Sox sign Gordon Beckham, designate Viciedo for Assignment

[Reddy]

I like the Sox pitching staff to be the best in the league. If they stay healthy, 90 wins.

 

Bold prediction: Sox score more than 700 runs, and give up fewer than 600 runs. Run diff will be more than +100.

 

I want some of what you're smoking.

 

Both in how many runs we score and how many runs we allow. A 5 ERA out of Danks and Noesi is not completely unlikely.

[witesoxfan]

I want some of what you're smoking.

 

Both in how many runs we score and how many runs we allow. A 5 ERA out of Danks and Noesi is not completely unlikely.

 

Nor is a 4.25 ERA. More than likely they'll both be somewhere around 1 WAR pitchers, below average but not absolutely killing you. That's also not including the possibility of calling up guys like Beck or Rodon (or perhaps even Montas).

[Reddy]

Nor is a 4.25 ERA. More than likely they'll both be somewhere around 1 WAR pitchers, below average but not absolutely killing you. That's also not including the possibility of calling up guys like Beck or Rodon (or perhaps even Montas).

I'll admit I'm really excited about Rodon.

[flavum]

I want some of what you're smoking.

 

Both in how many runs we score and how many runs we allow. A 5 ERA out of Danks and Noesi is not completely unlikely.

 

I'm expecting improvement from both Danks and Noesi.

 

Noesi, because he'll be with Coop in spring training where they have more time to work on things.

 

Danks, because he's another year away from surgery. He had 20 quality starts last year, which is fine from a back of the rotation starter. So if he cuts down on the terrible starts, and benefits from a better offense and bullpen, he can still be an asset.

 

A +100 run diff is bold, but realistically 680 RS and 610 RA is more what I expect.

[southsider2k5]

I want some of what you're smoking.

 

Both in how many runs we score and how many runs we allow. A 5 ERA out of Danks and Noesi is not completely unlikely.

 

I would even say that the odds of one of them being over 5.00 is over 50%.

[Rowand44]

The Sox have a good, not great, bullpen.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox have a great bullpen, I also wouldn't be surprised if their pen is completely underwhelming outside of Robertson. If the bullpen is great we easily could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball so who knows.

[southsider2k5]

I'm expecting improvement from both Danks and Noesi.

 

Noesi, because he'll be with Coop in spring training where they have more time to work on things.

 

Danks, because he's another year away from surgery. He had 20 quality starts last year, which is fine from a back of the rotation starter. So if he cuts down on the terrible starts, and benefits from a better offense and bullpen, he can still be an asset.

A +100 run diff is bold, but realistically 680 RS and 610 RA is more what I expect.

 

This gives Pythagorean expectation of almost exactly 90 wins. A 100 run differential projects about 93.5 wins.

[Reddy]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox have a great bullpen, I also wouldn't be surprised if their pen is completely underwhelming outside of Robertson. If the bullpen is great we easily could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball so who knows.

 

but that's the point. if it isn't, then we're really screwed. people are saying that 90 wins is EXPECTED. and it's definitely not expected if the defense, rotation, bullpen, and 3 spots in the lineup are question marks!

[southsider2k5]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox have a great bullpen, I also wouldn't be surprised if their pen is completely underwhelming outside of Robertson. If the bullpen is great we easily could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball so who knows.

 

It could be great, sure... Again if we have some luck.

 

Personally I would bet on some regression from Duke and Jennings coming over from the NL. Odds are also pretty good that someone out there just falls on their face because well, bullpens.

 

I am sure you'll also see a big surprise out there as well.

[ILMOU]

Guys, we're likely, imo, to get at least 100 big league innings from Rodon this season. That's 1/4 of the Danks/Noesi load eliminated.

 

Hahn will act quickly if they both suck early and often.

[Reddy]

Guys, we're likely, imo, to get at least 100 big league innings from Rodon this season. That's 1/4 of the Danks/Noesi load eliminated.

 

Hahn will act quickly if they both suck early and often.

 

100 innings out of Rodon aren't guaranteed to be better than Danks and Noesi either...

 

[caulfield12]

Then trading for a starting pitcher 1 year away from FA and blowing all of our FA spending money this year ($110 million already on the books next year counting Alexei's option) was really silly.

 

 

1) It's very possible that Anderson takes that final leap and takes Alexei's spot for 2016, injecting even more young fire into that line-up. That saves you $10 million and/or gets you another piece if he's dealt.

 

2) The cost of acquiring Samardzija wasn't prohibitive. The cost of signing him long-term might be. This team will be expected to compete, but not at the cost of the 2016-18 window.

 

3) Viciedo and DeAza being off the roster are positive developments for those who believe in accountability (Beckham's another story).

 

4) We had the unique situation with a protected 1st rounder where we could add as many FA's as we did without losing anything more than 2nd and 3rd rounders, so, like the teams going over budget in international spending, we maximized the one year window, as we certainly shouldn't have a protected pick next season.

 

5) Back to point 2, if Rodon/Montas/Beck/Danish turn out as expected, there's not nearly the pressure to keep Shark around.

 

6) With LaRoche at least, we're not stuck with a four year contract like Dunn's...there's still some flexibility or fluidity built into this situation.

 

7) The farm system is starting to improve at just the right time to feed players onto the roster (2-3 per year) and/or trade them for more experienced pieces to put you over the top.

[Balta1701]

The idea has always been to view Samardjiza not as a one year thing.

If this team is not a winning team in 2015, how does it become a winning team in 2016 with the team having to commit $130 million+ to keeping Samardzija?

[ILMOU]

100 innings out of Rodon aren't guaranteed to be better than Danks and Noesi either...

Not guaranteed, what is?, but also likely, imo.

[southsider2k5]

If this team is not a winning team in 2015, how does it become a winning team in 2016 with the team having to commit $130 million+ to keeping Samardzija?

 

You have a lot of young players growing up in that time, plus the addition of the top prospects at various points.

[southsider2k5]

Writer argues that Philly should take a chance on Dayan.

 

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadel...rth-it-phillies

[Reddy]

Not guaranteed, what is?, but also likely, imo.

 

Rodon was walking 6 guys per 9 innings at AAA to end the season. Striking out 14, yes, but that sounds a lot like Daniel Cabrera.

 

I'm excited about Rodon, I really am, but to expect everyone we draft to be Chris Sale is... you know...

[Balta1701]

You have a lot of young players growing up in that time, plus the addition of the top prospects at various points.

The only one I'd count on to be a contributor by 2016 is Rodon, and at the same time I can easily see other holes opening as Alexei, LaRoche age. That leaves me with zero confidence, frankly. After 2016 at least you clear several contracts, but "wait for 2016 when we have 0 money to spend" is the plan, it is a poor one.

 

This team either will win this year or its going to circle 2017 for the next time it has money available.

[Reddy]

You have a lot of young players growing up in that time, plus the addition of the top prospects at various points.

take Alexei off the books, add Shark, and he becomes much more "affordable"

[caulfield12]

If this team is not a winning team in 2015, how does it become a winning team in 2016 with the team having to commit $130 million+ to keeping Samardzija?

 

 

It doesn't. You subtract Ramirez's money (putting you around $105 million) and you still have $20-25 million to play with.

 

That money shouldn't go to an overpriced 3rd starter...for the same reason $90 million hasn't gone to James Shields yet.

 

HOWEVER, if Shark proves himself to be a 2 or better, then it starts to become more justifiable based on the lesser wear and tear on his arm.

 

Of course, a LOT is also dependent on what happens with Noesi/Danks and then the development of Rodon/Montas/Danish/Beck and Adams might very well be a fast mover as well.

[Balta1701]

take Alexei off the books, add Shark, and he becomes much more "affordable"

And Tim Anderson as an incredibly raw rookie is ready to replace >3 WAR in 2016 why?

 

It's one way to do it, but its also a move for 2017. Tim Anderson is a guy we should expect to take several years to turn into a really good player if he reaches the bigs by 2016.

[Reddy]

It doesn't. You subtract Ramirez's money (putting you around $105 million) and you still have $20-25 million to play with.

 

That money shouldn't go to an overpriced 3rd starter...for the same reason $90 million hasn't gone to James Shields yet.

 

HOWEVER, if Shark proves himself to be a 2 or better, then it starts to become more justifiable based on the lesser wear and tear on his arm.

 

Of course, a LOT is also dependent on what happens with Noesi/Danks and then the development of Rodon/Montas/Danish/Beck and Adams might very well be a fast mover as well.

 

paying the money for Shark is worth it if Rodon and one of our other young guys pan out.

[Balta1701]

It doesn't. You subtract Ramirez's money (putting you around $105 million) and you still have $20-25 million to play with.

 

That money shouldn't go to an overpriced 3rd starter...for the same reason $90 million hasn't gone to James Shields yet.

 

HOWEVER, if Shark proves himself to be a 2 or better, then it starts to become more justifiable based on the lesser wear and tear on his arm.

 

Of course, a LOT is also dependent on what happens with Noesi/Danks and then the development of Rodon/Montas/Danish/Beck and Adams might very well be a fast mover as well.

And as I just said, subtracting one of the better SS in the league and replacing him with a raw rookie = I don't know why I'm spending a big contract on a pitcher after the 2015 season.

[witesoxfan]

Writer argues that Philly should take a chance on Dayan.

 

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadel...rth-it-phillies

 

I think they should too. They have money to burn and there's no commitment beyond this season and their current outfield starters are Grady Sizemore, Ben Revere, and Dominic Brown with Ryan Howard at DH. There are plenty of ABs for Viciedo on that team.

[Rowand44]

The only one I'd count on to be a contributor by 2016 is Rodon, and at the same time I can easily see other holes opening as Alexei, LaRoche age. That leaves me with zero confidence, frankly. After 2016 at least you clear several contracts, but "wait for 2016 when we have 0 money to spend" is the plan, it is a poor one.

 

This team either will win this year or its going to circle 2017 for the next time it has money available.

If they're close and the attendance takes a nice little hike which it already has, they'll spend more to get a piece or two to put them over the top.