"Don't Stop Now, Boys!"

[Lillian]

Allow me to reiterate some things that I've recently posted in another thread:

 

I have a feeling that Mr. Reinsdorf has not spent all of the money that he is willing to spend. The team payroll may be at around $112 Million, but they don't really have that much committed, longer term.

Again, the only long term money that has been committed this off season is to Robertson. Samardjiza is a one year (so far), LaRoche is 2 years, Duke is 3 and now Melky 3 years. The core is all

still either a ways from free agency, or signed to team friendly deals.

 

If J. R. wants to go for it, he can't continue to spend like the mid market teams. He was willing to take the payroll up to around $130 Million, as recently as 2011.

The revenues are higher, and teams are spending even more now. He isn't getting any younger, sees a division with no team uncatchable, and he has the nucleus of a group that isn't that far away.

While Sale, Q., "Shark", Abreu, Robertson, LaRoche and Cabrera are in the fold, and Rodon coming, this may be his best shot at winning another World Series, or two, providing he is willing to take that

payroll up to around $140 Million.

 

We have seen the front office cry poor, in recent years, only to then spend beyond expectations. I just have a hunch that we may be at such a juncture again. Well, I'm hoping, anyway.

I recently speculated that perhaps the thought process has been something like the following: Mr. Reinsdorf told the guys in the front office that he would let them take the payroll back up to around

$100 Million, and then see what kind of a team they had assembled, and how close they were to building a real contender? Once having achieved that, he would keep an open mind about going over that

mark, providing they had a real chance to grab a "ring".

 

I always adhere to the principle that it's pitching that wins championships, and this team is now one more big RH starter from having the best pitching in baseball. That would be a very strong argument

to present to the Chairman of the Board: "Mr. Reinsdorf, we believe that we are one piece away from having the most dominating pitching in our Division, our League, and all of baseball. If you are

willing to spend the money to bring in Max Scherzer, we are confident that we can take "all the marbles". We have sufficiently upgraded the offense, to score enough runs to win, with our pitching.

The bullpen is now solid, and should be able to preserve the wins that our dominating starters can earn. This may be an extraordinary opportunity to seriously contend, for the next 3 to 4 years."

 

I think that they would have a good argument, and I wouldn't be surprised if J. R. would agree. In other words, as "Balta" suggests; first you put together all of the rest of the pieces, and then if that

high priced free agent puts you over the top, you pull the trigger. Oh sure, there are still places that this team could upgrade, but no team is solid at every position. With that pitching, they would have

enough other pieces to win.

 

What team could compete with that rotation? Sale, Scherzer, Quintana and Samardjiza is as good of a balanced, dominating, 1 - 4 pitching staff as I can ever remember.

By next year, Rodon should be a fixture, so that resigning Samardjiza would not be critical, and if he does stay you have the best pitching, projected out another 2 or 3 years. And finally, remember that

these long term contracts can be moved, especially if they are constructed properly. Of course, that is providing the player doesn't get injured or suddenly lose his ability to perform. Why not offer Scherzer

7 years; the first 4 years at $30 Million per year, and the last 3 at $20 Million? That’s $180 Million, and makes the contract “movable,” in the later years, albeit with some cash likely thrown in.

 

Well, K. W. said that they want "Sox fans to be able to dream again". That team would certainly have us all dreaming. More than that, it would give the rest of the League nightmares.

So, to quote the "Hawk"; "Don't stop now, boys!".

 

[hi8is]

...Max Scherzer...

 

I'd had the same logic float through my mind last night... about an hour later - I did a 180 and am now against it. Think about the future implications...

 

1.) It could potentially limit us if we are looking to extend Sale / Abreu in a few years.

 

2.) It could potentially prevent us from extending Shark.

 

3.) We have a potential cost effective front line starter in Rodon close to coming in.

 

4.) Scherzer is likely going to be paid like an ace for 4 years of decline.

 

5.) The starting pitching market in 1 more year for FA is much more robust.

 

[AlSoxfan]

I'd had the same logic float through my mind last night... about an hour later - I did a 180 and am now against it. Think about the future implications...

 

1.) It could potentially limit us if we are looking to extend Sale / Abreu in a few years.

 

2.) It could potentially prevent us from extending Shark.

 

3.) We have a potential cost effective front line starter in Rodon close to coming in.

 

4.) Scherzer is likely going to be paid like an ace for 4 years of decline.

 

5.) The starting pitching market in 1 more year for FA is much more robust.

As much as I'd like Max you're 100% correct. We haven't won anything yet and might need to upgrade a few positions next yr. as well. Don't spend it all just yet

[SoxAce]

Max is going to take a serious discount to pitch for us cause he loves the white sox and stuff.

[Chisoxfn]

Max is going to take a serious discount to pitch for us cause he loves the white sox and stuff.

Only way we sign Max is if the market dries up and he's out there looking for a 1 year deal and is going to go back through the whole process again next year. Extremely risky on his end, but he certainly wouldn't be the first Boras client to have to go that route.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's the thing about all this spending: there's only one signing that "mortgaged" the future at all, and that's Robertson. IMO, Hahn's model of sustained winning is still in play. Even in the Samardzija deal, you figure that with a midseason trade or, if things go well, qualifying offer pick, Hahn will get back much of the value he gave up. It was Semien and a bunch of prospects that didn't even crack the top ten in a weak system.

 

Essentially, Hahn is doing everything he possibly can to win SO LONG AS it doesn't affect the future. Scherzer would most definitely affect the future, so I don't think there's any chance we get him. The plan now is just to get better every year, not to "push the chips in" and go for broke when the iron feels hot.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Chisoxfn]

Here's the thing about all this spending: there's only one signing that "mortgaged" the future at all, and that's Robertson. IMO, Hahn's model of sustained winning is still in play. Even in the Samardzija deal, you figure that with a midseason trade or, if things go well, qualifying offer pick, Hahn will get back much of the value he gave up. It was Semien and a bunch of prospects that didn't even crack the top ten in a weak system.

 

Essentially, Hahn is doing everything he possibly can to win SO LONG AS it doesn't affect the future. Scherzer would most definitely affect the future, so I don't think there's any chance we get him. The plan now is just to get better every year, not to "push the chips in" and go for broke when the iron feels hot.

Great post and I agree. We also still have significant chips to buy at some of the key positions where we might not have internal candidates (e.g. 3B / C). I also think that my overall view becomes much more positive if we are able to land Shark to a contract.

[almagest]

Great post and I agree. We also still have significant chips to buy at some of the key positions where we might not have internal candidates (e.g. 3B / C). I also think that my overall view becomes much more positive if we are able to land Shark to a contract.

Agreed. Losing Semien could really hurt, especially since we're relatively weak at second base (for now - one of Saladino/Sanchez/Johnson could fill in nicely, but I don't have much faith right now in any of them). If we don't resign Samardzija, I feel like this trade is a definite loss.

 

Of course, this assumes Semien reaches the potential he showed late last year and in the minors.

Edited December 15, 2014 by almagest

[Bob Sacamano]

Agreed. Losing Semien could really hurt, especially since we're relatively weak at second base (for now - one of Saladino/Sanchez/Johnson could fill in nicely, but I don't have much faith right now in any of them). If we don't resign Samardzija, I feel like this trade is a definite loss.

 

Of course, this assumes Semien reaches the potential he showed late last year and in the minors.

 

It'd be tough to call it a loss because we would gain a draft pick and it would turn out how he performs throughout his career too

[Whisox05]

I'd had the same logic float through my mind last night... about an hour later - I did a 180 and am now against it. Think about the future implications...

 

1.) It could potentially limit us if we are looking to extend Sale / Abreu in a few years.

 

2.) It could potentially prevent us from extending Shark.

 

3.) We have a potential cost effective front line starter in Rodon close to coming in.

 

4.) Scherzer is likely going to be paid like an ace for 4 years of decline.

 

5.) The starting pitching market in 1 more year for FA is much more robust.

 

Technically it wouldn't stop the sox from trying to extend sale or abreu. Both of their contracts come up at the 2019. Quintana comes up at the end of the 2018 season. The way hahn has added the free agents so far this offseason has all of their contracts coming off at the end of 2018. If danks, Laroche and ramirez all come off their contracts when they are supposed to that's 37+ million coming off at the end of 2016 season. If they get ride of some of them sooner then we save sooner. Duke and cabrera come off the books then at the end 2017 season with 19+ million. Add in the 13 for Robertson coming of at the end of 2018 that's basically 70 million coming off the books between the end of the 2016 season till 2018. Sox will have money then

Edited December 15, 2014 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Balta1701]

Technically it wouldn't stop the sox from trying to extend sale or abreu. Both of their contracts come up at the 2019. Quintana comes up at the end of the 2018 season. The way hahn has added the free agents so far this offseason has all of their contracts coming off at the end of 2018. If danks, Laroche and ramirez all come off their contracts when they are supposed to that's 37+ million coming off at the end of 2016 season. If they get ride of some of them sooner then we save sooner. Duke and cabrera come off the books then at the end 2017 season with 19+ million. Add in the 13 for Robertson coming of at the end of 2018 that's basically 70 million coming off the books between the end of the 2016 season till 2018. Sox will have money then

That's not true. Quintana has options that will take him through the end of 2020.

