Phil Rogers argues for Buehrle to the Hall of Fame case building

[Eminor3rd]

I loved Coopers quote and I love every bit of how Buehrle pitched. He is one of my all time favorite pitchers to watch for the way he did things. Maybe that is just something that stat people can't appreciate but he was awesome to watch pitch. He was and is extremely unique on the mound.

 

I'm criticizing the terrible writing, not Buerhle.

[cabiness42]

The problem with FIP, when it comes to a pitcher like Buehrle, is that is does not in any way take into account his defense or his ability to completely eliminate the running game. His ERA has consistently been significantly better than his FIP and the difference between the two correlates pretty well with his defensive runs saved.

 

This is a great Grantland article from last year that talks about this very point.

 

http://grantland.com/features/mark-buehrle...rising-success/

 

A pitchers defensive ability is seldom even mentioned when talking about the HOF, but really there is no reason that it shouldn't be. A DRS is a DRS whether you were a pitcher or a shortstop.

 

His career ERA is 3.81 though. Even if you use that standard instead of his FIP it doesn't really move the needle much. Like I said, he needed a couple more 2005-like seasons.

 

EDIT: You do make a good point about how valuing pitching shouldn't be entirely fielding-independent if the pitcher himself is adding the value through his fielding. Kinda the same line of thinking as to why it's really dumb that a run is still unearned even if it's the pitcher's own dumbass error that allowed the run to score. It's as if the guy throwing the pitches and the guy fielding the position are treated as two separate guys.

Edited January 14, 2015 by HickoryHuskers

[lasttriptotulsa]

His career ERA is 3.81 though. Even if you use that standard instead of his FIP it doesn't really move the needle much. Like I said, he needed a couple more 2005-like seasons.

 

EDIT: You do make a good point about how valuing pitching shouldn't be entirely fielding-independent if the pitcher himself is adding the value through his fielding. Kinda the same line of thinking as to why it's really dumb that a run is still unearned even if it's the pitcher's own dumbass error that allowed the run to score. It's as if the guy throwing the pitches and the guy fielding the position are treated as two separate guys.

 

His 3.81 ERA is high for the Hall when looking at it without context. The average HOFer has an ERA of 2.98 and the highest is Red Ruffing at 3.80. The average ERA+ of starters in the HOF is 123, Buehrle sits at 117. Some others around that number include Warren Spahn (119), Bert Blyleven (118), Steve Carlton (115), Gaylord Perry (117), Fergie Jenkins (115) and Nolan Ryan (112)

 

The average HOFer also has 253 Ws, 3801 IPs, 2153 Ks, and 70 bWAR. Those are all numbers that Buehrle can reach should he choose to. I used bWAR here because with the talk about FIP and its inaccuracies with pitchers like Buehrle I felt it appropriate even though it is generally less accurate.

 

If you look strictly at bWAR, Buehrle would currently be ranked 47th amongst HOFers with a chance to move to the top 25-30 if he keeps pitching.

 

Buehrle certainly has some detractions that will probably keep him out. He never really came close to winning a Cy Young, he was never viewed as being that dominate and he didn't really have a pitch that was memorable. I.E. Ryan's fastball, Big Unit's slider or Blyleven's curveball.

 

Again, I don't think he gets in, but it would certainly not be a joke if he did. He has already had a better career than some inducted and would move to the middle of the pack if he pitches another 5 years.

 

Overall he was not one of the best pitchers to ever play the game, but he was above average and at time significantly above average. Combine that with his consistency and durability and he really has been one of the most valuable pitchers that we've seen.

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[southsider2k5]

His 3.81 ERA is high for the Hall when looking at it without context. The average HOFer has an ERA of 2.98 and the highest is Red Ruffing at 3.80. The average ERA+ of starters in the HOF is 123, Buehrle sits at 117. Some others around that number include Warren Spahn (119), Bert Blyleven (118), Steve Carlton (115), Gaylord Perry (117), Fergie Jenkins (115) and Nolan Ryan (112)

 

The average HOFer also has 253 Ws, 3801 IPs, 2153 Ks, and 70 bWAR. Those are all numbers that Buehrle can reach should he choose to. I used bWAR here because with the talk about FIP and its inaccuracies with pitchers like Buehrle I felt it appropriate even though it is generally less accurate.

