay healthy.

 

the most perfect idea in him.

[GreenSox]

I hope he makes trades similar to the ones last year: well-thought out that fill a need and which doesn't hurt the farm.

[sammy esposito]

I hope he makes trades similar to the ones last year: well-thought out that fill a need and which doesn't hurt the farm.

If indeed the farm is not to be damaged. it may be to our advantage not to pay in farm talent to get short term results.

[Balta1701]

I hope he makes trades similar to the ones last year: well-thought out that fill a need and which doesn't hurt the farm.

This would in theory do those things, because the Rockies can't expect teams to give up much if they're absorbing that contract, but doing so would instead cost us our financial flexibility going forward.

[TheFutureIsNear]

They are bigger than normal, but the issue is substantially smaller than people paint it because of the default home/away effect.

 

Also, the Cell is also a bandbox.

 

I don't think you (and everybody else in this thread) are quite grasping how much Coors affects hitters. And I'm not taking the ball traveling and HR's. Look at the park factors from this year http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor those #'s are insane. Every single year Coors field is #1 in park factor and more specificly the hit factor. And then there's the fact that the Rockies WRC+ as a team is 17 points lower on the road than at home since the year 2002. Is that a big enough sample size for you? The next biggest disparity in the league is Arizona (#2 on that park factor list) at -9. And I could keep going about the foul territory and how Coors has the least amount of foul ball outs too.

 

So yeah, if you believe it's merely a coincidence that Cargo's splits are so drastic then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well.

 

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I don't think you (and everybody else in this thread) are quite grasping how much Coors affects hitters. And I'm not taking the ball traveling and HR's. Look at the park factors from this year http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor those #'s are insane. Every single year Coors field is #1 in park factor and more specificly the hit factor. And then there's the fact that the Rockies WRC+ as a team is 17 points lower on the road than at home since the year 2002. Is that a big enough sample size for you? The next biggest disparity in the league is Arizona (#2 on that park factor list) at -9. And I could keep going about the foul territory and how Coors has the least amount of foul ball outs too.

 

So yeah, if you believe it's merely a coincidence that Cargo's splits are so drastic then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well.

 

I don't think there's any underestimation going on. I think the idea is that people are overestimating how much these splits matter. No one is saying that Carlos Gonzalez is going to be a .950 OPS bat (or whatever) if he were to stop playing his home games at Coors, but that he'd still be a pretty damn good hitter. Corey Dickerson is probably not a .930 OPS guy or a 140 wRC+ guy away from Coors, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly a bum.

[Rowand44]

For example:

 

HOME .310/.416/.635/1.050

AWAY .265/.374/.474/.848

 

Giancarlo Stanton

Still damn good on the road, can't say the same for Cargo.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I don't think there's any underestimation going on. I think the idea is that people are overestimating how much these splits matter. No one is saying that Carlos Gonzalez is going to be a .950 OPS bat (or whatever) if he were to stop playing his home games at Coors, but that he'd still be a pretty damn good hitter. Corey Dickerson is probably not a .930 OPS guy or a 140 wRC+ guy away from Coors, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly a bum.

 

First, I don't know how Dickerson for brought up. Why would Colorado trade a 25 year old that will be cheap for the next 4 years? It would take minimum 2 top prospects to get him.

 

And as for Cargo....the only thing I can judge him on is the 1,833 PA's he's had away from Coors. And those 1,833 PA's say that he's pretty much been a bum. Maybe he'd be better, maybe he wouldn't. Neither of us actually know. But one thing I can assure you of is that it would be really really stupid to spend $53M + prospects to find out.

 

 

 

 

[Kyyle23]

First, I don't know how Dickerson for brought up. Why would Colorado trade a 25 year old that will be cheap for the next 4 years? It would take minimum 2 top prospects to get him.

 

And as for Cargo....the only thing I can judge him on is the 1,833 PA's he's had away from Coors. And those 1,833 PA's say that he's pretty much been a bum. Maybe he'd be better, maybe he wouldn't. Neither of us actually know. But one thing I can assure you of is that it would be really really stupid to spend $53M + prospects to find out.

 

But like I asked earlier, why is Bruce a better option? Because he is a little bit cheaper? His splits show from year to year he will choose to be a bum either home or away, and be merely ok on the the opposite. I just don't see why you think Bruce is such a better option, unless you think the difference in pay is that big of a deal.

[Dick Allen]

Now look up the home/away splits for other players. Turns out most guys are better at home.

The difference between his split at Coors and everywhere else OPS wise for his career, not just cherry pickimg seasons,is equal to the 2014 difference between Gordon Beckham and Miguel Cabrera.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

The difference between his split at Coors and everywhere else OPS wise for his career, not just cherry pickimg seasons,is equal to the 2014 difference between Gordon Beckham and Miguel Cabrera.

 

 

Consequently, we should resign Gordon Beckham to the same deal Illitch gave Cabrera.

 

Fun with statistics.

[TheFutureIsNear]

But like I asked earlier, why is Bruce a better option? Because he is a little bit cheaper? His splits show from year to year he will choose to be a bum either home or away, and be merely ok on the the opposite. I just don't see why you think Bruce is such a better option, unless you think the difference in pay is that big of a deal.

 

I'm not a huge fan of Bruce or anything....I just think he's intriguing enough to take a risk on for what could be at most 2 years and 26M....especially if Leake is attached. Trust me, he's no where near my ideal LF in a perfect world.

Edited December 3, 2014 by TheFutureIsNear

[Rowand44]

But like I asked earlier, why is Bruce a better option? Because he is a little bit cheaper? His splits show from year to year he will choose to be a bum either home or away, and be merely ok on the the opposite. I just don't see why you think Bruce is such a better option, unless you think the difference in pay is that big of a deal.

No one will care if either of these hitters has extreme splits on the Sox but people are worried that Cargo is the hitter he's shown he is away from Coors. Obviously people have proven that hitters do tend to hit better at home but Cargo's splits are so ridiculous while playing in by far the best hitters park around that it's really quite the risk with his price tag and his injury history. For me personally that's 3 strikes and no thanks on Cargo.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Rowand44

[LDF]

I'm not a huge fan of Bruce or anything....I just think he's intriguing enough to take a risk on for what could be at most 2 years and 26M....especially if Leake is attached. Trust me, he's no where near my ideal LF in a perfect world.

 

Cincy is in need to clear some salary space as well get some salary

relief. I can live with Bruce, if Cincy adds a throw in player.