Keith Law's farm system rankings

[LDF]

Law's Top 100 should be released today. I'll predict 4 White Sox: Rodon in the teens, Anderson in the 30's, Montas in the 70's and Micah Johnson in the 90's.

 

we should have a friendly survey on who is #4 ...

 

i say Adams..

[GGajewski18]

Law's top 10 list just came out.

 

Can anybody post what the thinks about the Sox?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Law's top 10 list just came out.

 

Can anybody post what the thinks about the Sox?

 

- Montas just missed his top 100. Said he'll either be a 220 inning beast, Aroldis Chapman or flame out due to lack of control and/or knee issues.

- Micah Johnson will be a top 100 next year if he still qualifies.

- Rondon is #11 and he rates his defense a true 80

- Adolfo is his sleeper, says he has a 70 arm and 60 raw power right now. 30+ HR potential down the line

- Likes what Hahn has done with the system, best he's seen it since he's been rating them.

- Still thinks Courtney Hawkins (#10) can turn it around if he stops trying to hit everything 500 feet

- Believes Danish is probably going to end up in the bullpen due to his arm slot

- Pretty positive article overall

[Reddy]

- Montas just missed his top 100. Said he'll either be a 220 inning beast, Aroldis Chapman or flame out due to lack of control and/or knee issues.

- Micah Johnson will be a top 100 next year if he still qualifies.

- Rondon is #11 and he rates his defense a true 80

- Adolfo is his sleeper, says he has a 70 arm and 60 raw power right now. 30+ HR potential down the line

- Likes what Hahn has done with the system, best he's seen it since he's been rating them.

- Still thinks Courtney Hawkins (#10) can turn it around if he stops trying to hit everything 500 feet

- Believes Danish is probably going to end up in the bullpen due to his arm slot

- Pretty positive article overall

KEITH LAW HATES THE WHITE SOX!

 

It's so refreshing to hear analysts actually... like our farm system.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm a subscriber to BA and BP, but not Law/ESPN, so... if anyone happens to be able to see just the names/order of the T10, I'd appreciate it! No need to clip in anything beyond that, don't want to get into any trouble.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

- Montas just missed his top 100. Said he'll either be a 220 inning beast, Aroldis Chapman or flame out due to lack of control and/or knee issues.

- Micah Johnson will be a top 100 next year if he still qualifies.

- Rondon is #11 and he rates his defense a true 80

- Adolfo is his sleeper, says he has a 70 arm and 60 raw power right now. 30+ HR potential down the line

- Likes what Hahn has done with the system, best he's seen it since he's been rating them.

- Still thinks Courtney Hawkins (#10) can turn it around if he stops trying to hit everything 500 feet

- Believes Danish is probably going to end up in the bullpen due to his arm slot

- Pretty positive article overall

 

If he actually watched Hawkins (there is a lot of video), I think he'd know that in 2014, that was definitely not his problem. If anything he may have dialed it down too much in terms of bat speed. His issue is with pitch recognition and adjustment.

 

[witesoxfan]

The last time Keith Law thought a Sox pitcher was going to be a reliever, Chris Sale became one of the best pitchers in the league. Can't wait for Danish to do the same

[NorthSideSox72]

The last time Keith Law thought a Sox pitcher was going to be a reliever, Chris Sale became one of the best pitchers in the league. Can't wait for Danish to do the same

And to Law's credit, I recall him tweeting this past season (maybe during All Star Game? Can't recall) something like "told you Sale was a reliever". At least he can poke a little fun at himself.

 

[ILMOU]

The last time Keith Law thought a Sox pitcher was going to be a reliever, Chris Sale became one of the best pitchers in the league. Can't wait for Danish to do the same

And he likely thinks CJ Edwards is a TOR starter (haven't checked), while being held to 50 pitch counts as a 22 year old, meanwhile Tyler's throwing 90 pitches at 19y.o. with no issues. And still with the armslot thing - hope not too many of us are actually paying for Mr. Law's wisdom.

 

And not super-informed on Hawkins, either.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I'm a subscriber to BA and BP, but not Law/ESPN, so... if anyone happens to be able to see just the names/order of the T10, I'd appreciate it! No need to clip in anything beyond that, don't want to get into any trouble.

