A Race to the Middle?

[Y2Jimmy0]

This is an interesting piece from Dave Cameron: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-ou...diocrity-121014

[TheFutureIsNear]

The great thing about the MLB playoffs.....all you have to do is make it. And with our front 3 starters we have as good of shot as anyone in a 7 game series. We for sure need to add minimum 1 more at least above average bat, but I don't think there is any team in the AL that is head and shoulders better than us currently.

 

Not to mention that steamer projections team WAR is a pretty ridiculous measure to use. I get his overall point, but its still a pretty big reach for the basis of an article. Must not have much to write about.

[LDF]

 

i don't know about that.

 

the Parity as of right now is equal in all 3 division. anyone

team can surprising win the AL championshp. with that, i

hope the sox brass sees that and maybe spend a little more

for the right player. either cash or maybe players, the right

players.

[LDF]

The great thing about the MLB playoffs.....all you have to do is make it. And with our front 3 starters we have as good of shot as anyone in a 7 game series. We for sure need to add minimum 1 more at least above average bat, but I don't think there is any team in the AL that is head and shoulders better than us currently.

 

Not to mention that steamer projections team WAR is a pretty ridiculous measure to use. I get his overall point, but its still a pretty big reach for the basis of an article. Must not have much to write about.

 

you are right, come playoff, the big 3 are the major players. in the

pitching rotation. but the sox need 4 solid pitchers to help the team

to get to the playoff. the 5 pitcher being a real useable pitchers and

back up pitchers if there is an injury.

[Dick Allen]

John Smoltz on MLBN yesterday:

 

"The White Sox have to get Chris Sale in the playoffs."

 

As much as teams are trying to "copy" the Royals with their bullpen, he thinks Sale in the playoffs would be Bumgarner.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

The great thing about the MLB playoffs.....all you have to do is make it. And with our front 3 starters we have as good of shot as anyone in a 7 game series. We for sure need to add minimum 1 more at least above average bat, but I don't think there is any team in the AL that is head and shoulders better than us currently.

 

Not to mention that steamer projections team WAR is a pretty ridiculous measure to use. I get his overall point, but its still a pretty big reach for the basis of an article. Must not have much to write about.

 

Well, he's not using projected WAR to try to calculate a record, but instead as a measure of projected total "true talent" that each teams currently have. I think it makes much more sense there.

 

If you asked Cameron to predict records, he would point to projected BaseRuns records (which is a much, much better version of Pythagorean record), which very quietly got put up on their site last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

This model currently has the Sox projected for 77 wins.

[LDF]

Well, he's not using projected WAR to try to calculate a record, but instead as a measure of projected total "true talent" that each teams currently have. I think it makes much more sense there.

 

If you asked Cameron to predict records, he would point to projected BaseRuns records (which is a much, much better version of Pythagorean record), which very quietly got put up on their site last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

This model currently has the Sox projected for 77 wins.

 

i must be reading it wrong, i thought i saw 85 wins.

the difference between 1 and the sox in a net of 3 wins

difference.

[Eminor3rd]

i must be reading it wrong, i thought i saw 85 wins.

the difference between 1 and the sox in a net of 3 wins

difference.

 

I think you were looking at the wrong column -- it shows 85 losses, 77-85.

[LDF]

I think you were looking at the wrong column -- it shows 85 losses, 77-85.

 

 

how crap. i stand corrected.

 

[gatnom]

 

how crap. i stand corrected.

 

I prefer the way you look at it.

 

 

[gatnom]

Well, he's not using projected WAR to try to calculate a record, but instead as a measure of projected total "true talent" that each teams currently have. I think it makes much more sense there.

 

If you asked Cameron to predict records, he would point to projected BaseRuns records (which is a much, much better version of Pythagorean record), which very quietly got put up on their site last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

This model currently has the Sox projected for 77 wins.

