Ben Zobrist

[thxfrthmmrs]

The bat hasn't really slowed down, but his power has diminished. He's still hitting about .270 and walking 10-11% of the time. And, while you're right that the defense will slow down, I don't know that it will get to the point where he's a liability in the field.

 

I don't see any reason why he couldn't be a 2-3 WAR player at age 38 considering he's been a 5-6 WAR player for pretty much the entirety of his career.

 

Again, not saying I want him, but he's not going to be cheap to acquire.

 

That was precisely what I was hinting at. I agree that he wouldn't fall off the face of the earth by age 37-38.

 

I actually DON'T want to go after him for another reason. It could play out in two scenarios for us. We acquire him and lose him in free agency or we lock him up for a huge deal. I wouldn't want to trade the farm for him for just 1 year, because for what? If we do lock him up, it wouldn't be cheap. With no contracts coming off the book next year, it would also impact our flexibility to resign Shark as well as extending some of the guys like Eaton and Avi, and upgrade in the positions of greater need, 3B and C.

 

We already have 2 prospects who are close to ML ready at 2B. At some point you got to play them. That's why the "trade for Zobrist so prospects could develop" argument doesn't work here. If we are going to trade prospects for a position player, it better be a 3B or C, as we don't have in house replacements, or a 2B with a cost controlled contract.

[Balta1701]

That was precisely what I was hinting at. I agree that he wouldn't fall off the face of the earth by age 37-38.

 

I actually DON'T want to go after him for another reason. It could play out in two scenarios for us. We acquire him and lose him in free agency or we lock him up for a huge deal. I wouldn't want to trade the farm for him for just 1 year, because for what? If we do lock him up, it wouldn't be cheap. With no contracts coming off the book next year, it would also impact our flexibility to resign Shark as well as extending some of the guys like Eaton and Avi, and upgrade in the positions of greater need, 3B and C.

 

We already have 2 prospects who are close to ML ready at 2B. At some point you got to play them. That's why the "trade for Zobrist so prospects could develop" argument doesn't work here. If we are going to trade prospects for a position player, it better be a 3B or C, as we don't have in house replacements, or a 2B with a cost controlled contract.

The question to ask in reply is...would you be willing to miss the playoffs this year if Sanchez and Johnson can't provide decent performance out of 2b?

[thxfrthmmrs]

The question to ask in reply is...would you be willing to miss the playoffs this year if Sanchez and Johnson can't provide decent performance out of 2b?

 

To which I ask, are we so sure right now that 2B is our weakest position and is it our biggest need to upgrade taking account long term potential? It sounds like you're suggesting we are making this decision for this year only, and if that's the case we don't have to have the roster completed by January. I rather wait till July or August to evaluate our need to make a playoff run, and similar talent could be had for a lesser price around that time.

 

On top of that, Sanchez has a track record for hitting in the minors, and if you take into account defense as well, he could be out performing Gillaspie by July.

[LDF]

To which I ask, are we so sure right now that 2B is our weakest position and is it our biggest need to upgrade taking account long term potential? It sounds like you're suggesting we are making this decision for this year only, and if that's the case we don't have to have the roster completed by January. I rather wait till July or August to evaluate our need to make a playoff run, and similar talent could be had for a lesser price around that time.

 

On top of that, Sanchez has a track record for hitting in the minors, and if you take into account defense as well, he could be out performing Gillaspie by July.

 

good question by Balta.

 

here it is, this is the time and depending on the cost of the trade, getting a 2b player

who can hit and has good stats as a hitter in the majors. this yr the sox need to

field a team that will do well. get to the playoff and let see what happens after. with

someone like Ben Zobrist, the sox will be improving while letting the eventual heir at

2b developed some more.

 

making an assumption on Sanchez is 1 thing, the sox only have this time to get a player

like Zob to help.

[thxfrthmmrs]

You keep suggesting getting Zobrist depending on the cost of the trade, but Balta already hinted to you the price tag for Zobrist. We'd have to give up at least either of Danish/Montas, plus a couple of top 10 guys to get him, with the likelihood that he will walk away after this year. If we are going to trade the farm for a guy, we should target guys who will be here for our window of contention, which is the next 3-4 years, not just 2015. Trading for a rental player is a move you make in July, not in January.

 

Lastly, if the Sox are looking to make moves to improve chances of playoffs this year, I think another starting pitcher is a bigger need than 2B. If we have a need a 2B come July or August, one could be had for a lesser price.