 

Rodon

Anderson

Adams

Montas

Johnson

Davidson

Michalczewski

Danish

Adolfo

Hawkins

 

Rondon

Sanchez

Beck

Sanburn

Thompson

 

If he actually watched Hawkins (there is a lot of video), I think he'd know that in 2014, that was definitely not his problem. If anything he may have dialed it down too much in terms of bat speed. His issue is with pitch recognition and adjustment.

 

He said he can do it because he witnessed it with RISP. But he said when he isn't bearing down like that "he'll cut through fastballs up and chase breaking balls down until the sun swallows the earth."

[Y2Jimmy0]

Rodon

Anderson

Adams

Montas

Johnson

Davidson

Michalczewski

Danish

Adolfo

Hawkins

 

Rondon

Sanchez

Beck

Sanburn

Thompson

 

 

 

He said he can do it because he witnessed it with RISP. But he said when he isn't bearing down like that "he'll cut through fastballs up and chase breaking balls down until the sun swallows the earth."

 

 

Law also mentioned that he sees Sanburn and Beck as setup guys and is interested in seeing Adam Lopez in a full season healthy. I can DM the full article if anyone wants it.

[Y2Jimmy0]

And he likely thinks CJ Edwards is a TOR starter (haven't checked), while being held to 50 pitch counts as a 22 year old, meanwhile Tyler's throwing 90 pitches at 19y.o. with no issues. And still with the armslot thing - hope not too many of us are actually paying for Mr. Law's wisdom.

 

And not super-informed on Hawkins, either.

 

 

Actually, Law think CJ Edwards is a bullpen guy because he's to small and frail to start.

[Y2Jimmy0]

And he likely thinks CJ Edwards is a TOR starter (haven't checked), while being held to 50 pitch counts as a 22 year old, meanwhile Tyler's throwing 90 pitches at 19y.o. with no issues. And still with the armslot thing - hope not too many of us are actually paying for Mr. Law's wisdom.

 

And not super-informed on Hawkins, either.

 

 

Keith Laws also is far from the only scout that thinks Danish is a reliever.

[NorthSideSox72]

Rodon

Anderson

Adams

Montas

Johnson

Davidson

Michalczewski

Danish

Adolfo

Hawkins

 

Rondon

Sanchez

Beck

Sanburn

Thompson

 

He said he can do it because he witnessed it with RISP. But he said when he isn't bearing down like that "he'll cut through fastballs up and chase breaking balls down until the sun swallows the earth."

Davidson 6th? Seems very high to me, for him at this point.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Davidson 6th? Seems very high to me, for him at this point.

 

 

I thought so too. He's always liked Davidson and still thinks that he can be a starting 3B or bench bat because of the power.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Davidson 6th? Seems very high to me, for him at this point.

 

He basically said he's not worried about Davidson because it was first time we've seen something like that from him. Still thinks he will (could be) a starting 3B in MLB

[LDF]

He basically said he's not worried about Davidson because it was first time we've seen something like that from him. Still thinks he will (could be) a starting 3B in MLB

 

right there is why i sometimes have a hard time understanding these list. but that is one person opinions and the world will not come to end.

 

 

[ILMOU]

Keith Laws also is far from the only scout that thinks Danish is a reliever.

Yes, of course. It breaks down like this:

 

If you are a scout that originally thought a pitcher, any pitcher, is destined to be a reliever, you will hold that thought until the pitcher proves you wrong by becoming a 5 WAR SP in MLB. Can't be wishy-washy, gotta show conviction. It's just the way it is. Thinking 21 players were better than Trout or several hundred were better than Pujols will make a guy defensive. Scouts generally don't admit being wrong until proven absolutely, unequivocably wrong. Some of these guys are still waiting on the big breakout from Cameron Maybin. (slight hyperbole) Law's self-deprecating humor about Sale doesn't deserve praise - it's way damn late. Had he admitted in 2012 that he may have been all wrong, now THAT would be refreshing.

 

Now, in this case, the evidence to this point shows no issues with Tyler becoming a starter. He's WAY ahead of the game in pitches/innings for his age at level, and has had no reported issues, and at the end of his season, was finishing his outings most strongly. Has at least 3 pitches. Excellent swing-and-miss rates, on multiple pitches, from a groundballer.

 

But the armslot worries many, granted, some worry about the radar gun, and he has a few key levels to climb, so there are doubts, as with any prospect. He just won't get ANY of the benefit of the doubt, that the prospects these guys have loved all along get routinely, despite age/level/results that don't compare.

 

There's a lot of old-school thought that a guy like Chris Sale can go a long way to dispel. Low(er) slot guys like Hudson, Peavy etc. have had incredible careers, recently, and Sale is well on his way.

 

The White Sox didn't take TD at 44 thinking he'd be a reliever. Laumann didn't lobby for picking him in the 1st round, instead of Anderson, had they been worried that someone else would take Tyler earlier, because he thought he was a reliever. And also, again, Kodi Medeiros (a lefty Danish, more or less) went 12th in the draft to the Brewers. Do you think they draft him that high if they think he's destined to relieve? Do you think that when they undoubtedly asked the Brewers' versions of Herm Schneider/Coop about drafting him, they told Melvin he was nuts, but he drafted him anyway? Doubt it. Schools of thought change over time. Anecdotal evidence exists that this is such a case, starting with the Condor.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[witesoxfan]

Stan, I think this is where these minor league rankings become a bit overrated. Guys who are very good prospects like Tyler Danish tend to fall by the wayside because of preconceived biases. At the same time, these scouts have also been around a long time and can see weaknesses in motions and deliveries and have reasons for their beliefs.

 

When a guy is 20 years old and we are viewing him as a guy who certainly should be a good reliever at the MLB level, you have a good prospect. If he ultimately ends up as a reliever, that's OK. In the mean time, he will continue starting. If he can ultimately be a #3 starter at the MLB level, you have yourself a damn fine pitcher.

[ILMOU]

Stan, I think this is where these minor league rankings become a bit overrated. Guys who are very good prospects like Tyler Danish tend to fall by the wayside because of preconceived biases. At the same time, these scouts have also been around a long time and can see weaknesses in motions and deliveries and have reasons for their beliefs.

 

When a guy is 20 years old and we are viewing him as a guy who certainly should be a good reliever at the MLB level, you have a good prospect. If he ultimately ends up as a reliever, that's OK. In the mean time, he will continue starting. If he can ultimately be a #3 starter at the MLB level, you have yourself a damn fine pitcher.

 

Well, you're right, of course. But to summarize the overall intent of my previous post, opinions vary widely among experts, and I can guarantee you that the org. has huge belief in the kid's abilities - not letting any pre-conceived ceiling ideas cloud their thought.

 

But I'll do it anyway:

 

Tim Hudson stuff with near Buehrlesque runner-holding and D. That guy would be GOOD.

 

What can I say, smitten with the kid's makeup, backstory, mind for pitching and talent.

 

[southsider2k5]

Stan, I think this is where these minor league rankings become a bit overrated. Guys who are very good prospects like Tyler Danish tend to fall by the wayside because of preconceived biases. At the same time, these scouts have also been around a long time and can see weaknesses in motions and deliveries and have reasons for their beliefs.

 

When a guy is 20 years old and we are viewing him as a guy who certainly should be a good reliever at the MLB level, you have a good prospect. If he ultimately ends up as a reliever, that's OK. In the mean time, he will continue starting. If he can ultimately be a #3 starter at the MLB level, you have yourself a damn fine pitcher.

 

There are many cases in baseball where something odds as a pitcher is what makes you good. Take a Jake Peavy for example.

[witesoxfan]

Well, you're right, of course. But to summarize the overall intent of my previous post, opinions vary widely among experts, and I can guarantee you that the org. has huge belief in the kid's abilities - not letting any pre-conceived ceiling ideas cloud their thought.

 

But I'll do it anyway:

 

Tim Hudson stuff with near Buehrlesque runner-holding and D. That guy would be GOOD.

 

What can I say, smitten with the kid's makeup, backstory, mind for pitching and talent.

 

Tim Hudson is really one of the best pitchers of our era. He may not be a hall of famer, but he's going to get a lot of votes. At his best, he was a low to kid 90s guy with great sinking stuff and the ability to strike you out. He's lost some of that over the years but he's an incredible pitcher. If Tyler Danish has half the career Tim Hudson has had, we'll be ok.

 

There are many cases in baseball where something odds as a pitcher is what makes you good. Take a Jake Peavy for example.

 

Jake Peavy? He has kind of a funky motion, but the dude had incredible stuff. That's what helped him.

 

The pitcher that comes to mind when I think "something odd about him" is Paul Byrd with his antiquated wind-up towards the end of his career. I also seem to recall something about PEDs about him too.

 

Tyler Danish isn't odd, and a 3/4 or sidearm delivery isn't odd, but they have their advantages and disadvantages. If that changeup turns to good (meaning good velocity differentiation, good downward movement, good control, and good command), he's going to be a starting pitcher.

[witesoxfan]

Since we're talking about him, here's Kylie McDaniels' breakdown

 

5. Tyler Danish, RHP

Current Level/Age: Hi-A/20.2, 6’0/205, R/R

Drafted: 55th overall (2nd round) in 2013 out of Florida HS by CHW for $1.001 million bonus

Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+

 

Scouting Report: I scouted Danish a lot in 2013 as we were both based in Tampa and I had a hard time getting past his smallish frame, low arm slot, high pitch counts and borderline grisly arm action (it looks much worse in super slo-mo). I put a 3rd-4th round grade on him and figured he’d go to school unless a team closed their eyes until he released the ball, but it turned out that multiple teams had him in the 2nd round. It shouldn’t have surprised me that the team that took a chance on the other guy that has confounded mechanics experts (LHP Chris Sale) would take a shot on Danish.

 

Danish’s velocity will vary depending on the day, but he’s mostly 88-92 mph and will hit a tick higher at times with plus-plus life created from his low slot and extension. He’s very aggressive and spots the pitch very well along with his above average two-plane slider, which will flash plus every now and then and may play up in short stints. Danish has developed a changeup since signing that’s above average at times, again due to the life he can put on the ball from his low slot.

 

He’ll have trouble getting around the ball at times, leaving pitches up when this happens. Danish is a true bulldog and gets hitters out when he’s only pitching at 87-90 mph. In a big matchup in high school, I watched Danish strike out the side in the first, then lead off the next inning, spot the third baseman standing too far back, try to bunt for a hit, then dive headfirst into first base. Along with Sale and Rodon, I’ve given up trying to figure out whose mechanics and history will undermine their future and look more at the makeup/competitiveness and current ability, with the White Sox looking like they’ll go 3 for 3 on these cases.

 

Summation: If they want to rush him, Danish could be a big league bullpen piece late in 2015, but he’ll likely spend most of the year as a starter in Double-A. I had multiple scouts asking me all year if I was going to reverse course on Danish, because he’s their favorite guy currently in the minors and you don’t want to bet against this guy. Danish may just end up a good setup guy, but he’s got a rubber arm, a mean streak and a crazy ability to manipulate the ball, so I’ve given up trying to fight it. I believe in Tyler Danish.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Late Setup, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/

 

Video attached.

 

I think a lot of his future is tied to Samardzija, Rodon, and Montas. I can explain later, but right now I'm a bit tuned up and playing Destiny, but wanted to provide this. I feel that he is going to pitch in the majors and he is going to be good, but there are others with more natural talent who will be ahead of him who will get chances at starting first. If he ends up as a set up guy, that's not a bad thing.

[LDF]

Since we're talking about him, here's Kylie McDaniels' breakdown

 

Video attached.

 

I think a lot of his future is tied to Samardzija, Rodon, and Montas. I can explain later, but right now I'm a bit tuned up and playing Destiny, but wanted to provide this. I feel that he is going to pitch in the majors and he is going to be good, but there are others with more natural talent who will be ahead of him who will get chances at starting first. If he ends up as a set up guy, that's not a bad thing.

 

i think his makeup, his bulldog mentality, reminds me of Mark Burhle.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Today, Law released his 10 that just missed the cut. Here is what he said about Francelis Montas: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pectsJustMissed

 

Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox

When I saw him in the Arizona Fall League, I thought for sure he'd make the list, but the list of factors working against him was too long. He has an 80 fastball, hitting 102 mph in instructs, but his command and secondary stuff aren't average yet, and he's already had two knee surgeries, possibly related to his girth. He might be a No. 1 starter, but there's a greater chance that he ends up a reliever, with all kinds of possibilities in between.