Are we really that good?

[Buehrle>Wood]

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 11m11 minutes ago

 

Bovada odds on #WhiteSox to win World Series 28-1. 8 AL teams w/ better odds, including Bos 9-1, Det 12-1, KC 20-1. (Sox 40-1 on 10/30/14).

Pretty sure they were 40-1 right before the melky signing, or at leastaafter the shark deal.

[southsideirish71]

Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 11m11 minutes ago

 

Bovada odds on #WhiteSox to win World Series 28-1. 8 AL teams w/ better odds, including Bos 9-1, Det 12-1, KC 20-1. (Sox 40-1 on 10/30/14).

 

Boston with 9-1. LMAO.

[Lillian]

I just submitted one of the most optimistic post, this board has seen in a while. Now, after reading this, it almost makes me want to say; "blow it up, and start a rebuild".

However, after thinking more about it, I believe these projections to be unfairly pessimistic.

 

One thing that is not taken into account is the fact that the whole team is so much better than last year. That should benefit everyone. It's not just that a vastly improved bullpen will

preserve a lot of those games that the Sox threw away last season. Everyone in the lineup is better when playing with better hitters in front of them, and behind them.

 

If this team does not contend for the Division title, I would expect that it would be because of injuries, not because the roster lacks quality players, as these projections seem to suggest.

[witesoxfan]

No offense Wite, but pass whatever you are sniffing. 2 WAR starter for a guy who was drafted last year is an incredibly unrealistic expectation for him, imo. Could he do it, certainly, but to do something like that, being drafted all of 6 months ago, is an extremely tough feat. I think for this year, we could look at Rodon as a guy who could hold is own in the 4th / 5th spot, while flashing some of that upside (and also getting hit at times).

 

You're right that 2 WAR may be optimistic, but this is still not projecting for him at all and I think he'd will provide the Sox with some very valuable innings this year.

[witesoxfan]

Boston with 9-1. LMAO.

 

There are a lot of people who think that Boston may be the best team in the league. I'd have trouble with that thought, but I think it's a talented team either way.

[LittleHurt05]

There are a lot of people who think that Boston may be the best team in the league. I'd have trouble with that thought, but I think it's a talented team either way.

 

Their starting rotation is just so blah. If they all reach their ceilings, it would be great, but it's highly unlikely that happens.

[chw42]

Boston with 9-1. LMAO.

 

Do they even have 5 starting pitchers...?

[spiderman]

The team should be somewhere between 85 and 90 if things go right. If things go better, meaning guys like Danks or some of the younger hitting (Garcia and 2B) hit better than expected, the team can maybe break 90. Of course, the opposite is also true; Sale usually spends some time on the DL; Quintana and Jeff S. both are expected to pitch like front-line starters. Even if they do, what about #4 and #5? Will Robertson solidify the bullpen?

 

Lots of questions either way that can make the team better or worse than mid to upper 80 win team.

[Dunt]

There are a lot of people who think that Boston may be the best team in the league. I'd have trouble with that thought, but I think it's a talented team either way.

 

Was this after sustaining blunt trauma to the head?

[witesoxfan]

Was this after sustaining blunt trauma to the head?

 

No, not at all:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/now-the-red...-in-the-league/

 

For the record, I don't necessarily believe it, but it's not inconceivable.

[pettie4sox]

Who are the Boston pitchers anyway?

[witesoxfan]

Who are the Boston pitchers anyway?

 

At the moment, their rotation is Buccholz, Porcello, Miley, Masterson, and Kelly.

[Buehrle>Wood]

2 war for Rodon would be putting up Bucholtz or Ordoizzi numbers. I think he can do that.

[LDF]

2 war for Rodon would be putting up Bucholtz or Ordoizzi numbers. I think he can do that.

 

i really can't see that from a rookie coming in. too much pressure

on him.

 

 

[Jake]

To assume that Johnson will be starting at 2B - unless the Sox just don't give a s*** about his measurable readiness - and Rodon will put up 2 WAR is ludicrously optimistic. This isn't about "what could be," this is about what is the most likely outcome if weighting every possibility based on its individual likelihood.

[chw42]

At the moment, their rotation is Buccholz, Porcello, Miley, Masterson, and Kelly.

 

They'd need Buccholz to be great and Masterson to bounce back if they want any chance of even reaching the playoffs.

[GGajewski18]

Boston with 9-1. LMAO.

 

Cubs have 12/1 odds with 4 proven players on their team lol

[bmags]

The team should be somewhere between 85 and 90 if things go right. If things go better, meaning guys like Danks or some of the younger hitting (Garcia and 2B) hit better than expected, the team can maybe break 90. Of course, the opposite is also true; Sale usually spends some time on the DL; Quintana and Jeff S. both are expected to pitch like front-line starters. Even if they do, what about #4 and #5? Will Robertson solidify the bullpen?

 

Lots of questions either way that can make the team better or worse than mid to upper 80 win team.

 

I feel like we are an 83 win team if we have an average season, we need the danks/garcia/bullpen great years to get us to 88 wins.

[Chisoxfn]

You're right that 2 WAR may be optimistic, but this is still not projecting for him at all and I think he'd will provide the Sox with some very valuable innings this year.

I agree. I also said the same thing about Micah, who the org considers to be more valuable than say Carlos Sanchez.

[thxfrthmmrs]

One thing these computer based projections don't account for simply adding stabilizers like Robertson and Duke at the end of bullpen will take away pressure from guys like Petricka, Putnam, Guerra and Webb. If we are only asking them to pitch the 6/7/8 instead of high leverage 8th and 9th, it would put them in a better position to succeed as well. 3 of those guys have a big fastball, they just didn't command it well last year. Taking pressure off them would certainly help.

 

But yea, 2 WAR for this bullpen grossly under-projecting.

[SCCWS]

First, I'd like to say that I'm one who wouldn't have really dreamed of this offseason. I don't love the Samardzija acquisition, because he's in a contract year, has had only one good season (though it was his most recent), and because we lost our most viable 2B candidate to get him. I don't love the Cabrera acquisition because he's a douchebag, has only had three good seasons, one of which was just before PED suspension and the other the same year as that suspension - he isn't a great runner, fielder, or power-hitter, making him highly dependent on his stroke.

 

Nonetheless, the team has definitely gotten better. But how good are we, really? I noticed that, even with Melky added into the calculation, that FanGraphs' WAR projection still has the Sox as 2nd-to-last in the AL. Rather than just assume that they are completely off-base, I wanted to look at exactly what they are projecting. I've tried to make this skimmable.

 

Catcher

Total WAR - 1.4

MLB Rank - #29

 

Tyler Flowers (352 PA) - 0.8 WAR, .208/.272/.362

Adrian Nieto (192 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .223/.287/.337

 

Clearly, they're probably wrong about Nieto's role. From the looks of the projection for Brantly, we'd have a modest gain by giving him Nieto's at-bats. Still, the main thing here is to have Flowers outperform this projection. We're really weak at this position with not a lot of upside.

 

First Base

Total WAR - 3.3

MLB Rank - #8

 

Jose Abreu (350 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .283/.355/.530

Adam LaRoche (315 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .239/.343/.434

 

Before you lose your mind, these are only the statistics expected to compiled by the players while playing first base. So their projected ABs for Abreu at DH will up that projection for him. Nonetheless, they're taking a conservative guess at how he'll do in his second year. This is reasonable given how limited his track record is. I don't think they have the playing time mix right at this spot, but it's not very significant as they aren't all that different defensively.

 

Second Base

Total WAR - 0.5

MLB Rank - #29

 

Carlos Sanchez (490 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .259/.306/.341

Leury Garcia (175 PA) - -0.2 WAR, .225/.268/.306

 

Well, they definitely have the playing time mix wrong here as I think most of us would agree that Leury is a relative longshot to make the roster, let alone get around 20% of the reps at 2B. Even if we gave those reps to Sanchez's projection, we don't move up a single spot in the MLB rankings. There's just nobody with a MLB track record here. Sanchez is the most prepared, arguably, but the projection reflects how little upside he has. Saladino could be in the mix here and arguably possesses higher upside. The Sox may have optimism for Micah here, but his AAA production wasn't there to make me feel confident.

 

Third Base

Total WAR - 1.2

MLB Rank - #26

 

Conor Gillaspie (490 PA) - 1.0 WAR, .255/.319/.393

Matt Davidson (140 PA) - 0.3 WAR, .218/.289/.381

 

While I don't think Davidson gets those ABs, it shows you that someone is likely to get a lot of reserve ABs at 3B and there aren't any promising candidates. And a lot of us are remembering 1st half Gillaspie and forgetting how dreadful he was down the stretch. We just don't have much at this position unless Gillaspie suddenly finds more consistency at the dish or gets a lot better defensively. A productive platoon partner could make a lot of difference, too.

 

Shortstop

Total WAR - 2.4 WAR

MLB Rank - #13

 

Alexei Ramirez (630 PA) - 2.3 WAR, .265/.300/.379

 

This is about as pessimistic of a projection for Alexei as their system could have produced. He's coming off seasons of 3.1 and 3.3 WAR with similar plate appearance numbers as their projection has. The projection basically has his offense regressing back to where it was in 2013 and his defense to where it was in 2014 (the worst of his career). It also projects a career low in baserunning. Again, pretty pessimistic, though not implausible.

 

Either way, it's a strength of the team, but whether he replicates last year or falls to their projection could play a role in how good the Sox are.

 

Left Field

Total WAR - 1.8

MLB Rank - #20

 

Melky Cabrera (560 PA) - 1.6 WAR, .288/.341/.432

 

Pretty expensive upgrade from #27 projection to #20 projection at this position. If you think the playing time is low, do know that he's only reached 560 PA three times in nine seasons. Melky had the second-best offensive season of his career last year and had a 2.6 WAR, so this isn't a crazy projection overall. His real downfall is that he's a bad defensive player at this point in his career. Melky's advanced defensive numbers show that he's only a modest improvement on Dayan in LF, with not much difference in range, which is kind of crazy and shows you that he's gotten chubby and possibly lazy.

 

If Melky stays where he was last year or does something more like 2012, that would be a big boost.

 

Center Field

Total WAR - 2.2

MLB Rank - #20

 

Adam Eaton (595 PA) - 2.0 WAR, .273/.343/.379

 

As is typical, second-year players aren't assumed to replicate success. They see him taking a step back towards the numbers he posted with the D-Backs in 2013. His 2014 WAR was 2.7, for comparison's sake. This is another case of a place where we have upside depending on whether he avoids injuries and/or gets even better at the plate. Their more pessimistic projection seems to be based on a lower BABIP, which was .359 last year. In the minors, Eaton posted BABIPs of .446, .430, .379, .345, .375, and .432. I'd say it wouldn't be crazy for him to continue to have high BABIP which might color your own projections differently.

 

Right Field

Total WAR - 1.3

MLB Rank - #22

 

Avisail Garcia (490 PA) - 1.1 WAR, .273/.317/.426

JB Shuck/Dayan Viciedo/Jordan Danks combined for 0.2 WAR in 210 additional PA.

 

Two things to note: Avi wasn't healthy, so they don't yet endow him with a projection of good health. Avi also hasn't proven himself at the plate, so he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt there. They're also pretty optimistic on his defense, which has been awful thus far.

 

Avi is a big wildcard, I don't know what we'll get from him. This is a position where we can say "at least we have upside" because I could see us getting as much as 4.0 WAR from this spot which would be huge. We could also end up demoting the kid at some point for all we know.

 

Designated Hitter

Total WAR - 2.3

MLB Rank - #4

 

Adam LaRoche (280 PA) - 0.6 WAR, .239/.343/.434

Jose Abreu (245 PA) - 1.4 WAR, .283/.355/.530

 

As mentioned before, I think LaRoche gets a larger portion of the PA here than they have projected, but it doesn't really matter. See comments on the 1Bmen.

