2015 Sox Potential

[LDF]

While I love all the improvements the Sox have made this offseason, we're still on the outside looking in as far as contenders go. Part of that is the back-end of our rotation. Even as a rookie, Rodon could be a big upgrade over Danks and/or Noesi. Given our expected margin for error, I really don't think we can afford to wait two months or more if an upgrade is presently available.

 

Also, what does 54 games get us? No super 2 status? I'm all for the extra year of team control, but avoiding super 2 status isn't worth the cost if you feel that Rodon is better than Danks or Noesi.

 

therein lies the problem. the sox do not have time to wait. not with the main

players on this team entering their prime. the sox may get into the playoff and

depending on how Bos and Det continue to address their list of improvement

needed.

 

so the sox need to add 1 more pitcher. if the sox do not want to trade for one

then Max Scherzer should be sign. this is an insurance for JS, if he does not

want to sign, or ask for a lot of in salary. the sox will go with a solid of 4 sp

with 2 more in reserve, 1 will be a #5 and the other will be as insurance if

there is an injury.

 

i am looking at the NL team as SFO and their starting Pitcers.

#1. M. Bumgarner

#2. T. Hudson

#3. M. Cain

#4. T. Lincecum

#5. ???

 

i know i am jumping to the final game but the sox need to address those

weakness now.

 

[Balta1701]

therein lies the problem. the sox do not have time to wait. not with the main

players on this team entering their prime. the sox may get into the playoff and

depending on how Bos and Det continue to address their list of improvement

needed.

 

so the sox need to add 1 more pitcher. if the sox do not want to trade for one

then Max Scherzer should be sign. this is an insurance for JS, if he does not

want to sign, or ask for a lot of in salary. the sox will go with a solid of 4 sp

with 2 more in reserve, 1 will be a #5 and the other will be as insurance if

there is an injury.

 

i am looking at the NL team as SFO and their starting Pitcers.

#1. M. Bumgarner

#2. T. Hudson

#3. M. Cain

#4. T. Lincecum

#5. ???

 

i know i am jumping to the final game but the sox need to address those

weakness now.

The Giants #4 starter right now is Peavy, and as you show it, we are ~tied at #1 if Chris is healthy, better at #2 and #3, Lincecum was worse than either Danks or Noesi last year and the couple years before it. I would take our rotation over that rotation if Chris stays healthy. Hands down no contest.

 

That should tell you something about winning the world series. That Giants rotation is very weak outside their #1, their worst starter is actually a lot worse than Danks or Noesi.

[LDF]

The Giants #4 starter right now is Peavy, and as you show it, we are ~tied at #1 if Chris is healthy, better at #2 and #3, Lincecum was worse than either Danks or Noesi last year and the couple years before it. I would take our rotation over that rotation if Chris stays healthy. Hands down no contest.

 

That should tell you something about winning the world series. That Giants rotation is very weak outside their #1, their worst starter is actually a lot worse than Danks or Noesi.

 

thanks for the update on #4 pitcher. when you are saying that the sox are better, are you

using the Advance Stats??

 

here is the main point of my assessment. outside sfo #1 Chris needs to be completely

healthy for the whole season based on this club as it is now. but in general the sfo pitchers

has pitched 180 innings.

 

there is some questions about the sox #4 and #5 pitchers. i am comfortable with Danks but

i do not have that all sooo nice feelings on Noesi reproducing his success.

 

this is where i started this post, do the sox rush Rodon up? can he put up the numbers that is

needed for the team absorb his numbers and do the same in the playoff and further?

[Rowand44]

The Giants #4 starter right now is Peavy, and as you show it, we are ~tied at #1 if Chris is healthy, better at #2 and #3, Lincecum was worse than either Danks or Noesi last year and the couple years before it. I would take our rotation over that rotation if Chris stays healthy. Hands down no contest.

 

That should tell you something about winning the world series. That Giants rotation is very weak outside their #1, their worst starter is actually a lot worse than Danks or Noesi.

Chris is a lot better than Madison assuming he's healthy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Brad Penny most likely will not be the last reclamation project we sign. We have no depth in the starting rotation. I do not expect Rodon to pitch for the Sox until that time is past where they get the extra year. Maybe Carroll is resigned or Gavin Floyd but it will be someone and maybe another. Rodon will need to show the Sox that his command is there and would have to be making a mockery of AAA to get a chance to replace anyone in the rotation .

 

It's all fun to discuss but as we say at work " don't worry about it " ! It'll unfold the way it unfolds, hopefully with as little problems as possible.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Brad Penny most likely will not be the last reclamation project we sign. We have no depth in the starting rotation. I do not expect Rodon to pitch for the Sox until that time is past where they get the extra year. Maybe Carroll is resigned or Gavin Floyd but it will be someone and maybe another. Rodon will need to show the Sox that his command is there and would have to be making a mockery of AAA to get a chance to replace anyone in the rotation .

 

It's all fun to discuss but as we say at work " don't worry about it " ! It'll unfold the way it unfolds, hopefully with as little problems as possible.

 

Gavin is on the Indians

[Balta1701]

thanks for the update on #4 pitcher. when you are saying that the sox are better, are you

using the Advance Stats??

 

here is the main point of my assessment. outside sfo #1 Chris needs to be completely

healthy for the whole season based on this club as it is now. but in general the sfo pitchers

has pitched 180 innings.

 

there is some questions about the sox #4 and #5 pitchers. i am comfortable with Danks but

i do not have that all sooo nice feelings on Noesi reproducing his success.

 

this is where i started this post, do the sox rush Rodon up? can he put up the numbers that is

needed for the team absorb his numbers and do the same in the playoff and further?

I don't even need to use advanced stats to say this one. Tim Hudson vs. Jose Quintana...Quintana has had a better ERA each of the last 2 years while pitching more innings, and just going off ERA is giving a huge hand to Hudson since last year he pitched in San Francisco, one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.

 

Matt Cain, worse ERA than Samardzija each of the last 2 years, ERA over 4, again while pitching in that pitchers park in San Francisco, and only pitched 90 innings last year.

 

Jake Peavy...hell they let him go what, 1 inning in the world series because they were so confident in him? He's better than Danks/Noesi right now, but not by much.

 

Lincecum put up a 4.74 ERA in San Francisco last year. John Danks put up a 4.74 ERA in Chicago last year. Tim Lincecum put up a similar ERA to John Danks, pitching fewer innings, in a much larger ballpark.

[LDF]

I don't even need to use advanced stats to say this one. Tim Hudson vs. Jose Quintana...Quintana has had a better ERA each of the last 2 years while pitching more innings, and just going off ERA is giving a huge hand to Hudson since last year he pitched in San Francisco, one of the best pitcher's parks in the league.

 

Matt Cain, worse ERA than Samardzija each of the last 2 years, ERA over 4, again while pitching in that pitchers park in San Francisco, and only pitched 90 innings last year.

 

Jake Peavy...hell they let him go what, 1 inning in the world series because they were so confident in him? He's better than Danks/Noesi right now, but not by much.

 

Lincecum put up a 4.74 ERA in San Francisco last year. John Danks put up a 4.74 ERA in Chicago last year. Tim Lincecum put up a similar ERA to John Danks, pitching fewer innings, in a much larger ballpark.

 

lol ..... great counter. i can't think of a counter statement, except, they

are the world series chanpions. the sox need to add a final piece or 2

and 1 of them is in the pen. too many uncertainties there, at least for

me.

[Balta1701]

lol ..... great counter. i can't think of a counter statement, except, they

are the world series chanpions. the sox need to add a final piece or 2

and 1 of them is in the pen. too many uncertainties there, at least for

me.

IMO, the biggest uncertainty/issue for me is that I still don't see a righty who can take at-bats away from LaRoche, and he's terrible against lefties. I'm game with this rotation, I know who my top 6 are and there's even a potential backup or two after that, and I'm ok with the bullpen - the major roles are filled and bullpen pitchers are up and down enough that there's bound to be someone from that group who has an up season.

[LDF]

IMO, the biggest uncertainty/issue for me is that I still don't see a righty who can take at-bats away from LaRoche, and he's terrible against lefties. I'm game with this rotation, I know who my top 6 are and there's even a potential backup or two after that, and I'm ok with the bullpen - the major roles are filled and bullpen pitchers are up and down enough that there's bound to be someone from that group who has an up season.

 

you have some great point in this post which i agree with. which is

leading to another part of what i want to bring up.

 

however i want to stress on the bolded. i hate to rely on luck. too

many questions that for me, need an answer. this is the beginning

of a great team that the sox assembled.

 

now i of the other options i want to address is a great RH hitter. there

is one that tickle my interest, but i have been thinking in the last 2 weeks

of an idea. it was confirmed yesterday with MLB rumors page.

 

Wash Nat'l. they have 4 players that they would like to move, 1 of those

players is Ian Desmond. my only concern is what will the cost be in prospects.

