Are we really that good?

[thxfrthmmrs]

I'm not talking about WAR, I'm talking about the top projection systems and what they say about players. If you add up WAR and guess records, you're going to be way off. Everyone agrees with this.

 

To which I said in the other post how these projection systems are extremely conservative and projects the most likely outcome, but rarely predicts well with breakout seasons. I believe the Sox will have more players who are positive outliers compared to the projections.

 

I wasn't advocating to look at WAR to predict team record, but I believe it's a good indicator of team success. And FWIW, the average variance of last season's record for all teams compared to team WAR total is 4.3 wins, which might be better than some of the beat writers' projections.

[caulfield12]

No offense Wite, but pass whatever you are sniffing. 2 WAR starter for a guy who was drafted last year is an incredibly unrealistic expectation for him, imo. Could he do it, certainly, but to do something like that, being drafted all of 6 months ago, is an extremely tough feat. I think for this year, we could look at Rodon as a guy who could hold is own in the 4th / 5th spot, while flashing some of that upside (and also getting hit at times).

 

 

What did Kip Wells do in 1989? I think that would be pretty realistic...someone who comes on in the 2nd half of the season and makes a big impact. Bigger than McCarthy in 2005 at least (and we arguably wouldn't have won the Central without him IMO.)

[Chicago White Sox]

So let me get this straight, our 1-2-3 combined for 14.8 WAR last year but this projection system is projecting 10 total WAR for them next year?

 

And our superstar 1B who put up a 5.3 WAR season last year despite health/conditioning issues is only projected for a 3.7 WAR season?

 

I get how these projection systems work, but I personally find those numbers to be atrocious.

[ptatc]

White Sox have been paper champions a lot of years. I'd like this to be the year they take it. BUt we haven't earned being the favorites.

I recall this differently. I recall the Sox consistently outperforming these projection. The reason usally given was that it always assumed a certain level of pitching injuries and the Sox have been one of the healthiest.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Cubs have 12/1 odds with 4 proven players on their team lol

Aren't odds partially based on what kind of money is being bet on them ? If so that means there's just a lot of Cubs fans throwing money around.

[Balta1701]

If that system is projecting the White Sox to be down 10.6 wins and they're over 28 wins in what it currently counts...

 

Then if the White Sox players basically wind up approximately doing what they did last year (obviously with some guys up and some guys down), that puts them close to 40 fWAR and should put them almost certainly in the playoffs. of course that would mean the "projection" of team-wide declines was wrong, but a "guys generally do what they did last year on average" projection isn't obviously that much more invalid.

[daggins]

Steamer projections are pretty basic so I am not fretting about this.

 

Like Sullivan, I want to see the ZiPS projections. I don't expect huge improvement but a zips projection around ~30 WAR overall would not be far-fetched.

[caulfield12]

I can just see Ventura's agent using a system like this to argue the White Sox dramatically overachieved last year.

 

Theoretically, anything's better than Phil Rogers relying on Pythagorean projections.

 

If you watched this team last year, and, specifically, that bullpen....it's hard to see the White Sox even at the most pessimistic as a .500 team and potentially 85-88 wins if everything broke right/ comparative good health, etc.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

All you guys take the fun out of being a baseball fan, My team did all it could in a short period of time to get a lot better.

 

I will impatiently wait for spring training and wildly cheer for my team. I don't care about what Steamer, Zips or Gladys Knight and the Pips say about the Sox.

 

The only projection I care about is that spring is the time for optimism.

 

What were all those projection systems and scouts saying about how Abreu would perform in his rookie season ? And guess who nailed it ? I did . A little bit of optimism combined with common sense and good health projects the Sox to be much better, which was the point of signings. I will let it unfold and enjoy it until the Sox are eliminated wether it's in the regular season or the playoffs.

 

I don't need a computer simulation or 2 years of calculus to help me root root root for the White Sox.

[caulfield12]

LOL.

 

I'll agree that the statistical side of baseball is making the "old school/traditional scouts shooting the s---" conversation a thing of the past.

 

The Hawk Harrelson School.

 

When I first became a baseball fan in the 1980's, Strat-O-Matic was the equivalent of "sabes," to use a Greg-ism.

