knightni Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Jeff Samardzija has turned down a 5 year $75-80 million contract with the Cubs - and got traded to Oakland. They traded him for minimal minor league replacement to the Sox (perhaps due to not being able to extend him). What size of contract offer do you think that he would receive from the Sox? Will his agent demand an extension early to avoid arbitration, or will he accept arbitration and let the contract extension linger through the season? Will he choose free agency and not extend at all? What are your guesses, Soxtalk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 He's going to free agency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'll say he agrees to a contract extension for 6/$115M. Covers his remaining arbitration year at 10M and adds five years at $21M per. Slight home team discount IMO, but Shark still ends up with the nine figure deal he's looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From what I have read is he is from a big union family and the players union would want him to maximize his dollars. IMO, he may sign an extension, but it won't be at a discount. If I were the GM, I wouldn't be too comfortable with a 9 figure contract for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 07:13 AM) He's going to free agency. This would be my guess as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 07:13 AM) He's going to free agency. I concur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 They will announce an extension to kick off Soxfest and it was agreed to before the trade. Pure speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Think ultimately he'll test free agency. The qualifying offer will help us out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think the longer it goes, the less likely an extension is to happen, as guys like Shields and Scherzer will offer new comps. If a deal gets done, it gets done before the spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 07:13 AM) He's going to free agency. Sums it up for me. This is why I preferred the Sox went after Eovaldi, but it is what it is. If Shields ends up getting a 5-6 year deal at 100M+, it scares me to think what Samardzija will get next year at age 30. FA 2015-16 is Jeff's only shot at maximizing a big contract and he's made it pretty clear that he will do so. Nevertheless he is a White Sox pitcher and I will be cheering for him, just not going to count on him being around beyond 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
striker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's hard for me to imagine the Sox giving $100m to a pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammy esposito Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 09:30 AM) Sums it up for me. This is why I preferred the Sox went after Eovaldi, but it is what it is. If Shields ends up getting a 5-6 year deal at 100M+, it scares me to think what Samardzija will get next year at age 30. FA 2015-16 is Jeff's only shot at maximizing a big contract and he's made it pretty clear that he will do so. Nevertheless he is a White Sox pitcher and I will be cheering for him, just not going to count on him being around beyond 2015. I'm guessing that they'll be working on an extension evaluating, until trade deadline. If the sox are not in contention at trade deadline the sox will move him then. We will get some prospects back from the team that picks him up. Edited January 13, 2015 by sammy esposito Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (striker @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 09:42 AM) It's hard for me to imagine the Sox giving $100m to a pitcher. Everyone knows what he turned down from the Cubs, and what pitchers have been signing for. I don't think the Sox make the deal unless they have a pretty good idea in the back of their heads to offer him something around nine figures, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 With the way season ticket sales went up after the trade it does appear that Jeff is a bit of a draw for the Sox so that's something to at least think about. I don't think it changes the landscape too drastically for the Sox but just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 5 years $100M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Why the hell would you trade prospects for a rental? If the SOX traded for this guy for a year, they are dumber than I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (sammy esposito @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 09:43 AM) I'm guessing that they'll be working on an extension evaluating, until trade deadline. If the sox are not in contention at trade deadline the sox will move him then. We will get some prospects back from the team that picks him up. Agreed but the problem is that the Sox will not get the return that it took to acquire Samardzija in the first place. The other possibility is a comp pick from the team that signs him in FA if the Sox hold onto him and that would give the Sox the first shot at signing him in FA but it will undoubtedly be a costly shot. QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Why the hell would you trade prospects for a rental? If the SOX traded for this guy for a year, they are dumber than I thought. This is the reason I was not a fan of the idea in the first place. I do, however, appreciate the Sox changing their strategy on one year rentals in an effort to win in 2015. I guess all we can do is trust that Hahn and the Sox know what they are doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Why the hell would you trade prospects for a rental? If the SOX traded for this guy for a year, they are dumber than I thought. That is fully why I expect the Sox to offer a $100 million deal of some sort to Jeff Samardjiza. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Why the hell would you trade prospects for a rental? If the SOX traded for this guy for a year, they are dumber than I thought. Because they didn't give up any really good prospects. They aren't bad prospects, but they all have imperfections and some of them can be critical. I was the biggest Semien fan around but saw a fairly convincing argument that indicated that his IFFB% is indicative of a swing profile that will struggle in the majors and that his BB% and K% were highly inflated due to the inferiority of minor league pitching. Basically, he sits and takes first and second pitches a lot and MLB pitchers throw more strikes and have better stuff, so he was down in an 0-1 hole quicker and then has to face MLB caliber pitching as opposed to AA and AAA pitching. Chris Bassitt has solid stuff but most likely profiles as an OK middle reliever with set up guy upside. Josh Phegley didn't have a future in Chicago, so even if Oakland finds use for him, what were the Sox going to do with him? And Rangel Ravelo is a 1B prospect who hasn't shown significant in game power. His raw power might be like a 60, but he's only shown a 35 or 40 in game, which screams AAAA profile. The Sox still get one year of Samardzija, they get a prospect if he leaves via the compensation pick, and they got Michael Ynoa out of the deal too, who is a guy the Sox scouting staff raves about and considers him as a possible high leverage relief arm if everything pans out (meaning a possible closer of the future). There's still plenty to like about the trade if Samardzija leaves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:06 AM) Why the hell would you trade prospects for a rental? If the SOX traded for this guy for a year, they are dumber than I thought. If they don't extend him, they know they have the QO comp pick when he leaves. That pick is arguably, hopefully, ideally more valuable than everyone they traded other than Semien. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 11:27 AM) If they don't extend him, they know they have the QO comp pick when he leaves. That pick is arguably, hopefully, ideally more valuable than everyone they traded other than Semien. IMO, a "comp pick" is now at the point of being dramatically overrated, at least here. If you give me the choice between a comp pick and a guy at AA putting up moderately good but not spectacular numbers and ask me which one is more likely to be a big leaguer/put up >1 WAR in their career, I'll absolutely 100% say the AA guy. Something like 50% of the guys in those rounds look weak by the time they're even in the lower minors and never improve. Another big chunk is lost at the jump to AA. Then there are some who get injured. Only a fraction of comp picks ever get to the point that Ravelo or Phegley got to. Then there are guys like Phegley who get a callup and fall flat. Teams are able to stack the deck somewhat by the fact that the MLB draft has so many rounds. If you have 19 picks after the first round, and they vary from having 10% chances to make the bigs down to 1% chances in round 20, you've got a good chance to pull a big leaguer out of those rounds every year and if you're good at it or lucky maybe more than one, but adding in an extra pick with a tiny chance of making the bigs doesn't change that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:46 AM) IMO, a "comp pick" is now at the point of being dramatically overrated, at least here. If you give me the choice between a comp pick and a guy at AA putting up moderately good but not spectacular numbers and ask me which one is more likely to be a big leaguer/put up >1 WAR in their career, I'll absolutely 100% say the AA guy. Something like 50% of the guys in those rounds look weak by the time they're even in the lower minors and never improve. Another big chunk is lost at the jump to AA. Then there are some who get injured. Only a fraction of comp picks ever get to the point that Ravelo or Phegley got to. Then there are guys like Phegley who get a callup and fall flat. Teams are able to stack the deck somewhat by the fact that the MLB draft has so many rounds. If you have 19 picks after the first round, and they vary from having 10% chances to make the bigs down to 1% chances in round 20, you've got a good chance to pull a big leaguer out of those rounds every year and if you're good at it or lucky maybe more than one, but adding in an extra pick with a tiny chance of making the bigs doesn't change that. At the same time, the Sox last 2 second round picks look like absolutely phenomenal prospects at this juncture, and those picks occur after the compensatory round. It'd be a ways out. At the very, bare minimum, it's a safeguard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:51 AM) At the same time, the Sox last 2 second round picks look like absolutely phenomenal prospects at this juncture, and those picks occur after the compensatory round. It'd be a ways out. At the very, bare minimum, it's a safeguard. It also sets a market floor for a trade of Samardjiza, if that becomes necesary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2015 -> 10:46 AM) IMO, a "comp pick" is now at the point of being dramatically overrated, at least here. If you give me the choice between a comp pick and a guy at AA putting up moderately good but not spectacular numbers and ask me which one is more likely to be a big leaguer/put up >1 WAR in their career, I'll absolutely 100% say the AA guy. Something like 50% of the guys in those rounds look weak by the time they're even in the lower minors and never improve. Another big chunk is lost at the jump to AA. Then there are some who get injured. Only a fraction of comp picks ever get to the point that Ravelo or Phegley got to. Then there are guys like Phegley who get a callup and fall flat. Teams are able to stack the deck somewhat by the fact that the MLB draft has so many rounds. If you have 19 picks after the first round, and they vary from having 10% chances to make the bigs down to 1% chances in round 20, you've got a good chance to pull a big leaguer out of those rounds every year and if you're good at it or lucky maybe more than one, but adding in an extra pick with a tiny chance of making the bigs doesn't change that. I did say the comp pick is arguably more valuable, so I'm glad you're arguing. Part of that overrating has to do with what the Sox have done with second rounders lately. And the comp pick also means we get the pick's value in the signing pool, if I'm not mistaken, so that's nice too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The Sox not only got Samardzija, they also got: 1. A comp pick if he leaves, which has value 2. An exclusive window to negotiate an extension or new contract - this has value In exchange for four prospects... one of them had fallen out of favor and had no shot (Phegley), one of them could be something maybe but he's a 1B lacking power blocked by Abreu (Ravelo), and two guys they might actually miss (Semien, Bassitt). Make sure you see the whole picture. They didn't trade four prospects for a 1 year rental. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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