[GreenSox]

There's a 90% chance that the Samardizja trade will be a net loss from a personnel standpoint. Rents usually are. You benefit now but pay more later. That's why I don't like them. Still this one went about as well as they can. Sox might reap indirect benefits such as more ticket sales, more interest and an ability to get preference in trying to sign him.

 

Semien was no cinch to excel at 2B himself. We have 3 candidates. Hopefully one will do adequately and they should be able to handle the position defensively. Teams do need young players.

 

We got our Scherzer: Samardiza and then Rodon. Maybe they'll sign Samardizja and we'll get both. Scherzer wouldn't give near as much marginal value to this team as even Melky will.

 

Right now you can make an argument for a cheap starter and cheap 4th OF.

Giving prospects for upgrades at C (and it's dubious whether the names thrown about are upgrades anyway) and 3B isn't worth it. Those positions are average right now. Could improve.

Edited December 15, 2014 by GreenSox

[Whisox05]

That's not true. Quintana has options that will take him through the end of 2020.

 

I missed the options then only caught the free agent in 2019

[southsider2k5]

There's a 90% chance that the Samardizja trade will be a net loss from a personnel standpoint. Rents usually are. You benefit now but pay more later. That's why I don't like them. Still this one went about as well as they can. Sox might reap indirect benefits such as more ticket sales, more interest and an ability to get preference in trying to sign him.

 

Semien was no cinch to excel at 2B himself. We have 3 candidates. Hopefully one will do adequately and they should be able to handle the position defensively. Teams do need young players.

 

We got our Scherzer: Samardiza and then Rodon. Maybe they'll sign Samardizja and we'll get both. Scherzer wouldn't give near as much marginal value to this team as even Melky will.

 

Right now you can make an argument for a cheap starter and cheap 4th OF.

Giving prospects for upgrades at C (and it's dubious whether the names thrown about are upgrades anyway) and 3B isn't worth it. Those positions are average right now. Could improve.

 

Without knowing if an extension lurks, this is a ridiculous number.

[VAfan]

Scherzer definitely would help improve the regular season record, and that would help make the playoffs. But this last offseason proved that the team with the best starting pitching in either league didn't even appear in the World Series, much less win it.

 

With the resources you would devote to Scherzer spent elsewhere, you might end up with a much stronger overall team.

[caulfield12]

Doesn't feel like the right time.

 

Tanaka was a situation where you had a potential ace at age 25 or 26...in the prime of his career, like Abreu.

 

With Scherzer, it almost feels guaranteed you'll see an injury or drop-off sooner rather than later. It's just too big a risk, we've seen how the Dunn and Danks contracts alone have handicapped this franchise for the past couple of seasons.

 

As mentioned, with everyone we've brought on, other than Robertson, those risks are limited to a 2-3 year window, which is the prudent thing to do.

 

Best guess is the FO thinking has to be to get to June/July and then the "all-in" move will come at that time to try to make a push for the playoffs/World Series in 2015 if everything breaks right. That would give us another 3-4 months to assess where all of our top prospects are....how Rodon's adjusting....and how guys like Gillaspie, A.Garcia, Flowers and whoever's playing 2B are adjusting. Depending on our place in the standings, you start thinking about who you want to hold onto for 2016 and who you want to trade. That seems a lot more prudent move to make than putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

I haven't done the exact math, but if you add up Duke/LaRoche/Robertson/Samardzija/Me.Cabrera you're still not even touching the overall package of what Scherzer will receive. I have my doubts that someone can argue that Scherzer would/will make more of an impact individually than all of those players collectively. If it was a year ago and Max looked like one of the top 3-5 pitchers in baseball, you could at least make an argument. That time has passed, where you're paying for 2012-13 Scherzer but not getting that same pitcher back for your investment.

 

[LDF]

Doesn't feel like the right time.

 

Tanaka was a situation where you had a potential ace at age 25 or 26...in the prime of his career, like Abreu.

