2015 Sox Potential

[LDF]

i always have a horrible time trying to think of titles, so i am going

here, with this one.

 

i have a series of questions that i find confusing in this past week after

the signing of Melky. Granted that Sox need to acquire bench players

but i am not counting on that position now.

 

First question, what is the profile of C. Rodon as a pitcher, is he a #1

type front end pitcher, a #3 kind of pitcher has streaks of a #1 but at

times pitches like a #4. Or is he the backend of the rotation.

 

now i am not going to compare it to the sox rotation but to the avg

team rotation.

 

this will lead me to more of the other series of questions i have.

 

pls put up with this.

[Balta1701]

Carlos Rodon, if he reaches his potential, is a #1, top of the rotation level pitching talent.

 

With a guy who hasn't even pitched at high levels you hesitate to say that anything worse than that would be a disappointment, but he was viewed as a top of the rotation guy coming out of college and nothing we saw from him in the minors last year would change that.

 

You wouldn't expect him to be incredible out of the gates in 2015 or maybe not even make the big leagues because you shouldn't hold any pitcher to that standard so rapidly after being drafted, but the "penciled in" path for him would have him on par with the other top of the rotation lefties on this roster within a few seasons.

[witesoxfan]

Carlos Rodon's ceiling is that of an ace. However, he hasn't even thrown 25 professional innings yet, so if they go a little slow with him (whether that's because he's not ready or they are saving some service time has yet to be seen, but it ultimately may work hand in hand).

 

Between the minors and majors, I'd be surprised if he surpassed 160-170 innings.

[cabiness42]

Rodon's career ceiling is at or near the level Chris Sale is performing now, a Top 10 pitcher in all of baseball.

 

Rodon's ceiling for 2015 is more along the lines of 160 innings of being on the level of a typical #2-3 starter.

[Balta1701]

I hope whoever the #5 is pitches well enough where we don't have to worry about calling Rodon up until further down the line. I'd rather he take care of his arm and work on his command than come up right away and learn on the fly.

My ideal situation for Rodon would be what David Price did in his age 22/first year out of the draft season. He pitched >100 innings in the minors, jumped up a couple levels, then was called up to the bullpen with the september callups and got a chance to pitch in the playoffs. Probably try to give Rodon about 40-50 more innings than Price got since Rodon's arm is a bit more stretched out, but if we wanted to do what was best for his development that's the path I'd look at.

[Eminor3rd]

What is the argument that starting a guy in the bullpen makes sense?

[iamshack]

What is the argument that starting a guy in the bullpen makes sense?

Because it worked with Sale...

[Balta1701]

What is the argument that starting a guy in the bullpen makes sense?

1. Get him to 150 innings when his peak previous innings total is about 130.

2. Get him those innings against lesser competition so that he's building up his arm and working on his offspeed stuff but doing so without having to face top level MLB competition/extremely high stress levels.

3. Get him exposed to big league hitters in a controlled way, where he's only seeing how they handle his fastball and maybe one offspeed pitch, so that he has a bit of experience against big leaguers to fall back on this offseason.

4. Add in a few extra innings in a controlled way at the end of the year to keep building up his arm but without pushing him so far.

5. Maybe win a few extra games in September by bringing up a lefty who can throw in the low/mid 90s with really good stuff to the pen.

6. Maybe get him experience in a playoff hunt if things don't fall apart beforehand.

[southsider2k5]

Because it worked with Sale...

 

Buehrle and Garland did it as well.

[Balta1701]

Buehrle and Garland did it as well.

In 2000, Buehrle got 120 innings in the minors and another 50 in the big leagues, with both starts and bullpen work in the bigs. That I'm ok with.

[flavum]

I hate the idea of Rodon in the pen at all in any level. He's a starter.

 

Ease him into the season in Birmingham or Charlotte. Maybe 3-4 innings per start in April, then 5-6 innings in May.

 

By June 1, he's made 10-11 minor league starts at about 50 innings. Then see where he's at, and he'll have plenty in the tank for the rest of the season if the Sox need him.

[elrockinMT]

Carlos Rodon's ceiling is that of an ace. However, he hasn't even thrown 25 professional innings yet, so if they go a little slow with him (whether that's because he's not ready or they are saving some service time has yet to be seen, but it ultimately may work hand in hand).

 

Between the minors and majors, I'd be surprised if he surpassed 160-170 innings.

 

 

I agree with this but I would be surprised if he is on the team until September call ups. We have two new lefty relievers and the talk was he would be in the bullpen to start his career or at least the first year. Rodon has great potential and a high ceiling but as stated only 25 innings of professional innings. We have 5 starters minimum now and here are left handed. It just seems to make sense they let Rodon get a bit more seasoning. But, who knows what ST brings.

[Chicago White Sox]

I may be in the minority here, but I want him with the big league club ASAP while getting that extra year of team control. Not sure if that's mid April or early May, but I truly believe he's a better starting option than both Danks & Noesei and I don't think we can afford to wait 3+ months for him to replace one of those guys in the rotation if we're serious about competing. Also, I don't think spending a full season with Cooper as a starter in the majors is going to be any worse for his development than dominating minor league hitters for most of the year. Rodon is a special talent and IMO he should be pushed along more aggressively.

[Chicago White Sox]

I may be in the minority here, but I want him with the big league club ASAP while getting that extra year of team control. Not sure if that's mid April or early May, but I truly believe he's a better starting option than both Danks & Noesei and I don't think we can afford to wait 3+ months for him to replace one of those guys in the rotation if we're serious about competing. Also, I don't think spending a full season with Cooper as a starter in the majors is going to be any worse for his development than dominating minor league hitters for most of the year. Rodon is a special talent and IMO he should be pushed along more aggressively.

[LDF]

 

thanks for all the response in this first part of what has been bothering me.

 

i would honestly say that Rodon profile to be a #3 pitcher or a #2. but as

many have stated how can i say this when there isn't a good rpt of him

from his experience in minor league, i will flip this and say how can anyone

say he is a #1 ace, based on the same replies. don't get me wrong i truly

hope i am wrong and he becomes a #1. but that may not happen next yr,

i hope the sox will take their time with him.

 

now for the real question, as it stands, can the sox make the playoff...

>> i will say yes,

>> can they do well.... yes, if several factors falls in place.

>> where do they need help ....... pitching.

 

yes the sox are solid and as others have stated, the sox are weak in

several positions. Cat, 2B and yes even 3B. the bench will be address

i have no fear of that.

 

the biggest problem is not getting the players but what or how much more

will owners be willing to spend.

 

i think the sox have a great chance getting out of the AL conf but can they

really hold their ground against SFO and their pitching???

 

SFO has fortified themselves while the Sox has solidified the team by

addressing the weakness of the team. the sox need to address several

yrs of rebuilding in 1 offseason. it is a fact, and this is a great time to address

it.

 

 

[LDF]

I may be in the minority here, but I want him with the big league club ASAP while getting that extra year of team control. Not sure if that's mid April or early May, but I truly believe he's a better starting option than both Danks & Noesei and I don't think we can afford to wait 3+ months for him to replace one of those guys in the rotation if we're serious about competing. Also, I don't think spending a full season with Cooper as a starter in the majors is going to be any worse for his development than dominating minor league hitters for most of the year. Rodon is a special talent and IMO he should be pushed along more aggressively.

 

the sox can not rely on an unknown and with hopes he can

do great. not with the playoff and more at stake.

 

this sox team is in total shambles before Hahn took over and the sox

are against a stop watch to improve.

[witesoxfan]

the sox can not rely on an unknown and with hopes he can

do great. not with the playoff and more at stake.

 

this sox team is in total shambles before Hahn took over and the sox

are against a stop watch to improve.

 

I understand his ideology completely, Carlos Rodon is a far more talented pitcher and would likely produce results much better than either Danks or Noesi, but he's also a guy who will be around a long time plus there are service time restrictions that need to be considered as well.

 

If it weren't for service time loopholes, Carlos Rodon would probably be breaking camp with the big league club and learning on the job.

[LDF]

I understand his ideology completely, Carlos Rodon is a far more talented pitcher and would likely produce results much better than either Danks or Noesi, but he's also a guy who will be around a long time plus there are service time restrictions that need to be considered as well.

 

If it weren't for service time loopholes, Carlos Rodon would probably be breaking camp with the big league club and learning on the job.