[VAfan]

Breaking Ben Zobrist down as a mere super utility player is oversimplifying him beyond recognition. It'd be like saying that Chris Sale has only been a swing guy because he's got about the same amount of relief appearances and starts over the last 5 years. That's absurd, no? The guy has absolutely been one of the most valuable players in the game over the last 5 years, moreso than RA Dickey. Over the last 5 years, he's accumulated 26.9 fWAR, good for 10th in the MLB. The only pitchers rated higher are Kershaw, Verlander, and Felix.

 

WAR is not the end all, be all, but that paints a hell of a picture and if you think that Ben Zobrist is not going to cost a lot to acquire based on the idea that he is a "super utility player," you are going to be sorely mistaken.

 

He absolutely is worth a top return and he will fetch a top return.

 

What I don't understand is why Zobrist scores so high on the offensive WAR number charts with what seems like a not-very-exciting stat line.

 

For example, here's Zobrist's 2014 line.

 

2014 33 TBR AL 146 654 570 83 155 34 3 10 52 10 5 75 84 .272 .354 .395 .749 116 225

 

Here's Melky Cabrera's 2014 line.

 

2014 29 TOR AL 139 621 568 81 171 35 3 16 73 6 2 43 67 .301 .351 .458 .808 126 260

 

Just looking at these two lines, Cabrera is clearly a better hitter. Better average, similar OBP, much better slugging, higher OPS+, more total bases. Zobrist grounded into a 11 fewer DPs (not on chart line), and walked a lot more (but struck out more). But that was it.

 

Yet Zobrist gets a 4.2 oWAR number, while Cabrera gets a 3.6 oWAR number. Is that all because Zobrist can play the infield, and Cabrera can't? We aren't talking about their defense here, only their offense. And if it's all because Zobrist plays 2B (and some SS), then how do they account for the fact he played 54 games in the outfield?

 

Zobrist would clearly be an upgrade for the Sox. He could hit 2nd, slide Cabrera to 3rd, and move everyone else down a notch where they'd be better. Talk about an on-base machine at the top of the lineup -- Eaton .362, Zobrist .354, Cabrera .351, Abreu .383!! LaRoche and Garcia should each drive in 100 with those kinds of opportunities in front of them!!

 

But I'm still confused about why Zobrist is seen as a WAR king when his overall numbers are not that awe-inspiring.

[LDF]

You keep suggesting getting Zobrist depending on the cost of the trade, but Balta already hinted to you the price tag for Zobrist. We'd have to give up at least either of Danish/Montas, plus a couple of top 10 guys to get him, with the likelihood that he will walk away after this year. If we are going to trade the farm for a guy, we should target guys who will be here for our window of contention, which is the next 3-4 years, not just 2015. Trading for a rental player is a move you make in July, not in January.

 

Lastly, if the Sox are looking to make moves to improve chances of playoffs this year, I think another starting pitcher is a bigger need than 2B. If we have a need a 2B come July or August, one could be had for a lesser price.

 

you made a good point, but i will still maintain, that the cost of the trade, is still not known.

only opinions of what the cost will be, which is a valid opinion in itself. i am taking a page from

the KW trade book, over spend to get the player to win now. the main farm system is still and

will still be protected. its like saying the sox traded the farm to get pitcher Jeff S.

 

yes i agree about the pitcher as i have been saying, the sox need another sp, preferably an

A+ type.

[LDF]

What I don't understand is why Zobrist scores so high on the offensive WAR number charts with what seems like a not-very-exciting stat line.

 

For example, here's Zobrist's 2014 line.

 

2014 33 TBR AL 146 654 570 83 155 34 3 10 52 10 5 75 84 .272 .354 .395 .749 116 225

 

Here's Melky Cabrera's 2014 line.

 

2014 29 TOR AL 139 621 568 81 171 35 3 16 73 6 2 43 67 .301 .351 .458 .808 126 260

 

Just looking at these two lines, Cabrera is clearly a better hitter. Better average, similar OBP, much better slugging, higher OPS+, more total bases. Zobrist grounded into a 11 fewer DPs (not on chart line), and walked a lot more (but struck out more). But that was it.

 

Yet Zobrist gets a 4.2 oWAR number, while Cabrera gets a 3.6 oWAR number. Is that all because Zobrist can play the infield, and Cabrera can't? We aren't talking about their defense here, only their offense. And if it's all because Zobrist plays 2B (and some SS), then how do they account for the fact he played 54 games in the outfield?

 

Zobrist would clearly be an upgrade for the Sox. He could hit 2nd, slide Cabrera to 3rd, and move everyone else down a notch where they'd be better. Talk about an on-base machine at the top of the lineup -- Eaton .362, Zobrist .354, Cabrera .351, Abreu .383!! LaRoche and Garcia should each drive in 100 with those kinds of opportunities in front of them!!

 

But I'm still confused about why Zobrist is seen as a WAR king when his overall numbers are not that awe-inspiring.

 

with the stats, i have no answered but i was thinking of the bolded.

 

[VAfan]

As for my take on trading for Ben Zobrist, I'm not going to speculate one way or the other for who would have to be sacrificed in such a deal. We don't really have any idea. Personally, I would trust Rick Hahn and the front office enough at this point if they made such a trade that the value coming back would be more than worth it.

 

As I mentioned above, if Zobrist is acquired, it will certainly make the White Sox offense much better than it is right now, replacing our weakest likely hitter (Sanchez) with a very solid #2 bat. My first concern with Zobrist is whether he has a grass/turf split, or a home/away split given he's been playing on astroturf a lot. It turns out he is about the same on both, but slightly better away.

 

With a better offense, the Sox pitching will look much better than it does now. Quintana's no decisions might finally get turned into wins. Same could be true for Samardzija. And the back end of the rotation should be competitive.

 

So, I'm for the move if the Sox can pull it off for the right price, and I'm willing to trust the front office to make that call.

[LDF]

As for my take on trading for Ben Zobrist, I'm not going to speculate one way or the other for who would have to be sacrificed in such a deal. We don't really have any idea. Personally, I would trust Rick Hahn and the front office enough at this point if they made such a trade that the value coming back would be more than worth it.

 

As I mentioned above, if Zobrist is acquired, it will certainly make the White Sox offense much better than it is right now, replacing our weakest likely hitter (Sanchez) with a very solid #2 bat. My first concern with Zobrist is whether he has a grass/turf split, or a home/away split given he's been playing on astroturf a lot. It turns out he is about the same on both, but slightly better away.

 

With a better offense, the Sox pitching will look much better than it does now. Quintana's no decisions might finally get turned into wins. Same could be true for Samardzija. And the back end of the rotation should be competitive.

 

So, I'm for the move if the Sox can pull it off for the right price, and I'm willing to trust the front office to make that call.

 

a great analysis of the discussion. i can't think of anything. good job/

[VAfan]

you made a good point, but i will still maintain, that the cost of the trade, is still not known.

only opinions of what the cost will be, which is a valid opinion in itself. i am taking a page from

the KW trade book, over spend to get the player to win now. the main farm system is still and

will still be protected. its like saying the sox traded the farm to get pitcher Jeff S.

 

yes i agree about the pitcher as i have been saying, the sox need another sp, preferably an

A+ type.

 

Speaking about a pitcher -- I wonder if no one pays Scherzer what he's asking and he starts looking for a one-year deal -- if the Sox shouldn't be interested. Unlike most teams (other than the Tigers), who'd have to surrender a first round pick (right?), the Sox would only lose a 4th rounder, and would get back a higher pick if (when) Scherzer walks after a year.

 

Then you trade John Danks for salary relief, and you haven't cost yourself that much. But you've definitely moved to the top of the race for the AL Central crown and given yourself a real World Series chance! And all you've lost is some money and a 4th round pick (which you will replace with a higher pick next year).

[LDF]

Speaking about a pitcher -- I wonder if no one pays Scherzer what he's asking and he starts looking for a one-year deal -- if the Sox shouldn't be interested. Unlike most teams (other than the Tigers), who'd have to surrender a first round pick (right?), the Sox would only lose a 4th rounder, and would get back a higher pick if (when) Scherzer walks after a year.

 

Then you trade John Danks for salary relief, and you haven't cost yourself that much. But you've definitely moved to the top of the race for the AL Central crown and given yourself a real World Series chance! And all you've lost is some money and a 4th round pick (which you will replace with a higher pick next year).

 

a great idea, but if that happens, i am more than sure, his agent will insist on a clause

of the team not offering a QD in the 1yr contract.

 

i still like it b/c it still have the team in a stagger, improving the team in the future thru

attrition. no long burdensome contract. if it was me, i would insist on the ability to

add the QD in the contract.

[witesoxfan]

What I don't understand is why Zobrist scores so high on the offensive WAR number charts with what seems like a not-very-exciting stat line.

 

For example, here's Zobrist's 2014 line.

 

2014 33 TBR AL 146 654 570 83 155 34 3 10 52 10 5 75 84 .272 .354 .395 .749 116 225

 

Here's Melky Cabrera's 2014 line.

 

2014 29 TOR AL 139 621 568 81 171 35 3 16 73 6 2 43 67 .301 .351 .458 .808 126 260

 

Just looking at these two lines, Cabrera is clearly a better hitter. Better average, similar OBP, much better slugging, higher OPS+, more total bases. Zobrist grounded into a 11 fewer DPs (not on chart line), and walked a lot more (but struck out more). But that was it.

 

Yet Zobrist gets a 4.2 oWAR number, while Cabrera gets a 3.6 oWAR number. Is that all because Zobrist can play the infield, and Cabrera can't? We aren't talking about their defense here, only their offense. And if it's all because Zobrist plays 2B (and some SS), then how do they account for the fact he played 54 games in the outfield?

 

Zobrist would clearly be an upgrade for the Sox. He could hit 2nd, slide Cabrera to 3rd, and move everyone else down a notch where they'd be better. Talk about an on-base machine at the top of the lineup -- Eaton .362, Zobrist .354, Cabrera .351, Abreu .383!! LaRoche and Garcia should each drive in 100 with those kinds of opportunities in front of them!!

 

But I'm still confused about why Zobrist is seen as a WAR king when his overall numbers are not that awe-inspiring.

 

Defense. Zobrist is highly regarded by advanced defensive metrics virtually across the board at any position he plays, while Melky Cabrera is considered to be a poor defender. Last year, Zobrist was cumulatively a +14.4 defensive player, while Cabrera was at -12.1, a difference of 26.5 runs, which is about 2.5 WAR. Their baserunning was very similar, with Cabrera putting up a -1.3 and Zobrist 2.6, almost totally a 4 run difference. In all, we'll round that to 30 runs, which is 3 wins....

 

Ben Zobrist - 5.7 WAR

Melky Cabrera - 2.6 WAR

 

And no, it's not because Zobrist can play the infield. It's because he can play everywhere well, which I think people are missing to some extent. You could play Jose Abreu everywhere but it's not going to raise his WAR simply because he did so.

 

Regarding their offensive lines, FanGraphs absolutely viewed Melky to be a superior hitter last year, posting a 125 wRC+ while Zobrist was at 119.

[Vance Law]

The question to ask in reply is...would you be willing to miss the playoffs this year if Sanchez and Johnson can't provide decent performance out of 2b?

 

There's also Saladino and if none of them can handle it, there's the trade deadline if the rest of the team is kicking ass. But one of our middle infielders has to be given the 2nd base job.

[LDF]

There's also Saladino and if none of them can handle it, there's the trade deadline if the rest of the team is kicking ass. But one of our middle infielders has to be given the 2nd base job.

 

i am thinking that the consensus from the sox front office is that

Sanchez will fill it.

[VAfan]

Defense. Zobrist is highly regarded by advanced defensive metrics virtually across the board at any position he plays, while Melky Cabrera is considered to be a poor defender. Last year, Zobrist was cumulatively a +14.4 defensive player, while Cabrera was at -12.1, a difference of 26.5 runs, which is about 2.5 WAR. Their baserunning was very similar, with Cabrera putting up a -1.3 and Zobrist 2.6, almost totally a 4 run difference. In all, we'll round that to 30 runs, which is 3 wins....

 

Ben Zobrist - 5.7 WAR

Melky Cabrera - 2.6 WAR

 

And no, it's not because Zobrist can play the infield. It's because he can play everywhere well, which I think people are missing to some extent. You could play Jose Abreu everywhere but it's not going to raise his WAR simply because he did so.

 

Regarding their offensive lines, FanGraphs absolutely viewed Melky to be a superior hitter last year, posting a 125 wRC+ while Zobrist was at 119.

 

It is NOT defense. I quoted oWAR only. Even there, Zobrist was given a higher number.

[lvjeremylv]

Prospects have value for 2 reasons. The first way they have value is they are yours and under your control for a number of years. If they come up and are good players, you have their services, cheap, for anywhere from 3-5 years, I really don't know for certain. The reality, though, is that the vast majority of prospects never pan out.

 

That's where their secondary value comes in - trade chips. Even though most prospects don't pan out, there are those that do, and teams are often willing to trade something of a known quantity for something that is potentially more valuable down the road. So as far as I'm concerned, if the Sox are able to get a known, major league caliber player right now that will help them win, that's something they should do.

 

I'm not saying mortgage the entire future to try to win now, but if it takes 2 or 3 of our upper level prospects not named Rodon - I put a much higher value on top pitching prospects than I do position player prospects - then I say that's something they should do.

[LDF]

Prospects have value for 2 reasons. The first way they have value is they are yours and under your control for a number of years. If they come up and are good players, you have their services, cheap, for anywhere from 3-5 years, I really don't know for certain. The reality, though, is that the vast majority of prospects never pan out.

 

That's where their secondary value comes in - trade chips. Even though most prospects don't pan out, there are those that do, and teams are often willing to trade something of a known quantity for something that is potentially more valuable down the road. So as far as I'm concerned, if the Sox are able to get a known, major league caliber player right now that will help them win, that's something they should do.

 

I'm not saying mortgage the entire future to try to win now, but if it takes 2 or 3 of our upper level prospects not named Rodon - I put a much higher value on top pitching prospects than I do position player prospects - then I say that's something they should do.

 

i put a higher value on prospects and the farm. i hated how KW didn't 1. draft

better or had a different philosophy in drafting players. 2. he used and over

pay for key players he wanted.

 

now with the situation that is at hand, again ii am going to say this, the window

of opportunity is now, i can't believe this, but i want to use the KW way of thinking.

over pay, use SOME prospects, to get that missing piece. however try to save

the major core of the farm. that is IF the other team is willing to play ball and

be willing to accept what is being offered. if that offer is fair.

 

the team needs to know by now, someone can not completely use the free agent

route nor by trading to build the team. one is too expensive and the sox don't

have the bank that the yanks and dodgers have. second, the sox doesn't have

an endless supply of prospects to use.

[Lemon_44]

I can't see the Sox giving up at top 5 prospect for a 34 year old player. It goes against what Hahn has been saying. If they didn't have to give up Anderson, Hawkins, Montas, etc. to acquire a top SP like Samardzija, they are not going to give one to acquire Zorbrist, and why should they?

[LDF]

I can't see the Sox giving up at top 5 prospect for a 34 year old player. It goes against what Hahn has been saying. If they didn't have to give up Anderson, Hawkins, Montas, etc. to acquire a top SP like Samardzija, they are not going to give one to acquire Zorbrist, and why should they?

 

well getting Samardzija was a great piece of negotiation there. even tho i really

did like the prospects the sox gave up. the main core of prospect needs to be

define more. but i will not give up Hawkins for Zob. if it was a 1 for 1 trade

and at the most the sox will loose Hawkins, just maybe.

[witesoxfan]

It is NOT defense. I quoted oWAR only. Even there, Zobrist was given a higher number.

 

Zobrist is given a higher positional adjustment at 2B and SS, but the biggest difference between the two is defense, as I broke down above.

[GreenSox]

The question to ask in reply is...would you be willing to miss the playoffs this year if Sanchez and Johnson can't provide decent performance out of 2b?

That presumes that the Sox would make the playoffs with the good old 34 year old veteran at 2nd. Dubious assumption.

 

These Rays are like these As players...they are heavily managed. Their metrics absolutely max what they are - sort of like college teams who know how to gig the RPI. No reason to fawn all over these Rays players.

Edited January 2, 2015 by GreenSox

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

That presumes that the Sox would make the playoffs with the good old 34 year old veteran at 2nd. Dubious assumption.

 

These Rays are like these As players...they are heavily managed. Their metrics absolutely max what they are - sort of like college teams who know how to gig the RPI. No reason to fawn all over these Rays players.

 

 

I think most of us here would peg the Sox for around 83-85 wins next season. Now add 4-5 wins to that for the difference between Zobrist and Carlos/Micah. I think 87-90 wins gives us a pretty great chance at a wild card.

 

That being said, I don't think there is any chance the Sox get Zobrist because his asking price will be Anderson +, and that's just not something I can see Hahn doing.

[lvjeremylv]

I think most of us here would peg the Sox for around 83-85 wins next season. Now add 4-5 wins to that for the difference between Zobrist and Carlos/Micah. I think 87-90 wins gives us a pretty great chance at a wild card.

 

That being said, I don't think there is any chance the Sox get Zobrist because his asking price will be Anderson +, and that's just not something I can see Hahn doing.

*sigh*

 

When's the last Sox position player prospect that amounted to anything near what Ben Zobrist will produce over the next 5 years?

 

I agree Hahn probably wouldn't do it, but he really should if presented with the opportunity.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

*sigh*

 

When's the last Sox position player prospect that amounted to anything near what Ben Zobrist will produce over the next 5 years?

 

I agree Hahn probably wouldn't do it, but he really should if presented with the opportunity.

 

 

Are you expecting me or anyone else to project out Ben Zobrist for the next 5 years? He's only got 1 year left on his deal, so the following 4 years aren't really of any consequence in a possible trade.