Why the White Sox will be a LOT better in 2015

[VAfan]

I saw Jake's "Are we really that good?" post that used Fangraphs projections to suggest we all tap the brakes on our excitement for the 2015 White Sox season. But rather than post in that thread and have this analysis lost, I decided it was worth starting my own post to articulate why I think the Sox should be much, much better after the offseason we've had so far. And, by the way, I don't think Rick Hahn or the Sox are near being "done" with the offseason. Sure, we can't expect more of the kind of major moves that we've seen. But we also can't expect the team brass to sit on its hands and think our team is complete.

 

I'm going to do this comparison in descending order of impact.

 

1. THE BULLPEN

 

Let's look at the saves, saves blown, and losses out of our bullpen in 2014. I'll start with the 4 guys who are almost certain to be back.

 

Petricka 14 of 18, 1-6 record. 73 innings, 2.96 ERA

Putnam 6 of 7, 5-3 record. 54.2 innings, 1.98 ERA

Guerra 1 of 6, 2-4 record. 46.1 innings, 2.91 ERA

Webb 0 of 2, 6-5 record. 67.2 innings, 3.99 ERA

 

Next are two guys still on the 40-man, but who may not have roles.

 

Surkamp 0 of 0, 2-0 record. 24.1 innings, 4.81 ERA

Cleto 0 of 0, 0-1 record. 29.1 innings, 4.60 ERA

 

Then here are the guys who are gone.

 

Bellisario 8 of 12, 4-8 record. 66.1 innings, 5.56 ERA

Lindstrom 6 of 10, 2-2 record. 34 innings, 5.03 ERA

Downs 1 of 1, 0-2 record. 23.2 innings, 6.08 ERA

Veal 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 6 innings, 7.50 ERA

Thompson 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 5.1 innings 10.13 ERA

Snodgrass 0 of 0, 0-0 record. 2.1 innings, 15.43 ERA

Francisco 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 3.2 innings, 12.27 ERA

Jones 0 of 1, 0-0 record. 0 innings, 2 hits, 4 runs.

Bassit pitched 1 game in relief

Noesi pitched 1 game in relief

Carroll pitched 7 games in relief

Rienzo pitched 7 games in relief

Adam Dunn and Leury Garcia also pitched 1 inning each in relief with ERAs of 9 and 18, respectively.

 

To replace them, we have added:

 

Robertson, 39 of 44, 4-5 record. 64.1 innings, 3.08 ERA

Duke, 0 of 4, 5-1 record. 58.2 innings, 2.45 ERA

Jennings, 0 of 2, 0-2 record, 40.1 innings, 1.34 ERA

 

Bullpen Analysis.

 

We've eliminated 142 innings out of 10 guys (not counting Bassit, Noesi, Carroll and Rienzo, whose bullpen numbers I couldn't quickly isolate), and added back 3 guys who pitched 163.1 innings.

 

The ERA of everyone who is out was over 5, and the highest ERA of anyone new is 3.08.

 

The new guys were 39 of 50 in save opptys, with a 9-7 record. The gone guys were 15 of 24, with a 6-12 record. But you also change Petricka's role, with 4 blown saves and 6 losses, and Guerra is unlikely to get the chance to blow 5 saves and lose 4 games.

 

I'm sure there are many ways of looking at this and quantifying it. But it seems to me that the Sox should be at least 8-12 games better in 2015 just by having a better bullpen. We've chucked 12 losses from guys with ERAs over 5 who pitched over 123 innings, and re-slotted guys who blew 9 saves and lost another 10 games because they weren't ready to close or finish games. That's 18 blown saves and 22 losses. In their place, we have guys who lost 7 games between them.

 

We saw in 2014 the value of a great bullpen when KC and SF squared off in the World Series. The Sox pen is not likely to be that good, but it will be good enough to help us win a lot more games and help us contend.

 

2. JEFF SAMARDZIJA

 

Here are the various starters we used last year who won't be back.

 

Carroll, 19 starts, 106 IP, 4-10 as starter, 5.40 ERA

Rienzo, 11 starts, 57.1 IP, 4-5 as starter, 5.97 ERA

Bassitt, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 3.77 ERA

Johnson, 5 starts, 23.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 6.46. ERA

Paulino, 4 starts, 18.1 IP, 0-2 as starter, 11.29 ERA

Leesman, 1 start, 2.2 IP, 0-1 as starter, 20.25 ERA

 

That's 6 guys who went 10-20, all except Bassitt with ERA's well over 5.

 

Here are Jeff Samardzija's numbers.

 

Samardzija, 33 starts, 219.2 IP, 7-13 as starter (2-7 with Cubs), 2.99 ERA

 

So, we are replacing 46 starts with 33 starts. But Sale only had 26, and Nieto 27, so that gives you another 13 starts if they get to 33 each. The ERA goes from over 5 for everyone but Bassitt, to around 3 for Samardzija, less for that for Sale, and around 4.4 for Nieto. We aren't carrying 20 losses. And instead of facing #2 starters, Quintana now slots in against #3 starters, which should improve his W-L record.

 

This could be another 7-10 game swing. We'll still need some depth because we can't expect perfect health from all 5 starters, but we aren't going to be trotting out Carroll and Rienzo for 30 starts next year. If Samardzija goes 15-8 instead of their 8-15, that’s 7 games in the standings.

 

3. A REAL #2 HITTER

 

Here's how our #2 hitters fared last year.

 

Beckham 269 AB, .223, .277, .342.

Ramirez 203 AB, .251, .280, .392.

Semiem 116 AB, .198, .262, .319.

Gillaspie had 23 ABs at #2, L. Garcia had 17, but I'm not counting them.

 

For the top 3 guys, that's 582 ABs in the #2 hole. None of them managed to get on even 30% of the time. Pathetic.

 

Here's Melky Cabrera's stat line last year in the #2 hole.

 

Cabrera 455 AB, .288, .343, .440.

 

He also had 74 ABs leading off, and 48 hitting 3rd. In both places, he posted better numbers. But if you add them in, that’s 577 ABs for Cabrera, almost exactly the number for our 3 guys.

 

Having a real #2 hitter will not only help Adam Eaton and anyone else on base ahead of him, but it will certainly give Jose Abreu and those behind him more RBI opptys with men on base.

 

Over the course of 600 plate appearances, an OBP of around .275 gives you 165 times on base, and 435 outs. An OBP of .343 gets you 206 times on base, and 394 outs. Clearly, Melky Cabrera is going to help the Sox offense significantly.

 

Also, Ramirez was .273, .305, .408, so he hit much better elsewhere in the lineup. Indeed, in limited action, he raked when hitting #7 or #8, which is closer to where he'll hit next year. This is just an added bonus.

 

I'm not going to quantify the number of wins we might gain here, but clearly a more productive offense will give our improved bullpen the chance to save more games.

 

4. LaRoche v. Dunn and Konerko

 

Here's Dunn's and Konerko's stat lines from last year with Chicago.

 

Dunn. 106 games, 363 ABs, 20 HRs, 54 RBI, 65 BB, 132 Ks, .220, .340, .433.

Konerko. 81 games, 208 ABs, 5 HRs, 22 RBI, 10 BB, 51 Ks .207, .254, .317

 

Here's Adam LaRoche's numbers from last year.

 

LaRoche. 140 games, 494 ABs, 26 HRs, 92 RBI, 82 BB, 108 Ks .259, .362, .455

 

And this is with LaRoche getting 137 ABs against lefties, where he posts a .204, .284, .336 line.

 

Clearly, LaRoche is going to provide much better protection for Abreu, even if the Sox don't have a great platoon partner for him. If the Sox get someone who can rake against lefties, this slot will be vastly improbed. We're also looking at a dramatic drop in the K rate.

 

I have no estimate for how many extra wins this will get us, but it will be a significant boost to the offense.

 

5. Better D

 

This is a bonus 5th reason, but I'm not going to run any stats here. Let's just say having Melky in LF is much better than having Viciedo out there. We should also be better at 1B when LaRoche takes the field. The Sox have more work to do on the defensive side, but they will be better.

