Are we really that good?

[bmags]

I'm not sure cardboard is the highest quality paper you could have reached for.

[LittleHurt05]

White Sox have been paper champions a lot of years. I'd like this to be the year they take it. BUt we haven't earned being the favorites.

 

They were paper champions nearly the entire KW era.

[StrangeSox]

I'm not sure cardboard is the highest quality paper you could have reached for.

lol

[StrangeSox]

Another thing that annoys me is that there's no "1 sigma" margin of error posted and since this is a prediction stat you ought to actually be able to calculate that for every season.

yep, error bars/ranges would be very helpful for these sorts of stats.

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox still aren't very good.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...very-good-team/

[thxfrthmmrs]

Exactly, and that's why it makes sense to use the aggregate as a frame of reference rather than get caught up in the specifics. That's what math is really good at: macro-level trends. At the end of the year, you'll be able to go through and find all kinds of outlier players that the system missed on, but as a whole, it's going to be pretty damn accurate.

 

It's a macro-level frame of reference, based on the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't call it pretty damn accurate. It's accurate in the sense that the system will produce 1,000 WARs in a season, and there will be a large subset of players producing around their most likely outcome, but like you mention there will be outliers, and major ones at that, it happens more than the system would expect to. Every year, there are a fair number of likes of Ben Zobrist, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber that comes along and completely skews the curve, and Clayton Kershaw or Mike Trout have that potential to beat their projection by a lot, even though they are projected to be amongst the best. The projection system lacks the visibility to see those breakouts.

 

At the end of the year, the difference in total WAR value between the best team and the worst team will be a lot greater than 10, because the number of minor/major positive outliers on a team does not equal to its minor/major negative outliers. I think the Sox would be one of those teams that will have more positive outliers than negative ones.

[Balta1701]

At the end of the year, the difference in total WAR value between the best team and the worst team will be a lot greater than 10, because the number of minor/major positive outliers on a team does not equal to its minor/major negative outliers. I think the Sox would be one of those teams that will have more positive outliers than negative ones.

I plotted this up at the end of last season. If your team was in the range of 40 WAR you were extremely likely to be a playoff team. If your team was in the range of 20 WAR you were about the worst in the league.

 

So...by my count, if we were at 28+ in a setup that seems extremely likely to underestimate where the team actually sits...that's a solid place to be.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I plotted this up at the end of last season. If your team was in the range of 40 WAR you were extremely likely to be a playoff team. If your team was in the range of 20 WAR you were about the worst in the league.

 

I did as well. I like WAR as a rating system, but I take these WAR projections with a huge grain of salt. Having WAR in the 40 range would mean you're an 88 + win team, and in the 20's says you'll win around 70 games.

 

FWIW Sox ended up with 24 WARs last year, and they end up winning 73 games, so I think it's a pretty good indicator.

[shipps]

The White Sox still aren't very good.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...very-good-team/

 

Good read. Brings the optimism down a notch but even he admits that the Sox have put themselves in the position to have a shot that they would not have had before. Give yourself a shot and its pretty much a crap shoot from there.

[Chisoxfn]

Good read. Brings the optimism down a notch but even he admits that the Sox have put themselves in the position to have a shot that they would not have had before. Give yourself a shot and its pretty much a crap shoot from there.

Pretty much sums up a lot of my posts, especially the one about us being legit world series contenders...if we can make the playoffs. Our team is well built for the post-season...less so about making the playoffs. We have a chance, but to call us favorites would be misleading.

[fathom]

I'm honestly shocked by all the pessimism in this thread.

[LDF]

This reads as complete satire.

 

but i like his optimism.

[bmags]

Pretty much sums up a lot of my posts, especially the one about us being legit world series contenders...if we can make the playoffs. Our team is well built for the post-season...less so about making the playoffs. We have a chance, but to call us favorites would be misleading.

 

Yeah, I think it's people talking past each other. That article puts us at adding 9 WAR, which, imperfect I know, puts us at 82 wins. Thaaaaat's pretty much what everyone has us pegged for.

 

On the other hand, there's an excitement now for me I haven't felt since 2004-5 offseason. Are we good enough that great pitching can carry us? I think we are good enough that if things fall into place we are a playoff team. And if we are a playoff team, we have Chris Sale. And if we have Chris Sale in the playoffs, anything can happen.

[LDF]

It's a macro-level frame of reference, based on the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't call it pretty damn accurate. It's accurate in the sense that the system will produce 1,000 WARs in a season, and there will be a large subset of players producing around their most likely outcome, but like you mention there will be outliers, and major ones at that, it happens more than the system would expect to. Every year, there are a fair number of likes of Ben Zobrist, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber that comes along and completely skews the curve, and Clayton Kershaw or Mike Trout have that potential to beat their projection by a lot, even though they are projected to be amongst the best. The projection system lacks the visibility to see those breakouts.

