Phil Rogers argues for Buehrle to the Hall of Fame case building

[southsider2k5]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106283226/ph...n-consideration

[Eminor3rd]

Ugh.

[shysocks]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/106283226/ph...n-consideration

One of my favorite baseball arguments. You take the warm fuzzy stuff like a ring, gold gloves, multiple no-hitters, and tack on another 10 WAR and 5 seasons at 200 innings apiece and his argument is interesting.

 

Couple things majorly holding him back:

1. Players need peak and longevity to make the Hall. While Buehrle is in range of some unprecedented longevity, he has never dominated the league for a long stretch.

2. Hall voting for starting pitchers is just GD confusing these days, so who the hell knows.

[Eminor3rd]

Classic Phil Rogers contradictions, lol:

 

Buehrle didn't always have to rely on such finesse. He could break 90 with his fastball when he reached the big leagues, but just barely.

 

Wtf?

 

Lol, and his opening argument is Buerhle made 30 startas abunch of times, rofl.

 

Cy Young. Warren Spahn. Gaylord Perry. Christy Mathewson. Mark Buehrle. There's your list of the Major League pitchers who have started 30-plus games for 14 consecutive seasons.

 

Also, this gem from Don Cooper:

 

Cooper says Buehrle shakes off signals "about eight times every 12 years,"

 

Lol, that's awkwardly precise there, Don. "Oh man, he practically only shakes off signs point six six repeating times per season."

Edited January 13, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[flavum]

His durability is to be admired, and the Sox definitely won't let him be forgotten. He's not a Hall of Famer.

 

The future of being a HOF pitcher is get to the majors at 23, get babied for 2-3 years, be dominant for 7-10 years, and retired by 38.

 

I hope Buehrle keeps going on the 30GS/10+ wins/200 innings as long as he can, but it wouldn't surprise me if this is his last season.

Edited January 13, 2015 by flavum

[lasttriptotulsa]

Better career FIP-, WHIP and K/BB than Tom Glavine. Just sayin'.

[Leonard Zelig]

It will be really cool when Buehrle and Sale go in the same year.

[Texsox]

The Hall of Fame is a celebration of baseball and if the name is to be believed, fame. Fifty years from now do we want fans to know who MB was and what he meant to the game? Has his career been that good? That unique?

 

There are guys in the HoF now that I don't want my great grandkids thinking was what makes baseball great. I'd rather have them see a bust of MB. But I really doubt it would ever happen. We value stats over everything else, and that is probably what should happen. But I'm certain that means the people who have really made baseball great through the years will be missed while those that gave the game a black eye will be there.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't believe Buehrle is a HOF. But I would love to see him come back and pitch whether it be as a 5th starter for a few years and then pen as a long reliever/spot starter to finish his career. That is, if he has at least 3-4 years left in him.

[Chisoxfn]

Classic Phil Rogers contradictions, lol:

 

 

 

Wtf?

 

Lol, and his opening argument is Buerhle made 30 startas abunch of times, rofl.

 

 

 

Also, this gem from Don Cooper:

 

 

 

Lol, that's awkwardly precise there, Don. "Oh man, he practically only shakes off signs point six six repeating times per season."

I loved Coopers quote and I love every bit of how Buehrle pitched. He is one of my all time favorite pitchers to watch for the way he did things. Maybe that is just something that stat people can't appreciate but he was awesome to watch pitch. He was and is extremely unique on the mound.

[Chisoxfn]

The Hall of Fame is a celebration of baseball and if the name is to be believed, fame. Fifty years from now do we want fans to know who MB was and what he meant to the game? Has his career been that good? That unique?

 

There are guys in the HoF now that I don't want my great grandkids thinking was what makes baseball great. I'd rather have them see a bust of MB. But I really doubt it would ever happen. We value stats over everything else, and that is probably what should happen. But I'm certain that means the people who have really made baseball great through the years will be missed while those that gave the game a black eye will be there.

I think Buehrle's argument is in how long he can be effective and it will be that uniqueness (if he can sustain it another 3-5 years) that makes him a potential candidate (especially in an era which was tainted by steroids). The question is at that point in time, how much will the entire voting be done by people who purely measure everything by the numbers. To me, there is and always will be a place for both.

[Heads22]

I wouldn't be surprised if he retired tomorrow, to be honest. I don't think he'll accrue the numbers.

[fmartija]

I love everything Buehrle did for the Sox, but he is not even close to one of the best pitchers of his generation. His durability is to be admired, but the body of work is merely 'ok'

[LDF]

I love everything Buehrle did for the Sox, but he is not even close to one of the best pitchers of his generation. His durability is to be admired, but the body of work is merely 'ok'

 

i am really divided on this, as a fan of Buehrle i want him in the HOF, but i agree with you.

i can flip-flop on this subject.

[SoxAce]

If he keeps going the way he is, he's in. I just don't see him doing it however. The real question later will be other than having his number retired here, will he get a statue also?

[ewokpelts]

If he keeps going the way he is, he's in. I just don't see him doing it however. The real question later will be other than having his number retired here, will he get a statue also?

If they gave konerko a statue BEFORE he retired, they will give one to buehrle when he returns to the sox.

All the living players who have had their numbers retired have gotten a statue(konerko's will be retired this year). And Buehrle will most definitely get his number retired.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

At this point, Buehrle is no way a HOFer. But remember, he is only 35. He has always talked about retiring early, but I think if he were really going to he would have done it after 2011. Until he does retire, let's assume that he plays until he nobody wants him anymore like most players do. Given his pitching style and near flawless delivery, I think he has a minimum of 5 years left should he choose to play them. Let's just assume he can stay right around his career averages for those five years. And let's face it, he hasn't diminished all that much in 14 seasons and last year was his best in 5 years.

 

If we assume he pitches 5 more years and performs near his 5 year averages, his all time ranks become fairly impressive.

 

Wins - 263 - 41st

IP - 4108 - 38th

Ks - 2370 - 43rd

fWAR - 67 - 35th

 

It has the look of a classic compiler, but let's face it, there are plenty of compilers in the HOF. When you add those numbers to the 4+ Gold Gloves, 5+ All-Stars, World Series ring, a perfect game, another no hitter, the consecutive batters retired record (since broken), the durability factor of never missing a start and numerous other things, he would have a legitimate case. I really think the best comparable would be Don Sutton. Let's look at the numbers side by side assuming Buehrle keeps pitching.

 

Don Sutton - 324-256, 3.26 ERA, 108 ERA+, 5282.1 IP, 1.142 WHIP, 2.66 K/BB, 85.8 fWAR

 

Mark Buehrle - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 1.283 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB, 67 fWAR

 

Both classic compilers, and when you consider that Buehrle pitched through a good portion of the steroid era, the numbers are pretty close. The biggest difference is that Sutton pitched during a time when starters pitched between 35-40 starts a year and Buehrle pitched during a time when they pitched 30-35 so he was able to accrue quite a few more wins. Buehrle has actually won a near identical percentage of his starts as Sutton, 42.2% to 42.4%.

 

Now my gut feeling is that Buehrle will not be a Hall of Famer, but he definitely has more of a potential than people are giving him credit for. Another fun fact is that Buehrle is the ONLY pitcher (modern era) to ever face the minimum 27 batters in a game 3 times and one of 2 pitchers to throw 2, 27 batter no hitters (other is Koufax).

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[fmartija]

At this point, Buehrle is no way a HOFer. But remember, he is only 35. He has always talked about retiring early, but I think if he were really going to he would have done it after 2011. Until he does retire, let's assume that he plays until he nobody wants him anymore like most players do. Given his pitching style and near flawless delivery, I think he has a minimum of 5 years left should he choose to play them. Let's just assume he can stay right around his career averages for those five years. And let's face it, he hasn't diminished all that much in 14 seasons and last year was his best in 5 years.

 

If we assume he pitches 5 more years and performs near his 5 year averages, his all time ranks become fairly impressive.

 

Wins - 263 - 41st

IP - 4108 - 38th

Ks - 2370 - 43rd

fWAR - 67 - 35th

 

It has the look of a classic compiler, but let's face it, there are plenty of compilers in the HOF. When you add those numbers to the 4+ Gold Gloves, 5+ All-Stars, World Series ring, a perfect game, another no hitter, the consecutive batters retired record (since broken), the durability factor of never missing a start and numerous other things, he would have a legitimate case. I really think the best comparable would be Don Sutton. Let's look at the numbers side by side assuming Buehrle keeps pitching.

 

Don Sutton - 324-256, 3.26 ERA, 108 ERA+, 5282.1 IP, 1.142 WHIP, 2.66 K/BB, 85.8 fWAR

 

Mark Buehrle - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 1.283 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB, 67 fWAR

 

Both classic compilers, and when you consider that Buehrle pitched through a good portion of the steroid era, the numbers are pretty close. The biggest difference is that Sutton pitched during a time when starters pitched between 35-40 starts a year and Buehrle pitched during a time when they pitched 30-35 so he was able to accrue quite a few more wins. Buehrle has actually won a near identical percentage of his starts as Sutton, 42.2% to 42.4%.

 

Now my gut feeling is that Buehrle will not be a Hall of Famer, but he definitely has more of a potential than people are giving him credit for. Another fun fact is that Buehrle is the ONLY pitcher (modern era) to ever face the minimum 27 batters in a game 3 times and one of 2 pitchers to throw 2, 27 batter no hitters (other is Koufax).

 

Is Tim Hudson a HOFer? He's the closest comp in the current total IP

 

Buerhle: 3084.2 IP, 199-152, 3.81 ERA, 1.28WHIP, 1779K

Hudson: 3003 IP, 214-124, 3.45 ERA, 1.23WHIP, 2016K

 

Very similar across the board, with Hudson bettering Buehrle in K's.

 

[southsider2k5]

Even though the odds are basically zero, there is no player I would rather see get into the Hall of Fame than Mark Buehrle.

[NorthSideSox72]

If he keeps going the way he is, he's in. I just don't see him doing it however. The real question later will be other than having his number retired here, will he get a statue also?

He's definitely getting a statue. Agree on the rest though - if he keeps being what he is now for another 3-5 years, he's in the discussion. But I think he retires well before that.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

Is Tim Hudson a HOFer? He's the closest comp in the current total IP

 

Buerhle: 3084.2 IP, 199-152, 3.81 ERA, 1.28WHIP, 1779K

Hudson: 3003 IP, 214-124, 3.45 ERA, 1.23WHIP, 2016K

 

Very similar across the board, with Hudson bettering Buehrle in K's.

 

No. Of course he's not. Did you read my post? The entire thing was about Buehrle entering the HOF discussion if he can perform at his current level for 5 more years. Tim Hudson is not the best comparison because he is nearly 40 (4 years older than Buehrle) and is entering his final year. If Buehrle continues (as I said in my post) to play for 5 or so more years, he will beat Hudson's career totals by around 20% so he's not really a good comparison to the potential scenario I laid out.

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[fmartija]

No. Of course he's not. Did you read my post? The entire thing was about Buehrle entering the HOF discussion if he can perform at his current level for 5 more years. Tim Hudson is not the best comparison because he is nearly 40 (4 years older than Buehrle) and is entering his final year. If Buehrle continues (as I said in my post) to play for 5 or so more years, he will beat Hudson's career totals by around 20% so he's not really a good comparison to the potential scenario I laid out.

 

For discussions sake, if he had 5 more years, we'll see the ERA rise, not fall....the WHIP likely rise, not fall. At this stage, with his stuff, i would not be surprised to see him put up more >4.00-4.50 ERA years, especially in the AL east. I don't see a 'level performance' possible, as his fastball averages 83 mph these days (and change up is 78mph)

 

I'm more willing to bet that extending his career will be more detrimental to his overall numbers, than helpful.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Armchair Hahn

[cabiness42]

Mark needed at least 2 more years like 2005 in order to get into the HOF discussion. Yes, five more years at his current production compiles him some very nice career totals. But a FIP over 4 does not scream HOF at me, regardless for how long you do it.

[lasttriptotulsa]

For discussions sake, if he had 5 more years, we'll see the ERA rise, not fall....the WHIP likely rise, not fall. At this stage, with his stuff, i would not be surprised to see him put up more >4.00-4.50 ERA years, especially in the AL east. I don't see a 'level performance' possible, as his fastball averages 83 mph these days (and change up is 78mph)

 

I'm more willing to bet that extending his career will be more detrimental to his overall numbers, than helpful.

 

He's pitched over 3000 innings in the Majors to this point. After 3000 innings it is incredibly difficult to move rate stats much in either direction. If he pitches 1000 more innings at a 4.25 ERA, his career ERA will only rise from 3.81 to 3.92 and if he pitches 1000 more innings of a 1.400 WHIP, his career WHIP will only rise from 1.283 to 1.312. Those are not significant differences that would hurt his Hall chances. There is also no reason to believe his numbers will decline that rapidly, that quickly as he has been remarkably consistent and has the pitching acumen to adapt as his stuff diminishes. His rate stats are not HOF worthy as it is. The only way he gets in is to acquire the counting stats. He cannot acquire the counting stats if he does not pitch.

 

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

Mark needed at least 2 more years like 2005 in order to get into the HOF discussion. Yes, five more years at his current production compiles him some very nice career totals. But a FIP over 4 does not scream HOF at me, regardless for how long you do it.

 

The problem with FIP, when it comes to a pitcher like Buehrle, is that is does not in any way take into account his defense or his ability to completely eliminate the running game. His ERA has consistently been significantly better than his FIP and the difference between the two correlates pretty well with his defensive runs saved.

 

This is a great Grantland article from last year that talks about this very point.

 

http://grantland.com/features/mark-buehrle...rising-success/

 

A pitchers defensive ability is seldom even mentioned when talking about the HOF, but really there is no reason that it shouldn't be. A DRS is a DRS whether you were a pitcher or a shortstop.

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa