Are we really that good?

[flavum]

Scary part is that this team needs to him to breakout baaaaad. I think everyone can agree on the fact that he is the biggest wild card of the offense and it's not even close. If Avi goes .270/.330/.440 were in a lot better shape moving forward. Oh, and if his defense doesn't suck again.

 

Good call.

 

I hope he's a Magglio-level player, but we need to see what he can with 150 GS.

[bmags]

Scary part is that this team needs to him to breakout baaaaad. I think everyone can agree on the fact that he is the biggest wild card of the offense and it's not even close. If Avi goes .270/.330/.440 were in a lot better shape moving forward. Oh, and if his defense doesn't suck again.

 

Totally agree. If Avi busts, only Eaton of the MLB-ready position players we spent a lot to acquire worked out.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I honestly have no expectations for Avi, good or bad. No idea what to expect out of him in 2015.

 

I tend to agree with you here. I had been very excited about Avi until that injury last year, then I moreorless lost all my excitement for him. I obviously hope he does well next year, but have no idea what to expect. When I look at our lineup, he's a name I tend to gloss right over.

[Lillian]

Just to inject a note of optimism, regarding Avi. He is very young, very talented, and has exhibited some pretty good results, in his very limited opportunities.

I will be very surprised and disappointed if he doesn't at least put up a line like the following: .270 AVG, .325 OBP with 25 - 30 doubles, 20 - 25 homers and 80 - 85 RBI's.

He has speed and power, and if he can develop a little better plate discipline, he could be a very potent offensive weapon. He should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, hitting

behind Eaton, Cabrera, Abreu and LaRoche. But then, what the hell do I know? It does appear that the organization is extremely high on him, as were the Tigers, before he was traded.

 

 

[Vance Law]

Scary part is that this team needs to him to breakout baaaaad. I think everyone can agree on the fact that he is the biggest wild card of the offense and it's not even close. If Avi goes .270/.330/.440 were in a lot better shape moving forward. Oh, and if his defense doesn't suck again.

 

Since joining the White Sox he has hit .273/.316/.429 .745 OPS, 12 HR in 358 PAs. It is not crazy to think he can better that by getting consistent playing time next year. It would be weird if he did his best work in a September callup, 8 games in April, and 40 games after screwing and rehabbing his shoulder.

 

He has already hit pretty much league average for a corner outfielder. The hope is that he can improve on his Viciedoian defense, and with his speed and athleticism there's reason to think he can.

[bulokis]

Im not too familiar with these projections/WAR/ZIPs, but how were the Royals projected last season?

[Eminor3rd]

Avisail Garcia has never had any stint in the MLB where he had an above league average bat.

 

Dude has talent for days, but he hasn't shown us he knows how to play. He could learn and become a star, but it's not far-fetched to project him as nothing for next year at this point.

 

I want to believe, I do, but he needs to show me something.

[Vance Law]

Avisail Garcia has never had any stint in the MLB where he had an above league average bat.

 

Well, he's barely had a stint. And not a full season. Or a half season. My point was that in his cobbled together clumps of playing time with the Sox he has a 98 OPS+

[GreenSox]

Since joining the White Sox he has hit .273/.316/.429 .745 OPS, 12 HR in 358 PAs. It is not crazy to think he can better that by getting consistent playing time next year. It would be weird if he did his best work in a September callup, 8 games in April, and 40 games after screwing and rehabbing his shoulder.

 

He has already hit pretty much league average for a corner outfielder. The hope is that he can improve on his Viciedoian defense, and with his speed and athleticism there's reason to think he can.

Exactly. He's had 3 basically 6 week stints with the Sox. And through it all, he's league average. It's hard to believe that that's his ceiling.

Yes, it may take a while. That's why this "all in" idea for this season never made any sense. YOu need young players, they take time and you can't plug what was a 63 win roster (which was even worse considering that that 63 win roster had an ace starter).

 

I also don't understand the woe over the trades. yes, Davidson looks bad, but we have traded a replaceable relief pitcher for him. We traded another young pitcher for a starting YOUNG CF. WE cashed in Peavy for A Garcia (who is at worst average) plus top 100 Montas, plus slick fielding Rondon (who we'll need in 2 years or may be able to trade for a different young player).

Far prefer these trades for YOUNG players than the trades for the "proven veterans" like Swisher, Vasquez, Edwin Jackson and Teahan.

 

On a side note - I see the Dodgers are peddling Brandon League. Well, they waived Javy Guerra last year to retain that proven pitcher League. How did that work out? Great for us, as Guerra is the better pitcher now as he was then.

Edited December 18, 2014 by GreenSox

[Lillian]

Avi also had a pretty solid Winter League Season:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...&pid=541645

[Rowand44]

Exactly. He's had 3 basically 6 week stints with the Sox. And through it all, he's league average. It's hard to believe that that's his ceiling.

Yes, it may take a while. That's why this "all in" idea for this season never made any sense. YOu need young players, they take time and you can't plug what was a 63 win roster (which was even worse considering that that 63 win roster had an ace starter).

 

I also don't understand the woe over the trades. yes, Davidson looks bad, but we have traded a replaceable relief pitcher for him. We traded another young pitcher for a starting YOUNG CF. WE cashed in Peavy for A Garcia (who is at worst average) plus top 100 Montas, plus slick fielding Rondon (who we'll need in 2 years or may be able to trade for a different young player).

Far prefer these trades for YOUNG players than the trades for the "proven veterans" like Swisher, Vasquez, Edwin Jackson and Teahan.

 

On a side note - I see the Dodgers are peddling Brandon League. Well, they waived Javy Guerra last year to retain that proven pitcher League. How did that work out? Great for us, as Guerra is the better pitcher now as he was then.

How many puppies did you kill when we traded Reed, Olivo and Morse for Garcia in 04?

Edited December 18, 2014 by Rowand44

[bmags]

It doesn't matter if Reed sucks now. He had perceived value at the time, if we used that for a player who didn't pan out, it was a miss. And we just don't have the farm system to prop up misses yet.

[GreenSox]

How many puppies did you kill when we traded Reed, Olivo and Morse for Garcia in 04?

I sure didn't like it then and I wouldn't like it now. It was a bad value trade.

Nevertheless, I will continue to object to bad value trades even though that one, coupled with about 8 other moves, netted a world championship.

[GreenSox]

It doesn't matter if Reed sucks now. He had perceived value at the time, if we used that for a player who didn't pan out, it was a miss. And we just don't have the farm system to prop up misses yet.

We had HUGE wins on dealing Peavy and Santiago. Massive. They more than made up for the Reed miss.

If you trade for high ceiling prospects, you will have misses. The thing is, we didn't give up much to take a shot.

 

 

[cabiness42]

We had HUGE wins on dealing Peavy and Santiago. Massive. They more than made up for the Reed miss.

If you trade for high ceiling prospects, you will have misses. The thing is, we didn't give up much to take a shot.

 

Yeah, if you never, ever miss on a trade then you are a chicken who doesn't make enough trades and is losing out on those huge wins as well.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Avisail Garcia has never had any stint in the MLB where he had an above league average bat.

 

Dude has talent for days, but he hasn't shown us he knows how to play. He could learn and become a star, but it's not far-fetched to project him as nothing for next year at this point.

 

I want to believe, I do, but he needs to show me something.

 

He hasn't? After the trade and recall from AAA in 2013 he posted a 109 wRC+ in his 42 games with the Sox. That is also the longest continuous stint he has had in the majors.

 

I would tend to put more value and emphasis into that stint then I would in his short stints with the Tigers at age 21 or in his 38 games with the Sox last year when he was coming off a significant injury and still posted a barely below league average wRC+ of 91. Though obviously a small sample size (8 games) he did have 133 wRC+ last year at the time of his injury.

[Jake]

I'm glad this has sparked a lot of conversation. Clearly, a lot has to go right for us. Everyone knows I tend to be an optimist, so I'm not ruling out the possibility that these things do go right. But one of the keys to being a happy optimist is keeping hopes high and expectations low. My expectations low.

 

Key developments that would change the trajectory of this team:

-Noesi breaks out, Danks comes back, and/or Rodon breaks in

-Somebody at 2B is league average or better

-Putnam and Petricka prove not to be one-year flashes

-Avisail requires no learning curve or simply starts playing good defense

-Conor improves upon last season or Matt Davidson finds his way back into the fray

[oldsox]

I'm glad this has sparked a lot of conversation. Clearly, a lot has to go right for us. Everyone knows I tend to be an optimist, so I'm not ruling out the possibility that these things do go right. But one of the keys to being a happy optimist is keeping hopes high and expectations low. My expectations low.

 

Key developments that would change the trajectory of this team:

-Noesi breaks out, Danks comes back, and/or Rodon breaks in

-Somebody at 2B is league average or better

-Putnam and Petricka prove not to be one-year flashes

-Avisail requires no learning curve or simply starts playing good defense

-Conor improves upon last season or Matt Davidson finds his way back into the fray

Add to that ... Both Eaton and Melky hit around .300 with OBP around .350 (similar to 2014) and Abreu improves just a little bit (reasonable expectation), voila, the team is much better.

[Eminor3rd]

He hasn't? After the trade and recall from AAA in 2013 he posted a 109 wRC+ in his 42 games with the Sox. That is also the longest continuous stint he has had in the majors.

 

I would tend to put more value and emphasis into that stint then I would in his short stints with the Tigers at age 21 or in his 38 games with the Sox last year when he was coming off a significant injury and still posted a barely below league average wRC+ of 91. Though obviously a small sample size (8 games) he did have 133 wRC+ last year at the time of his injury.

 

I'm looking at his season lines. Always want as big a sample as possible.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I'm looking at his season lines. Always want as big a sample as possible.

 

It's really hard to look at a player's season lines when he's never had a full season or even much longer than a month at a time in the Majors.

 

August 2012 - Called up to Det

April 2013 - Sent to the minors

Mid May 2013 - Called up to Det

Early July 2013 - Sent to minors

Late July 2013 - Traded to Sox and placed in minors

Mid August 2013 - Called up to Sox

Early April 2014 - 60 day DL

Mid August 2014 - Activated

 

To me it makes very little sense to look at a full season line when a player has had that many promotions/demotions/injuries with sporadic short stretches in the Majors in between.

 

I'll stand by my notion that in the longest continuous single season stretch in the Majors, he put up a 109 wRC+. That shows me that the talent is there and I view that level of play as being the floor for him going forward.

 

If you look at his entire time with the Sox his wRC+ is 104 and in his time before his major injury it was 113. So I think it's just incredibly unfair to him to say that he has never shown to be at least a league average bat.

Edited December 18, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[witesoxfan]

I sure didn't like it then and I wouldn't like it now. It was a bad value trade.

Nevertheless, I will continue to object to bad value trades even though that one, coupled with about 8 other moves, netted a world championship.

 

Is/was this your reason for not liking the Samardzija trade?

[Eminor3rd]

It's really hard to look at a player's season lines when he's never had a full season or even much longer than a month at a time in the Majors.

 

August 2012 - Called up to Det

April 2013 - Sent to the minors

Mid May 2013 - Called up to Det

Early July 2013 - Sent to minors

Late July 2013 - Traded to Sox and placed in minors

Mid August 2013 - Called up to Sox

Early April 2014 - 60 day DL

Mid August 2014 - Activated

 

To me it makes very little sense to look at a full season line when a player has had that many promotions/demotions/injuries with sporadic short stretches in the Majors in between.

 

I'll stand by my notion that in the longest continuous single season stretch in the Majors, he put up a 109 wRC+. That shows me that the talent is there and I view that level of play as being the floor for him going forward.

 

If you look at his entire time with the Sox his wRC+ is 104 and in his time before his major injury it was 113. So I think it's just incredibly unfair to him to say that he has never shown to be at least a league average bat.

 

I didn't say that -- I said he hasn't been an ABOVE average bat. I consider 98 wRC+m to be basically 100 wRC+. I'll give him average.

 

But average is NOT good enough for him.

 

[Southwest Sider]

It's true that when you want to make your pencil lineup, it starts off great until you get to Garcia's spot because we still don't really know what to expect from him. But Avi seems like a big competitor out there, and a hard worker. Those features should work well his pure talent, and in his limited playing time, he has shown that he is not completely clueless with the bat, which is another good sign. Hopefully in a larger sample size we can see Avi's talent really start to shine! :-)

[shysocks]

Avi's ISO last season jumped a little bit past what he'd ever really shown in the minors. That increase being real is about the only thing I feel comfortable predicting about him.

[LDF]

Avi needs to have a full yr playing in the majors. there can't be

any way to determine how he would do with out a history.