 

Conclusion

 

I've taken no account of the kind of stats you stat geeks love, so I'm sure I'll be ripped by some, if not many, for my "analysis." That's fine with me. I'll stand by my conclusions.

 

A team with 7 bullpen pitchers with ERAs around 3 or below (only Webb is higher) is going to be WAY better than one with lots if 5+ ERA guys who blow saves and lose games. And it's going to make a MASSIVE difference in the W-L record of the 2015 Sox.

 

Similarly, putting a high-quality #2 guy in for a bunch of 5+ ERA scrubs, and slotting down last year's #2 to #3 is going to help the Sox win a lot more games.

 

On the offensive side, we had to had one of the worst combos of #2 hitters in baseball last year, and now have one of the better ones. So the guy in front of Jose Abreu is going to be tons better. Ditto for the guy behind Abreu. We also move Alexei down in the order where he hit much better last year.

 

It's possible I'm double counting the win improvements from the pen and Samardzija, but overall, I'd say 15 more victories, from 73-88, should be what we should expect from these changes. And there's every likelihood the Sox aren't done and will keep working on the bench to get a better defensive 4th outfielder, right handed platoon options for Gillaspie and LaRoche, and maybe even an upgrade at 2B.

 

The Sox just signed Brad Penny on a minor league deal, so you know they are trying to build depth into the rotation.

 

I think we'll be contenders in 2015.

 

GO SOX!!!

 

[Harry Chappas]

Thank you.

[AlSoxfan]

I also figure we'll be 15 games better this yr. as long as we stay healthy

[southsider2k5]

Samardjiza now working on some free meals with some local hot spot mentions.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The difference is Jake's reference to Fangraphs projection is heavily based on future performance indicators such as FIP and BABIP that regresses/progresses outlier performances. Your analysis is heavily based on past performances. While I think one analysis is more accurate than the other, I do think that there are variables not accounted for in both analysis that could end up favoring the Sox.

[bmags]

I have to see, even the pessimistic projection from Jake seems to think we are at about 78-82 wins.

 

That means with 2 wildcard teams we will at least be in the hunt for a while. Meaningful baseball is fun baseball. (actually that's not true, it's nervewrecking and infuriating to lose, but at least it's baseball you watch).

[witesoxfan]

There is a lot of this logic with which I do not disagree and can relate, but the usage of blown saves and W-L for the relievers is pretty silly. Blown saves from middle relievers tell you very little and they are incredibly vague as it is. If a previous reliever loads the bases with no outs in a 1 run game, the new reliever comes on, induces a double play and strikes the next guy out (leading to 1 run), he is credited with a blown save. That is not usually the scenario, but that scenario exists. Also, the Sox were a terrible team last year and brought in 3 relievers from teams who were decent to good. Their W-L record being better ultimately means nothing.

 

Frankly, if you had just said "they brought in 3 relievers who were good to very good last year to replace 3 relievers who were crappy to really crappy," I'd have had no qualms with this.

 

I'm currently expecting about 84-86 wins, and I think that could easily be way higher.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There is a lot of this logic with which I do not disagree and can relate, but the usage of blown saves and W-L for the relievers is pretty silly. Blown saves from middle relievers tell you very little and they are incredibly vague as it is. If a previous reliever loads the bases with no outs in a 1 run game, the new reliever comes on, induces a double play and strikes the next guy out (leading to 1 run), he is credited with a blown save. That is not usually the scenario, but that scenario exists. Also, the Sox were a terrible team last year and brought in 3 relievers from teams who were decent to good. Their W-L record being better ultimately means nothing.

 

Frankly, if you had just said "they brought in 3 relievers who were good to very good last year to replace 3 relievers who were crappy to really crappy," I'd have had no qualms with this.

 

I'm currently expecting about 84-86 wins, and I think that could easily be way higher.

Basically the new bullpen will not walk as many guys and will K way more . Though Hahn loves groundball pitchers, I'm sure he realized that a good bullpen should pile up the K's. Robertson's and Duke's K's/9 indicate as much.