 

Now it's like statisticians/quants and economists have created so many projection systems that they're covering themselves no matter what happens. The problem is that it's a lot easier to say why player A, B or C will fail than to say what will actually work. There's still that missing human element. Hopefully we don't or won't lose it completely.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

To which I said in the other post how these projection systems are extremely conservative and projects the most likely outcome, but rarely predicts well with breakout seasons. I believe the Sox will have more players who are positive outliers compared to the projections.

 

I wasn't advocating to look at WAR to predict team record, but I believe it's a good indicator of team success. And FWIW, the average variance of last season's record for all teams compared to team WAR total is 4.3 wins, which might be better than some of the beat writers' projections.

 

I agree with this. But this is reflected in the mean. It's just as likely to miss a breakout as it is to miss a meltdown. It simply isn't likely that the Sox will experience more of one than the other. It's possible, surely, but it's a less likely outcome.

 

The distribution of those breakouts and meltdowns is, largely, what no one can nail and why the projection systems will never accurately predict a season record for all the teams at once. But, they do a good job of putting everyone on an even playing field and showing you the average outcomes. What we should take from these is that the Sox have a lot of guys who, if they act like history shows, have shown signs that their performances were better in 2014 than they will be in 2015. It doesn't mean that they won't go undefeated and have the 25 best player performances in the Majors next year, but it's a useful piece off information that we should keep in mind.

[southsider2k5]

All you guys take the fun out of being a baseball fan, My team did all it could in a short period of time to get a lot better.

 

I will impatiently wait for spring training and wildly cheer for my team. I don't care about what Steamer, Zips or Gladys Knight and the Pips say about the Sox.

 

The only projection I care about is that spring is the time for optimism.

 

What were all those projection systems and scouts saying about how Abreu would perform in his rookie season ? And guess who nailed it ? I did . A little bit of optimism combined with common sense and good health projects the Sox to be much better, which was the point of signings. I will let it unfold and enjoy it until the Sox are eliminated wether it's in the regular season or the playoffs.

 

I don't need a computer simulation or 2 years of calculus to help me root root root for the White Sox.

 

/Hawk

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

/Hawk

 

Did they put TWTW in those sims ?

[shipps]

All you guys take the fun out of being a baseball fan, My team did all it could in a short period of time to get a lot better.

 

I will impatiently wait for spring training and wildly cheer for my team. I don't care about what Steamer, Zips or Gladys Knight and the Pips say about the Sox.

 

The only projection I care about is that spring is the time for optimism.

 

What were all those projection systems and scouts saying about how Abreu would perform in his rookie season ? And guess who nailed it ? I did . A little bit of optimism combined with common sense and good health projects the Sox to be much better, which was the point of signings. I will let it unfold and enjoy it until the Sox are eliminated wether it's in the regular season or the playoffs.

 

I don't need a computer simulation or 2 years of calculus to help me root root root for the White Sox.

 

I enjoy hearing from both sides. Traditional and saber/ new age baseball philosophy brings a healthy and interesting aspect to discussing baseball.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I enjoy hearing from both sides. Traditional and saber/ new age baseball philosophy brings a healthy and interesting aspect to discussing baseball.

Oh I agree . In the Predict the next move thread I did my own WAR calculations for the lineup before the big trades for Shark and Robertson went down when a poster said the additions so far hadn't caused him to "dream" like KW said

 

The conclusion I came to was the next signings that would enable him to "dream" wouldn't be in the lineup but a RH starting pitcher and a closer. Next thing you know BAM, the Shark and Robertson deals happened. That is the baseball talk I prefer.

[Lillian]

All you guys take the fun out of being a baseball fan, My team did all it could in a short period of time to get a lot better.

 

I will impatiently wait for spring training and wildly cheer for my team. I don't care about what Steamer, Zips or Gladys Knight and the Pips say about the Sox.

 

The only projection I care about is that spring is the time for optimism.

 

What were all those projection systems and scouts saying about how Abreu would perform in his rookie season ? And guess who nailed it ? I did . A little bit of optimism combined with common sense and good health projects the Sox to be much better, which was the point of signings. I will let it unfold and enjoy it until the Sox are eliminated wether it's in the regular season or the playoffs.

 

I don't need a computer simulation or 2 years of calculus to help me root root root for the White Sox.

 

LOVE IT!!! Eloquently stated, and very uplifting. Thanks.

[Kyyle23]

I enjoy hearing from both sides. Traditional and saber/ new age baseball philosophy brings a healthy and interesting aspect to discussing baseball.

 

Dude, they are called SABES.