 

Starting Pitchers

Total WAR - 10.5

MLB Rank - #8

 

Chris Sale (188 IP) - 4.6 WAR, 3.02 ERA/3.07 FIP

Jeff Samardzija (188 IP) - 3.0 WAR, 3.93 ERA/3.69 FIP

Jose Quintana (179 IP) - 2.4 WAR, 3.95 ERA/3.89 FIP

Hector Noesi (139 IP) - 0.2 WAR, 5.04 ERA/5.02 FIP

John Danks (129 IP) - 0.3 WAR, 5.01 ERA/4.89 FIP

 

Nothing too crazy here. Seems too pessimistic on Quintana for me, though. By season, Q has put up 3.76 ERA/4.23 FIP, 3.51/3.82, and 3.32/2.81. Odd to project his worst season or at least worst since rookie season now. I think some of it has to do with the fact that his HR rate was cut in half last year compared to the previous two seasons, suggesting some luck. I think he'll pitch pretty similarly to last year. I also don't think both Noesi and Danks will do that poorly. It is important, though, to keep in mind that these projections are averages of the many possible seasons these guys could have. So this accounts for the possibility that Noesi/Danks post 7.00 ERA and things like that. The weight of bad possibilities compared to good ones is probably tilted towards bad for those guys.

 

Either way, this is a good rotation! If we have the 8th best output from our starters next year, we'll all be happy. We were at 11 last season.

 

Relief Pitchers

Total WAR - 2.0

MLB Rank - #14

 

David Robertson (65 IP) - 1.6 WAR, 2.82 ERA/2.78 FIP

Zach Duke (65 IP) - 0.7 WAR, 3.44 ERA/3.48 FIP

Zach Putnam (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.15 ERA/4.01 FIP

Jake Petricka (55 IP) - 0.1 WAR, 4.17 ERA/4.01 FIP

Javy Guerra (45 IP) - -0.1 WAR, 4.49 ERA/4.49 FIP

Daniel Webb (40 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.25 ERA/4.11 FIP

Dan Jennings (35 IP) - 0.0 WAR, 4.18 ERA/4.13 FIP

 

Once again, nothing crazy. Relievers are hard to project and some of the guys we'll be counting on based on their production last year basically came out of nowhere (Putnam and Petricka especially, to a lesser extent Guerra but he didn't do that great and we aren't really depending on him). Jennings might stand out to some, but bear in mind that he's never thrown a ton of innings and has posted stats that seem very regression-worthy. It won't be the end of the world if he posts those kind of numbers.

 

We were at #25 from relievers last season, FWIW. I also don't have an easy to access this, but last I looked into it I believe we had the worst MLB record with leads in 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Those should definitely improve.

 

Final thoughts

Once again, our total projection is to be the second-worst team in the AL. With that said, we are also ahead of 7 NL teams, which says something about the league-wide balance of power (and the difference the DH makes to this calculation). It's also worth noting that where we are (#22, 28.8 WAR) and 4th best team in MLB is less than 10 WAR. It isn't easy to add 10 WAR to your projection, but it isn't at all crazy for the projections to ultimately be off by that far.

 

It's also worth directing your attention to FanGraphs' own article about how projections are not predictions. Projections are our best guesses and in the case of places like FanGraphs, they are always subject to change, whether that is via new players or new information - like if the players start outperforming the initial projections.

 

Nonetheless, despite our improvements, the numbers clearly show that we have to have a lot of things go right. A lot of our best players are relatively unproven. We have some wide-open question mark positions. We can't afford to have many guys underperform their expectations and we have to have several guys outperform expectations. I wouldn't be placing any bets on the Sox just yet, even if we are a lot more exciting.

 

Basically this is a guess no better than a fortune teller can give us in Chicago.

 

[bmags]

The main thing that bothers me in their projection are the SP WAR projections. If I were to peg one section "most likely to outperform" I'd be all over that.

[SoxAce]

Alexei and LaRoche are the only ones I feel will regress (especially Alexei on both sides) as far as position players. The others probably won't and if they do (say Melky for example) it won't be much. Just my opinion though.

Edited December 15, 2014 by SoxAce

[Chisoxfn]

To assume that Johnson will be starting at 2B - unless the Sox just don't give a s*** about his measurable readiness - and Rodon will put up 2 WAR is ludicrously optimistic. This isn't about "what could be," this is about what is the most likely outcome if weighting every possibility based on its individual likelihood.

Sox absolutely love Micah. He will be playing at some point this season, and a lot. Call it what you will and I said nothing about his WAR, just that the writing is on the wall and this projection does not include Micah getting at bats.

[southsider2k5]

Cubs have 12/1 odds with 4 proven players on their team lol

 

That is the most ridiculous one of all.