Reds and Rockies Speculation

[Y2Jimmy0]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/rock...in-rosario.html

 

Hasn't Hahn liked Rosario in the past?

[Y2Jimmy0]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/rock...in-rosario.html

 

Hasn't Hahn liked Rosario in the past?

[BlackSox13]

Rosario would make a platoon partner with LaRoche and maybe back up Flowers.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't think you (and everybody else in this thread) are quite grasping how much Coors affects hitters. And I'm not taking the ball traveling and HR's. Look at the park factors from this year http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor those #'s are insane. Every single year Coors field is #1 in park factor and more specificly the hit factor. And then there's the fact that the Rockies WRC+ as a team is 17 points lower on the road than at home since the year 2002. Is that a big enough sample size for you? The next biggest disparity in the league is Arizona (#2 on that park factor list) at -9. And I could keep going about the foul territory and how Coors has the least amount of foul ball outs too.

 

So yeah, if you believe it's merely a coincidence that Cargo's splits are so drastic then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you as well.

 

But all of that is baked right into wRC+, so you can see that he is still really good after you account for the Coors effect. Since he broke out in 2009 (excepting his injury-driven lemon last year), his has fluctuated between 114 - 147. He's a star level bat even with the park and league adjustment.

 

The question is, of course, is his health. Will he ever be healthy again? The high AAV on a short term deal is not at all outrageous if you think you're getting even a 125 wRC+ OF that plays good defense.

[BlackSox13]

LaRoche isn't a platoon player.

LaRoche just hit .204 against left handers and .280 against right handers. He just does not hit lefties good and the team would be better off with a right handed batter that can hit lefties.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The money issue is a very fair criticism, I just dont like that Jay Bruce's one year that he missed a lot of games was last season, and it was because of his knee.

 

He only missed 25 games. Only one time has CarGo missed less than 27 games. I don't think you can consider Bruce an injury concern, at least not anywhere close to CarGo, for a lot less money.

[Jerksticks]

I still think trading our prospects is going to be for surer bets than cargo or bruce.

[Lemon_44]

This board is a very intelligent baseball group, although a little too advance stats oriented for my like, so I find it strange that many of you don't like Jay Bruce. A healthy Jay Bruce is a top level baseball player.

[Balta1701]

This board is a very intelligent baseball group, although a little too advance stats oriented for my like, so I find it strange that many of you don't like Jay Bruce. A healthy Jay Bruce is a top level baseball player.

I don't like knee injuries and I don't like giving up high level talent for guys coming off knee injuries. If I'm taking on a guy after a knee injury, it ought to be at a discount reflecting the injury. Why would the Reds give him up for a discount?

[ptatc]

I don't like knee injuries and I don't like giving up high level talent for guys coming off knee injuries. If I'm taking on a guy after a knee injury, it ought to be at a discount reflecting the injury. Why would the Reds give him up for a discount?

It was only a meniscus injury. There doesn't seem to be any structural damage from what I can find. It wouldn't concern me with trading for him.

[Balta1701]

It was only a meniscus injury. There doesn't seem to be any structural damage from what I can find. It wouldn't concern me with trading for him.

To say it a different way...I don't think the White Sox should be paying full price for anyone with where their roster is - that means either in trades or in FA. They're not in a position where a single player likely puts them over the top this season.

 

I can see taking on someone like Cargo - with his value beaten down to the point the Rockies might just let him go, but I don't know why the Reds would give us a discount on Bruce.

[southsider2k5]

It was only a meniscus injury. There doesn't seem to be any structural damage from what I can find. It wouldn't concern me with trading for him.

 

That is nice information to know. Thanks.

[LDF]

the idea of giving full value for a player that expensive is

too much for me. now if he is the missing part of the puzzle,

maybe. that price too much for me to swallow.

 

now, Cincy need to clear space and relief in salary, so they

will need to entice the soxs.

 

start enticing.

[TheFutureIsNear]

But all of that is baked right into wRC+, so you can see that he is still really good after you account for the Coors effect. Since he broke out in 2009 (excepting his injury-driven lemon last year), his has fluctuated between 114 - 147. He's a star level bat even with the park and league adjustment.

 

The question is, of course, is his health. Will he ever be healthy again? The high AAV on a short term deal is not at all outrageous if you think you're getting even a 125 wRC+ OF that plays good defense.

 

 

No, there is something seriously wrong with the wrc+ #'s for coors...or something just really weird in general is going on. Either way wrc+ isn't a good stat to use for Rockies players. Really interesting read about it below

 

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/...or-the-rockies/

 

[iamshack]

But all of that is baked right into wRC+, so you can see that he is still really good after you account for the Coors effect. Since he broke out in 2009 (excepting his injury-driven lemon last year), his has fluctuated between 114 - 147. He's a star level bat even with the park and league adjustment.

 

The question is, of course, is his health. Will he ever be healthy again? The high AAV on a short term deal is not at all outrageous if you think you're getting even a 125 wRC+ OF that plays good defense.

Let me ask something else though...if Coors is really that different than other ballparks, and Rockies' players play 81 games a year there, isn't it conceivable that their production could actually suffer more on the road than other players, since there is that big disparity between Coors and all other stadiums?

 

If there is more of a variance to overcome, it seems as though that would only feed into the disparity between Coors and away from Coors.

 

Did Matt Holiday have extreme splits when he played for the Rockies, and has that continued since he's been in St Louis?

[Buehrlesque]

No, there is something seriously wrong with the wrc+ #'s for coors...or something just really weird in general is going on. Either way wrc+ isn't a good stat to use for Rockies players. Really interesting read about it below

 

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/...or-the-rockies/

With that "drug user" angle, that article suggests that a Rockies hitters are worse on the road than would be expected for a normal player due to the Coors hangover. So Coors giveth and Coors taketh away. Yes, I would guess the bump in production at home is greater than the decrease on the road, but it's likely a player like CarGo would see his road splits improve if he moves on to a different team. Thus I don't think you can just progress pure regression based on his Rockies road splits if he's traded.

[Eminor3rd]

No, there is something seriously wrong with the wrc+ #'s for coors...or something just really weird in general is going on. Either way wrc+ isn't a good stat to use for Rockies players. Really interesting read about it below

 

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/...or-the-rockies/

 

That's evidence that players may have a hard time adjusting to the change in environment, not evidence that park factors are miscalculated in wRC+.

 

Quote straight from the article:

 

"While it is tempting to believe that the stat is not accounting for Coors Field properly, RIRF shows that the Rockies’ home wRC+ doesn’t differ terribly from the league average at home on a season-by-season basis."

 

If anything, that would suggest that the splits would normalize when the player gets into a more typical environment. Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that wRC+ does not provide an inflated number based on environment. It is specifically adjusted for environment.

[Eminor3rd]

Let me ask something else though...if Coors is really that different than other ballparks, and Rockies' players play 81 games a year there, isn't it conceivable that their production could actually suffer more on the road than other players, since there is that big disparity between Coors and all other stadiums?

 

If there is more of a variance to overcome, it seems as though that would only feed into the disparity between Coors and away from Coors.

 

Did Matt Holiday have extreme splits when he played for the Rockies, and has that continued since he's been in St Louis?

 

Matt Holliday career away: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?p...0&split=1.2

Matt Holliday career home: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?p...0&split=1.1

 

2010 was his first full season away from Coors, it does look like his Home numbers got worse and his away numbers got better.