Keith Law's farm system rankings

[ILMOU]

Tim Hudson is really one of the best pitchers of our era. He may not be a hall of famer, but he's going to get a lot of votes. At his best, he was a low to kid 90s guy with great sinking stuff and the ability to strike you out. He's lost some of that over the years but he's an incredible pitcher. If Tyler Danish has half the career Tim Hudson has had, we'll be ok.

 

 

 

Jake Peavy? He has kind of a funky motion, but the dude had incredible stuff. That's what helped him.

 

The pitcher that comes to mind when I think "something odd about him" is Paul Byrd with his antiquated wind-up towards the end of his career. I also seem to recall something about PEDs about him too.

 

Tyler Danish isn't odd, and a 3/4 or sidearm delivery isn't odd, but they have their advantages and disadvantages. If that changeup turns to good (meaning good velocity differentiation, good downward movement, good control, and good command), he's going to be a starting pitcher.

Agree with most of what you're saying here, but his super-quick delivery IS odd, and goes a long way to making him unusually good in runner holding among RHP (which dovetails nicely with a guy whose hit-allowed mix skews heavily toward singles), and nearly eliminates the bunt-for-a-hit. Also finishes very square to the batter, ala MB56. The Hudson comp is my everything-goes-right ceiling for his stuff. Like Huddy and 56, he will virtually always outpitch his FIP, and to cut it off before it starts, FIP shouldn't even be associated with TD's performance - it's right there on the first page of the FIP manual that the stat is unlikely to apply well to extreme GBers.

 

There are, however, plenty of advanced data that can be viewed at places like MLB Farm and Stat Corner that will tell you how good the kid can be. I'll share a few breakdowns and comparisons with the top pitching prospects in the game: the Giolitos, Syndergaards, Glasnows and Grays of the world, when I get some time.

 

My sentiments are much like McDaniels', BTW. I BELIEVE and also WANT to believe. In the article video, the pitch he K's the first guy with is flat filthy - likely the slider. He's the youngest guy in camp, and by a good margin - I'm not alone.

 

And I should note that the "smallish frame" is a 2013 thing. He's 6', 205lb, built a lot like Roy Oswalt. Never was 6' 2" as was listed early and still is some places, but he's definitely added real muscle since the early reports. And I'm not too sure about McDaniels' "high-pitch-count" reference - perhaps he thought the org was pushing an 18y.o. a bit much? TD is among the most efficient of ANY pitching prospects, in terms of pitches per out or outs per pitch.

 

Today, Law released his 10 that just missed the cut. Here is what he said about Francelis Montas: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pectsJustMissed

 

Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox

When I saw him in the Arizona Fall League, I thought for sure he'd make the list, but the list of factors working against him was too long. He has an 80 fastball, hitting 102 mph in instructs, but his command and secondary stuff aren't average yet, and he's already had two knee surgeries, possibly related to his girth. He might be a No. 1 starter, but there's a greater chance that he ends up a reliever, with all kinds of possibilities in between.

 

Well, the slider is far from below-average, it's just the overall command issues at play. But I agree that he has more to overcome to reach his ceiling than the rest of our 2-6 ranked prospects

Edited January 31, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen