This Team Needs Another Starting Pitcher

[NorthSideSox72]

I just remembered too, there is also Erik Johnson. He isn't a guy I'd write off yet. Not for the opening day rotation of course, but he very well could bounce back and create even more depth.

 

Still think they are missing someone more reliable for one more slot though.

 

[Eminor3rd]

No...one more acceptable than the other given his price and the fact pattern that you are talking about a potential 5th starter. Or at least more acceptable. I think far more pressing concerns are our team defense. The problem in these circumstances is these are guys we have penciled in at 4 and 5. Noesi also did show some signs of progress vs. Danks.

 

The bolded is the point. Clearly, Noesi is a more valuable member of the team because of his salary, but in terms of who is going to take the hill next, neither produces acceptable results. We can't afford for both of these guys to contribute 175+ innings. One of them can be the fifth starter that we skip whenever possible, yes.

Edited December 10, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[TheFutureIsNear]

Ryan Vogelsong really isn't a bad option I don't think. We could probably get him on a relatively cheap 1 year deal with an option or something like that. Take out the bad/injury riddled 2013 and between '11, '12 and '14 he's averaged 185 IP and an ERA of around 3.75 (advanced metrics back it up too). 2 weeks ago I would have been against a move like this, but if we really are going all out for this year Vogelsong would bring a lot of stability to the back of the rotation.

 

Of course Danks really clutters things up financially though and getting rid of at least a decent chunk of his salary could open up a lot of options. Take away Danks and our rotation is really cheap relative to other teams that will be competitive in 2014.

[Eminor3rd]

Ryan Vogelsong really isn't a bad option I don't think. We could probably get him on a relatively cheap 1 year deal with an option or something like that. Take out the bad/injury riddled 2013 and between '11, '12 and '14 he's averaged 185 IP and an ERA of around 3.75 (advanced metrics back it up too). 2 weeks ago I would have been against a move like this, but if we really are going all out for this year Vogelsong would bring a lot of stability to the back of the rotation.

 

Of course Danks really clutters things up financially though and getting rid of at least a decent chunk of his salary could open up a lot of options. Take away Danks and our rotation is really cheap relative to other teams that will be competitive in 2014.

 

I'm a little worried that his "advanced" age will lessen his likeliness to bounce back to 2012 form. That said, even his 2014 was a tick better than both of our incumbents. I think he'd be a great depth piece for the competition, but I'm not sure about a multi-year deal. Would he sign a Paulino deal, maybe, with a couple million extra bucks guaranteed?

[Balta1701]

I can't believe people wrote this post without actually considering how Noesi's season went. Yes his ERA and FIP were poor, but somehow everyone has forgotten that:

 

1. His ERA was 0.35 runs lower if all you do is focus on the time he was with the White Sox

2. Focusing on the time he was with the white sox alone isn't smart either, in his first 4 starts with the White Sox they still needed to stretch his arm out so they left him out to die in the 6th inning several times while exhausted (ERA in those starts; 5.35)

 

 

I posted this version of average fWAR by pitcher's spot in the rotation in the advanced stats forum earlier this year. You can quibble with the exact numbers a bit, but what they come up with is that on average, a #4 starter is worth about 1.5 fWAR and a #5 starter is worth about 0. In other words, if all that happened was those guys repeating their 2014 seasons, we may have a below average #4 starter, but we have an above average 5th starter, to the point where we're league average in our 4-5 starters.

 

And again, that's assuming no improvement from Noesi, which there's a good chance of happening in fWAR just by getting more innings, no improvement from Danks another year removed from surgery, and no point where Rodon replaces them.

 

And on top of that, we should very likely have above average #2 and #3 starters and if Chris Sale doesn't hit the DL we very likely have above average #1, #2, and #3 starters.

 

Noesi and Danks are not problems with this team outside of Danks being overpaid for what he produces. If you can move Danks, great, but especially factoring in Rodon, this team is well set up to have an above average starting staff. That could change if someone gets hurt obviously, but a new #4 starter isn't going to make up for Chris Sale getting hurt no matter what we do.

[Eminor3rd]

I can't believe people wrote this post without actually considering how Noesi's season went. Yes his ERA and FIP were poor, but somehow everyone has forgotten that:

 

1. His ERA was 0.35 runs lower if all you do is focus on the time he was with the White Sox

 

Which still leaves him with a bad ERA, which looks even worse when you consider it was 0.4 runs lower than his FIP over the same period.

 

The time he spent NOT on the Sox last was year was 6.1 innings.

 

2. Focusing on the time he was with the white sox alone isn't smart either, in his first 4 starts with the White Sox they still needed to stretch his arm out so they left him out to die in the 6th inning several times while exhausted (ERA in those starts; 5.35)

 

This is a possible effect, but extremely speculative. Do we have evidence he was exhausted? Also, 5.35 isn't drastically worse than 4.75 over the course of 4 starts.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I'd be more hopeful for his "continued progress" if someone could make an argument that something actually changed. Did he gain velocity or add a new pitch? Coop often fixes guys by making mechanical tweaks that improve command, yet he still walks too many dudes and gives up too many homers, which doesn't suggest improved command. He doesn't have any flukey homer or LOB or xFIP numbers to show that he maybe pitched better than his results would indicate.

Edited December 10, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Balta1701]

They have to do something about left field, unless the Samrdizja thing was just a song and dance to show the fans "they are trying"

As it stands now,

Viciedo is 4th OF

Danks is 5th OF

 

and that is a bad situation.

 

I'd flip him for Ackley if that's the best they can do.

i agree with LF being the main priority and Ackley there would be a solid upgrade, which is why I can't figure out why the Mariners would do it.

[BaconOnAStick]

In those 6.1 innings Noesi gave up an insane amount of runs. His ERA was lime 40 if I remember correctly.

[Eminor3rd]

In those 6.1 innings Noesi gave up an insane amount of runs. His ERA was lime 40 if I remember correctly.

 

He gave up 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings, which I think works out to 14.75.

 

Also, why does he get a free pass on those innings? I'm all about accepting that he changed, but what changed?

[Rowand44]

I feel the same way about the 4-5 spots in the rotation as a I do with 3b and catcher, we can definitely upgrade but I don't consider them holes either.

[BaconOnAStick]

He gave up 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings, which I think works out to 14.75.

 

Also, why does he get a free pass on those innings? I'm all about accepting that he changed, but what changed?

Because he wasn't pitching in the same capacity the White Sox have him pitching in.

 

[shysocks]

Sale - 5 WAR

Q - 4 WAR

Shark - 3 WAR

Danks + Noesi - 1 WAR

 

All of those are realistic, perhaps even pessimistic projections as to what our rotation could do next year. That's 13 WAR, which would have put us at 9th in baseball in 2014, and within 0.4 of 6th.

 

To me, that makes this rotation fine. Certainly we aren't well equipped if somebody gets hurt, but I don't know a team that is, and if any of those top 3 miss significant time we're ****ed anyway. Would I prefer if Noesi was the 6th starter? Yes, but there are too many needs that are more urgent than this.

 

I would not be opposed to a 1-year innings eater type guy, but anything beyond that would be a waste of resources.

[southsider2k5]

Which still leaves him with a bad ERA, which looks even worse when you consider it was 0.4 runs lower than his FIP over the same period.

 

The time he spent NOT on the Sox last was year was 6.1 innings.

 

 

 

This is a possible effect, but extremely speculative. Do we have evidence he was exhausted? Also, 5.35 isn't drastically worse than 4.75 over the course of 4 starts.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I'd be more hopeful for his "continued progress" if someone could make an argument that something actually changed. Did he gain velocity or add a new pitch? Coop often fixes guys by making mechanical tweaks that improve command, yet he still walks too many dudes and gives up too many homers, which doesn't suggest improved command. He doesn't have any flukey homer or LOB or xFIP numbers to show that he maybe pitched better than his results would indicate.

 

You'd have to adjust his FIP for those starts to get a true comp. He gave up a ton of base runners in those first few games because the Sox were more interested in stretching him out, versus the actual results. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise if those early starts provided a decent amount of the skew that his season is showing.

[southsider2k5]

He gave up 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings, which I think works out to 14.75.

 

Also, why does he get a free pass on those innings? I'm all about accepting that he changed, but what changed?

 

There were actual mechanical changes make by Cooper as soon as he got here. I am guessing the same ones the Sox exploited to kick his ass and get him DFA'd in the first place.

[BaconOnAStick]

Sale - 5 WAR

Q - 4 WAR

Shark - 3 WAR

Danks + Noesi - 1 WAR

 

All of those are realistic, perhaps even pessimistic projections as to what our rotation could do next year. That's 13 WAR, which would have put us at 9th in baseball in 2014, and within 0.4 of 6th.

 

To me, that makes this rotation fine. Certainly we aren't well equipped if somebody gets hurt, but I don't know a team that is, and if any of those top 3 miss significant time we're ****ed anyway. Would I prefer if Noesi was the 6th starter? Yes, but there are too many needs that are more urgent than this.

 

I would not be opposed to a 1-year innings eater type guy, but anything beyond that would be a waste of resources.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if one of Shark/Sale/Q goes a little backwards, but all 3? Yea dude, that's a little pessimistic.

 

[Quin]

I haven't seen Peavy's name thrown around anywhere, but I think I'd still like to see him return. As a 4th starter Jake would be damn nice to have.

[LittleHurt05]

I haven't seen Peavy's name thrown around anywhere, but I think I'd still like to see him return. As a 4th starter Jake would be damn nice to have.

 

No thanks. 5 years in the AL, only once did he manage an ERA of under 4 and I don't see why that would improve at age 34. He needs to stick to the pitchers parks of San Francisco and San Diego.

[Boopa1219]

I didn't know where to post this but this organization needs to sure up the catching situation. Flowers is not the long term answer.

[hogan873]

Masterson is reportedly signing with some team today. I haven't heard anything recently regarding the Sox, but you never know.

[MDWhiteSoxFan]

Masterson is reportedly signing with some team today. I haven't heard anything recently regarding the Sox, but you never know.

 

Hopefully it's us, trade Danks to whoever wants him to clear up cap. Have Noesi until he is unbearable or until Rodon is ready. Hope Masterson is back to form.

 

Also sign Medlan or Beachy

[shago]

I didn't know where to post this but this organization needs to sure up the catching situation. Flowers is not the long term answer.

I'd take Steve Lake at this point.................

[lasttriptotulsa]

No thanks. 5 years in the AL, only once did he manage an ERA of under 4 and I don't see why that would improve at age 34. He needs to stick to the pitchers parks of San Francisco and San Diego.

 

I think Peavy gets treated a little unfairly by most Sox fans. The dude overcame a serious injury and still put up numbers near identical to the numbers he put up in San Diego.

 

Time with Padres: 3.47 FIP, 1.186 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 9 K/9, 3.10 K/BB in the NL in a pitcher's park

 

Time with Sox: 3.70 FIP, 1.155 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8 K/9, 3.66 K/BB in the AL in a hitter's park

[LittleHurt05]

I think Peavy gets treated a little unfairly by most Sox fans. The dude overcame a serious injury and still put up numbers near identical to the numbers he put up in San Diego.

 

Time with Padres: 3.47 FIP, 1.186 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 9 K/9, 3.10 K/BB in the NL in a pitcher's park

 

Time with Sox: 3.70 FIP, 1.155 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8 K/9, 3.66 K/BB in the AL in a hitter's park

 

Well throughout his NL stints he has outperformed his FIP, while in the AL he has underperformed given his FIP, so I stand by my point, he needs to stick to the NL West.

 

From 2009-2013, he only stayed healthy one season, I don't think he deserves a break for that, especially given his salary. And as good as he was that one healthy season, he folded everytime he faced the Tigers that year when the Sox were actually battling for a playoff spot.

 

2003-2008 Peavy averaged 30.3 starts per season

2009-2013 Peavy averaged 21.2 starts per season

[thxfrthmmrs]

With McCarthy, Masterson and Santana gone, it's time for us to look at some high risk high reward type pitcher to compete for a spot in the rotation. Please bring us Medlen, Beachy, or Brett Andersen, in that order.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I'm all aboard the Peavy train. Choo choo.