Nationals Trade Prospects? Rent-another-pitcher?

[Eminor3rd]

 

Hello...I've been reading this site for quite awhile, and I finally decided to "dip my toe in the water".

 

I don't understand the posters' infatuation with prospects...other than Gio Gonzalez, when was the last time, over the last 10 seasons, that the Sox traded away a prospect who amounted to anything?

 

Welcome to the board, Stev-o.

 

This is flawed logic.

 

1. Just because the Sox haven't traded anyone significant lately doesn't mean prospects always bust. Look at all of the young superstars in the game right now.

2. By looking only at the prospects that the Sox have traded, you're limiting yourself ONLY to the ones they were willing to give up. For example, do you think they ever considered Chris Sale to be trade bait?

3. Gio Gonzalez IS an example of what these guys can turn into.

[lasttriptotulsa]

That's not how compensation works anymore. The Sox will offer him a one year contract for somewhere around 15-17 mil, depending on what the number is next offseason, and if he rejects and signs somewhere else we get their first round pick if is unprotected.

 

That's not how it works either. If the Sox make him a qualifying offer and he declines, the Sox don't get the pick from the team who signed him. They get a sandwich pick between the first and second round. The first round pick from the team who signed him just vanishes (2nd round if they are in the first 10 picks).

[LDF]

That's not how it works either. If the Sox make him a qualifying offer and he declines, the Sox don't get the pick from the team who signed him. They get a sandwich pick between the first and second round. The first round pick from the team who signed him just vanishes (2nd round if they are in the first 10 picks).

 

exactly and for this yr it will be the top 11 being protected, and those picks will

be valued first before any other FA signings.

[SJB23]

Welcome to the board, Stev-o.

 

This is flawed logic.

 

1. Just because the Sox haven't traded anyone significant lately doesn't mean prospects always bust. Look at all of the young superstars in the game right now.

2. By looking only at the prospects that the Sox have traded, you're limiting yourself ONLY to the ones they were willing to give up. For example, do you think they ever considered Chris Sale to be trade bait?

3. Gio Gonzalez IS an example of what these guys can turn into.

 

 

My point is..."prospects", more often than not, remain nothing more than prospects. IMO, if you can trade them for proven commodities that can help you win NOW, you do it. As some wise dude once said, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.".

[fmartija]

I don't think it's one or the other.

 

Hahn, at least at face value, has stated his interest to sign Samardzija. When trading him they factored in the fact that they could trade him in July if the season falls apart and they could get a draft pick if they were to be priced out.

 

that was the beauty of the trade for him...he's good to the point that you have so many options of what you can do with him midseason or post season. I don't see the Sox being that far out of it in july (2 wild cards race) that they trade him. But i don't see them signing him to a long term deal either.

[Eminor3rd]

My point is..."prospects", more often than not, remain nothing more than prospects. IMO, if you can trade them for proven commodities that can help you win NOW, you do it. As some wise dude once said, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.".

 

Right, but they're a necessary evil. The fact that they bust a lot just means you need a bunch of them. If you don't develop any homegrown talent, you have to buy it on the free agent market, and the Sox can;t afford that.

 

I mean, look at this year's team: Payroll is almost $120m and we still have holes to fill, despite the fact that our contract situation is relatively clean AND we have several major contributors that have come from our system. I can't think of a single WS winner that didn't have major core pieces that were homegrown.

 

I'm with you on the bird-in-the-hand thing, but prospects are about the future, where aging veterans are far from sure things themselves. If we're going to actually achieve this "sustained winning" thing, we gotta always keep on eye on the three-year plan.

[LDF]

My point is..."prospects", more often than not, remain nothing more than prospects. IMO, if you can trade them for proven commodities that can help you win NOW, you do it. As some wise dude once said, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.".

 

that whole thing sounds like a lot of KW saying. but just to trade for the sake of

trading is not a wise way to use your prospects. even i who is spouting on trading

the prospects, will say, make the best possible trade for the right reason.

[LDF]

Right, but they're a necessary evil. The fact that they bust a lot just means you need a bunch of them. If you don't develop any homegrown talent, you have to buy it on the free agent market, and the Sox can;t afford that.

 

I mean, look at this year's team: Payroll is almost $120m and we still have holes to fill, despite the fact that our contract situation is relatively clean AND we have several major contributors that have come from our system. I can't think of a single WS winner that didn't have major core pieces that were homegrown.

 

I'm with you on the bird-in-the-hand thing, but prospects are about the future, where aging veterans are far from sure things themselves. If we're going to actually achieve this "sustained winning" thing, we gotta always keep on eye on the three-year plan.

 

and even then, the sox still have some homegrown players on that team.

 

good point.

[southsider2k5]

Understand when looking at the Sox prospects as a whole (sans 2013 and 2014) that the Sox have had one of the worst systems in baseball. The Sox spent less money than any other team on the draft from 2003-2012. They also had their international scouting department hijacked and compromised.

 

While you do still have a point, both schools of thought have had success in the MLB. The Tigers are a team who almost always trade their top prospects, get ripped for it by internet people and still seem to be okay. The Cardinals rarely trade their prospects and have a few World Series in the past decade.

 

The Tigers have had to explode their payroll to support that team though. Because of that their window seems to be closing. They just lost what is probably their top pitcher going forward, and are looking at replacing him with an older/lesser guy in someone like Shields.

 

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

You're wrong here. This article is from 2013 but it's the same CBA.

 

 

 

The pick, or more technically speaking, the slot value, vanishes if the team signing the player has a protected draft pick. So if the Cubs pick 11th in 2016 and sign Samardzija next offseason we would get their 11th pick assuming we offered a QO.

 

So this offseason since the Sox have a protected first round pick, the Yankees and Blue Jays will be awarded sandwich picks and the Sox lose their 2nd and 3rd round slot values. If the Sox had an unprotected pick and the same scenario played out, the Yankees would be awarded with our first round pick and the Blue Jays would get a sandwich pick. The Sox would lose their 1st and 2nd round values.

 

Pretty sure you're wrong here. We do NOT get the Cub's 11th pick in that scenario, we get a sandwich pick at the end of the first round. The scenario would hold true in the previous CBA (Though I believe it was Top 15 protected). That's what also what the last sentence in your quote stated as well.

 

For instance in last year's draft, 4 teams, Atlanta, Texas, Baltimore, Yankees sign free agents who received QO, and their former teams, all received a sandwich pick at the end of the first round, no one received the actual pick of the team that signed their free agents.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Major_Le..._Baseball_Draft

[fmartija]

yeah, when i said "type A", "type B" free agent, it was always also in reference to receiving sandwich picks.

[thxfrthmmrs]

My point is..."prospects", more often than not, remain nothing more than prospects. IMO, if you can trade them for proven commodities that can help you win NOW, you do it. As some wise dude once said, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.".

 

You need to consider major league ready prospects make less than 5% of the salary of the "proven commodities" you're talking about. No teams can field a team full of "proven commodities".

[fmartija]

the truly successful teams have a nice mix of homegrown players, a couple of key free agents, and a seemingly endless supply of players that can replace the homegrown players when they hit free agency and become too expensive.

 

we know from experience that draining the farm of all talent can only work so long before you are an aging team full of paralyzing contracts.

[LDF]

the truly successful teams have a nice mix of homegrown players, a couple of key free agents, and a seemingly endless supply of players that can replace the homegrown players when they hit free agency and become too expensive.

 

we know from experience that draining the farm of all talent can only work so long before you are an aging team full of paralyzing contracts.

 

the sox system is all screwed up before Hahn came in. really bad drafting and other

things stated in a previous post. the thing is the sox may be 1 more player that might

make the difference. this is a steep price to pay, but it has to be paid. to give the sox

that little extra to really help in the final end.

 

the sox is still rebuilding and i am still looking at the main core not to be touch except

for 1 piece. that is up to Hahn and his negotiating skills. if that player is to be a rental,

then the sox will have 2 draft picks coming plus their own to continue the rebuilding.

 

that price has to be paid.

Edited January 22, 2015 by LDF

[GreenSox]

 

No

We need our young players. The world doesn't end in 2015.

the virtues of renting Shark are dubious enough.

The love for the 2008-2013 model is beyond belief.

Edited January 22, 2015 by GreenSox

[LDF]

No

We need our young players. The world doesn't end in 2015.

the virtues of renting Shark are dubious enough.

The love for the 2008-2013 model is beyond belief.

 

here is a friendly question. if that final piece of the missing puzzle

is a prospect |s| being moved, you rather fore go a trip to the

playoff, b/c you value the prospects more??

[Eminor3rd]

here is a friendly question. if that final piece of the missing puzzle

is a prospect |s| being moved, you rather fore go a trip to the

playoff, b/c you value the prospects more??

 

I don't think there'll ever be a black and white answer to that question. You don't "want" prospects or veterans, you "want" wins. And depending upon who the prospect is, who the veteran is, what the present looks like, what the future looks like, etc., you make the call with the largest overall impact.

[LDF]

I don't think there'll ever be a black and white answer to that question. You don't "want" prospects or veterans, you "want" wins. And depending upon who the prospect is, who the veteran is, what the present looks like, what the future looks like, etc., you make the call with the largest overall impact.

 

 

wow, a very good answer.

 

and that is the point. the sox need 1 sp to really help the unasked questions

of what if.

 

i don't want to waste the resources to make a trade, b/c you can. pretty

much as KW did in his tenure.

 

plus the farm is now turning around, or i should say it appears to have the

right philosophy of improving the system. but if the team in lacking 1 part,

then maybe trade one of the assets.