2015 Sox Potential

[LDF]

In an ideal situation, you wouldn't have to count on Rodon for anything, but the Sox were a 89 loss team with a mediocre at best farm system. There aren't enough resources to pay/trade for enough talent to make this a contending team in 2015 without a significant contribution from Rodon. Given the relative ages/experience of Sale-Quintana-Rodon, 2016-2017 is really the most likely time frame for contending.

 

this is a perfect example and post. i agree with you 100%.

 

i was making my statement for those who still think that Rodon can come

in and take over a slot and do great.

 

the importance this yr is to have a well verse of hitters and pitchers who

can lead this team to the playoff and more.

 

thank you. great post.

[Balta1701]

In an ideal situation, you wouldn't have to count on Rodon for anything, but the Sox were a 89 loss team with a mediocre at best farm system. There aren't enough resources to pay/trade for enough talent to make this a contending team in 2015 without a significant contribution from Rodon. Given the relative ages/experience of Sale-Quintana-Rodon, 2016-2017 is really the most likely time frame for contending.

If we are relying on a rookie who has pitched 20 innings above college ball to make this be a contending team next year we will not be a contending team.

[LDF]

If we are relying on a rookie who has pitched 20 innings above college ball to make this be a contending team next year we will not be a contending team.

 

i can of see the excitement of signing him and seeing him play, the biggest problem is

an unrealistic expectation of what he can do right off the start.

[LDF]

 

even Jose A is getting into the idea of the sox in the playoff next yr.

prob built in hype, but i like it.

 

 

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/exc...rth-336743.html

[LDF]

 

i am rehashing this post as a catch all post, for now.

 

after the major success of the soxfest and all the feel good, kool-aid sox drinking, i really to hope and pray the sox FO comes out with a major kick arse advertising slogan. something that is catchy like in the old days, "good guys wear black"

 

too bad adding a little of the blawkhawks commercial of "you may not know them, but" with them showing hockey scenes. this team as it is, can help the sox to really turn this around, build up the momentum for going into the dog days of summer. when the sox will be in the thick of it, playoff run.

 

sox in 15

[LDF]

i am rehashing this post as a catch all post, for now.

 

sox in 15

 

nice rating article.

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/106...handed-pitchers

 

[caulfield12]

If we are relying on a rookie who has pitched 20 innings above college ball to make this be a contending team next year we will not be a contending team.

 

 

They've also referenced Montas and Beck as options who will be looked at early...along with Erik Johnson if he shows signs of rebounding.

 

 

As for the potential of the Sox, Fangraphs' 77 win prediction (and 84 for the Cubs) better be reversed in reality or we're all going to end up disappointed in the end.

 

Nevertheless, another 7 game improvement would be a big improvement. It's just that the bar has been set a lot higher to "playoff expectations," which is undoubtedly a good thing for the fans.

[BlackSox13]

They've also referenced Montas and Beck as options who will be looked at early...along with Erik Johnson if he shows signs of rebounding.

 

 

As for the potential of the Sox, Fangraphs' 77 win prediction (and 84 for the Cubs) better be reversed in reality or we're all going to end up disappointed in the end.

 

Nevertheless, another 7 game improvement would be a big improvement. It's just that the bar has been set a lot higher to "playoff expectations," which is undoubtedly a good thing for the fans.

The fangaphs prediction of 77 wins sounds like it came straight from the north side,lol. Come on now. The four biggest acquisitions of Robertson, Melky, LaRoche and Samardzija only account for a 4 win improvement over 014? That's pretty harsh IMHO.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

If this team can get to 85 wins I'll be happy. I want to go to the playoffs obviously but we got to let it play out. If we miss the playoffs it'll be disappointing but not the end of the world.

[LDF]

If this team can get to 85 wins I'll be happy. I want to go to the playoffs obviously but we got to let it play out. If we miss the playoffs it'll be disappointing but not the end of the world.

 

if we miss the playoff and it isn't b/c of injury..... the blame lies solely on the shoulders of the FO for not finishing the offseason as they should have. worrying about fans paying first for the team to improve.

[SCCWS]

if we miss the playoff and it isn't b/c of injury..... the blame lies solely on the shoulders of the FO for not finishing the offseason as they should have. worrying about fans paying first for the team to improve.

 

WRONG. Suppose we miss the playoffs because there are 3 other teams better than us. Suppose we miss the playoffs because a few key players have down seasons. If Abreu, Sale or Q are healthy but have a bad season, we could miss the playoffs. What happens if the 4th and 5th starters stink and Rodon isn't ready???

 

My point is that the team could have an overall mediocre year and we can miss the playoffs. I think we are right there and could challenge for a WC spot. But if one of the big 3 has an off season, then we could be outside looking in.

 

[LDF]

WRONG. Suppose we miss the playoffs because there are 3 other teams better than us. Suppose we miss the playoffs because a few key players have down seasons. If Abreu, Sale or Q are healthy but have a bad season, we could miss the playoffs. What happens if the 4th and 5th starters stink and Rodon isn't ready???

 

My point is that the team could have an overall mediocre year and we can miss the playoffs. I think we are right there and could challenge for a WC spot. But if one of the big 3 has an off season, then we could be outside looking in.

 

let me see if i can really simplify my comment.

 

if we miss the playoff and it isn't b/c of injury..... the blame lies solely on the shoulders of the FO for not finishing the offseason as they should have. worrying about fans paying first for the team to improve.

 

 

ok, you mention of having a few key players going down ..... didn't i mention something like that in the first few words ????

 

finishing the offseason rebuild, depending on and solely on Rodn, #4-5 and prosoects in the minors. those minors may not be ready but who is to know esp if there is no pitchers to backup. so in essence not finishing up what they started.

 

let take car this a little further, one of the top 3's does not produce as expected, and there is really no - one of that skills and experience, the sox do not have that backup, again, the FO not finishing what they started.

 

so pls explain how i didn't fully explain this.

