Robin Ventura Bullpen Management

[Kyyle23]

So you figure he just lost count of how many pitchers he had in the bullpen? Is it better to use a ss who's never pitched before in his life in a tie game?

 

AGAIN, he used ALL OF HIS PITCHERS.

 

Look for yourself, they all sucked

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CH...201404160.shtml

[ptatc]

First, I would question the validity of any stat that attempts to measure effectiveness. If you have a list of some of these metrics then please share.

 

Second, some people may be unable to separate the talent level from the manager' performance, but that doesn't mean we all do. I only worry about the things Robin can control, which talent hasn't nothing to do with. I personally think he's a poor in-game decision-maker. I feel like he doesn't think two or three moves ahead ever. I'm also skeptical that he uses much data in his decision-making. Overall, I just don't find him to be a very strategic person.

Of course the talent effects what he can do. For example, what if you are in a game situation that calls for a pinch hitter. Everyone knows it, Robin, Hawk, the announcer, the metrics guy and every fan in the stadium. Robin looks down his bench and sees....................... Leury Garcia. Now even though every knows he should pinch hit do you go with Garcia? What is the likelyhood that the decision will succeed?

 

The talent definitely dictates what the manager can do.

[witesoxfan]

So you figure he just lost count of how many pitchers he had in the bullpen? Is it better to use a ss who's never pitched before in his life in a tie game?

 

I said it then and I'll say it now...had Ventura managed to make sure he had pitchers in the 14th inning, they surely would have lost that game in 9.

 

Ventura managed that game as perfectly as anyone could. Sometimes you just don't win the game.

[Quin]

The funny part is that Leury wasn't even that terrible looking. Didn't he almost get a strikeout?

[GreenSox]

That was a quote out of frustration when his bullpen was blowing games. He will not be able to do that with a successful bullpen. The roles need to be defined in some manner.

Defined in a very broad manner. This business of "X has the 7th", "Y has the 8th" is silly stuff. It only makes sense when you have a sizable lead in a game. Their role is to get outs. Use the best pitchers when there are men on base.

I thought he handled the pen fine, running out of pitchers in that game notwithstanding. He tended to leave in starters too long - the good ones were overpitched (although Ventura quit using them 110+ pitches after he put Sale on the DL) as were the bad ones (presumably because the bullpen was weak - hopefully he'll yank Danks this year before he pitches us out of games).

His personality is fine, as long as the players are motivated, which these players should be.

Edited December 16, 2014 by GreenSox

[Eminor3rd]

I'd be curious as to why everyone thinks he's average, or below. Are there statistics? Is it the eye test? Or is it that he bears the brunt of frustrations when the team is full of crappy players?

 

Mostly the latter. Everyone needs a scapegoat and people, for some reason, refuse to judge decisions based on the information that was available at the time.

[Chicago White Sox]

Of course the talent effects what he can do. For example, what if you are in a game situation that calls for a pinch hitter. Everyone knows it, Robin, Hawk, the announcer, the metrics guy and every fan in the stadium. Robin looks down his bench and sees....................... Leury Garcia. Now even though every knows he should pinch hit do you go with Garcia? What is the likelyhood that the decision will succeed?

 

The talent definitely dictates what the manager can do.

When did I say talent doesn't effect what a manager can do? I'm judging him based on what he can control, so if he doesn't have the right players to execute a specific action then of course I don't hold that against him. However, if he tries to force an action that is unlikely to succeed because he doesn't have the right guys, then he should definitely receive criticism for that. A good manager adjusts his strategy based on the strengths and weaknesses of his players.

[Chicago White Sox]

Mostly the latter. Everyone needs a scapegoat and people, for some reason, refuse to judge decisions based on the information that was available at the time.

Please tell me what information was available that suggested Leury Garcia should ever bat leadoff?

 

He posted a -81 wRC+ over 10 games in that spot last year, there's really no excuse for the decision.

[Eminor3rd]

Please tell me what information was available that suggested Leury Garcia should ever bat leadoff?

 

He posted a -81 wRC+ over 10 games in that spot last year, there's really no excuse for the decision.

 

There wasn't any. It didn't matter. Team sucked, players sucked, no one on the team could get on base except Abreu. Who else was going to bat leadoff? It never mattered.