[witesoxfan]

Basically the new bullpen will not walk as many guys and will K way more . Though Hahn loves groundball pitchers, I'm sure he realized that a good bullpen should pile up the K's. Robertson's and Duke's K's/9 indicate as much.

 

Both are groundball pitchers too, especially if you believe in Duke, who put up a 57.7 GB% and 2.83 GB/FB last year.

[Andy the Clown]

The bullpen is the biggest wildcard. The current projection systems do not adequately weigh their significance. We could go from one of baseball's worst bullpens to one of its best. The impact there is greater than the sum of the parts.

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

This is a fantastic analysis!!!

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

Doesn't the original baseball stats guru, Nate Silver, now advocate using Bayesian statistical methods rather than the regression methods used by places such as Fan Graph? Fan Graph's methods are really backward looking whereas Bayesian methods are both forward and backward looking. Interestingly enough, the more subjective and backward and forward looking Bayesian methods are more likely to yield the kind of conclusions that a traditional analysis might yield.

 

Also, I loved the test Nate did that pitted his advanced stat metrics against Baseball America's more old fashion methods to see who more accurately predicted which minor league prospects actually turned out to be good. Baseball America did slightly better in the test, and Nate actually expected that to happen. Of course, that did not surprise Nate because the purpose of the Billy Beane or Scott Hahn use of advanced stats is not to replace traditional analyses but to complement it, and the Baseball America predictions in effect tacitly combined traditional and (to some extent) advanced statistical analysis. In a sense, the main role for advanced stats is to serve as a sort of tie breaker after traditional analysis is first done. It also can be used to try to optimize how to allocate ones budget. There is a subtle difference between doing that and how some try to give a generic interpretation to things such as using WAR metrics to determine who is a better player or team.

 

In short, for those who like a more traditional analysis, take heart that the most path breaking statistical analyses may come to some of the similar conclusions that your old fashioned perspectives tend to yield. In any case, that is my 2 cents on part of this issue.

 

 

[Chisoxfn]

Doesn't the original baseball stats guru, Nate Silver, now advocate using Bayesian statistical methods rather than the regression methods used by places such as Fan Graph? Fan Graph's methods are really backward looking whereas Bayesian methods are both forward and backward looking. Interestingly enough, the more subjective and backward and forward looking Bayesian methods are more likely to yield the kind of conclusions that a traditional analysis might yield.

 

Also, I loved the test Nate did that pitted his advanced stat metrics against Baseball America's more old fashion methods to see who more accurately predicted which minor league prospects actually turned out to be good. Baseball America did slightly better in the test, and Nate actually expected that to happen. Of course, that did not surprise Nate because the purpose of the Billy Beane or Scott Hahn use of advanced stats is not to replace traditional analyses but to complement it, and the Baseball America predictions in effect tacitly combined traditional and (to some extent) advanced statistical analysis. In a sense, the main role for advanced stats is to serve as a sort of tie breaker after traditional analysis is first done. It also can be used to try to optimize how to allocate ones budget. There is a subtle difference between doing that and how some try to give a generic interpretation to things such as using WAR metrics to determine who is a better player or team.

 

In short, for those who like a more traditional analysis, take heart that the most path breaking statistical analyses may come to some of the similar conclusions that your old fashioned perspectives tend to yield. In any case, that is my 2 cents on part of this issue.

Good points and interesting insight and completely agree with the point regarding the use of stats to compliment traditional analysis (not to replace it). You should post more!!!

[RME JICO]

VAfan,

Great analysis, just doing a simple WAR comparison with the additions and subtractions, it looks like we will improve by about 16 games according to WAR if players perform comparable to last year. New pitchers adding 7.2, pitchers gone giving us 4.1 back (pitching nets us over 11 games), and new batters adding over 5 and subtractions almost a wash.

 

It feels like Bellisario alone will give us about 10 wins back.

[SoCalSox]

Although there is no sabermetrics (which I love), I feel this is a more sense-able approach.

 

In 2005 I was able to go in confidently to the season with simple projections such as this and concluded that the Sox had a playoff team (barring health).

 

Pessimistic or optimistic, this team is greatly improved.

 

By my projections, I have this team projected at about 90-92 wins and built for a playoff run due to their pitching.

 

Defense has improved, offense has improved, starting pitching has improved and the relievers have greatly improved.

 

With Robertson alone, this would have been close to a .500 team last year. Add in two more relievers and Samardzija and this is close to a 85 win team. Melky not only adds positives but takes out prior negatives like Tank's fielding the terrible production from the two slot.

 

Something that seems to be lost on some is that not only did this team improve with additions, these additions helped players like Ramirez (out of the two hole) and Petricka and Putnam can slide into set up roles, where they fit much better.

 

Overall, this team has added some big time players, while putting other players in much better roles to succeed.

[LDF]

I saw Jake's "Are we really that good?" post that used Fangraphs projections to suggest we all tap the brakes on our excitement for the 2015 White Sox season. But rather than post in that thread and have this analysis lost, I decided it was worth starting my own post to articulate why I think the Sox should be much, much better after the offseason we've had so far. And, by the way, I don't think Rick Hahn or the Sox are near being "done" with the offseason. Sure, we can't expect more of the kind of major moves that we've seen. But we also can't expect the team brass to sit on its hands and think our team is complete.

 

I'm going to do this comparison in descending order of impact.

 

1. THE BULLPEN

 

Let's look at the saves, saves blown, and losses out of our bullpen in 2014. I'll start with the 4 guys who are almost certain to be back.

 

Petricka 14 of 18, 1-6 record. 73 innings, 2.96 ERA

Putnam 6 of 7, 5-3 record. 54.2 innings, 1.98 ERA

Guerra 1 of 6, 2-4 record. 46.1 innings, 2.91 ERA

Webb 0 of 2, 6-5 record. 67.2 innings, 3.99 ERA

 

Next are two guys still on the 40-man, but who may not have roles.

 

Surkamp 0 of 0, 2-0 record. 24.1 innings, 4.81 ERA

Cleto 0 of 0, 0-1 record. 29.1 innings, 4.60 ERA

 

Then here are the guys who are gone.

 

Bellisario 8 of 12, 4-8 record. 66.1 innings, 5.56 ERA

Lindstrom 6 of 10, 2-2 record. 34 innings, 5.03 ERA

Downs 1 of 1, 0-2 record. 23.2 innings, 6.08 ERA

Veal 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 6 innings, 7.50 ERA

Thompson 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 5.1 innings 10.13 ERA

Snodgrass 0 of 0, 0-0 record. 2.1 innings, 15.43 ERA

Francisco 0 of 0, 0-0 record, 3.2 innings, 12.27 ERA

Jones 0 of 1, 0-0 record. 0 innings, 2 hits, 4 runs.

Bassit pitched 1 game in relief

Noesi pitched 1 game in relief

Carroll pitched 7 games in relief

Rienzo pitched 7 games in relief

Adam Dunn and Leury Garcia also pitched 1 inning each in relief with ERAs of 9 and 18, respectively.

 

To replace them, we have added:

 

Robertson, 39 of 44, 4-5 record. 64.1 innings, 3.08 ERA

Duke, 0 of 4, 5-1 record. 58.2 innings, 2.45 ERA

Jennings, 0 of 2, 0-2 record, 40.1 innings, 1.34 ERA

 

Bullpen Analysis.

 

We've eliminated 142 innings out of 10 guys (not counting Bassit, Noesi, Carroll and Rienzo, whose bullpen numbers I couldn't quickly isolate), and added back 3 guys who pitched 163.1 innings.

 

The ERA of everyone who is out was over 5, and the highest ERA of anyone new is 3.08.

 

The new guys were 39 of 50 in save opptys, with a 9-7 record. The gone guys were 15 of 24, with a 6-12 record. But you also change Petricka's role, with 4 blown saves and 6 losses, and Guerra is unlikely to get the chance to blow 5 saves and lose 4 games.