 

With Scherzer, it almost feels guaranteed you'll see an injury or drop-off sooner rather than later. It's just too big a risk, we've seen how the Dunn and Danks contracts alone have handicapped this franchise for the past couple of seasons.

 

As mentioned, with everyone we've brought on, other than Robertson, those risks are limited to a 2-3 year window, which is the prudent thing to do.

 

Best guess is the FO thinking has to be to get to June/July and then the "all-in" move will come at that time to try to make a push for the playoffs/World Series in 2015 if everything breaks right. That would give us another 3-4 months to assess where all of our top prospects are....how Rodon's adjusting....and how guys like Gillaspie, A.Garcia, Flowers and whoever's playing 2B are adjusting. Depending on our place in the standings, you start thinking about who you want to hold onto for 2016 and who you want to trade. That seems a lot more prudent move to make than putting all your eggs in one basket.

 

I haven't done the exact math, but if you add up Duke/LaRoche/Robertson/Samardzija/Me.Cabrera you're still not even touching the overall package of what Scherzer will receive. I have my doubts that someone can argue that Scherzer would/will make more of an impact individually than all of those players collectively. If it was a year ago and Max looked like one of the top 3-5 pitchers in baseball, you could at least make an argument. That time has passed, where you're paying for 2012-13 Scherzer but not getting that same pitcher back for your investment.

 

i have been thinking about Scherzer, but at what cost?? i do not want the sox to

be handcuff with a huge contract. at least 6 yrs and knowing his agent, try something

like 30 mil a yr. too much.

 

i have been mentioning about getting Cueto, Leake, Zimmerman. the sox can get to trade

some of their 2nd tier prospects that they have.

[Lillian]

Another way to think about the potential of adding Scherzer is to consider the difference between his resigning with the Tigers, or with us.

How would you like our chances of taking the Division with our current staff, and Detroit having a staff with Scherzer back in their rotation?

Then, think about our prospects if the Sox signed him. Of course, he may not sign with either club, but it just provides another perspective.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

Another way to think about the potential of adding Scherzer is to consider the difference between his resigning with the Tigers, or with us.

How would k*** our chances of taking the Division with our current staff, and Detroit having a staff with Scherzer back in their rotation?

Then, think about our prospects if the Sox signed him. Of course, he may not sign with either club, but it just provides another perspective.

 

I think if you're talking about the difference between Victor Martinez OR Miguel Cabrera on the White Sox or Tigers (from 2011-2014)...or Kotsay/Jones versus Thome on the Twins....or back to 2003 when any team in the AL Central could have signed Kenny Rogers on the cheap, it would make sense.

 

In this case, we'd be better off if Scherzer signed the 2nd biggest contract in the sports and the Tigers ended up stuck with another exploding contract on the back end.

 

The White Sox can't afford to be on the wrong side of that kind of contract, not unless they had all those PROJECTED 2019 new television dollars coming in.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Like that you're thinking big Lillian. However there's a reason Hahn han't traded Montas ,Danish and Adams. Of course there's also Rodon. That 2-4 year window is right when we should get some idea if Rodon , Montas Danish and Adams will amount to quality starting pitchers . Those guys are the Sox best hope at continuing on a winning path without breaking the bank.

Edited December 16, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[hi8is]

... get some idea if Rodon , Montas Danish and Adams will amount to quality starting pitchers . Those guys are the Sox best hope at continuing on a winning path...

It's great that we even are having that conversation. I mean, when was the last time we had so many fringe to awesome starting pitching prospects?

 

[Lillian]

Well, to answer my own question, if Detroit has a starting staff of Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, Price and Greene, I think they win the Division. The Sox would likely be several games behind in the standings,

with Sale, Samardjiza, Quintana, Danks and Noesi. We all seem confident that Rodon will not pitch more than a total of 120 or 130 innings, and we don't know how many of those will be in the Minors,

nor how he will perform.

 

I will say that the Tigers would still have to shore up their bullpen, however that is probably going to happen, before much longer.

[Lemon_44]

Instead of Scherzer, I think I would offer up a 4 year deal to Shields for around 75-80 mill. This would offer the protection of having a strong RHP still in the rotation if Shark would bolt after 1 year. Also, IF they could deal Danks, that would offset much of Shields's cost for the first couple years.

 

If they would re-sign Shark, a rotation of Sale, Shark, Q, Shields, and Rodon hurling the next 3-5 years doesn't sound too shabby. By then, all the youngsters should be more than ready too.