Are we really that good?

[bmags]

What's the sample size on "Cubans". I feel like that's such a dumb statement that few other identifications would get away with.

[witesoxfan]

For reference's sake

 

Yasiel Puig

2013 - .319/.391/.534, .383 BABIP, 8.3% BB%, 22.5% K%

2014 - .296/.382/.480 .356 BABIP, 10.5% BB%, 19.4% K%

 

Perhaps some if it is BABIP normalization, perhaps some is inducing weaker contract, perhaps some is more detailed scouting reports (including how to pitch him and how to play him defensively), perhaps some is Puig looking for better pitches and hitting the ball weaker when protecting the plate, perhaps some was fatigue playing 140+ games in the majors, or perhaps some of it is natural regression (or perhaps the aforementioned reasons EXPLAIN the regression).

 

Yasiel Puig was still a really good hitter. If Abreu hit .300/.360/.535, are we really going to be upset? But I don't know that that line suggests he's among the best 5 hitters in the game but instead a top 15 or top 20 hitter in the game.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

What's the sample size on "Cubans". I feel like that's such a dumb statement that few other identifications would get away with.

 

It's not a dumb statement, and we have a really small sample size for Cubans to the point where we don't necessarily know if there's causation or correlation or noise or anything, but I just showed Puig's numbers, Alexei Ramirez put up worse numbers, Viciedo has done nothing but regress/get worse, Cespedes's numbers have seemingly normalized too, and I'm sure we could dig more to find other examples.

 

Frankly, Abreu could put up even bigger numbers, and the Cuban thing was correlation at this point and it is not causation. I just think EXPECTING Abreu to put up bigger numbers is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

[bmags]

So there is some sort of cultural phenomenon that makes Cubans incapable of 2 straight exceptional years? It's not "2nd year players"?

[Y2Jimmy0]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...very-good-team/

[witesoxfan]

So there is some sort of cultural phenomenon that makes Cubans incapable of 2 straight exceptional years? It's not "2nd year players"?

 

No, I just got at that. Expecting Abreu to put up bigger numbers because they have Melky and LaRoche is, to me, like expecting him to regress because he's a 2nd year Cuban except that I think we actually have more correlation in the latter.

 

I think if Abreu improves, it's because he progressed throughout the year last year and adjusted to MLB pitching and it will have absolutely nothing to do with Cabrera or LaRoche surrounding him. I think the Sox will be better offensively because they have better offensive players. I don't think LaRoche provides any sort of better protection than Adam Dunn did, and I don't think Cabrera provides any more protection than Ramirez did in the 2 hole.

[bmags]

For the record it was kind of funny as I went through time and could not find a Cuban player who got better their second year beside Alex Sanchez and Morales and both were kind of small sample sizes.

 

I think I'm most interested in whether 2015 Abreu sees a power half and a contact half, or if we lose a bunch of power but see his high contact.

[witesoxfan]

For the record it was kind of funny as I went through time and could not find a Cuban player who got better their second year beside Alex Sanchez and Morales and both were kind of small sample sizes.

 

I think I'm most interested in whether 2015 Abreu sees a power half and a contact half, or if we lose a bunch of power but see his high contact.

 

Some of his homers were "lucky" in that they barely cleared, but from what I could tell, he was also getting tired in the second half of last season. The guy still has easy 30+ homer power. I think we'll see, more or less, a very similar year to last year, but perhaps he hits for more power as he builds up his stamina.

[Southwest Sider]

Frankly, Abreu could put up even bigger numbers, and the Cuban thing was correlation at this point and it is not causation. I just think EXPECTING Abreu to put up bigger numbers is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

 

Thanks for the bit of reality check. On one hand, it is amazing to think about the potential of Abreu with real baseball players around him. Melky instead of Beckham (though Alexei isn't horribad in the #2 spot), and Laroche instead of Dunn. It's a pretty exciting proposition. It really does seem like Abreu is the real deal, and he could put up MVP numbers next year.

 

But as you said, expecting it would set you up for disappointment. But I still wouldn't be disappointed if he had a carbon copy season to last year. I seriously doubt he'd regress too seriously considering how he handled himself in the first and second halves of last season.

 

It seemed as though, in the first half, he tried to hit more home runs, and did, but what followed was a lower (but not unacceptable) batting average. Then, in the 2nd half, he decided he wanted to hit for more average, and he did. Point is, he did what he wanted, not what the pitchers wanted. That being said, I'm not quite as excitable a fan as I used to be, and I can't speak for others, but as disappointed as I might be for Abreu to have a poor season, I'd still be able to chalk it up to sophomore slump and believe that he's better.

 

Now, I have two questions for you. One, has anyone ever told you that you use the word "frankly" a lot?

 

And two, assuming Abreu is able to "decide" whether he wants to hit for average a power, which would you prefer him to choose? Or would you prefer he went about it like he did this past season?