 

If you look strictly at bWAR, Buehrle would currently be ranked 47th amongst HOFers with a chance to move to the top 25-30 if he keeps pitching.

 

Buehrle certainly has some detractions that will probably keep him out. He never really came close to winning a Cy Young, he was never viewed as being that dominate and he didn't really have a pitch that was memorable. I.E. Ryan's fastball, Big Unit's slider or Blyleven's curveball.

 

Again, I don't think he gets in, but it would certainly not be a joke if he did. He has already had a better career than some inducted and would move to the middle of the pack if he pitches another 5 years.

 

Overall he was not one of the best pitchers to ever play the game, but he was above average and at time significantly above average. Combine that with his consistency and durability and he really has been one of the most valuable pitchers that we've seen.

 

I HATE ERA being discussed for the HOF. It totally misses era context. A 3.81 era while Buehrle pitched is pretty damned good. While Ted Lyons pitched it would have had you run out of baseball.

[fmartija]

when it comes to HOF discussions, its usually about how a player is relative to his generation. Thats what it comes down to....do you think Mark Buerhle was one of the best pitchers of his generation? I resoundingly say "no"!

[lasttriptotulsa]

I HATE ERA being discussed for the HOF. It totally misses era context. A 3.81 era while Buehrle pitched is pretty damned good. While Ted Lyons pitched it would have had you run out of baseball.

 

Exactly. I think it's fairly safe to say that if Buehrle came up in today's pitching environment instead of during the steroid era that his career ERA would be at least a half run lower.

[lasttriptotulsa]

when it comes to HOF discussions, its usually about how a player is relative to his generation. Thats what it comes down to....do you think Mark Buerhle was one of the best pitchers of his generation? I resoundingly say "no"!

 

It's a combination of both relative to your generation and where you stand all time. At their best Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito were better than Mark Buehrle. Let's see who ends up with more HOF votes when all is said and done.

 

I would say that Buehrle was absolutely one of the best of his generation all things considered. During the 2000s, Buehrle was 8th in fWAR and 4th in wins in all of baseball.

 

And by the way, we are on a Sox message board and Buehrle pitched 12 seasons for the Sox. Can we at least show him enough respect to spell his name right?

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[fmartija]

It's a combination of both relative to your generation and where you stand all time. At their best Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito were better than Mark Buehrle. Let's see who ends up with more HOF votes when all is said and done.

 

I would say that Buehrle was absolutely one of the best of his generation all things considered. During the 2000s, Buehrle was 8th in fWAR and 4th in wins in all of baseball.

 

so lets say i give you that 5 year 'extension' as you discussed. i think Buehrle comps similarly to Andy Pettitte in terms of overall numbers. What do you feel about Pettitte for HOF worthiness?

 

Just doing a search of most IP between 1996-2014, i came up with Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Curt Shilling, Clemens (yeah i know...roids) as guys who can make their HOF argument before Buehrle...

 

I see Buerhle more of a 'very good' on the same level as Tim Hudson, Jaime Moyer, Bartolo Colon, Pettitte

 

This doesn't even really account the younger generation who overlaps with the latter half of Buerhle's career that could block him out...Verlander, King Felix...etc.

 

There are just too many people i would take over him

 

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

so lets say i give you that 5 year 'extension' as you discussed. i think Buehrle comps similarly to Andy Pettitte in terms of overall numbers. What do you feel about Pettitte for HOF worthiness?

 

Just doing a search of most IP between 1996-2014, i came up with Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Mike Mussina, Curt Shilling, Clemens (yeah i know...roids) as guys who can make their HOF argument before Buehrle...

 

I see Buerhle more of a 'very good' on the same level as Tim Hudson, Jaime Moyer, Bartolo Colon, Pettitte

 

This doesn't even really account the younger generation who overlaps with the latter half of Buerhle's career that could block him out...Verlander, King Felix...etc.

 

There are just too many people i would take over him

 

Andy Pettitte is an admitted PED user so he may not be the best comparison as he will probably never get in, but if the PED use had never surface I think Pettitte would have been inducted. The Hall of Fame is a reflection of a player's entire career, not just a single season or just their peaks. You can get in by having a insanely high peak, an insanely high overall value or a combination of the two. Buehrle is a perfect combination of peak and total career worth.

Edited January 14, 2015 by lasttriptotulsa

[greg775]

I loved Coopers quote and I love every bit of how Buehrle pitched. He is one of my all time favorite pitchers to watch for the way he did things. Maybe that is just something that stat people can't appreciate but he was awesome to watch pitch. He was and is extremely unique on the mound.

 

Amen!

Of course he'll deserve the Hall but he won't get in. The Hall of Fame will be ignoring starting pitchers in the future. Not enough wins over a long enough period of time because of injuries and starters getting pulled early too.

Mark Buehrle won't have to feel badly for not getting the honor he deserves. Cause no starters will be getting in the Hall. Their numbers just won't compare to the golden oldie guys who defined the high high standard of hall of Fame pitcher.

But is Mark a Hall of Famer? Of course.

[Balta1701]

Amen!

Of course he'll deserve the Hall but he won't get in. The Hall of Fame will be ignoring starting pitchers in the future. Not enough wins over a long enough period of time because of injuries and starters getting pulled early too.

Mark Buehrle won't have to feel badly for not getting the honor he deserves. Cause no starters will be getting in the Hall. Their numbers just won't compare to the golden oldie guys who defined the high high standard of hall of Fame pitcher.

But is Mark a Hall of Famer? Of course.

I think there are several starters very likely to get in out of the pitchers we see right now. Kershaw, Hernandez, Verlander with a good shot, Wainwright with a good shot. Scherzer holds up well and you could make a case for him but he needs more time. The you could make a case for a bunch of the young guns having chances if they stay healthy-ish as well. Chris Sale goes 10 years without an arm injury and he's a hall of famer and there are probably 10 other guys in the bigs you can say that about right now.

[Vance Law]

How rad would it be if Buehrle came up with a knuckleball a couple years from now?

[fmartija]

Amen!

Of course he'll deserve the Hall but he won't get in. The Hall of Fame will be ignoring starting pitchers in the future. Not enough wins over a long enough period of time because of injuries and starters getting pulled early too.

Mark Buehrle won't have to feel badly for not getting the honor he deserves. Cause no starters will be getting in the Hall. Their numbers just won't compare to the golden oldie guys who defined the high high standard of hall of Fame pitcher.

But is Mark a Hall of Famer? Of course.

 

I believe you to be incorrect on both fronts....we're in a golden age of pitching right now...Clayton Kershaw, King Felix, Chris Sale....all these guys have the ability to put up HOF numbers, and get in. As said previously, they won't be completely compared to prior HOF inductees....different eras, different game. But because of the shift towards pitching recently, their ratio numbers are going to be fantastic compared to some other HOF inductees. Maybe they won't get counting stats, but their numbers will be impressive.

 

...and Buehrle still isn't a HOF, IMO.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

It will be really cool when Buehrle and Sale go in the same year.

This. Buehrle's career is hilarious. I wouldn't be surprised if he retired next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he had two more stints on the Sox. I think HOF is a stretch, but I look forward to attending his statue ceremony one day at the Cell. Thomas and Buehrle are 1 and 1a to me when it comes to favorite Sox.

[fmartija]

This. Buehrle's career is hilarious. I wouldn't be surprised if he retired next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he had two more stints on the Sox. I think HOF is a stretch, but I look forward to attending his statue ceremony one day at the Cell. Thomas and Buehrle are 1 and 1a to me when it comes to favorite Sox.

 

agreed. I should disclose that Buehrle is one of my favorite Sox ever....so i'm merely trying to be unbiased when arguing against his case for the Hall.

[Texsox]

Would the hall be better as a Hall of Stats or a Hall of Fame? Serious question? Why does it exist? As a celebration of baseball, guys like Mark with sliding on the tarp during rain delays and pitching no hitters, winning a lot of games, over a long time, seems better than a statue of a guy who cheated, lied, etc with better stats. It seems to me there should be room for guys that made baseball a better sport by having played the game. You know the FAMEous.

[fmartija]

Would the hall be better as a Hall of Stats or a Hall of Fame? Serious question? Why does it exist? As a celebration of baseball, guys like Mark with sliding on the tarp during rain delays and pitching no hitters, winning a lot of games, over a long time, seems better than a statue of a guy who cheated, lied, etc with better stats. It seems to me there should be room for guys that made baseball a better sport by having played the game. You know the FAMEous.

 

Oh no doubt....Buehrle's tarp sliding stats far exceed anyone else. Strikeouts? No...but tarp sliding? yes

[Eminor3rd]

His 3.81 ERA is high for the Hall when looking at it without context. The average HOFer has an ERA of 2.98 and the highest is Red Ruffing at 3.80. The average ERA+ of starters in the HOF is 123, Buehrle sits at 117. Some others around that number include Warren Spahn (119), Bert Blyleven (118), Steve Carlton (115), Gaylord Perry (117), Fergie Jenkins (115) and Nolan Ryan (112)

 

The average HOFer also has 253 Ws, 3801 IPs, 2153 Ks, and 70 bWAR. Those are all numbers that Buehrle can reach should he choose to. I used bWAR here because with the talk about FIP and its inaccuracies with pitchers like Buehrle I felt it appropriate even though it is generally less accurate.

 

If you look strictly at bWAR, Buehrle would currently be ranked 47th amongst HOFers with a chance to move to the top 25-30 if he keeps pitching.

 

Buehrle certainly has some detractions that will probably keep him out. He never really came close to winning a Cy Young, he was never viewed as being that dominate and he didn't really have a pitch that was memorable. I.E. Ryan's fastball, Big Unit's slider or Blyleven's curveball.

 

Again, I don't think he gets in, but it would certainly not be a joke if he did. He has already had a better career than some inducted and would move to the middle of the pack if he pitches another 5 years.

 

Overall he was not one of the best pitchers to ever play the game, but he was above average and at time significantly above average. Combine that with his consistency and durability and he really has been one of the most valuable pitchers that we've seen.

 

The bolded lines are not consistent, IMO. It takes more than an above average player to make the HOF cut.

 

Buehrle is awesome; not even close to a hall-of-famer.

[lasttriptotulsa]

The bolded lines are not consistent, IMO. It takes more than an above average player to make the HOF cut.

 

Buehrle is awesome; not even close to a hall-of-famer.

 

Not yet, but if the scenario that I laid out earlier plays out I really need you to explain to me why two of these guys are first ballot Hall of Famers and why one of them is not even close.

 

Player A - 305-203, 3.54 ERA, 118 ERA+, 4413.1 IP, 2607 K, 1.314 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.74 K/BB, 64.3 fWAR

 

Player B - 213-155, 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3473 IP, 3084 K, 1.176 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.05 K/BB, 78.7 fWAR

 

Player C - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 2323 K, 1.283 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.54 K/BB, 67.0 fWAR

[Eminor3rd]

Not yet, but if the scenario that I laid out earlier plays out I really need you to explain to me why two of these guys are first ballot Hall of Famers and why one of them is not even close.

 

Player A - 305-203, 3.54 ERA, 118 ERA+, 4413.1 IP, 2607 K, 1.314 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.74 K/BB, 64.3 fWAR

 

Player B - 213-155, 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3473 IP, 3084 K, 1.176 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.05 K/BB, 78.7 fWAR

 

Player C - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 2323 K, 1.283 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.54 K/BB, 67.0 fWAR

 

Well, I don't buy the argument that just because one mistake was made, we need to keep making more. Like, for example, Jim Rice does NOT belong in the HOF, but he's there. Does that mean we have to induct every guy better than Jim Rice now? I say no.

 

That said (I'm assuming Player C is a projected Buerhle line if he did 5 more years at his current level), if a guy eclipses 60 fWAR, he should usually at least be considered.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[lasttriptotulsa]

Well, I don't buy the argument that just because one mistake was made, we need to keep making more. Like, for example, Jim Rice does NOT belong in the HOF, but he's there. Does that mean we have to induct every guy better than Jim Rice now? I say no.

 

That said (I'm assuming Player C is a projected Buerhle line if he did 5 more years at his current level), if a guy eclipses 60 fWAR, he should usually at least be considered.

 

So you wouldn't put Tom Glavine or John Smoltz in the Hall of Fame?

 

Yes Player C is Buehrle if he pitches 5 more seasons at the same level as his last 5. By the way Buehrle is at 51.8 fWAR today. So by your 60 fWAR rule he is only 3 of his average seasons or 2 of his good seasons away from at least being in consideration.

[Eminor3rd]

So you wouldn't put Tom Glavine or John Smoltz in the Hall of Fame?

 

Yes Player C is Buehrle if he pitches 5 more seasons at the same level as his last 5. By the way Buehrle is at 51.8 fWAR today. So by your 60 fWAR rule he is only 3 of his average seasons or 2 of his good seasons away from at least being in consideration.

 

I'm not saying that, I'm just saying I don't buy the logic that "if guy A is in, similar guy B has to be in" in general because there are so many mistakes there already.

 

The 60 fWAR rule was a Bill James "rule of thumb" I read in his book, I think.

[southsider2k5]

I'm not saying that, I'm just saying I don't buy the logic that "if guy A is in, similar guy B has to be in" in general because there are so many mistakes there already.

 

The 60 fWAR rule was a Bill James "rule of thumb" I read in his book, I think.

 

Totally agree with you on this. It just leads to the argument we see above where you line up their stats and if they are really close, you put them in. That isn't what the HOF is about.

[LittleHurt05]

Not yet, but if the scenario that I laid out earlier plays out I really need you to explain to me why two of these guys are first ballot Hall of Famers and why one of them is not even close.

 

Player A - 305-203, 3.54 ERA, 118 ERA+, 4413.1 IP, 2607 K, 1.314 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.74 K/BB, 64.3 fWAR - Part of Braves pitching "dynasty"

 

Player B - 213-155, 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3473 IP, 3084 K, 1.176 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.05 K/BB, 78.7 fWAR, 154 saves - Part of Braves pitching "dynasty"

 

Player C - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 2323 K, 1.283 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.54 K/BB, 67.0 fWAR

 

I added two key components that were missing from your stats. That's a big reason why those two are first ballot Hall of Famers, so simply comparing Mark's stats doesn't tell the whole story. (I'm not saying it's right, that's just the way it is)

[fmartija]

Not yet, but if the scenario that I laid out earlier plays out I really need you to explain to me why two of these guys are first ballot Hall of Famers and why one of them is not even close.

 

Player A - 305-203, 3.54 ERA, 118 ERA+, 4413.1 IP, 2607 K, 1.314 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.74 K/BB, 64.3 fWAR

 

Player B - 213-155, 3.33 ERA, 125 ERA+, 3473 IP, 3084 K, 1.176 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.05 K/BB, 78.7 fWAR

 

Player C - 263-207, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+, 4108 IP, 2323 K, 1.283 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.54 K/BB, 67.0 fWAR

 

There are certain magic numbers that A & B hit that are HOF benchmarks, but you have to look at their individual seasons to really get how good they were.

 

Player A (Tom Glavine) - 300 wins.....thats huge in the HOF eyes. but also, his career from 1991-1997 were pretty darn good...he just happened to stick around long enough in the aging curve to really suppress his WHIP #s. But I like to think of Frank Thomas...really damned good/elite in the 90s, but 2001-2007 was good, but not elite. He got in because of those 90s numbers. Comparatively Buehrle throughout his career has been consistently good, but only one season (2005) where he might have been considered near the top of MLB.

 

Player (B) Smoltz - 3000 strikeouts...again his numbers as a starter in the 90s were really really good/elite. Then as a closer he also was really good.

 

So ultimately, Glavine & Smoltz had very good peaks, and then tapered off, where Buerhle was 'good'...not elite, but good.