Avisail Garcia

[caulfield12]

there's something to be said for the "intangibles" that come through when a guy works his ass off after a pretty serious shoulder injury to get back on the field with his teammates well before expected, even when that team is not competing for the post season. I like this kid a lot. The second coming of Mags but only better, IMO.

 

 

We can only hope. Personally, I'm not setting the bar so high. That's his "everything goes according to plan" ceiling IMO.

[Balta1701]

Viciedo never dominated the minors the way Avi did the last year and a half. For every DV there's also a C. Lee. I am betting on a .290-20-80 2 WAR season.

Year and a half? The 2nd half of 2012 he put up a .810 OPS in AA. He tore up AAA in 2013 as a 22 year old with a .991 OPS over ~1/2 a season. As a 22 year old Viciedo put up an .850 OPS in AAA, but he also had a broken hand in spring training and lost some time that year/had impacts from that as well.

[Rowand44]

there's something to be said for the "intangibles" that come through when a guy works his ass off after a pretty serious shoulder injury to get back on the field with his teammates well before expected, even when that team is not competing for the post season. I like this kid a lot. The second coming of Mags but only better, IMO.

Those are some lofty expectations. Maggs was pretty damn awesome.

[southsider2k5]

Those are some lofty expectations. Maggs was pretty damn awesome.

 

I have seen the comp before and I like the idea behind it. I don't think he will ever get to that power level, as I think there was a little extra involved there, but I like that gap to gap power, and swing type as a comp. Maybe more like 25 to 30 homer power, but a solid all around hitter, with a good amount of doubles.

[southsider2k5]

Speaking of the Magglio comp. If you take the three pieces of major league seasons for Avi you get 141 games and 497 PA's

 

Garcia slashes at .272/.314/.408/.722 with 14 HR and 63 RBI. It worked out to a 98 OPS+

 

Maggs first full year was 145 games and 578 PAs for

 

.282/.326/.415/.741 and 14 Hrs and 65 RBI and a 94 OPS+

 

Garcia is now 23, Maggs was 24 for his first full season.

[caulfield12]

Of course, an 858 OPS (sophomore season) was Magglio's lowest for the next five years.

 

And he was consistently over 900 OPS-wise in the prime of his Sox career.

 

.301, 30 homers and 117 RBI's that season. Is anyone honestly EXPECTING that type of performance, THIS season, out of Avisail Garcia?

Edited January 22, 2015 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

He can take any ball to right field and seems to like doing it. Pull power homers will eventually come. Thanks, Nostradamus.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Year and a half? The 2nd half of 2012 he put up a .810 OPS in AA. He tore up AAA in 2013 as a 22 year old with a .991 OPS over ~1/2 a season. As a 22 year old Viciedo put up an .850 OPS in AAA, but he also had a broken hand in spring training and lost some time that year/had impacts from that as well.

 

If you want to say "technically" he didn't have a year and a half year worth of plate appearances, sure. But point is Viciedo never put together a stretch like Avi did in the minors. That's without getting into the Viciedo's poor instincts and stubbornness as a hitter.

[Balta1701]

If you want to say "technically" he didn't have a year and a half year worth of plate appearances, sure. But point is Viciedo never put together a stretch like Avi did in the minors. That's without getting into the Viciedo's poor instincts and stubbornness as a hitter.

But Garcia also never had to deal with losing a substantial part of an important developmental season...until last year. So let's see how that goes.

[lvjeremylv]

Viciedo never dominated the minors the way Avi did the last year and a half. For every DV there's also a C. Lee. I am betting on a .290-20-80 2 WAR season.

I don't know much about WAR, but you're suggesting that .290, 20, and 80, would only result in a WAR of 2?

[greg775]

I like Avi, but weren't their reports Detroit wasn't sold on him at all and more than willing to give him up? We'll see what happens. Isn't his upside the "good" Carlos Quinton and downside the bad Alex Rios?

[thxfrthmmrs]

I don't know much about WAR, but you're suggesting that .290, 20, and 80, would only result in a WAR of 2?

 

WAR is both park and position adjusted, so playing RF at US Cellular makes that stat line less valuable than say playing SS at Safeco. It also takes into account other aspects of the game - base running and defense. Avi has provided negative value in both areas in his 2 brief seasons. If he makes improvement with his glove, which isn't out of the equation, I could see a slightly higher WAR. FWIW, 2 WAR is basically a league average player.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

First, disappointment that Hahn didn't sign another piece and now this. Already setting up scapegoats for the upcoming season when it goes bad. Despite what we all think we know about baseball even scouts can't tell who will be good and who will be bad most of the time. So yes I like Avi because he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA.

 

He's got flaws like every player so can I just look forward to the optimism of spring without all this negative Sox fan crappola ? I know optimism is kind of equated with blind faith and surely anyone smarter will dig deeper and find reasons anyone can fail. So optimism equals idiocy and negativity equals brainiac .I will now take my happy pills and imagine every young Sox player has a chance to be very helpful to the team.