 

oh i understand and the excitement of Rodon getting to the majors and to

establish himself. however the sox do not have that luxury to properly groom

him. the sox are in need to get to the final missing pieces to make this

team competitive to meet the other teams who are favored to be in the

playoff.

[witesoxfan]

oh i understand and the excitement of Rodon getting to the majors and to

establish himself. however the sox do not have that luxury to properly groom

him. the sox are in need to get to the final missing pieces to make this

team competitive to meet the other teams who are favored to be in the

playoff.

 

Properly groom him? I don't think it's necessarily a luxury, I think it might be a necessity. I think Danks and Noesi can be serviceable starters, but if they are not, Rodon may ultimately prove to be the best option.

[BigFinn]

Carlos Rodon's college stats can be found at the Baseball Cube (dot com).

 

In his freshman year Rodon pitch 114 2/3 innings; his sophomore year, 132 1/3 innings; last year combined, 123 1/3. The White Sox probably want to kick that figure up to around 170 innings next year, and 200 innings for 2016. The trick is to save some bullets next year for the post season (assuming the Sox are playing in October!). I think that the White Sox don't want to screw up Rodon's season next year by shutting him down in September (see Nationals, Washington and Strasburg, Stephen to see how that worked out). I like the idea of restricting Rodon's innings in April, May, and June this upcoming season.

 

[Marky Mark]

Rodon's ceiling for 2015 is more along the lines of 160 innings of being on the level of a typical #2-3 starter.

 

 

That's a pretty lofty hope. If he can give us anything helpful at the MLB level in '15, great. But I'm not crossing my fingers. The guy has a really high ceiling and high floor, but putting out #2-3 MLB starter production in his first full professional year isn't super likely.

[flavum]

I'm all for optimism when it comes to prospects, but can we cool it a little?

 

Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Danks, and Noesi....that's a rotation good enough to win 90 games if they make their starts and the rest of the team is healthy.

 

Rodon is 22 and could use a couple months in the minors. At the very least, play the first 54 games without him and then evaluate.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm all for optimism when it comes to prospects, but can we cool it a little?

 

Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Danks, and Noesi....that's a rotation good enough to win 90 games if they make their starts and the rest of the team is healthy.

 

Rodon is 22 and could use a couple months in the minors. At the very least, play the first 54 games without him and then evaluate.

While I love all the improvements the Sox have made this offseason, we're still on the outside looking in as far as contenders go. Part of that is the back-end of our rotation. Even as a rookie, Rodon could be a big upgrade over Danks and/or Noesi. Given our expected margin for error, I really don't think we can afford to wait two months or more if an upgrade is presently available.

 

Also, what does 54 games get us? No super 2 status? I'm all for the extra year of team control, but avoiding super 2 status isn't worth the cost if you feel that Rodon is better than Danks or Noesi.

[Balta1701]

While I love all the improvements the Sox have made this offseason, we're still on the outside looking in as far as contenders go. Part of that is the back-end of our rotation. Even as a rookie, Rodon could be a big upgrade over Danks and/or Noesi. Given our expected margin for error, I really don't think we can afford to wait two months or more if an upgrade is presently available.

 

Also, what does 54 games get us? No super 2 status? I'm all for the extra year of team control, but avoiding super 2 status isn't worth the cost if you feel that Rodon is better than Danks or Noesi.

I would be genuinely surprised if you could take Rodon with 20 innings above college level ball and stick him in as a starter on this team as of April & have him be a major upgrade over the guys we have when you fit everything together. Maybe it'll happen, but I'm still extremely skeptical about this claim. Very few guys can pull that off.

 

If he's that much clearly better in spring training maybe you'll get me changing my tune, but even if he goes out and takes control of a rotation spot in the spring we're going to need someone to start 8-10 games or so for him just to keep his innings down. He'll be exhausted by the time he gets to ~150 innings.

 

Skipping a start would seem like an option, but we also want to keep everyone else in the rotation, particularly Chris Sale, healthy and rested for the playoffs also, so hanging 15-20 extra innings on their arms still seems like the kind of move that will cost us by the time the playoffs hit.

[bmags]

I'm all for cautious optimism for prospects, but when it comes to expectations for the top college pitcher's impact...yes I am expecting a lot right away.