 

 

 

 

Get it right

[kitekrazy]

My concern - Adam LaRoche adjusting to the AL.

 

While the team looks good on paper sometimes you can't overcome bad defense and poor fundamental. See Detroit Tigers.

 

I believe John Danks will have a much better year.

 

The more important thing is it should increase attendance.

[shipps]

Dude, they are called SABES.

 

 

 

 

Get it right

 

I totally knew that kyle . I was using the word as singular...you know as in ONE stat nerd?

[Jake]

The main question to ask is if there's something about these projections - that have little human input besides the playing time portion, which has a few errors - that makes it pessimistic towards the White Sox and not other teams?

 

This is the most likely outcome based on the metrics this group uses. You should clarify that.

 

In the medical world, I never based my conclusion on anything just one person/group says.

 

Yes - it's an ATTEMPT at finding the most likely outcome by weighting all possible outcomes. It's like setting betting odds, but a little less vulnerable to outside influence.

[witesoxfan]

I agree with this. But this is reflected in the mean. It's just as likely to miss a breakout as it is to miss a meltdown. It simply isn't likely that the Sox will experience more of one than the other. It's possible, surely, but it's a less likely outcome.

 

The distribution of those breakouts and meltdowns is, largely, what no one can nail and why the projection systems will never accurately predict a season record for all the teams at once. But, they do a good job of putting everyone on an even playing field and showing you the average outcomes. What we should take from these is that the Sox have a lot of guys who, if they act like history shows, have shown signs that their performances were better in 2014 than they will be in 2015. It doesn't mean that they won't go undefeated and have the 25 best player performances in the Majors next year, but it's a useful piece off information that we should keep in mind.

 

I just want to expound on this and point out that the Sox have a lot of high ceiling and/or young talent on the roster that is more likely to break out, but it is also the type of talent that regresses or stagnates. If Eaton or Gillaspie come back down to earth a bit next year, are we going to be surprised? If Abreu isn't quite a demigod and is merely one of the best 20 hitters in the game, are we going to be surprised? If Avisail Garcia doesn't break out like we're hoping him to..? I can go on and on. If they remain at their level, we also will not be surprised, and if some of these guys continue to improve, we will not be surprsied.

 

These projections are trying to find the most likely outcome. They are not trying to say "this is what they WILL do" and they never wil say that. Jeff Sullivan admits as much in the article, essentially stating that the Sox have a chance. What I want to point out that he may not have directly pointed out is that the Sox do have a lot of high ceiling talent. The one and the same Jeff Sullivan published this article on Melky Cabrera yesterday too. Within the article, he basically suggests that maybe we are incorrect in viewing Cabrera as a 2 WAR player and instead should view him as a 3+ WAR player, in which case the White Sox got a very good deal. Maybe he is a 2 WAR player based on removing both his injury year and his PED year. It's hard to know exactly, but that's a calculated decision. Adam LaRoche is currently projected for a 1.5 WAR season via Steamer but just two years ago he was a 3.3 WAR player and he followed that up with a 0.5 WAR season. They are projecting him to barely regress at all. We can go on and on and on.

 

There is also some evidence to suggest that the Sox have historically been underprojected via projection based systems because it assumes all teams get injured at the same rate, but the Sox have been one of the healthiest teams in the league over the past 15 years, especially with regards to their pitching staff, to the point where the difference has to be acknowledged as mere noise. Perhaps some of the difference can be made up there.

 

The bottom line is that the Sox have improved but we have no idea how much they have improved until they play the games. A conservative projection says they have more talent than they did last year but they still do not have a lot of depth. Does anybody disagree with that? Even so, if they stay healthy, and they play up to their ceilings, they could be a very good team. All we can do is watch them play the games.

[Rowand44]

If Abreu isn't quite a demigod and is merely one of the best 20 hitters in the game, are we going to be surprised?

Yes.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Yes.

 

With the damage he did last year with absolutely no talent around him, and then thinking of the talent in front of, and behind him now? Agreed.

[hogan873]

With the damage he did last year with absolutely no talent around him, and then thinking of the talent in front of, and behind him now? Agreed.

Abreu could have some insane numbers this year with Eaton and Melky in front of him and LaRoche behind to protect.

[witesoxfan]

I ultimately do not believe his numbers will be that different if not some regression. He was really, really good last year, you guys, and the track record for Cubans in their second year ultimately suggests regression of some type.