 

I'm sure there are many ways of looking at this and quantifying it. But it seems to me that the Sox should be at least 8-12 games better in 2015 just by having a better bullpen. We've chucked 12 losses from guys with ERAs over 5 who pitched over 123 innings, and re-slotted guys who blew 9 saves and lost another 10 games because they weren't ready to close or finish games. That's 18 blown saves and 22 losses. In their place, we have guys who lost 7 games between them.

 

We saw in 2014 the value of a great bullpen when KC and SF squared off in the World Series. The Sox pen is not likely to be that good, but it will be good enough to help us win a lot more games and help us contend.

 

2. JEFF SAMARDZIJA

 

Here are the various starters we used last year who won't be back.

 

Carroll, 19 starts, 106 IP, 4-10 as starter, 5.40 ERA

Rienzo, 11 starts, 57.1 IP, 4-5 as starter, 5.97 ERA

Bassitt, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 3.77 ERA

Johnson, 5 starts, 23.2 IP, 1-1 as starter, 6.46. ERA

Paulino, 4 starts, 18.1 IP, 0-2 as starter, 11.29 ERA

Leesman, 1 start, 2.2 IP, 0-1 as starter, 20.25 ERA

 

That's 6 guys who went 10-20, all except Bassitt with ERA's well over 5.

 

Here are Jeff Samardzija's numbers.

 

Samardzija, 33 starts, 219.2 IP, 7-13 as starter (2-7 with Cubs), 2.99 ERA

 

So, we are replacing 46 starts with 33 starts. But Sale only had 26, and Nieto 27, so that gives you another 13 starts if they get to 33 each. The ERA goes from over 5 for everyone but Bassitt, to around 3 for Samardzija, less for that for Sale, and around 4.4 for Nieto. We aren't carrying 20 losses. And instead of facing #2 starters, Quintana now slots in against #3 starters, which should improve his W-L record.

 

This could be another 7-10 game swing. We'll still need some depth because we can't expect perfect health from all 5 starters, but we aren't going to be trotting out Carroll and Rienzo for 30 starts next year. If Samardzija goes 15-8 instead of their 8-15, that’s 7 games in the standings.

 

3. A REAL #2 HITTER

 

Here's how our #2 hitters fared last year.

 

Beckham 269 AB, .223, .277, .342.

Ramirez 203 AB, .251, .280, .392.

Semiem 116 AB, .198, .262, .319.

Gillaspie had 23 ABs at #2, L. Garcia had 17, but I'm not counting them.

 

For the top 3 guys, that's 582 ABs in the #2 hole. None of them managed to get on even 30% of the time. Pathetic.

 

Here's Melky Cabrera's stat line last year in the #2 hole.

 

Cabrera 455 AB, .288, .343, .440.

 

He also had 74 ABs leading off, and 48 hitting 3rd. In both places, he posted better numbers. But if you add them in, that’s 577 ABs for Cabrera, almost exactly the number for our 3 guys.

 

Having a real #2 hitter will not only help Adam Eaton and anyone else on base ahead of him, but it will certainly give Jose Abreu and those behind him more RBI opptys with men on base.

 

Over the course of 600 plate appearances, an OBP of around .275 gives you 165 times on base, and 435 outs. An OBP of .343 gets you 206 times on base, and 394 outs. Clearly, Melky Cabrera is going to help the Sox offense significantly.

 

Also, Ramirez was .273, .305, .408, so he hit much better elsewhere in the lineup. Indeed, in limited action, he raked when hitting #7 or #8, which is closer to where he'll hit next year. This is just an added bonus.

 

I'm not going to quantify the number of wins we might gain here, but clearly a more productive offense will give our improved bullpen the chance to save more games.

 

4. LaRoche v. Dunn and Konerko

 

Here's Dunn's and Konerko's stat lines from last year with Chicago.

 

Dunn. 106 games, 363 ABs, 20 HRs, 54 RBI, 65 BB, 132 Ks, .220, .340, .433.

Konerko. 81 games, 208 ABs, 5 HRs, 22 RBI, 10 BB, 51 Ks .207, .254, .317

 

Here's Adam LaRoche's numbers from last year.

 

LaRoche. 140 games, 494 ABs, 26 HRs, 92 RBI, 82 BB, 108 Ks .259, .362, .455

 

And this is with LaRoche getting 137 ABs against lefties, where he posts a .204, .284, .336 line.

 

Clearly, LaRoche is going to provide much better protection for Abreu, even if the Sox don't have a great platoon partner for him. If the Sox get someone who can rake against lefties, this slot will be vastly improbed. We're also looking at a dramatic drop in the K rate.

 

I have no estimate for how many extra wins this will get us, but it will be a significant boost to the offense.

 

5. Better D

 

This is a bonus 5th reason, but I'm not going to run any stats here. Let's just say having Melky in LF is much better than having Viciedo out there. We should also be better at 1B when LaRoche takes the field. The Sox have more work to do on the defensive side, but they will be better.

 

Conclusion

 

I've taken no account of the kind of stats you stat geeks love, so I'm sure I'll be ripped by some, if not many, for my "analysis." That's fine with me. I'll stand by my conclusions.

 

A team with 7 bullpen pitchers with ERAs around 3 or below (only Webb is higher) is going to be WAY better than one with lots if 5+ ERA guys who blow saves and lose games. And it's going to make a MASSIVE difference in the W-L record of the 2015 Sox.

 

Similarly, putting a high-quality #2 guy in for a bunch of 5+ ERA scrubs, and slotting down last year's #2 to #3 is going to help the Sox win a lot more games.

 

On the offensive side, we had to had one of the worst combos of #2 hitters in baseball last year, and now have one of the better ones. So the guy in front of Jose Abreu is going to be tons better. Ditto for the guy behind Abreu. We also move Alexei down in the order where he hit much better last year.

 

It's possible I'm double counting the win improvements from the pen and Samardzija, but overall, I'd say 15 more victories, from 73-88, should be what we should expect from these changes. And there's every likelihood the Sox aren't done and will keep working on the bench to get a better defensive 4th outfielder, right handed platoon options for Gillaspie and LaRoche, and maybe even an upgrade at 2B.

 

The Sox just signed Brad Penny on a minor league deal, so you know they are trying to build depth into the rotation.

 

I think we'll be contenders in 2015.

 

GO SOX!!!

 

you can tell that you thought long and hard on this, well done. great job.

[flavum]

I just want 99 starts and 660 innings from Sale, Samardzija, and Quintana. If that happens, the rest will fall in place...unless the lineup gets killed with injuries.

[VAfan]

There is a lot of this logic with which I do not disagree and can relate, but the usage of blown saves and W-L for the relievers is pretty silly. Blown saves from middle relievers tell you very little and they are incredibly vague as it is. If a previous reliever loads the bases with no outs in a 1 run game, the new reliever comes on, induces a double play and strikes the next guy out (leading to 1 run), he is credited with a blown save. That is not usually the scenario, but that scenario exists. Also, the Sox were a terrible team last year and brought in 3 relievers from teams who were decent to good. Their W-L record being better ultimately means nothing.

 

Frankly, if you had just said "they brought in 3 relievers who were good to very good last year to replace 3 relievers who were crappy to really crappy," I'd have had no qualms with this.

 

I'm currently expecting about 84-86 wins, and I think that could easily be way higher.

 

I just listed blown saves. I didn't rely on them. It's the bullpen W-L record that should improve, and the addition of lots more actual saves, and both of those translate directly into wins.

[witesoxfan]

I just listed blown saves. I didn't rely on them. It's the bullpen W-L record that should improve, and the addition of lots more actual saves, and both of those translate directly into wins.

 

The bullpen W-L should/will improve because the entire team is better and the pitchers themselves are better. It will not tell us anything about the quality of the pitching itself, because for all we know, the best reliever may end up with the worst W-L because he is used in the tightest situations.

 

Like I said, you made some really good points here and I don't disagree with the inherent logic behind any of it at all. This team will be better than last year's but until they get on the field, it will be hard to know exactly.