 

Also, my comment was directed toward criticism of his bullpen management.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

There wasn't any. It didn't matter. Team sucked, players sucked, no one on the team could get on base except Abreu. Who else was going to bat leadoff? It never mattered.

 

Also, my comment was directed toward criticism of his bullpen management.

 

That can also come from knowing your players. Some guys can't handle change. Some guys take change too seriously. Changing around your entire line up to replace the leadoff hitter could do more damage than just putting a bad hitter into the leadoff spot for a day.

[Eminor3rd]

That can also come from knowing your players. Some guys can't handle change. Some guys take change too seriously. Changing around your entire line up to replace the leadoff hitter could do more damage than just putting a bad hitter into the leadoff spot for a day.

 

Right, if Leury batted leadoff when Eaton was in the lineup, then I'd be crying bonkers. But I don't know, he could have moved Alexei there for a day I guess, but why mess with Alexei when he's miscast there too?

[southsider2k5]

Right, if Leury batted leadoff when Eaton was in the lineup, then I'd be crying bonkers. But I don't know, he could have moved Alexei there for a day I guess, but why mess with Alexei when he's miscast there too?

 

Alexei being an example of a guy who completely changed his hitting style to hit 2nd, as opposed to when he hit down the line up (didn't swing for power).

[Chicago White Sox]

There wasn't any. It didn't matter.

God I knew you were going to say something like this. A f***ing stupid decision is acceptable because the old "it didn't matter" excuse.

 

The problem is that these stupid little decisions can have a real impact on the outcome of individual games. Just because you're unable to quantify what that impact is doesn't mean it's not real. Context does matter and Leury Garcia batting leadoff in front of Abreu very well could of cost us a game last year.

[Chicago White Sox]

That can also come from knowing your players. Some guys can't handle change. Some guys take change too seriously. Changing around your entire line up to replace the leadoff hitter could do more damage than just putting a bad hitter into the leadoff spot for a day.

It was a lot more than 1 game, he had more starts in the leadoff spot than any other spot in the lineup. And the two hole was his next most frequent spot. More often than not, he batted right in front of Abreu when he started.

 

And we're talking about the WORST hitter in Major League Baseball last year. He posted a wRC+ of 2, the absolute lowest amongst players with 100+ plate appearances. Just watching him you could tell he was not a major league hitter. Under no circumstance should he ever bat leadoff. I don't care if someone is uncomfortable for a couple days, you're better off putting a halfway decent hitter in front of Abreu than Leury Garcia.

 

But you got to love Robin's logic, fast guys must bat at the top of the lineup regardless if they can hit or get on-base.

[southsider2k5]

It was a lot more than 1 game, he had more starts in the leadoff spot than any other spot in the lineup. And the two hole was his next most frequent spot. More often than not, he batted right in front of Abreu when he started.

 

And we're talking about the WORST hitter in Major League Baseball last year. He posted a wRC+ of 2, the absolute lowest amongst players with 100+ plate appearances. Just watching him you could tell he was not a major league hitter. Under no circumstance should he ever bat leadoff. I don't care if someone is uncomfortable for a couple days, you're better off putting a halfway decent hitter in front of Abreu than Leury Garcia.

But you got to love Robin's logic, fast guys must bat at the top of the lineup regardless if they can hit or get on-base.

 

You are making the assumption that this is his logic here. He never said anything close to that. Even if he did say it, he would never come out and say that such and such player would be a guaranteed 0-4 in the leadoff spot (or any other spot), because he mentally couldn't handle the challenge.

 

It is the same sort of thing between working the 7/8th inning and closing. By the numbers, it shouldn't make a difference. Between the ears, it does for many. If you move around an entire line up to cover the sitting of one guy, you exponentially increase the odds of someone being in a spot they aren't comfortable with.

[Chicago White Sox]

You are making the assumption that this is his logic here. He never said anything close to that. Even if he did say it, he would never come out and say that such and such player would be a guaranteed 0-4 in the leadoff spot (or any other spot), because he mentally couldn't handle the challenge.

 

It is the same sort of thing between working the 7/8th inning and closing. By the numbers, it shouldn't make a difference. Between the ears, it does for many. If you move around an entire line up to cover the sitting of one guy, you exponentially increase the odds of someone being in a spot they aren't comfortable with.

When you bat the worst hitter in baseball leadoff who also happens to be very fast, I don't think I'm assuming anything. This wasn't a one time thing and I'm sure I could find other speedy guys he's handled similarly if I wanted to.