Edited December 16, 2014 by South Sider

[bmags]

I really hope when Abreu gets to camp he is not fat as hell again.

[LittleHurt05]

I'd imagine that just having a year's worth of MLB scouting on Abreu will lead to teams pitching him tougher, and forcing him to adjust. It's not like they even had minor league at-bats to scout, they had very little to work with from Cuba.

[witesoxfan]

Thanks for the bit of reality check. On one hand, it is amazing to think about the potential of Abreu with real baseball players around him. Melky instead of Beckham (though Alexei isn't horribad in the #2 spot), and Laroche instead of Dunn. It's a pretty exciting proposition. It really does seem like Abreu is the real deal, and he could put up MVP numbers next year.

 

But as you said, expecting it would set you up for disappointment. But I still wouldn't be disappointed if he had a carbon copy season to last year. I seriously doubt he'd regress too seriously considering how he handled himself in the first and second halves of last season.

 

It seemed as though, in the first half, he tried to hit more home runs, and did, but what followed was a lower (but not unacceptable) batting average. Then, in the 2nd half, he decided he wanted to hit for more average, and he did. Point is, he did what he wanted, not what the pitchers wanted. That being said, I'm not quite as excitable a fan as I used to be, and I can't speak for others, but as disappointed as I might be for Abreu to have a poor season, I'd still be able to chalk it up to sophomore slump and believe that he's better.

 

Now, I have two questions for you. One, has anyone ever told you that you use the word "frankly" a lot?

 

And two, assuming Abreu is able to "decide" whether he wants to hit for average a power, which would you prefer him to choose? Or would you prefer he went about it like he did this past season?

 

I think it's less him trying to hit a certain way and more him hitting what the pitchers give him. There's only been one batter I've ever seen who dictated at bats, and that was Barry Bonds, and he was not clean. However, the best hitters take whatever the pitcher gives them and finds success that way. That's what I saw more of Abreu last year. As such, I think he will properly adjust and ultimately we will get to a happy medium where he's approximately a .300/.375/.550 monster all the same. He's a really good hitter.

 

Also, I have been aware that, at times, I say "frankly" a lot. Frankly, I think that's perfectly fine.

[Rowand44]

I'd imagine that just having a year's worth of MLB scouting on Abreu will lead to teams pitching him tougher, and forcing him to adjust. It's not like they even had minor league at-bats to scout, they had very little to work with from Cuba.

I think teams did adjust in the 2nd half of the season and he is so damn good that despite his power dropping off he was able to remain as productive. Trust me, I expect regression from some of our players but I actually think Jose is going to have a better season this year. He's that good imo.

[dpd9189]

I think Jake's initial post was fair and brought up some good questions and points. Despite all the moves I still think the Sox need a couple more to get them to where they need to be. I still see them as a team on the outside looking in. They need more depth and I think Hahn will address it in time.

[witesoxfan]

I think Jake's initial post was fair and brought up some good questions and points. Despite all the moves I still think the Sox need a couple more to get them to where they need to be. I still see them as a team on the outside looking in. They need more depth and I think Hahn will address it in time.

 

If they can find the right piece, I think the next biggest hole is in the rotation.

[ChiSox59]

I really hope when Abreu gets to camp he is not fat as hell again.

 

Hmm. I don't know if "fat as hell" is the words I would use. Jose's a big dude, no doubt, but he certainly is not "fat as hell".

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If they can find the right piece, I think the next biggest hole is in the rotation.

Morrow signs with the Padres. Brett Anderson with the Dodgers for $10M for 1 year. Damn that's a lot for a guy who is never healthy.

[bmags]

Hmm. I don't know if "fat as hell" is the words I would use. Jose's a big dude, no doubt, but he certainly is not "fat as hell".

 

He showed up at camp last year about 30 lbs overweight.

[southsider2k5]

He showed up at camp last year about 30 lbs overweight.

The situation is a bit different now.

[Rowand44]

The situation is a bit different now.

Ya he's got all this delicious American food to eat and millions of dollars to spend, he's going to show up 60 lbs over weight!

[Chisoxfn]

Morrow signs with the Padres. Brett Anderson with the Dodgers for $10M for 1 year. Damn that's a lot for a guy who is never healthy.

I think the $10M is heavily incentivized on him reaching 200 innings.

[bmags]

Can Steamer re-run the numbers now that we have Brad Penny?

[The Ginger Kid]

Probably the biggest reason JR allowed these exciting offseason moves is because the Sox had the worst TV ratings in the league, and it's been going down since 2012. Has it made them better? Yes. But from a business standpoint, it's significantly improved the product on the field and that should boost ratings.

[he gone.]