 

At the end of the year, the difference in total WAR value between the best team and the worst team will be a lot greater than 10, because the number of minor/major positive outliers on a team does not equal to its minor/major negative outliers. I think the Sox would be one of those teams that will have more positive outliers than negative ones.

 

ref to fangraph.

 

if you don't mind using this, but cmon, the writer in the second paragraph said the sox is

not ready to win. not ready to win, what or when is any team ready to win.

 

the sox have made huge improvement and if all goes well, esp in the beginning of the season,

the sox can do extremely well.

[venom4789]

Yes we are really that good.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I don't see the Sox as a World Series contending team as this point, but they are definitely in contention for the division.

 

Detroit didn't get any better and KC won't be as good as they were last year. I see the Sox and KC fighting for 1st place next season.

[LDF]

I don't see the Sox as a World Series contending team as this point, but they are definitely in contention for the division.

 

Detroit didn't get any better and KC won't be as good as they were last year. I see the Sox and KC fighting for 1st place next season.

 

alot of things can happen between the opening day and till the end of the season.

it is going to be a great fight. i can't wait to enjoy the season.

[Balta1701]

I don't see the Sox as a World Series contending team as this point, but they are definitely in contention for the division.

 

Detroit didn't get any better and KC won't be as good as they were last year. I see the Sox and KC fighting for 1st place next season.

I agree, the White Sox are probably division title contenders but not world series contenders.

 

This is of course based on noting that last year, the 2 teams in the world series were both teams that failed to win their division and assuming that trend continues.

[Chisoxfn]

I agree, the White Sox are probably division title contenders but not world series contenders.

 

This is of course based on noting that last year, the 2 teams in the world series were both teams that failed to win their division and assuming that trend continues.

I see us as the exact opposite. If we make the playoffs, I think we are as good as anyone else, since two of our biggest flaws, are the 4th and 5th starter spot, which go away when you make the playoffs. I think we are, in our current construction, built to have playoff success. However, while I think we can be a playoff team, I don't think we are necessarily someone I would project as making the playoffs.

[Balta1701]

I see us as the exact opposite. If we make the playoffs, I think we are as good as anyone else, since two of our biggest flaws, are the 4th and 5th starter spot, which go away when you make the playoffs. I think we are, in our current construction, built to have playoff success. However, while I think we can be a playoff team, I don't think we are necessarily someone I would project as making the playoffs.

There was a bit of sarcasm in my reply that I'm not sure was caught.

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

There is so much that can happen between now and the playoffs. One wild card with any team in any sport is whether the younger players develop faster, about the same, or slower than expected in any given year. One never knows that until the season is well underway. Conceivably, you could have a playoff rotation of Sales, Samardzija, and Quintana taking 2 starts a piece and Rodon in full rookie bloom taking the other start in a 7 game series. The bullpen also would feature a proven and top quality closer, two quality lefties, and a bunch of young arms who really put things together. It also is possible that a Montas could play a role of a Bobby Jenks style reliever come August through October.

 

Again, on the offensive end of things, it all depends on how some of the younger and upcoming stars perform. Right now, we don't know if they are going to be very good or down right nasty in the potency of their offensive production.

 

[Reddy]

May have been posted already, but:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...very-good-team/

 

this is literally Jake's post.

 

Jake are you Jeff Sullivan?

Edited December 16, 2014 by Reddy

[BaconOnAStick]

You don't think Jeff Sullivan reads fan forums? The dude was on Lookout Landing for quite a while.

[Eminor3rd]

I did as well. I like WAR as a rating system, but I take these WAR projections with a huge grain of salt. Having WAR in the 40 range would mean you're an 88 + win team, and in the 20's says you'll win around 70 games.

 

FWIW Sox ended up with 24 WARs last year, and they end up winning 73 games, so I think it's a pretty good indicator.

 

I'm not talking about WAR, I'm talking about the top projection systems and what they say about players. If you add up WAR and guess records, you're going to be way off. Everyone agrees with this.

[Reddy]

From the comments of the Jake Sullivan article:

Looked up White Sox 2014 vs Steamer:

WAR2014-Steamer

Abreu 5.3-3.7

Quintana 5.3-2.4

Flowers 1.8-.8

Alexei 3.3-2.3

Eaton 2.7-2.2

Melky 2.6-1.8

Sale 5.4-4.7

Robertson 1.7-1.0

Duke 1.3-.5

Danks .8-.4

Gillaspie 1.2-1.0

 

That is 10.6 wins right there. The only regular projected to improve from 2014 is Garcia: -0.4-1.0, which is mainly due to injuries last year.

 

No idea what could cause an entire team to project to regress that hard, or if it is something that can be found for nearly every team.

 

 

Excellent point. I'm excited to see what ZIPs has to say in comparison to Steamer.