[GreenSox]

Please tell me what information was available that suggested Leury Garcia should ever bat leadoff?

 

He posted a -81 wRC+ over 10 games in that spot last year, there's really no excuse for the decision.

It's indefensible. The manager's job is to manage the talent he has as best can. There were numerous better choices. The process matters...clown managing exacerbates personnel weaknesses.

Edited December 16, 2014 by GreenSox

[Kyyle23]

When you bat the worst hitter in baseball leadoff who also happens to be very fast, I don't think I'm assuming anything. This wasn't a one time thing and I'm sure I could find other speedy guys he's handled similarly if I wanted to.

 

Leury batted leadoff three times all season. Robin made a lot more questionable decisions than those three widely spread out chances to lead off

 

aside from three times that he batted second, he never batted above 8th

[Chicago White Sox]

Leury batted leadoff three times all season. Robin made a lot more questionable decisions than those three widely spread out chances to lead off

 

aside from three times that he batted second, he never batted above 8th

Unless I'm looking at something wrong, I see seven games he started in the leadoff spot and three in the two hole. 10 starts batting first or second.

 

And I totally misread the #9 spot numbers, he did get the bulk of his starts at the bottom of the lineup like he should have.

 

Regardless, 10 starts at the top of the lineup is poor decision-making. Any option would have been better than Leury Garcia, that's the point I'm making.

[Eminor3rd]

God I knew you were going to say something like this. A f***ing stupid decision is acceptable because the old "it didn't matter" excuse.

 

The problem is that these stupid little decisions can have a real impact on the outcome of individual games. Just because you're unable to quantify what that impact is doesn't mean it's not real. Context does matter and Leury Garcia batting leadoff in front of Abreu very well could of cost us a game last year.

 

Yes, you CAN quantify it. The average cost of an out is -0.299 runs across all base/out states. Given Leury's .268 OBP and Alexei's All-Star™ .305 OBP, Alexei could have been expected to avoid that cost four percent more often. FanGraphs game logs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5913&position=2B) show us that Leury had exactly 30 PA as a leadoff hitter last year. If Robin had magically known what Leury's OBP was, he could be expected to reach base 8.04 times out of the 30. Alexei, on the other hand, could have been expected to reach 9.15(!) times over those same 30 plate appearances. If luck was on his side, Alexei could have prevented that 0.299 run loss once!

 

Holy crap, batting Alexei instead of Leury at leadoff could have given us an almost 30% chance to score ONE more run last year! What if that one run could have been the difference between winning 73 and 74 games? It's reeling.

 

Except it's WAY less than that because Leury would have had to have batted somewhere else in the lineup. Oh, and many of those PA came as a pinch hitter, making the math even more ridiculous. Also, that run value for an out is from the steroid era, so it's actually too high. So no, it didn't and doesn't matter. At all.

 

I am a batting order nazi, and even I can admit that the difference in batting Leury first instead of some other slightly less bad leadoff option for like 4 games over the course of an entire season is not even REMOTELY close to being beneficial enough to shake up a lineup, even if you BARELY believe in there being a negative effect to shaking up a lineup.

 

You're grasping at straws here.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Kyyle23]

Unless I'm looking at something wrong, I see seven games he started in the leadoff spot and three in the two hole. 10 starts batting first or second.

 

And I totally misread the #9 spot numbers, he did get the bulk of his starts at the bottom of the lineup like he should have.

 

Regardless, 10 starts at the top of the lineup is poor decision-making. Any option would have been better than Leury Garcia, that's the point I'm making.

 

I skimmed through in my break and only found the three games that he started where he lead off, maybe he ended up there on a switch or maybe i missed a few. I know that i dont want him hitting there, but i also know that there was a period of time when injury to Eaton really messed up the lineup and it got even more complicated when Gordon was hurt and De Aza was batting .100.

 

I dont think Robin sat there and said "man, i really want Leury leading off", and I agree he probably put him there because of his speed, but I just think it is such a minute and inconsequential thing to complain about when you look at how last year unfolded.

[southsider2k5]

Yes, you CAN quantify it. The average cost of an out is -0.299 runs across all base/out states. Given Leury's .268 OBP and Alexei's All-Star™ .305 OBP, Alexei could have been expected to avoid that cost four percent more often. FanGraphs game logs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5913&position=2B) show us that Leury had exactly 30 PA as a leadoff hitter last year. If Robin had magically known what Leury's OBP was, he could be expected to reach base 8.04 times out of the 30. Alexei, on the other hand, could have been expected to reach 9.15(!) times over those same 30 plate appearances. If luck was on his side, Alexei could have prevented that 0.299 run loss once!

 

Holy crap, batting Alexei instead of Leury at leadoff could have given us an almost 30% chance to score ONE more run last year! What if that one run could have been the difference between winning 73 and 74 games? It's reeling.

 

Except it's WAY less than that because Leury would have had to have batted somewhere else in the lineup. Oh, and many of those PA came as a pinch hitter, making the math even more ridiculous. Also, that run value for an out is from the steroid era, so it's actually too high. So no, it didn't and doesn't matter. At all.

 

I am a batting order nazi, and even I can admit that the difference in batting Leury first instead of some other slightly less bad leadoff option for like 4 games over the course of an entire season is not even REMOTELY close to being beneficial enough to shake up a lineup, even if you BARELY believe in there being a negative effect to shaking up a lineup.

 

You're grasping at straws here.

 

Again assuming that the guy who you put into the leadoff spot doesn't mentally zone out because he isn't in his usual spot.

[Balta1701]

Again assuming that the guy who you put into the leadoff spot doesn't mentally zone out because he isn't in his usual spot.

And the bench player who already isn't a good hitter who is forced into the leadoff spot? What happens to him?

[Eminor3rd]

Again assuming that the guy who you put into the leadoff spot doesn't mentally zone out because he isn't in his usual spot.

 

 

And the bench player who already isn't a good hitter who is forced into the leadoff spot? What happens to him?

 

Right, he still hits and sucks elsewhere in the lineup, he just has like a 50% chance to have one fewer at bat. There's just no argument at all that it mattered or would ever matter when you're talking about a handful of starts.

[Chicago White Sox]

Yes, you CAN quantify it. The average cost of an out is -0.299 runs across all base/out states. Given Leury's .268 OBP and Alexei's All-Star™ .305 OBP, Alexei could have been expected to avoid that cost four percent more often. FanGraphs game logs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5913&position=2B) show us that Leury had exactly 30 PA as a leadoff hitter last year. If Robin had magically known what Leury's OBP was, he could be expected to reach base 8.04 times out of the 30. Alexei, on the other hand, could have been expected to reach 9.15(!) times over those same 30 plate appearances. If luck was on his side, Alexei could have prevented that 0.299 run loss once!

 

Holy crap, batting Alexei instead of Leury at leadoff could have given us an almost 30% chance to score ONE more run last year! What if that one run could have been the difference between winning 73 and 74 games? It's reeling.

 

Except it's WAY less than that because Leury would have had to have batted somewhere else in the lineup. Oh, and many of those PA came as a pinch hitter, making the math even more ridiculous. Also, that run value for an out is from the steroid era, so it's actually too high. So no, it didn't and doesn't matter. At all.

 

I am a batting order nazi, and even I can admit that the difference in batting Leury first instead of some other slightly less bad leadoff option for like 4 games over the course of an entire season is not even REMOTELY close to being beneficial enough to shake up a lineup, even if you BARELY believe in there being a negative effect to shaking up a lineup.

 

You're grasping at straws here.

I love you measure context by citing linear weights. Not all outs are created equal, which is you're completely ignoring. An out right in front of Jose Abreu is much more costly than an out by #7 hitter all else being equal. But hey, all outs = -.299 runs.

 

Regardless, Leury Garcia posted a .067 OBP in the leadoff spot last year. Alexei's career average in the leadoff spot is .339. So in just those 30 at-bats, Alexei could have reached base 8 more times. I'm not going to argue the significance of that, but that's a better estimate of the opportunity cost than the one you provided. You can't put the worst hitter in baseball in a high pressure spot and expect the same exact outcome.

 

My main point all along was that Robin makes numerous decisions that go against all available information. I cited a specific example that I find particularly mind-boggling and you basically said it's ok because "it doesn't matter". I'm not even sure why I'm wasting my time arguing this. Whether you think that particular decision was material or not, there's no denying it was a stupid decision. Managers should be evaluated by their decision-making process and somehow Robin Ventura thought the worst hitter in baseball was the best alternative for the leadoff spot on multiple occasions.