Just my two cents around the diamond:

C – Flowers:

We can dog him all we want, and he is not perfect. Hahn was looking at Montero this year, McCann last year, etc. Obviously it’d be nice to upgrade. But if you were to look around … not much out there in reality. Flowers is what he is. A plus defender, a good game caller, and can hit 15 HR’s. The negatives are his strikeouts. His batting average is a bit weak too. Call him a .250 hitter and I’m ecstatic. Probably more near .230. In all reality, not our problem position. Kind of the Beckham of years past … can be better, however, not the reason we won’t win. His arm being strong is good in a run happy division in the Tigers and Royals.

 

1B – Abreu:

Not much to say. Even with regression he is still a top 5 bat in the AL. I don’t think he’s the type of guy to regress though. And having a guy like LaRoche as his protection is only going to help

 

DH – LaRoche:

Look at his stats. That’s all I’ll say. Dude hits, and hits consistently. Yes, there is the fear that he’ll be like the last DH from Washington (Dunn) that threw up amazingly consistent stats in his career, was getting older, and then did awful … however I believe he’ll be able to come through. .270BA, 28HR, 85RBIs. Also a great clubhouse presence.

 

2B – Sanchez/Johnson:

People get worried about this position. Like I always say – its 2B. It’s not going to win or lose you a division. Both of these guys have what it takes to be at least average 2B in their career. Sanchez isn’t going to wow anybody in any one facet of his game. He’ll be a plus defender. Probably hit .250-270, minimal power. He is quite young though. Micah Johnson probably has more upside. I hope he’s our starter come Opening Day because that means he was looking good in ST. Probably the biggest competition in ST. Still not a position to worry about. Second base/ 8th/9th hitters dont win you divisions, they dont lose you divisions. give me some speed, range and defense with okay average and im happy.

 

SS – Alexei:

Not much to say. He is what he is – and that is a top SS in the AL and in MLB. Look around, not much can do what he does with both his bat and in the field. Count on another .280 15HR 70RBI season with good defense and playing 150-160 games at SS.

 

3B – Gillaspie:

Do I expect him to produce like he did last year? No. Can he do fine – yes. If he does what he did last year were more than fine. Not a problem position. If he regresses? Could be trouble. If he has some trouble maybe Davidson can be a flash for a month while Gillaspie recovers on the bench??

 

4OF – Viciedo:

Doubtful - Can't play center. Not like Hahn to keep a tradeable asset with no home on the field. Maybe something crazy where he can be a super, mediocore defense utility at 3B, LF, RF, 1B/DH. Maybe he has purpose there...MAYBE. Rather see him traded for an arm though.

 

LF - Cabrera:

Still youngish. Don't think we'll see his declining skills this year. Nor in his contract. .300+ 3 of last 4 years. Let says worst case scenario he puts up .290/13/65. Still a great upgrade.

 

CF – Eaton:

If he can do what he did last year and stay healthy we are golden here. Id like to keep Jordan Danks as an option for anytime that Eaton does go down though. Great defense there and that’s about all you need as a backup.

 

RF – Garcia:

If Viciedo is our biggest problem, Garcia is our second biggest problem. I do think if he can stay healthy we will have a horse on our team. He may take some lumps and is still young. Was hoping he’d get a full season of taking his lumps last season but was good he could come back. I think expecting a .260, 15HR, 70RBI, 15SB and good defense isn’t too much to ask. If he has a season like Alexei basically I’ll be happy.

 

Pitching:

If all are healthy in our rotation – and that’s always a big IF, then we are fine. Not a great rotation, not terrible. Problem is our 4-5 spots. Can Noesi continue what he did second half of last year? If so he is a good #5. Can Danks do what he did last year? Then he’s a good #5. Problem there is we have two #5’s. Ideally one would be long relief and we’d have a solid #4. I think we are a year away from that with Rodon. Rodon can probably do it now, however he’s not going to pitch more than 150IP. I wouldn’t mind if we got aggressive somehow and got a pitcher for 1 year. Penny???? JK. I dont think Hahn/Reinsdorf/KW will be aggressive now -- but come June I can see them sacrificing young talent for a good 3/4 pitcher ala Peavy for Boston/SF in years past. You do that? You have a great rotation, Rodon and Noesi/Danks coming out of the pen for middle relief and im ecstatic. I think acquiring another pitcher is going to be a sit and wait approach though.

 

Bullpen:

Probably need another arm – maybe two. I do think we’ll get one in the Viciedo trade. Another solution is to move up a few of our good arms in the minors to pitch out of the pen like Montas and Rodon. However that is a win now strategy. And probably shouldn’t be deployed unless we are actually set up for that. Since we have questions at #4 in the rotation, 2B, and in some degrees C, 3B and RF … shouldn’t happen this year.

 

All that being said - put me down for 84-89 wins. Wide range. Biggest keys in my opinion is either Danks or Noesi stepping up above and beyond their expectations, Garcia producing, and Eaton staying healthy.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think the $10M is heavily incentivized on him reaching 200 innings.

No I think that's the base salary with another 4M in incentives .

Edited December 16, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside