Sox sign Gordon Beckham, designate Viciedo for Assignment

[southsider2k5]

They didn't put this team together just to compete or contend.

 

Anything less than reaching a best-of-5 series would be disappointing.

 

I would be prepared to be disappointed.

[flavum]

I would be prepared to be disappointed.

 

That's nuts. This isn't a rebuilding year. Get over it.

[ILMOU]

It has "competitive" written all over it. Not contender.

 

We have a s***-tastic back end of the rotation and three black holes in the lineup. I also wouldn't be surprised at a high 3's ERA out of Shark.

No, contender is right, not merely competitive. Rotation back-ends are fungible, and the craptastic back end we start the season with is unlikely to resemble what we finish with. Don't get all worried about it just yet.

 

This team can contend with anyone in our league.

 

That's nuts. This isn't a rebuilding year. Get over it.

 

I'm with you, Flav.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[southsider2k5]

That's nuts. This isn't a rebuilding year. Get over it.

 

It is not a rebuilding year, but is also not a division winning roster.

[ILMOU]

It is not a rebuilding year, but is also not a division winning roster.

Just plain silly to make this statement in late Jan., imo. You seem rather certain.

[flavum]

It is not a rebuilding year, but is also not a division winning roster.

 

That's why I said reaching a best-of-5. Sure, they may lose a close division race, but I expect the Sox to have one of the top 5 records in the league, and if they have to play one game--hopefully it's with Sale or Samardzija on the mound and they win it.

[witesoxfan]

What is the difference between being a contender and being competitive? I really don't understand.

[southsider2k5]

Just plain silly to make this statement in late Jan., imo. You seem rather certain.

 

Do you expect there to be more big moves by the White Sox? At this point I feel pretty good about the top of the roster being pretty well set. Maybe we add a guy or two on a spring training invite type of thing, but the Sox roster is basically in the system today. Taking that and comparing it to the rest of the AL and AL Central, I feel this is not a 90 win team, without some breaks. With the catching situation, 2b up in the air, and the back of the rotation being scary at best, I am not sure how you can squint hard enough to look at this team as a sure fire playoff team.

[ILMOU]

What is the difference between being a contender and being competitive? I really don't understand.

Competitive is White Sox 2010, 2012. Contender is 2014 Royals. That's how I view it, and the margins aren't huge.

[Balta1701]

It is not a rebuilding year, but is also not a division winning roster.

Then trading for a starting pitcher 1 year away from FA and blowing all of our FA spending money this year ($110 million already on the books next year counting Alexei's option) was really silly.

[Whisox05]

It has "competitive" written all over it. Not contender.

 

We have a s***-tastic back end of the rotation and three black holes in the lineup. I also wouldn't be surprised at a high 3's ERA out of Shark.

 

Hardly many teams have great back end of rotations. I wouldn't say our back end is s*** tastic. Danks should at minimum he can be a inning eater. Plus cooper has been working with noesi and danks this offseason to be better. These were during sox fest.

 

Coop wants 33 starts 200 innings from Danks. Cut down on walks and home runs.

https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/559404161968898048

 

Coop on Noesi: I've got plans for this guy to nail down that spot.

https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/559402418958774272

 

Merkin said in his mail bag on the white sox site that cooper has been working with danks on lower arm level and lower leg kick.

[southsider2k5]

That's why I said reaching a best-of-5. Sure, they may lose a close division race, but I expect the Sox to have one of the top 5 records in the league, and if they have to play one game--hopefully it's with Sale or Samardzija on the mound and they win it.

 

I expect this team to be more in the 6 to 8 range. Like I said, 85 wins sounds right me. With some luck, sure they could push into the 88 to 90 range. With some bad luck, they could also push under .500.

[ILMOU]

Do you expect there to be more big moves by the White Sox? At this point I feel pretty good about the top of the roster being pretty well set. Maybe we add a guy or two on a spring training invite type of thing, but the Sox roster is basically in the system today. Taking that and comparing it to the rest of the AL and AL Central, I feel this is not a 90 win team, without some breaks. With the catching situation, 2b up in the air, and the back of the rotation being scary at best, I am not sure how you can squint hard enough to look at this team as a sure fire playoff team.

I think they're a 90 win team as constituted , with a likely better roster by season's end IF we don't fall flat out of the gate. 90 gets you in almost every time - that's a contender.

 

The projections are a joke. Lumping Abreu in with other "sophomores" regression profiles is the first place they go off the rails.

[southsider2k5]

Then trading for a starting pitcher 1 year away from FA and blowing all of our FA spending money this year ($110 million already on the books next year counting Alexei's option) was really silly.

 

The idea has always been to view Samardjiza not as a one year thing.

[Reddy]

Expecting wins in the high 90s is a little crazy, but unless you're the Dodgers or Nationals, expecting to win 90+ games is a little crazy for any team in the majors right now. There are going to be more than two 90 wins teams.

 

Those win totals are almost certainly based on projected WARs for the individual players on the team, and projection systems have been bearish on the current version of the White Sox, and to some extent, there's reason for that. The team isn't particularly deep, there's older talent on the roster, it's not that strong defensively, and there are quite a few players who are at risk of regressing (the two that come to mind are Ramirez and Flowers initially, though you can make a case for a ton of guys).

 

It's a good team though, and you don't have to squint to see how they could be a contender (like you have in previous seasons). The keys for me are:

 

-Avisail Garcia having a good year (2 WAR would be a nice start)

-Adam Eaton stays healthy enough to play 140 games.

-Conor Gillaspie keeps hitting righties well

-SOMEONE forms a viable platoon at 3B with Gillaspie (between Bonifacio, Beckham, and Saladino)

-the bullpen is good

-a legitimate 4th starter steps up

-the Sox get positive production out of 2B and C

 

These are aside from things that we already expect - the top 3 is very good, those guys expected to perform do so and stay healthy, et cetera, et cetera.

 

The error bars on those projected win totals are incredibly large as well. 85 wins would put the Sox right in the thick of things until the end of September, and I'd be perfectly content with that sort of season. They give us some basis of projection, but they shouldn't be taken literally. They just give us the median outcome of what we should expect given the information we have. The information we do not have is the outcomes of the 162 game schedule coming up from April through September.

 

I'd be ecstatic with a 2 WAR out of Avisail

 

[Reddy]

3 black holes? I see 2B and C (with guys who can be non-terrible hitters in house). What's your third?

 

Avi is a huge, huge question mark. He could be great or utter crap.

[southsider2k5]

Hardly many teams have great back end of rotations. I wouldn't say our back end is s*** tastic. Danks should at minimum he can be a inning eater. Plus cooper has been working with noesi and danks this offseason to be better. These were during sox fest.

 

Coop wants 33 starts 200 innings from Danks. Cut down on walks and home runs.

https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/559404161968898048

 

Coop on Noesi: I've got plans for this guy to nail down that spot.

https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/559402418958774272

 

Merkin said in his mail bag on the white sox site that cooper has been working with danks on lower arm level and lower leg kick.

 

I hope it works and all, but Danks hasn't shown many signs of being pre-surgery John Danks. I was optimistic he would come back to form last year, but lost most of that optimism as the season wore on. I feel like the John Danks we used to know is gone.

[Reddy]

I think they're a 90 win team as constituted , with a likely better roster by season's end IF we don't fall flat out of the gate. 90 gets you in almost every time - that's a contender.

 

The projections are a joke. Lumping Abreu in with other "sophomores" regression profiles is the first place they go off the rails.

 

BP loves Abreu. So... there goes that argument.

 

He's likely to regress a LITTLE bit. That's just the way baseball works.

 

They're simply not a 90 win team unless everything goes right, like in '05.

 

Garcia, Gillaspie, Sanchez and Flowers are four HUGE issues (like I said, we don't know what we're gonna get from Avi) and the back end of the rotation is bad. Teams don't just improve 17 wins over a previous season. It doesn't happen except on very, very rare occasions.

 

I also think everyone on this board overvalues Shark. I see him as a high 3s ERA guy, definitely our third best starter. I wouldn't completely be shocked with a very low 4s era in the AL in this park. Also, this is based on a lot of the projection systems out there and his past production.

 

There are too many question marks to assume they'll win 90 games, but I'm still really excited about the season because they'll be competitive all year long, and if they can show they're competitive, they're more likely to keep Shark long term.

[flavum]

I expect this team to be more in the 6 to 8 range. Like I said, 85 wins sounds right me. With some luck, sure they could push into the 88 to 90 range. With some bad luck, they could also push under .500.

 

I like the Sox pitching staff to be the best in the league. If they stay healthy, 90 wins.

 

Bold prediction: Sox score more than 700 runs, and give up fewer than 600 runs. Run diff will be more than +100.

[Rowand44]

BP loves Abreu. So... there goes that argument.

 

He's likely to regress a LITTLE bit. That's just the way baseball works.

 

They're simply not a 90 win team unless everything goes right, like in '05.

 

Garcia, Gillaspie, Sanchez and Flowers are four HUGE issues (like I said, we don't know what we're gonna get from Avi) and the back end of the rotation is bad. Teams don't just improve 17 wins over a previous season. It doesn't happen except on very, very rare occasions.

 

I also think everyone on this board overvalues Shark. I see him as a high 3s ERA guy, definitely our third best starter. I wouldn't completely be shocked with a very low 4s era in the AL in this park. Also, this is based on a lot of the projection systems out there and his past production.

 

There are too many question marks to assume they'll win 90 games, but I'm still really excited about the season because they'll be competitive all year long, and if they can show they're competitive, they're more likely to keep Shark long term.

Why would you want to sign Shark long term if you think he's overvalued?

[ILMOU]

BP loves Abreu. So... there goes that argument.

He's likely to regress a LITTLE bit. That's just the way baseball works.

 

They're simply not a 90 win team unless everything goes right, like in '05.

 

Garcia, Gillaspie, Sanchez and Flowers are four HUGE issues (like I said, we don't know what we're gonna get from Avi) and the back end of the rotation is bad. Teams don't just improve 17 wins over a previous season. It doesn't happen except on very, very rare occasions.

 

I also think everyone on this board overvalues Shark. I see him as a high 3s ERA guy, definitely our third best starter. I wouldn't completely be shocked with a very low 4s era in the AL in this park. Also, this is based on a lot of the projection systems out there and his past production.

 

There are too many question marks to assume they'll win 90 games, but I'm still really excited about the season because they'll be competitive all year long, and if they can show they're competitive, they're more likely to keep Shark long term.

 

Fangraphs and others seems to not, a lot, so no.

 

Let's not pretend to know more than we really do here, folks. Could go any which way, but 90 is nothing close to approaching crazy. Not even a stretch.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Stan Bahnsen

[southsider2k5]

I like the Sox pitching staff to be the best in the league. If they stay healthy, 90 wins.

 

Bold prediction: Sox score more than 700 runs, and give up fewer than 600 runs. Run diff will be more than +100.

 

The Sox have a good, not great, bullpen.

 

They have a great 1-3 and a terrible 4-5 in the rotation.

 

I don't see that as the best by a long shot.

[flavum]

He's on the Score in about 5 minutes. Not sure I even want to listen.

[Reddy]

Fangraphs and others seems to not, a lot, so no.

 

Let's not pretend to know more than we really do here, folks. Could go any which way, but 90 is nothing close to approaching crazy. Not even a stretch.

 

90 wins is absolutely a stretch. EVERY SINGLE PROJECTIONS SYSTEM has the sox in the upper 70s.

[Reddy]

Why would you want to sign Shark long term if you think he's overvalued?

 

Because he's still a very useful piece, and since Sale is so damn cheap right now, it's fine if we waste a little on having someone around who can anchor a rotation and eat innings with a decent era.

 

In my mind, this year sets us up to be a really great team in '16.