 

~~~ edit, pls also let me further point out, do you really think anyone on this site, will allow me to get away with what i posted... these guys are smart.

Edited January 26, 2015 by LDF

[caulfield12]

Very simple.

 

The payroll is pretty highly leveraged, as it is.

 

You can make the argument for pretty much any team other than the Nationals or Dodgers that they're a couple players away. There are so few teams without at least 1-2 weaknesses, there's a TON of parity right now in the AL.

 

The White Sox can't afford to put themselves in a position where they have to SUBTRACT payroll going into 2016.

 

Samardzija gave them a much higher probability of competing THIS year, but the thinking is, like most seasons, that the adjustments (if necessary) will be made in June/July based on the standings and attendance/revenues.

 

More than anything they can't afford to blow up that 2016 and 2017 optimal window by doing something that doesn't fit with the long-term plan.

 

Right now, you're essentially looking at a 25% chance this year, 50% in 2016-17 and then back down to 25% in 2018 unless you hit gold with Rodon, Anderson, Montas, Hawkins, Danish, Micah Johnson, etc. and another high first-rounder this June.

 

As long as John Danks is on the roster, they're hamstrung financially after all these additions to the point where they have to wait for the first 2-3 months to play out.

Edited January 26, 2015 by caulfield12

[ChiSox59]

Very simple.

 

The payroll is pretty highly leveraged, as it is.

 

You can make the argument for pretty much any team other than the Nationals or Dodgers that they're a couple players away. There are so few teams without at least 1-2 weaknesses, there's a TON of parity right now in the AL.

 

The White Sox can't afford to put themselves in a position where they have to SUBTRACT payroll going into 2016.

 

Samardzija gave them a much higher probability of competing THIS year, but the thinking is, like most seasons, that the adjustments (if necessary) will be made in June/July based on the standings and attendance/revenues.

 

More than anything they can't afford to blow up that 2016 and 2017 optimal window by doing something that doesn't fit with the long-term plan.

 

Right now, you're essentially looking at a 25% chance this year, 50% in 2016-17 and then back down to 25% in 2018 unless you hit gold with Rodon, Anderson, Montas, Hawkins, Danish, Micah Johnson, etc. and another high first-rounder this June.

 

As long as John Danks is on the roster, they're hamstrung financially after all these additions to the point where they have to wait for the first 2-3 months to play out.

 

I agree with everything you said, for the most part, until the end. Sure, John Danks circa 2014 was overpaid. But, $14M is what average ML pitchers get paid in today's game. Danks isn't THAT far away from being average. 180 IP w/ a 4.20 ERA and 1.3 WHIP in 2015 and the dude is worth every cent he is getting paid. It wouldn't be that crazy for Danks to do that another year removed from surgery.

 

Sure, with the current make up of the SOX, that $14M would be nice to give to a mid rotation RHP instead of Danks, but it isn't the end of the world.

 

[Kyyle23]

I'm gonna play extreme optimist and predict 90 wins.

[ILMOU]

The fangaphs prediction of 77 wins sounds like it came straight from the north side,lol. Come on now. The four biggest acquisitions of Robertson, Melky, LaRoche and Samardzija only account for a 4 win improvement over 014? That's pretty harsh IMHO.

Plus Duke, healthy Avi, etc. Absurd is more like it.

 

I'm gonna play extreme optimist and predict 90 wins.

 

I don't think that's extreme in any way. Just a lot of pessimism here.

Edited January 26, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[southsider2k5]

I like 86/87 wins right now. If things go right, 92 feels like a top to me. With problems, just under .500.

[Harry Chappas]

77 everything goes wrong

 

84 seems good to me

 

90 about as high as they can get and things go right

[flavum]

97 wins.

 

Sox will dominate the Royals and Twins. 28-10

Edited January 26, 2015 by flavum

[BlackSox13]

Plus Duke, healthy Avi, etc. Absurd is more like it.

 

 

 

I don't think that's extreme in any way. Just a lot of pessimism here.

Agreed with both statements.

 

I really believe the Sox can win 85/86 games as is but if Noesi continues to improve and Danks can get closer to his old self, I think 88-90 wins is very obtainable barring major injuries.

[LDF]

Very simple.

 

The payroll is pretty highly leveraged, as it is.

 

no it is not, you are making a comparison to what, to what sox FO is claiming?? they can still make 1 more investment esp iif it is thru a trade. the money will be coming off the books next offseason.

 

so you are saying 115 mil to what is considered high. the sox normal MO is to do this, to make the least amount of investment and bring in the fans and hope, this was done thru all the 90's and the same thing. the sox is depending on what they hope on plans and expectation to pan out.

 

You can make the argument for pretty much any team other than the Nationals or Dodgers that they're a couple players away. There are so few teams without at least 1-2 weaknesses, there's a TON of parity right now in the AL.

these are the teams that the sox will meet in the playoff esp if they get out of the AL.

 

The White Sox can't afford to put themselves in a position where they have to SUBTRACT payroll going into 2016.

not if it is short term improvements. attrition....

 

 

Samardzija gave them a much higher probability of competing THIS year, but the thinking is, like most seasons, that the adjustments (if necessary) will be made in June/July based on the standings and attendance/revenues.

so making adjustment in mid season and making it now..... it is the same thing, conceptually speaking. do it now, when the cost would be more during the season, esp in the pitching dept.

 

 

More than anything they can't afford to blow up that 2016 and 2017 optimal window by doing something that doesn't fit with the long-term plan.

 

so who cares what happens in 2017... the window of opportunity is now, Jose A 1 yr remove, Jeff S, sale and Q, let alone the players in the fa rt that the sox signed. deal with the future when it gets here

 

Right now, you're essentially looking at a 25% chance this year, 50% in 2016-17 and then back down to 25% in 2018 unless you hit gold with Rodon, Anderson, Montas, Hawkins, Danish, Micah Johnson, etc. and another high first-rounder this June.

 

As long as John Danks is on the roster, they're hamstrung financially after all these additions to the point where they have to wait for the first 2-3 months to play out.

the sox are hamstrung by not finishing off what started as a great offseason rebuild, b/c the owners do not want to spend anything more. to hope in all hope on prospects that hasn't produce for a full season in the majors let alone come playoff time.

 

the money is there, the money earned from the licquer sales, the refreshments, the vendors rents, the parking lot money, the advertising promo nights, commercal advertising ets.... which the sox do not show on any books, but it is all done thru subsidiaries of different companies.

 

btw pls do not take the bold as me screaming or anything. i wanted to let you see my responses easier.

[LDF]

Agreed with both statements.

 

I really believe the Sox can win 85/86 games as is but if Noesi continues to improve and Danks can get closer to his old self, I think 88-90 wins is very obtainable barring major injuries.

 

i really your yous guys enthusiasm in predicting the season. it really warms my heart in seeing this, i am totally afraid to fall flat on my face and jinks the team

 

sox in 15.

[southsider2k5]

no it is not, you are making a comparison to what, to what sox FO is claiming?? they can still make 1 more investment esp iif it is thru a trade. the money will be coming off the books next offseason.

 

so you are saying 115 mil to what is considered high. the sox normal MO is to do this, to make the least amount of investment and bring in the fans and hope, this was done thru all the 90's and the same thing. the sox is depending on what they hope on plans and expectation to pan out.

 

 

these are the teams that the sox will meet in the playoff esp if they get out of the AL.

 

 

not if it is short term improvements. attrition....

 

 

 

so making adjustment in mid season and making it now..... it is the same thing, conceptually speaking. do it now, when the cost would be more during the season, esp in the pitching dept.

 

 

 

 

so who cares what happens in 2017... the window of opportunity is now, Jose A 1 yr remove, Jeff S, sale and Q, let alone the players in the fa rt that the sox signed. deal with the future when it gets here

 

Right now, you're essentially looking at a 25% chance this year, 50% in 2016-17 and then back down to 25% in 2018 unless you hit gold with Rodon, Anderson, Montas, Hawkins, Danish, Micah Johnson, etc. and another high first-rounder this June.

 

 

the sox are hamstrung by not finishing off what started as a great offseason rebuild, b/c the owners do not want to spend anything more. to hope in all hope on prospects that hasn't produce for a full season in the majors let alone come playoff time.

 

the money is there, the money earned from the licquer sales, the refreshments, the vendors rents, the parking lot money, the advertising promo nights, commercal advertising ets.... which the sox do not show on any books, but it is all done thru subsidiaries of different companies.

 

btw pls do not take the bold as me screaming or anything. i wanted to let you see my responses easier.

 

I agree with the assessment of the Sox being on the highest end of possible payroll, based on what I have read about their numbers through Forbes.

 

[BlackSox13]

i really your yous guys enthusiasm in predicting the season. it really warms my heart in seeing this, i am totally afraid to fall flat on my face and jinks the team

 

sox in 15.

IMHO, there's no reason not to be enthusiastic. The Sox recognized the many holes on the team and addressed a majority of them. They still have some question marks but overall I think Hahn nailed it so far this winter and gave fans lots of hope and even more to talk about. Plus, they should have some wiggle room in the payroll if they need to make a trade or two at the deadline.

 

CaliSoxFan and I were discussing earlier in the off season about how this was the year to get free agents since they had plenty of money to spend, the Sox 1st pick is protected and there were free agents available (Melky, Robertson, LaRoche, Duke) that could fill holes and that's exactly what the Sox did. Everything was in alignment for a big winter and I could not be happier with what Hahn and co have accomplished so far. Man, I cannot wait til ST! Go Sox!

[LDF]

IMHO, there's no reason not to be enthusiastic. The Sox recognized the many holes on the team and addressed a majority of them. They still have some question marks but overall I think Hahn nailed it so far this winter and gave fans lots of hope and even more to talk about. Plus, they should have some wiggle room in the payroll if they need to make a trade or two at the deadline.

 

CaliSoxFan and I were discussing earlier in the off season about how this was the year to get free agents since they had plenty of money to spend, the Sox 1st pick is protected and there were free agents available (Melky, Robertson, LaRoche, Duke) that could fill holes and that's exactly what the Sox did. Everything was in alignment for a big winter and I could not be happier with what Hahn and co have accomplished so far. Man, I cannot wait til ST! Go Sox!

 

don't get me wrong, i am ecstatic with what they have done.