 

 

 

[Boopa1219]

i always have a horrible time trying to think of titles, so i am going

here, with this one.

 

i have a series of questions that i find confusing in this past week after

the signing of Melky. Granted that Sox need to acquire bench players

but i am not counting on that position now.

 

First question, what is the profile of C. Rodon as a pitcher, is he a #1

type front end pitcher, a #3 kind of pitcher has streaks of a #1 but at

times pitches like a #4. Or is he the backend of the rotation.

 

now i am not going to compare it to the sox rotation but to the avg

team rotation.

 

this will lead me to more of the other series of questions i have.

 

pls put up with this.

 

Rodon in my opinion profiles more as a very solid number 2 starter, if he's a number one on your staff its not the worst thing to hapoen to you.

[ptatc]

1. Get him to 150 innings when his peak previous innings total is about 130.

2. Get him those innings against lesser competition so that he's building up his arm and working on his offspeed stuff but doing so without having to face top level MLB competition/extremely high stress levels.

3. Get him exposed to big league hitters in a controlled way, where he's only seeing how they handle his fastball and maybe one offspeed pitch, so that he has a bit of experience against big leaguers to fall back on this offseason.

4. Add in a few extra innings in a controlled way at the end of the year to keep building up his arm but without pushing him so far.

5. Maybe win a few extra games in September by bringing up a lefty who can throw in the low/mid 90s with really good stuff to the pen.

6. Maybe get him experience in a playoff hunt if things don't fall apart beforehand.

Add in building his confidence at the MLB level as well.

[ptatc]

I may be in the minority here, but I want him with the big league club ASAP while getting that extra year of team control. Not sure if that's mid April or early May, but I truly believe he's a better starting option than both Danks & Noesei and I don't think we can afford to wait 3+ months for him to replace one of those guys in the rotation if we're serious about competing. Also, I don't think spending a full season with Cooper as a starter in the majors is going to be any worse for his development than dominating minor league hitters for most of the year. Rodon is a special talent and IMO he should be pushed along more aggressively.

The issue is physical. He cannot pitch an entire MLB season as a starter. It will not be good for him physically. He should only go 160-170 innings. If the Sox begin the season with him as a starter, they will need to do as the Nationals did with Strasburg and shut him down in August. If the Sox are ina playoff race the fans will go nuts about this, even though it is the correct move.

[ILMOU]

IMO, the biggest uncertainty/issue for me is that I still don't see a righty who can take at-bats away from LaRoche, and he's terrible against lefties. I'm game with this rotation, I know who my top 6 are and there's even a potential backup or two after that, and I'm ok with the bullpen - the major roles are filled and bullpen pitchers are up and down enough that there's bound to be someone from that group who has an up season.

 

Agreed, B. This is the biggest weakness in the 25 man imo. Without a platoon partner, the opposition will work their way toward a key LaRoche AB vs. a lefty pitcher, as we've seen so many times with Dunn in recent years. We lost many games over the past few years because Robin couldn't/wouldn't pinch hit for Dunn in such situations.

 

LaRoche's track record at 35 y.o. tells us he just isn't very good vs. LHP. It's simple logic that this should be avoided whenever possible. Unfortunately, I fear that the org is somewhat afflicted by "old school BS" that says a platoon guy needs ABs against both sides so he won't be lost when that's imperative and/or it's an "insult" to a long-term starter to ask him to accept a platoon role. Whereas a mgr. like Maddon will just say to himself "LaRoche is bad vs. lefties, we'll avoid it whenever possible", the Sox' machinations in this regard will likely be needlessly complicated...Or so I fear.

 

Really hoping that a platoon is part of the plan.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[Buehrlesque]

IMO, the biggest uncertainty/issue for me is that I still don't see a righty who can take at-bats away from LaRoche, and he's terrible against lefties.

Dayan Viciedo

 

[Balta1701]

Dayan Viciedo

It'd be convenient, but the small problem of him being previously unable to hit lefties or righties makes him a less than ideal candidate.

[Buehrlesque]

It'd be convenient, but the small problem of him being previously unable to hit lefties or righties makes him a less than ideal candidate.

Pfff, details...

[LDF]

The issue is physical. He cannot pitch an entire MLB season as a starter. It will not be good for him physically. He should only go 160-170 innings. If the Sox begin the season with him as a starter, they will need to do as the Nationals did with Strasburg and shut him down in August. If the Sox are ina playoff race the fans will go nuts about this, even though it is the correct move.

 

that is a major problem in dealing with a rookie, let alone a promising rookie in Rodon.

if the sox expect to depend on Rodon, the team is in trouble, esp if the sox makes

the playoff and the run for the world series.

 

the sox do not have enuf quality pitchers, esp if there is an injury. that is if the sox

have some hope for Erik Johnson, Chris Beck coming in.

[LDF]

Dayan Viciedo

 

if that is truly the answer, the sox are in real trouble.

[witesoxfan]

if that is truly the answer, the sox are in real trouble.

 

No they wouldn't be. LaRoche's right handed platoon mate is probably going to get something like 100-150 plate appearances. What would be of bigger concern is wasting $4 million on a guy getting those limited plate appearances when they could possibly bring in a AAAA type player to get those appearances and perhaps be someone competent. Frankly though, I don't think LaRoche is going to be sitting much.

 

There are enough bats out there that they'll be able to find something for a guy who's ultimately going to get 100-150 plate appearances (in an ideal world).

[cabiness42]

LaRoche is not going to have a platoon partner. You don't pay a guy $25M to be a platoon player. Yes, I know he's awful vs LHP but you just deal with that because of the tradeoff of how good he is vs RHP. Now, if you're smart, you have him batting farther down in the order vs LHP, but if anybody on the roster is a target for a platoon situation it's Gillaspie, not LaRoche.

 

 

[ottawa_sox]

The issue is physical. He cannot pitch an entire MLB season as a starter. It will not be good for him physically. He should only go 160-170 innings. If the Sox begin the season with him as a starter, they will need to do as the Nationals did with Strasburg and shut him down in August. If the Sox are ina playoff race the fans will go nuts about this, even though it is the correct move.

 

I hope they structure his conditioning such that he will be available for 'heavier lifting' at the end of the year.

 

 

 

[LDF]

No they wouldn't be. LaRoche's right handed platoon mate is probably going to get something like 100-150 plate appearances. What would be of bigger concern is wasting $4 million on a guy getting those limited plate appearances when they could possibly bring in a AAAA type player to get those appearances and perhaps be someone competent. Frankly though, I don't think LaRoche is going to be sitting much.

 

There are enough bats out there that they'll be able to find something for a guy who's ultimately going to get 100-150 plate appearances (in an ideal world).

 

i am in agreement here, DV value and it is not that much compared to what the sox

have assemble, is for hitting the ball hard, but that is it. his defense in a black hole, his

avg again is a black hole, let alone his other hitting stats. the sox will consider themselves

extremely lucky if they can trade him.

 

i don't see any hitters that is left that are enticing me on the FA. they, the sox will need

to go the trade rt.

 

i too don't think AL will sit much, but ever once in a while getting a player to relieve him and

who can hit.

 

~~~ edit- i forgot that Bonifacio may still be available. he might be a very interesting player

and i could see him spelling AL, giving him a rest.

Edited December 24, 2014 by LDF

[LDF]

I hope they structure his conditioning such that he will be available for 'heavier lifting' at the end of the year.

 

again, i hope Rodon will prove me wrong, i do not want to go into the season

hoping, to catch lightning in a bottle. hoping that Rodon can come out pitching

to a 10-0 record, i am using this as an example. he could come

out and easily pitch a 0'fer.

 

didn't anyone learned from last yr, hoping for the best and not being prepare

for the worst. granted last yr was the ultimum worst kind of luck. but Hahn

did not have players to step in, he had reclamation's projects and prospects

who he and org hoped will will do well. the org had put too much hope in

unproven prospects.

 

the sox have done a great job so far, just get a couple more, i still see several

holes or question marks that need to be address.

[cabiness42]

again, i hope Rodon will prove me wrong, i do not want to go into the season

hoping, to catch lightning in a bottle. hoping that Rodon can come out pitching

to a 10-0 record, i am using this as an example. he could come

out and easily pitch a 0'fer.

 

didn't anyone learned from last yr, hoping for the best and not being prepare

for the worst. granted last yr was the ultimum worst kind of luck. but Hahn

did not have players to step in, he had reclamation's projects and prospects

who he and org hoped will will do well. the org had put too much hope in

unproven prospects.

 

the sox have done a great job so far, just get a couple more, i still see several

holes or question marks that need to be address.

 

In an ideal situation, you wouldn't have to count on Rodon for anything, but the Sox were a 89 loss team with a mediocre at best farm system. There aren't enough resources to pay/trade for enough talent to make this a contending team in 2015 without a significant contribution from Rodon. Given the relative ages/experience of Sale-Quintana-Rodon, 2016-2017 is really the most likely time frame for contending.