[LDF]

First, disappointment that Hahn didn't sign another piece and now this. Already setting up scapegoats for the upcoming season when it goes bad. Despite what we all think we know about baseball even scouts can't tell who will be good and who will be bad most of the time. So yes I like Avi because he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA.

 

He's got flaws like every player so can I just look forward to the optimism of spring without all this negative Sox fan crappola ? I know optimism is kind of equated with blind faith and surely anyone smarter will dig deeper and find reasons anyone can fail. So optimism equals idiocy and negativity equals brainiac .I will now take my happy pills and imagine every young Sox player has a chance to be very helpful to the team.

 

wow, you and i know we had some problems looking at things differently. but this,

in my opinion has to be the best post you have ever written. this is as far as my

memory will allow to remember.

 

 

[MEANS]

First, disappointment that Hahn didn't sign another piece and now this. Already setting up scapegoats for the upcoming season when it goes bad. Despite what we all think we know about baseball even scouts can't tell who will be good and who will be bad most of the time. So yes I like Avi because he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA.

 

He's got flaws like every player so can I just look forward to the optimism of spring without all this negative Sox fan crappola ? I know optimism is kind of equated with blind faith and surely anyone smarter will dig deeper and find reasons anyone can fail. So optimism equals idiocy and negativity equals brainiac .I will now take my happy pills and imagine every young Sox player has a chance to be very helpful to the team.

 

 

thank you, I agree with this, it's like everyday there's a new thread of doom and gloom about this team, we've just had two of the best off-seasons in recent history, we've jumped started the much needed re-build, stayed young, and kept our top prospects. Let's sit back and enjoy some baseball when it starts and not stress ourselves out so much.

[Eminor3rd]

First, disappointment that Hahn didn't sign another piece and now this. Already setting up scapegoats for the upcoming season when it goes bad. Despite what we all think we know about baseball even scouts can't tell who will be good and who will be bad most of the time. So yes I like Avi because he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA.

 

He's got flaws like every player so can I just look forward to the optimism of spring without all this negative Sox fan crappola ? I know optimism is kind of equated with blind faith and surely anyone smarter will dig deeper and find reasons anyone can fail. So optimism equals idiocy and negativity equals brainiac .I will now take my happy pills and imagine every young Sox player has a chance to be very helpful to the team.

 

I don't think this is fair at all. Firstly, are we supposed to avoid discussing anything that isn't overwhelmingly positive? Negativity doesn't "equal brainiac," but objective does equal "reality," and we're fans that want to talk about Sox as they actually are. Secondly, there's much more to it than "he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA." There are specific types of flaws we've seen in players that have correlated to high bust rates and many of them are present in Avisail Garcia. No one is saying that he's hopeless, but there's a huge level of risk with him and it's coming in a year where the Sox have no replacement at all. We're depending on him taking a huge step forward next year to contribute to success needed to justify the acquisitions and risks that have been taken elsewhere on the roster.

 

I don't mean this next question to sound as harsh as it reads -- it's more a rhetorical question -- but if you don't want to think about it and just want to go into the season hoping instead of knowing what you might expect, what are you doing on a message board?

Edited January 22, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[LDF]

thank you, I agree with this, it's like everyday there's a new thread of doom and gloom about this team, we've just had two of the best off-seasons in recent history, we've jumped started the much needed re-build, stayed young, and kept our top prospects. Let's sit back and enjoy some baseball when it starts and not stress ourselves out so much.

 

but the point is, this is the best time to really get this team to the

playoff and further.

 

why then did they made this commitment of getting fa's, making

the trade for Jeff S, just to pull back and do a wait and see???

 

the job is yet to be completed.

[LDF]

I don't think this is fair at all. Firstly, are we supposed to avoid discussing anything that isn't overwhelmingly positive? Negativity doesn't "equal brainiac," but objective does equal "reality," and we're fans that want to talk about Sox as they actually are. Secondly, there's much more to it than "he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA." There are specific types of flaws we've seen in players that have correlated to high bust rates and many of them are present in Avisail Garcia. No one is saying that he's hopeless, but there's a huge level of risk with him and it's coming in a year where the Sox have no replacement at all. We're depending on him taking a huge step forward next year to contribute to success needed to justify the acquisitions and risks that have been taken elsewhere on the roster.

 

I don't mean this next question to sound as harsh as it reads -- it's more a rhetorical question -- but if you don't want to think about it and just want to go into the season hoping instead of knowing what you might expect, what are you doing on a message board?

 

very good response.

 

first i am not skilled enuf to be able to tell about his overall skills, i need to

leave this to you guys.

 

next, you are right, we have no backup and getting Bonifacio was and is

essential. but that is 1 person as a major backup to several positions. lets

hope the sox do not have more than 1 positional player hurs.

 

lastly and i keep saying it. maybe it is not a nice way of saying this, JR and

company are hoping to pull the wool over our eyes. pretty much as they

did in the 90's/ to give up a little hope and then let the hype of the fans

gloss over the shortcomings. well i just hope we as fans are smart to this

way of covering up.

