Are we really that good?

[Chisoxfn]

No I think that's the base salary with another 4M in incentives .

That is absurd. Wow. Crazy Dodgers...crazy.

[elrockinMT]

I plotted out the upcoming season using the famous Elrock graph and I say we are real good

[TomPickle]

 

ZiPS projections

[daggins]

Garcia has upside so that 0 could be a 2 pretty easily. Other than that, seems pretty accurate.

 

More back of the rotation options pleez

[bmags]

wellp.

[LittleHurt05]

That is absurd. Wow. Crazy Dodgers...crazy.

 

Right? That's what I thought. He's talented but hasn't thrown 100+ innings since 2010.

[shysocks]

 

ZiPS projections

Not sure if these are legit or where you got them, but I find it extremely unlikely that Danks and Noesi combine for -1 WAR.

[witesoxfan]

That's 29 zWAR. There are absolutely areas where they can improve amongst that too internally, with the keys being RF, 4/5 in the rotation, and perhaps C and 3B. The bullpen is going to be projected 2 but that could easily be a 4 or 5 too with progression from young players.

 

Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this, but the only thing I ever really saw wrong with the Steamer projections was Quintana.

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

[shysocks]

So the most likely outcome for Danks and Noesi is that they each have the worst year of their careers. Did they both turn 42 and I wasn't aware?

[witesoxfan]

So the most likely outcome for Danks and Noesi is that they each have the worst year of their careers. Did they both turn 42 and I wasn't aware?

 

With regards to Noesi, my guess is that it's looking at his AAA and MLB career prior to arriving with the White Sox and putting a lot of stock in that. It's legitimately possible that Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but that would assume his talent has changed and comparing all of his numbers across the board, there doesn't appear to be any significant talent change. If there has been, we will see it this year and projection systems will reflect it more next year.

 

With Danks, it sees an aging pitcher losing velocity with mediocre to poor strikeout numbers whose command worsened, implying that he's going to allow a lot of baserunners and he's going to be completely dependent upon his defense to get out of those situations and will allow more home runs moving forward. Again, unless there is a shift in talent somehow, it's safe to assume John Danks is going to be bad.

[RockRaines]

That's 29 zWAR. There are absolutely areas where they can improve amongst that too internally, with the keys being RF, 4/5 in the rotation, and perhaps C and 3B. The bullpen is going to be projected 2 but that could easily be a 4 or 5 too with progression from young players.

 

Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this, but the only thing I ever really saw wrong with the Steamer projections was Quintana.

Yeah I think the Sox see more than 0 from Avi.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah I think the Sox see more than 0 from Avi.

 

More than offensively, I am hoping for a defensive leap for Garcia.

[Vance Law]

With regards to Noesi, my guess is that it's looking at his AAA and MLB career prior to arriving with the White Sox and putting a lot of stock in that. It's legitimately possible that Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but that would assume his talent has changed and comparing all of his numbers across the board, there doesn't appear to be any significant talent change. If there has been, we will see it this year and projection systems will reflect it more next year.

 

With Danks, it sees an aging pitcher losing velocity with mediocre to poor strikeout numbers whose command worsened, implying that he's going to allow a lot of baserunners and he's going to be completely dependent upon his defense to get out of those situations and will allow more home runs moving forward. Again, unless there is a shift in talent somehow, it's safe to assume John Danks is going to be bad.

 

But a projection system isn't smart enough to know about such developments as !New Danks!

http://www.southsidesox.com/2014/9/23/6832...h-seasons-again

[flavum]

More than offensively, I am hoping for a defensive leap for Garcia.

 

But not head first!

[witesoxfan]

Yeah I think the Sox see more than 0 from Avi.

 

I certainly do too, but ZiPS is basing its projections on the numbers he's put up in the majors and at the minor league level. Thus far, he's been a mediocre hitter and a poor defender and he's at -0.8 fWAR for his career. Steamer projects 1 WAR, and I think we should be able to expect he will be closer to 2.

 

I don't think these projection systems are going to be kind to the White Sox at all this offseason for numerous reasons, but none of it is intentional bias against the White Sox. Mostly they're going to be unkind because the White Sox are running out a team whose standard deviations of wins could be anywhere from 77 wins to 95 wins, because there are a lot of real, legitimate candidates for regression on the team but there are also a ton of candidates for breakouts too. I haven't been opposed to any move Hahn has made this offseason moving forward either. They're trying to compete the next two seasons while doing nothing to really hurt their chances moving forward.

[shysocks]

With regards to Noesi, my guess is that it's looking at his AAA and MLB career prior to arriving with the White Sox and putting a lot of stock in that. It's legitimately possible that Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but that would assume his talent has changed and comparing all of his numbers across the board, there doesn't appear to be any significant talent change. If there has been, we will see it this year and projection systems will reflect it more next year.

 

With Danks, it sees an aging pitcher losing velocity with mediocre to poor strikeout numbers whose command worsened, implying that he's going to allow a lot of baserunners and he's going to be completely dependent upon his defense to get out of those situations and will allow more home runs moving forward. Again, unless there is a shift in talent somehow, it's safe to assume John Danks is going to be bad.

Even taking all that into account, -1.6 WAR between them framed as the most likely possibility is ridiculous. By no means do I think Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but it has him at a 139 FIP-, essentially equal to the 143 he put up in his -0.7 WAR 2012, but then getting more innings to hit -1.2. It's like the data since then didn't inform anything at all. Can you admit that seems off?

[witesoxfan]

Even taking all that into account, -1.6 WAR between them framed as the most likely possibility is ridiculous. By no means do I think Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but it has him at a 139 FIP-, essentially equal to the 143 he put up in his -0.7 WAR 2012, but then getting more innings to hit -1.2. It's like the data since then didn't inform anything at all. Can you admit that seems off?

 

This is all generated mathematically and, as I said, there's no bias, so while I think he will perform better than that, I can understand why he's projected for what he is. It's the same as my reasoning for Avisail Garcia above...it's projecting him to hit decently and to continue his porous fielding and to end up with a WAR of 0.3, but Steamer projects him for 1 WAR and I think he will put up something closer to 2. That's my gut belief based on what I know from his talent and the work he's putting it, but projection systems don't base projections based on how badly a guy wants to be good or how hard he is working, they base it on far more tangible information.

 

There are an infinite number of factors that these projection systems aren't including that we as human beings can account for, but the information that these use is the statistics and it's incredible how much correlates year to year based on that information alone.

[southsider2k5]

Tyler Kepner ‏@TylerKepner 3h3 hours ago

 

On Baseball: In Chicago, it's the White Sox Who Seem Closer to the 2015 World Series http://nyti.ms/1syfY0i

[shysocks]

This is all generated mathematically and, as I said, there's no bias, so while I think he will perform better than that, I can understand why he's projected for what he is. It's the same as my reasoning for Avisail Garcia above...it's projecting him to hit decently and to continue his porous fielding and to end up with a WAR of 0.3, but Steamer projects him for 1 WAR and I think he will put up something closer to 2. That's my gut belief based on what I know from his talent and the work he's putting it, but projection systems don't base projections based on how badly a guy wants to be good or how hard he is working, they base it on far more tangible information.

 

There are an infinite number of factors that these projection systems aren't including that we as human beings can account for, but the information that these use is the statistics and it's incredible how much correlates year to year based on that information alone.

Not suggesting bias, just suggesting wrongness. Horrible Year followed by Bad Year followed by Mediocre Year = Horrible Year is something that, unlike you, I cannot understand. Just not getting it. And I realize that's an over-simplification.

[Balta1701]

but the information that these use is the statistics and it's incredible how much correlates year to year based on that information alone.

Have you actually seen a good presentation/plot of how well these prediction systems do at predicting people's actual performance?

[GGajewski18]

Tyler Kepner ‏@TylerKepner 3h3 hours ago

 

On Baseball: In Chicago, it's the White Sox Who Seem Closer to the 2015 World Series http://nyti.ms/1syfY0i

 

That's what I think too. It mystifies me that Cubs are at 12/1 odds lolol. Tied with Cardinals. Not a chance. They still could finish 4th in that division.

 

I'd take the Cardinals, Brewers, and Pirates over them. They all have better line ups and rotations than the Cubs. All though I think the Cubs rotation is better than the Pirates.

[SCCWS]

That's 29 zWAR. There are absolutely areas where they can improve amongst that too internally, with the keys being RF, 4/5 in the rotation, and perhaps C and 3B. The bullpen is going to be projected 2 but that could easily be a 4 or 5 too with progression from young players.

 

Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this, but the only thing I ever really saw wrong with the Steamer projections was Quintana.

 

 

Last year they projected Boston with a 43 for 2014 and they had one of the worst records in baeball. Fun to look at but a Fortune Teller working the subway station imay be ust as accurate.

[Balta1701]

Last year they projected Boston with a 43 for 2014 and they had one of the worst records in baeball. Fun to look at but a Fortune Teller working the subway station imay be ust as accurate.

A single bad miss I can live with, but one thing really bothering me now that people are putting so much weight on these predictions this offseason is that there's an accuracy rate and a margin of error that they're not sharing.

 

If 10% of them are off by 20 wins and 25% are off by 5 wins, then they're pretty darn useful. If 50% of them are off by 20 wins, you're almost better off flipping a coin.

[Rowand44]

I honestly have no expectations for Avi, good or bad. No idea what to expect out of him in 2015.