 

Obviously, this is an extremely small nit to pick, but I find it interesting that BaseRuns is giving Erik Johnson 103 IP as a starter, Michael Ynoa 25 IP as a reliever, and completely not projecting any contribution from Rodon (probably due to lack of stats to project). Also worth noting, we're giving Matt Davidson 150 PA at 3B, though he's projected for more WAR than the 350 PA we're projected to give Leury Garcia.

 

 

[Dunt]

Of course team WAR isnt going to like the Sox, their isnt much in terms of defensive value outside Alexei and Eaton and Eaton isn't even looked upon kindly defensively.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Wouldn't it be awesome if Matt Davidson could be that 1B/3B to spell Gillaspie/LaRoche against LHP?

[Eminor3rd]

Obviously, this is an extremely small nit to pick, but I find it interesting that BaseRuns is giving Erik Johnson 103 IP as a starter, Michael Ynoa 25 IP as a reliever, and completely not projecting any contribution from Rodon (probably due to lack of stats to project). Also worth noting, we're giving Matt Davidson 150 PA at 3B, though he's projected for more WAR than the 350 PA we're projected to give Leury Garcia.

 

Yeah, I mean those are the "grains of salt" we have to take these projections with. I think it's more useful to look at these projected standings in a relative sense than to get caught up in the actual numbers. What this tells us, essentially, is that there are still a lot of teams that look better than us. If one year of Samardzija is going to make sense, we need to make a couple more upgrades yet.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Kyyle23]

John Smoltz on MLBN yesterday:

 

"The White Sox have to get Chris Sale in the playoffs."

 

As much as teams are trying to "copy" the Royals with their bullpen, he thinks Sale in the playoffs would be Bumgarner.

 

I hope he is right, but you just never know. Who would have thought Kershaw would get roughed up in the playoffs?

[flavum]

Wouldn't it be awesome if Matt Davidson could be that 1B/3B to spell Gillaspie/LaRoche against LHP?

 

Yes, it would be. Too bad he stunk.

 

I'd be curious to know if his defense was adequate this year.

[flavum]

I hope he is right, but you just never know. Who would have thought Kershaw would get roughed up in the playoffs?

 

Plus as much as Sale is incredible, he has tended to tail off late in the season and the Indians kill him a lot. He's great, but he's not done getting better.

[AlSoxfan]

I'm sorry but I can't believe for a sec. that we're only good enough for 77 wins. Am I being to much the Homie fan? I think Hahn made some pretty shrewd moves an improved us to at least a better than 500 club. and with a good yr. I really believe we can compete for the central or at least a wild card spot. I think we still need a left fielder at least but otherwise I'll take my chances with this team.

[Whisox05]

I'm sorry but I take some projections with a grain of salt. I can guarantee you that no one projected the world series last year would have the royals and giants in it. To me you can project things a bit better when games are being played but look at the A's having a lead and looking like favorites until the faltered down the stretch. There is also teams that surprise every year or teams that are supposed to win and falter. To me the biggest things that people can't project is luck and you definitely need some luck as the season to go on for things to bounce you way. But you can also have things bounce against you and nothing that you can go about it.

[Andy the Clown]

I'm sorry but I can't believe for a sec. that we're only good enough for 77 wins. Am I being to much the Homie fan? I think Hahn made some pretty shrewd moves an improved us to at least a better than 500 club. and with a good yr. I really believe we can compete for the central or at least a wild card spot. I think we still need a left fielder at least but otherwise I'll take my chances with this team.

 

We still have MAJOR holes at LF, 2B, and C. Hence the statistical pessimism.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm sorry but I can't believe for a sec. that we're only good enough for 77 wins. Am I being to much the Homie fan? I think Hahn made some pretty shrewd moves an improved us to at least a better than 500 club. and with a good yr. I really believe we can compete for the central or at least a wild card spot. I think we still need a left fielder at least but otherwise I'll take my chances with this team.

 

 

I'm sorry but I take some projections with a grain of salt. I can guarantee you that no one projected the world series last year would have the royals and giants in it. To me you can project things a bit better when games are being played but look at the A's having a lead and looking like favorites until the faltered down the stretch. There is also teams that surprise every year or teams that are supposed to win and falter. To me the biggest things that people can't project is luck and you definitely need some luck as the season to go on for things to bounce you way. But you can also have things bounce against you and nothing that you can go about it.

 

Yeah, I'll reiterate my last post:

 

Yeah, I mean those are the "grains of salt" we have to take these projections with. I think it's more useful to look at these projected standings in a relative sense than to get caught up in the actual numbers. What this tells us, essentially, is that there are still a lot of teams that look better than us. If one year of Samardzija is going to make sense, we need to make a couple more upgrades yet.

 

Speaking to the broader issue, though, is that this team has some serious weaknesses. Offensively, we've got "black holes" in LF and C, and are expecting regression from 3B and probably SS. Garcia in RF is a HUGE question mark -- we assume he's going to hit, but he hasn't yet. Defensively, we're still a rather bad team. Both OF corners are completely ridiculous defenders, both IF corners are just a notch better, and our CF is probably overrated. The rotation falls straight off a cliff after Quintana at 3, where our two best options had ERAs near 5 last year. We all hope Rodon will save one of those slots, but he isn't going to show up until May at the earliest, and it isn't safe to assume he's going to be a star right out of the gate.

 

There's still a lot of work to do if this team is going to "project" to be in the hunt. We certainly have enough talent today to luck ourselves into the race if everything goes well, but I'd like to think Hahn has a better plan than that.

[BlackSox13]

I'm sorry but I can't believe for a sec. that we're only good enough for 77 wins. Am I being to much the Homie fan? I think Hahn made some pretty shrewd moves an improved us to at least a better than 500 club. and with a good yr. I really believe we can compete for the central or at least a wild card spot. I think we still need a left fielder at least but otherwise I'll take my chances with this team.

No kidding! Robertson, Duke and LaRoche only amount to four wins? That's harsh.

 

Like others have said, take it with a grain of salt.

[gatnom]

Yeah, I'll reiterate my last post:

 

 

 

Speaking to the broader issue, though, is that this team has some serious weaknesses. Offensively, we've got "black holes" in LF and C, and are expecting regression from 3B and probably SS. Garcia in RF is a HUGE question mark -- we assume he's going to hit, but he hasn't yet. Defensively, we're still a rather bad team. Both OF corners are completely ridiculous defenders, both IF corners are just a notch better, and our CF is probably overrated. The rotation falls straight off a cliff after Quintana at 3, where our two best options had ERAs near 5 last year. We all hope Rodon will save one of those slots, but he isn't going to show up until May at the earliest, and it isn't safe to assume he's going to be a star right out of the gate.

 

There's still a lot of work to do if this team is going to "project" to be in the hunt. We certainly have enough talent today to luck ourselves into the race if everything goes well, but I'd like to think Hahn has a better plan than that.

 

It's funny how close yet how far we seem at the same time. Finding an upgrade to Viciedo and having Rodon pitch like a middle of the rotation type of starter would go a long way to bridging that gap. I want to say I'm optimistic about Sanchez/Johnson and Garcia, but I just kind of have a bad feeling about those 2 positions for this year, which doesn't leave much room for error.

 

 

[flavum]

It's funny how close yet how far we seem at the same time. Finding an upgrade to Viciedo and having Rodon pitch like a middle of the rotation type of starter would go a long way to bridging that gap. I want to say I'm optimistic about Sanchez/Johnson and Garcia, but I just kind of have a bad feeling about those 2 positions for this year, which doesn't leave much room for error.

 

The way Micah Johnson was flying through the system, and would have had a September callup, they must be pretty confident he can be a big leaguer soon.

 

The schedule is heavily weighted with division games the first 5 weeks of the season, so it's going to be important to field the best team off the bat and get to winning.

[elrockinMT]

a real bullpen in 2015 anchored by a real closer will translate into more than 4 wins alone. From this story it seems yhe Debbie Downers are already out