 

this is another statement i have always said about sox fans. we are workers

who work hard for their family. we need to see equal or greater improvement

in order for us to spend our hard earned money. we as fans demand more

from the sox owners, and when it is there, we will support it. not blindly like the

northsiders on simple lip service.

[southsider2k5]

I think it's kind of lazy to be honest. If Magglio played in the NL East his whole career that comp would never be made.

 

I think Juan Encarnacion is the best comp I can come up with.

 

His swing and his approach are very similar, as is his body type.

[shysocks]

There's no doom and gloom in this thread - seems like pretty honest discussion from my PoV. The OP brought up a good topic of conversation during a slow part of the offseason and we all talked about it. What's the problem?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I don't think this is fair at all. Firstly, are we supposed to avoid discussing anything that isn't overwhelmingly positive? Negativity doesn't "equal brainiac," but objective does equal "reality," and we're fans that want to talk about Sox as they actually are. Secondly, there's much more to it than "he's strong young and fast and tore up AAA." There are specific types of flaws we've seen in players that have correlated to high bust rates and many of them are present in Avisail Garcia. No one is saying that he's hopeless, but there's a huge level of risk with him and it's coming in a year where the Sox have no replacement at all. We're depending on him taking a huge step forward next year to contribute to success needed to justify the acquisitions and risks that have been taken elsewhere on the roster.

 

I don't mean this next question to sound as harsh as it reads -- it's more a rhetorical question -- but if you don't want to think about it and just want to go into the season hoping instead of knowing what you might expect, what are you doing on a message board?

Who said I wanted to be fair ? Opinions don't have to be fair . You got yours I got mine . If I was all that bothered by negativity I would've been gone long ago. I personally believe Avi wil turn out to be a pretty good player regardless of the flaws that are there. I am counting on him to makes strides mentally, defensivey and offensively . That's the great thing about youth , they can get much better or those flaws will eat them alive. It's the same with all of them , keep up or move aside.

 

I don't see any threads that say "I'm drinking the Kool-aid " so I'm pretty used to the "biting nails" aspect of fandom. The good thing about getting old is that things get put in their proper perspective without all the youthful "gnashing of teeth" . Gnash away one and all but once in a while you'll get chided for it .

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

Who said I wanted to be fair ? Opinions don't have to be fair . You got yours I got mine . If I was all that bothered by negativity I would've been gone long ago. I personally believe Avi wil turn out to be a pretty good player regardless of the flaws that are there. I am counting on him to makes strides mentally, defensivey and offensively . That's the great thing about youth , they can get much better or those flaws will eat them alive. It's the same with all of them , keep up or move aside.

 

I don't see any threads that say "I'm drinking the Kool-aid " so I'm pretty used to the "biting nails" aspect of fandom. The good thing about getting old is that things get put in their proper perspective without all the youthful "gnashing of teeth" . Gnash away one and all but once in a while you'll get chided for it .

 

My response has nothing to do with your opinion on Avi though -- your post is essentially telling people to stop posting if they disagree with what you're saying. You're original post was literally discouraging the expression of a dissenting opinion, it wasn't expressing your own opinion.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

My response has nothing to do with your opinion on Avi though -- your post is essentially telling people to stop posting if they disagree with what you're saying. You're original post was literally discouraging the expression of a dissenting opinion, it wasn't expressing your own opinion.

I suppose it was saying there's way too much negative stuff considering the awesome off season but that's how I feel so it is my opinion. I could literally say I don't want to see any negative stuff and that wouldn't effect how people post one bit. I expect all that stuff and without it I wouldn't have anyone to hassle . Doesn't phase me in the least that I know how you feel about Avi because you've literally said it 10 times if you've said it once just as you know I think he's hugely talented. Without your ying I have no yang. Better ? Carry on.

Edited January 23, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[SJB23]

The Avi thing has completely changed now. This is a below average fielder based on metrics (awful routes to balls....hideous-to-awful, roughly), and he's not an on-base guy. The positives are only the power potential and that ability to take the second base w/ his speed.

 

This was all absolutely great to plug into RF before the recent acquisitions. But we're now win-now. What is frightening is that this goes from being a positive situation (we know how mercurial this board can be)........to becoming a scapegoat thing if next year falls short of expectations.

 

2015 expectations will be high, no matter what we tell ourselves. Conor or Avi are prime candidates for becoming the soxtalk whipping boy if things aren't going wonderfully.

 

The hope you hold onto with Avi is that he's been young at each stage of the MLB/MiLB development. Sadly last year was really important. Something salvaged at the end. But to have our win-now track means expectations for AG are sky high now. Pressure is up and that's what the gig is, of course. But it's twofold now.

 

Agreed!

[Eminor3rd]

I suppose it was saying there's way too much negative stuff considering the awesome off season but that's how I feel so it is my opinion. I could literally say I don't want to see any negative stuff and that wouldn't effect how people post one bit. I expect all that stuff and without it I wouldn't have anyone to hassle . Doesn't phase me in the least that I know how you feel about Avi because you've literally said it 10 times if you've said it once just as you know I think he's hugely talented. Without your ying I have no yang. Better ? Carry on.

 

Yep, better. Haha